***The Wolves 2024 Offseason Thread***

[thinktank]

We don't have a thread for this and it is well beyond time for one (verses cramming everything under the sun into the Dillingham thread).

Do you think Connelly has done a good job this offseason?

What would you have liked to see him do differently?

Any FAs you think he should've gone after?

Any trades you think he should've made or trade targets you thought he should've gone after?

Do you think the Wolves will be better this year than last year?

Do you think our roster is maxed out and this era will be the best we'll ever be?

There is little going on in the way of news, so this is a good time to reflect.

Subtractions: SloMo, Jordan McLaughlin, Monte Morris, Wendell Moore Jr.
Additions: Dillingham, Ingles, TSJ, Dozier (Miller is kind of an addition, as is Nix, and maybe Minott too)

Current Roster:
PG: Conley / Dillingham / NAW / Nix / Dozier
SG: Ant / NAW / Ingles / TSJ / Dozier
SF: McDaniels / Ingles / TSJ / Minott
PF: KAT / Naz Reid / Miller
C: Gobert / KAT / Naz Reid / Garza / Miller

[Colbinii]

We don't have a thread for this and it is well beyond time for one (verses cramming everything under the sun into the Dillingham thread).

Do you think Connelly has done a good job this offseason?

Yeah. He stayed true to the direction he was brought into, which is maximize title odds around Anthony Edwards in the near-term. Meanwhile, the players he has drafted hit two separate areas--a younger PG prospect with high upside in Dillingham and an older wing prospect who can come in right away and contribute [in theory].

What would you have liked to see him do differently?

What was possible? Extending Gobert is one thing I would have liked to see, but my guess is Gobert was busy and out of the country for all of the summer due to the Olympics.

Any FAs you think he should've gone after?

I think he went after everyone he tried too but we are up against the 2nd Apron, had no Exceptions to use and had no starting spots to offer [Looking at you Tyus Jones].

Do you think the Wolves will be better this year than last year?

In terms of how good they were last year? Yeah. In terms of results? Uncertain, probably not. The West is better. Denver is slightly worse. Dallas is about the same. Just about every other team in the West is better besides those two and the two LA Teams.

Do you think our roster is maxed out and this era will be the best we'll ever be?

It is hard to be better than a 56-win, 6.4 SRS team. That's like Top 5-10% of all teams in NBA History. I think it is possible to better--Towns playing 65-70 games, Edwards continuing to take steps and overall improvement within the structure of the team.

[Klomp]

I brought this over from the Dillingham thread...

I think this is the biggest misconception of the second apron.

Everyone thinks we have zero ability to make any transactions. This is the same thing they thought after the Gobert trade: We're maxed out and can't get any better.

It's an insult to Tim Connelly. I think I would understand the mindset if we had Kevin McHale or Jim Stack running the show. They would spend the summer up north at the cabin. But instead, we have a front office that is constantly looking for cracks that will allow us to improve the team. I just can't see any way they remain static and just let this thing run to the ground like Calvin Booth has done in Denver.

This is true, it’s not “zero ability.” But teams are extremely limited:

1. It’s harder to afford to retain your own free agents to maintain your team. We have seen no benches in PHX and DEN series.
2. Teams lose the ability to replace their free agent losses with other FA’s without the MLE, BAE, or TPE’s from previous years.
3. You can still trade, but there are tight restrictions there as well. Teams can’t add $1 more salary, frozen pick, no cash, etc.

1. Edwards, Towns, McDaniels, Dillingham, Shannon, Miller, are all under contract for at least the next 3 seasons. That's six rotation-caliber players (you can gripe about Miller if you want, whatever). I see maybe a 0.001% chance that neither Gobert or Reid sign a new contract with the team, so there's a seventh most likely. 7 rotation-level players on the roster for the next three seasons (and most of them young and still improving).
2/3. So let's look deeper into this. Over the next three seasons, we have potential free agents Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mike Conley, Joe Ingles, Luka Garza, PJ Dozier and Josh Minott, along with one of Naz Reid or Rudy Gobert (as referenced above).

I personally see Conley playing out his contract and retiring. An asset "wasted" perhaps, but I believe we could see him transition to the coaching staff once his playing days are over (future replacement for Nori?).

As far as Alexander-Walker and one of the big men, I actually see them as potential trade chips with their current contracts. I don't know absolutes of what they could fetch on the open market, but I think they are both resources to use as we navigate the second apron. See how Bruce Brown was used as a trade chip by Indiana, for an example. For Alexander-Walker especially, his contract will make it more difficult to identify targets, but I think there are possibilities out there. And part of why I see the odds of a Gobert trade slightly ahead of the odds of a Reid trade or a Towns trade, is I see his large player option as a significant cap asset for another team, and a way for us to bring in more assets on this end because his cap number gives us more room to play with.

Ingles, Garza, Dozier and Minott are all minimum-level contracts, which we still retain or easily replace despite being over the second apron.
----
TL;DR: So to recap, we have 7 rotation-caliber players locked in place for the next three seasons, plus whatever trade(s) could net us for two other rotation pieces. After that, minimum contracts are still a possibility. That is enough to carry us through the second apron period, as the cap continues to rise and the NBA media money will change things. I don't expect the second apron to be a longterm concern. This is an issue for the next 2-3 seasons, and we have the assets in the war chest to get us through it.

So this might be our best chance for a title in this second apron window, but I don't believe it will be our only chance in Edwards' career.

[Klomp]

Plus Ant is 23.

There’s no way this is our best shot at a championship.

You say that but it happens. Wade/Kobe both won at 24 and then didnt win again until LeBron/Gasol joined.

Durant went to the Finals at 23 and didn't go back until he was with a different franchise.

Again, I think it's important to remember who is running the show.

Connelly is always aggressive. No he doesn't hit on every pick or trade or signing, but he is always aggressive, always looking for ways to improve the team.

Presti might be the most scared executive out there. Maybe it's dictated by his ownership, I'm not sure. But I have never seen someone so scared to trade away picks, and instead makes moves more centered on adding draft picks. Yes he's had a group of successful picks and team success followed. Just like the late 2000s into the early 2010s - then what happened next?! Rather than keeping the band together, they had to break apart a young Finals team for money reasons. So I understand why people are so excited for this current OKC group, but payday is coming soon and how much will they be willing to pay?

[Domejandro]

On paper, the team is worse than they were last year, but hopefully internal improvement makes up for it.

[Klomp]

On paper, the team is worse than they were last year, but hopefully internal improvement makes up for it.

Im not sure if I'd go that far, though it might look that way by the end of the season with an even more congested West and young guys acclimating to a system.

When you really break it down, we swapped out Kyle Anderson and Jordan McLaughlin for Rob Dillingham, Terrence Shannon and Joe Ingles. Anderson and McLaughlin were at the back end of the bench rotation and served as more emergency options, not really integral pieces. Yes, an emergency happened with Towns' injuries, prompting more playing time for Anderson, but he wasn't really an integral piece for most of the season.

Someone might say guys are a year older, referring to Gobert and Conley in a negative way, but the same could be said about Edwards and many others in a positive light.

[shrink]

1. Edwards, Towns, McDaniels, Dillingham, Shannon, Miller, are all under contract for at least the next 3 seasons. That's six rotation-caliber players (you can gripe about Miller if you want, whatever).

Did Summer League guarantee to you that all three are NBA-level rotation players?

Rookies are almost never positive players their first year.

[shrink]

On paper, the team is worse than they were last year, but hopefully internal improvement makes up for it.

You’re right, on paper, but that internal improvement could be so overwhelming. Both Ant and McDaniels have a lot they could add, and I never bet against Naz coming back significantly better. I was also impressed with Towns making some improvement with some of the issues that have plagued him (defensively and not arguing with refs), so he could have a better season too.

Also, MIN may gain a lot of benefit from continuity, bringing back its top 7 players, another year with the same coach, etc.

I expect the team to be better this year, but they are definitely shallower, and unlike last year, an injury to Mike Conley could be crippling.

[Klomp]

1. Edwards, Towns, McDaniels, Dillingham, Shannon, Miller, are all under contract for at least the next 3 seasons. That's six rotation-caliber players (you can gripe about Miller if you want, whatever).

Did Summer League guarantee to you that all three are NBA-level rotation players?

Rookies are almost never positive players their first year.

Someone doesn't have to be a "positive player" to be an NBA-level rotation player.....unless you don't believe negative-VORP Jaden McDaniels is an NBA-level rotation player, that is....

[thinktank]

1. Edwards, Towns, McDaniels, Dillingham, Shannon, Miller, are all under contract for at least the next 3 seasons. That's six rotation-caliber players (you can gripe about Miller if you want, whatever).

Did Summer League guarantee to you that all three are NBA-level rotation players?

Rookies are almost never positive players their first year.

That is categorically false. Quite a few rookies are positive players in their first year. Last year, for example:

Wemby
Holmgren
Lively
Brandon Miller
Podz
Jacquez Jr
Cam Whitmore
Cason Wallace
Amen Thompson
GG Jackson

That's 10 players, or 33% of the first round (might be a second rounder in there but you can also look at it shorter or longer than first round--first round is just an arbitrary guage), who could've contributed positively on our team last year. You can throw metrics at it, but they'd have been playing important minutes for us if we had any of these guys.

It happens every year and second year players contribute even more, as one would assume.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

I think we will be better than last year for few reasons :

- New players may be better than the one gone, specially considering how Slomo had a terrible year on offensive side.
- Youngs guys will keep improving and i expect more consistency from Ant and Jaden

The only reasons why we could be worse are ages ( Rudy and Mike) or injury ( KAT or another).

I am a bit worry with Rudy who really slow down at PO time and during Olympics games. Hopefully it's just temporary and he come back with full energy once season started
Not worry too much for Mike, he will be the same he was this year.
KAT has to stay healthy as well.

Last things I'm concerned is management. We burn way too much energy last year fighting for top spot and we run out of gas against Dallas. Hope this year, load management is more smart. Go Wolves !

[minimus]

1. Edwards, Towns, McDaniels, Dillingham, Shannon, Miller, are all under contract for at least the next 3 seasons. That's six rotation-caliber players (you can gripe about Miller if you want, whatever).

Did Summer League guarantee to you that all three are NBA-level rotation players?

Rookies are almost never positive players their first year.

While technically TSJ is a rookie, he is 24yo. He is older than Edwards and McDaniels. He played like 24yo player in SL, it was evident. And speaking of SL while it should never be considered as guarantee, but I have high hopes for Nix as our 3rd string PG. You can say that players rarely have breakout year after playing so badly in previous NBA seasons, but I believe he is a perfect fit: big, strong. can hit open three, has bulldog mentality in defense. I feel like he can have similar to NAW story, who also was playing bad in NOP and UTA, but earned his minutes in MIN.

[Biff Cooper]

We need to stay away from multi-week injuries to Ant, Towns, Gobert, Conley, McDaniels, Reid, and NAW. If we do, I am expecting us to have a better regular season than last year. They all should be a lot more familiar with each other now than they were at the beginning of last season, and that continuity should really be helpful.

We will be giving Dillingham PT to help him develop as our 8th guy. I liked the PG growth I saw in him from the 1st SL game to the last one. He probably will not be great the first half of the year, but I have hope that he can at least offensively play within the team scheme, and develop on the fly without forcing us to sacrifice games.

[thinktank]

Injuries are always the top concern for any NBA team that’s not tanking. We were pretty gosh darn healthy last year, but being available to play is a skill, and I hope, like everyone, that the trend of being healthy continues.

[Calinks]

On paper, the team is worse than they were last year, but hopefully internal improvement makes up for it.

Eh, I think we will take a step back. Kyle will be missed he did a lot of little things for us and was kind of a coach on the floor. I don't know if our rookies will be able to contribute that much. Only way I see us taking a step forward would be some major growth from Ant or major growth in the role that Towns plays in this offense.

If somehow Towns can play offense like he did when Saunders was coaching, that would take us to the next level. I don't know if he can with Rudy out there at the 5.

The only other way I could see us being better is if our rookies are just a lot better than the should be, like the are significant contributed and impact players and that doesn't happen often where they are drafted.

[Colbinii]

1. Edwards, Towns, McDaniels, Dillingham, Shannon, Miller, are all under contract for at least the next 3 seasons. That's six rotation-caliber players (you can gripe about Miller if you want, whatever).

Did Summer League guarantee to you that all three are NBA-level rotation players?

Rookies are almost never positive players their first year.

That is categorically false. Quite a few rookies are positive players in their first year. Last year, for example:

Wemby
Holmgren
Lively
Brandon Miller
Podz
Jacquez Jr
Cam Whitmore
Cason Wallace
Amen Thompson
GG Jackson

That's 10 players, or 33% of the first round (might be a second rounder in there but you can also look at it shorter or longer than first round--first round is just an arbitrary guage), who could've contributed positively on our team last year. You can throw metrics at it, but they'd have been playing important minutes for us if we had any of these guys.

It happens every year and second year players contribute even more, as one would assume.

Trayce Jackson-Davis (23 year-old rookie)

I would have GG and Brandon Miller as clearly negative players in terms of impacting winning.

[minimus]

On paper, the team is worse than they were last year, but hopefully internal improvement makes up for it.

Eh, I think we will take a step back. Kyle will be missed he did a lot of little things for us and was kind of a coach on the floor. I don't know if our rookies will be able to contribute that much. Only way I see us taking a step forward would be some major growth from Ant or major growth in the role that Towns plays in this offense.

If somehow Towns can play offense like he did when Saunders was coaching, that would take us to the next level. I don't know if he can with Rudy out there at the 5.

The only other way I could see us being better is if our rookies are just a lot better than the should be, like the are significant contributed and impact players and that doesn't happen often where they are drafted.

I feel like we already had a lot of talent last season. IMO the biggest factors for success this season will be continuity and chemistry. Speaking of continuity, having same coaching staff, same player core is foundation for success because we have young players that still improve. I mean two years ago Naz could defend at all, last year he was not a weak link in defense even in playoffs.

With regard of chemistry, I think we should view our TSJ and Rob addition from this view point, because both are players who not only have talent, but also are good fit. They are kind rare of example of both BPA and best fit draft selection.

Read on Twitter

[shrink]

1. Edwards, Towns, McDaniels, Dillingham, Shannon, Miller, are all under contract for at least the next 3 seasons. That's six rotation-caliber players (you can gripe about Miller if you want, whatever).

Did Summer League guarantee to you that all three are NBA-level rotation players?

Rookies are almost never positive players their first year.

While technically TSJ is a rookie, he is 24yo. He is older than Edwards and McDaniels. He played like 24yo player in SL, it was evident. And speaking of SL while it should never be considered as guarantee, but I have high hopes for Nix as our 3rd string PG. You can say that players rarely have breakout year after playing so badly in previous NBA seasons, but I believe he is a perfect fit: big, strong. can hit open three, has bulldog mentality in defense. I feel like he can have similar to NAW story, who also was playing bad in NOP and UTA, but earned his minutes in MIN.

I just thought I’d point out that in RealGM’s Northwest Preview podcast, despite an overall flattering view of the Wolves next season, one of the biggest concerns from the three independent experts was whether Minnesota could put 240 quality minutes of play on the floor every game (48 x 5). I trust our top seven, and last year, Anderson was an eighth player.

I think we are being overly optimistic if we are labeling rookies as “rotation-caliber.”

https://basketball.realgm.com/news/wiretap/tags/100/RealGM-Radio

[Klomp]

Warning: The contents of this post are likely to trigger some individuals.

For those who are worried about playing Dillingham too much, I wouldn't rule out one of Joe Ingles or PJ Dozier turning into a steady, reliable option throughout the season, in times where Dillingham might be struggling or hitting a rookie wall. Most notably, I wanted to bring up Dozier.

I think the only memory some people have of PJ Dozier is of him in 2022-23, when he was a fringe roster guy here in training camp and played the bulk of the season in Iowa before getting a couple 10-days with Sacramento. And since that's the last we've seen of him in America, people assume his NBA game is cooked a la Wendell Moore. But we need to remember that he had ACL surgery in December 2021. He was still coming back from that surgery when we last saw him. In Denver, he had carved out a really nice role for himself before that ACL injury. Injuries are always going to be an issue for him, but when he was healthy and played over a 3-season stretch from 2019-22, he was a guy Denver trusted to log solid minutes on a roster that still had solid depth at that time. On that 2020-21 roster, his playing time and production were quite comparable to Monte Morris', who is a year older.

It's obviously not the tell-all statistic, but I think this is an interesting breakdowns of Denver's records with and without them each in that 2020-21 season:
With PJ Dozier: 36-14 (.720)
Without PJ Dozier: 11-11 (.500)
With Monte Morris: 30-17 (.638)
Without Monte Morris: 17-8 (.680)

I think it's also worth noting that he has a really nice rapport and relationship with Nikola Jokic.

Read on Twitter

In Serbia this past year, he was mostly a starter on a very good Partizan team. He was their primary playmaker, which sounds like something that definitely appealed to Connelly and Finch when they were looking at their options in free agency.

Read on Twitter

[thinktank]

Did Summer League guarantee to you that all three are NBA-level rotation players?

Rookies are almost never positive players their first year.

That is categorically false. Quite a few rookies are positive players in their first year. Last year, for example:

Wemby
Holmgren
Lively
Brandon Miller
Podz
Jacquez Jr
Cam Whitmore
Cason Wallace
Amen Thompson
GG Jackson

That's 10 players, or 33% of the first round (might be a second rounder in there but you can also look at it shorter or longer than first round--first round is just an arbitrary guage), who could've contributed positively on our team last year. You can throw metrics at it, but they'd have been playing important minutes for us if we had any of these guys.

It happens every year and second year players contribute even more, as one would assume.

Trayce Jackson-Davis (23 year-old rookie)

I would have GG and Brandon Miller as clearly negative players in terms of impacting winning.

There’s more guys who contribute than my list.

A rookie not being able to impact a tanking team’s winning does not mean that rookie wouldn’t contribute to a winning team.

If Dilly turns out to be good, or if the Wolves were lucky enough to land guys like GG or B Miller (TSJ?), the Wolves would be MOST FORTUNATE to have them, even in their rookie years.