RealGM

We gotta bring this into a single thread and stop talking about it in other threads. This has multiple benefits including not derailing those threads, and keeping Dom sane. Dom we don’t need another 13 reasons why, the first one was bad enough.

OK score of the experiment so far is 1 for me and 0 for you. Chet Holmgren had cold hands then made two in a row. Doncic, Hardaway, Gafford and Joe are in progress.

Doncic just missed his first shot since tracking began.

Holmgren just made 3 in a row his hands are hot. Tracking him for the 2nd time today.

Thanks for switching threads.

I moved the hot hand definition over here.

You can talk about hot hands all you want whether you're a coach, player, ball boy, sports psychologist, players mom, girlfriend, wife etc... It's a myth. Lots of people believe in myths. If it doesn't have predictive value it is worthless. I'm defining hot hand as any player who has made 3 shots in a row or 3 out of 4. Cold hand will have the reverse definition. I will then track their next 4 shots to see if they make or miss 3 again. If they do it will support your side. If they don't it will support mine.

Two notes.

1. Not feeding a hot hand for a long time cools it down.

2. When the team is playing poorly it tends to be contagious. Momentum is a big factor in basketball. Notice how many missed shots in a row Dallas has in the second, after making so many in the first.

Side note unrelated to this discussion. If Luka was a Wolf Gobert would never stop dunking.

winforlose wrote:Two notes.

1. Not feeding a hot hand for a long time cools it down.

2. When the team is playing poorly it tends to be contagious. Momentum is a big factor in basketball. Notice how many missed shots in a row Dallas has in the second, after making so many in the first.

Side note unrelated to this discussion. If Luka was a Wolf Gobert would never stop dunking.

More excuses. Are you ready to concede? If it's not consistent and reliable it is worthless.

Why not PM each other?

SGA has made 5 of 8, but I don't know if he's made 3 of his last 4 so unfortunately I don't know if he has a hot hand or not. By the way. OKC coming back big time.

KGdaBom wrote:

winforlose wrote:Two notes.

1. Not feeding a hot hand for a long time cools it down.

2. When the team is playing poorly it tends to be contagious. Momentum is a big factor in basketball. Notice how many missed shots in a row Dallas has in the second, after making so many in the first.

Side note unrelated to this discussion. If Luka was a Wolf Gobert would never stop dunking.

More excuses. Are you ready to concede? If it's not consistent and reliable it is worthless.

All I am doing is providing the context of what we are talking about. The term feed the hot hand exists for a reason. You’re way more into this experiment than I am.

Loaf_of_bread wrote:Why not PM each other?

Mostly because other people were talking about this.

Loaf_of_bread wrote:Why not PM each other?

We've already done that. This thread is to keep the subject in the open, but only for those who care to look.

winforlose wrote:

KGdaBom wrote:

winforlose wrote:Two notes.

1. Not feeding a hot hand for a long time cools it down.

2. When the team is playing poorly it tends to be contagious. Momentum is a big factor in basketball. Notice how many missed shots in a row Dallas has in the second, after making so many in the first.

Side note unrelated to this discussion. If Luka was a Wolf Gobert would never stop dunking.

More excuses. Are you ready to concede? If it's not consistent and reliable it is worthless.

All I am doing is providing the context of what we are talking about. The term feed the hot hand exists for a reason. You’re way more into this experiment than I am.

I think this experiment is going to massively show that Hot Hand/Cold Hand as a predictor has virtually no value.

Doncic just missed again. 2 for me 0 for you. If he misses one of his next 2 he will officially have cold hands and then I will start tracking him again.

I hope Doncic's hands get hot again. I really want Dallas to win.

Luka was 6 of 7 in the first quarter. He sat down. He shot 2 shots when he came back in. One was a double teamed heave from close to the logo just to get the 2 for 1. Does this sound like feeding the hot hand to you? Luka was passing not shooting this half. He had some sick alley oops and throw aheads. He had drive and kicks, and should have 10 dimes by now. The concept of the hot hand is based on shooting it, not dishing it. Imagine if AJ green after making 3 of 3 from deep decided not to shoot again for the rest of the half. I get what you’re trying to prove, and it does have some merit. But what you’re actually observing (ironically,) is what I always say not to do. More importantly, you are seeing not feeding the hot hand backfire on Dallas and let OKC back in the game.

Derek Jones Jr. is now 3-3. His hands are hot. Tracking him.

winforlose wrote:Luka was 6 of 7 in the first quarter. He sat down. He shot 2 shots when he came back in. One was a double teamed heave from close to the logo just to get the 2 for 1. Does this sound like feeding the hot hand to you? Luka was passing not shooting this half. He had some sick alley oops and throw aheads. He had drive and kicks, and should have 10 dimes by now. The concept of the hot hand is based on shooting it, not dishing it. Imagine if AJ green after making 3 of 3 from deep decided not to shoot again for the rest of the half. I get what you’re trying to prove, and it does have some merit. But what you’re actually observing (ironically,) is what I always say not to do. More importantly, you are seeing not feeding the hot hand backfire on Dallas and let OKC back in the game.

I'm following the hot hand definition and tracking it. You are making more excuses. Are you ready to concede it has no predictive value?

Doncic just missed again. 3 misses in a row. He officially has cold hands. Tracking now.