Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[Domejandro]

Continued from the thread below.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=2356135

[Klomp]

Great thread title! I was considering making the new thread, but was drawing blanks on the title.

[Domejandro]

Great thread title! I was considering making the new thread, but was drawing blanks on the title.

If Minnesota is sub-.500 by midseason, it will be updated to "Midseason Meltdown Edition".

[TimberKat]

Randle, Randle, and Randle

[Norseman79]

Love seeing Randle build his trade value.

[cupcakesnake]

Randle, Randle, and Randle

If the rest of the league sees Randle the same way we do (the source of all our problems), we're not getting value back in that trade.

He's semi expiring, but I don't see a potential trade partner looking to crack open. It's a different league these days. It's also not out of the question Randle opts in if he can't find his next big contract in the offseason.

On the other hand, it seems there's always a trade partner that wants to scoop a big name or talent currently perceived as a problematic fit in their current situation. I could see Miami, LAC, Dallas, or Denver talking themselves into Randle. Miami especially might believe they can make him play defense.

But what do we want? With Miami it would be Rozier or Duncan Robinson. Can't see LA giving up Norm Powell. Denver doesn't have the contracts. Dallas would have to combine too many useful players (Klay, Gafford, etc) for it to be worth it for them.

[Klomp]

Randle, Randle, and Randle

If the rest of the league sees Randle the same way we do (the source of all our problems), we're not getting value back in that trade.

He's semi expiring, but I don't see a potential trade partner looking to crack open. It's a different league these days. It's also not out of the question Randle opts in if he can't find his next big contract in the offseason.

On the other hand, it seems there's always a trade partner that wants to scoop a big name or talent currently perceived as a problematic fit in their current situation. I could see Miami, LAC, Dallas, or Denver talking themselves into Randle. Miami especially might believe they can make him play defense.

But what do we want? With Miami it would be Rozier or Duncan Robinson. Can't see LA giving up Norm Powell. Denver doesn't have the contracts. Dallas would have to combine too many useful players (Klay, Gafford, etc) for it to be worth it for them.

I do think there will be more suitors than people might expect. I think especially in the play-in races. While he might not be an ideal midseason addition due to a potential adjustment period, I think that the name power and accolades while not completely killing the books longterm could be seen as positives for a team.

Charlotte has been mentioned as an option, though I don't think a two-team trade would get us what we want. A third team might be able to get it done though.

[cupcakesnake]

Randle, Randle, and Randle

If the rest of the league sees Randle the same way we do (the source of all our problems), we're not getting value back in that trade.

He's semi expiring, but I don't see a potential trade partner looking to crack open. It's a different league these days. It's also not out of the question Randle opts in if he can't find his next big contract in the offseason.

On the other hand, it seems there's always a trade partner that wants to scoop a big name or talent currently perceived as a problematic fit in their current situation. I could see Miami, LAC, Dallas, or Denver talking themselves into Randle. Miami especially might believe they can make him play defense.

But what do we want? With Miami it would be Rozier or Duncan Robinson. Can't see LA giving up Norm Powell. Denver doesn't have the contracts. Dallas would have to combine too many useful players (Klay, Gafford, etc) for it to be worth it for them.

I do think there will be more suitors than people might expect. I think especially in the play-in races. While he might not be an ideal midseason addition due to a potential adjustment period, I think that the name power and accolades while not completely killing the books longterm could be seen as positives for a team.

Charlotte has been mentioned as an option, though I don't think a two-team trade would get us what we want. A third team might be able to get it done though.

Functionally, Randle does give you a large, strong body who can drive and make plays. He gives you real rim pressure, can collapse the defense a little, and get to the line. I've always felt (long before he was a Wolfy), that he could be a real problem on a team with lots of spacing that needs rim pressure (he would kill it in Boston, Golden State, or even Charlotte maybe).

If I was another GM though, I'm not ignoring that defense. It's nothing subtle to replace Karl-Anthony Towns (one of the worst defensive reputations amongst NBA bigs) and stand out as an achilles heel on defense. Getting to play with Gobert is supposed to protect you from your bad defense, but Randle has found ways to make sure there's no covering for him.

My concern is an interested play-in team trying to get over the hump, will want Randle's offense but be justifiably concerned that any offense he's provided is more than off-set by how badly he will tank your defense. It's a very bad look for him, and it's hard not to watch the games and find the numbers match the tape.

[Klomp]

If I was another GM though, I'm not ignoring that defense. It's nothing subtle to replace Karl-Anthony Towns (one of the worst defensive reputations amongst NBA bigs) and stand out as an achilles heel on defense. Getting to play with Gobert is supposed to protect you from your bad defense, but Randle has found ways to make sure there's no covering for him.

My concern is an interested play-in team trying to get over the hump, will want Randle's offense but be justifiably concerned that any offense he's provided is more than off-set by how badly he will tank your defense. It's a very bad look for him, and it's hard not to watch the games and find the numbers match the tape.

That might be why Charlotte could be one of the better fits. Right or wrong strategy, they are building their franchise on offense and really not much else. Randle can help that. He can be a veteran for younger pros like Ball and Miller.

To CHA: Randle
To DET: Bridges, Richards
To MIN: Stewart, filler

Read on Twitter

[cmoss84]

I keep trying to find a way to land Cade Cunningham...we can now combine players in a trade, correct?
(From Hoops Rumors):

The “poison pill provision” applies when a team extends a player’s rookie scale contract, then trades him before the extension officially takes effect. It’s a rare situation, but it features its own set of rules, since extensions following rookie contracts often create a large gap between a player’s current and future salaries.

For salary-matching purposes, if a player is traded between the time his rookie contract is extended and the following July 1 (when that extension takes effect), the player’s incoming value for the receiving team is the average of his current-year salary and the annual salary in each year of his extension.

His current team, on the other hand, simply treats his current-year salary as the outgoing figure for matching purposes.

Can you salary cap savvies help me out here? Would this work?
MN in: Cade ($38???), Isaiah Stewart ($15)
MN out: Randle ($33), Jaden ($23) RD (6) Minott ($2)

Save ($11???)

PG: Cade, Mike, NAW, DD
SG: Ant, DD, NAW
SF: DD, TSJ, Naz, NAW
PF: Naz, Stewart, Miller
C: Rudy, Naz, Garza

[Mattya]

We don't have the assets to trade for a star that doesn't have depreciated value from and injury or something like that. Zion or Paul George are the only guys I could see being available for something we could offer.

[shrink]

Can you salary cap savvies help me out here? Would this work?
MN in: Cade ($30???), Isaiah Stewart ($15)
MN out: Randle ($33), Jaden ($23) RD (6) Minott ($2)

Cade’s incoming salary to us would be his new extension money at $38.6 mil. Unfortunately, since we are an apron team, we can’t aggregate salary, or take back more money than we send out. This means we can’t make a trade for a player making more than Randle here, so Cade is off the table.

[cmoss84]

damn you poison pill!

[cmoss84]

Here's the next 40 or so after Randle after I weeded out as many as I could. See anything you like?

47. Immanuel Quickley $32,500,000 $32,500,000 $32,500,000 $32,500,000
48. Khris Middleton $31,666,667 $34,012,345 $0 $0
51. Jerami Grant $29,793,104 $32,000,001 $34,206,898 $36,413,790
57. Nicolas Claxton $27,556,817 $25,352,272 $23,147,727 $20,943,184
58. Miles Bridges $27,173,913 $25,000,000 $22,826,087 $0
59. John Collins $26,580,000 $26,580,000 $0 $0
61. Anfernee Simons $25,892,857 $27,678,571 $0 $0
62. RJ Barrett $25,794,643 $27,705,357 $29,616,071 $0
64. Jaren Jackson Jr $25,257,798 $23,413,395 $0 $0
65. Jonathan Isaac $25,000,000 $15,000,000 $14,500,000 $14,500,000
67. Terry Rozier $24,924,126 $26,643,031 $0 $0
69. Kyle Kuzma $23,522,727 $21,477,272 $19,431,819 $0
70. DeMar DeRozan $23,400,000 $24,570,000 $25,740,000 $0
73. Brook Lopez $23,000,000 $0 $0 $0
73. Bruce Brown $23,000,000 $0 $0 $0
77. Cameron Johnson $22,500,000 $20,543,478 $22,500,000 $0
77. Malcolm Brogdon $22,500,000 $0 $0 $0
79. Clint Capela $22,265,280 $0 $0 $
81. De'Andre Hunter $21,696,429 $23,303,571 $24,910,714 $0
82. Lonzo Ball $21,395,348 $0 $0 $0
83. Marcus Smart $20,210,285 $21,586,856 $0 $0
85. Nikola Vucevic $20,000,000 $21,481,481 $0 $0
87. Myles Turner $19,928,500 $0 $0 $0
88. Jakob Poeltl $19,500,000 $19,500,000 $19,500,000 $0
89. Duncan Robinson $19,406,000 $19,888,000 $0 $0
91. Bojan Bogdanovic $19,032,850 $0 $0 $0
92. Keldon Johnson $19,000,000 $17,500,000 $17,500,000 $0
94. Collin Sexton $18,350,000 $19,175,000 $0 $0
96. Jusuf Nurkic $18,125,000 $19,375,000 $0 $0
97. Harrison Barnes $18,000,000 $19,000,000 $0 $0
97. Patrick Williams $18,000,000 $18,000,000 $18,000,000 $18,000,000
100. Bogdan Bogdanovic $17,260,000 $16,020,000 $16,020,000 $0
101. Rui Hachimura $17,000,000 $18,259,259 $0 $0
102. Kevin Huerter $16,830,357 $17,991,071 $0 $0
103. Zach Collins $16,741,200 $18,080,496 $0 $0
104. Caris LeVert $16,615,384 $0 $0 $0
105. Luguentz Dort $16,500,000 $17,722,222 $17,722,222 $0
108. Deni Avdija $15,625,000 $14,375,000 $13,125,000 $11,875,000

[TimberKat]

If the rest of the league sees Randle the same way we do (the source of all our problems), we're not getting value back in that trade.

He's semi expiring, but I don't see a potential trade partner looking to crack open. It's a different league these days. It's also not out of the question Randle opts in if he can't find his next big contract in the offseason.

On the other hand, it seems there's always a trade partner that wants to scoop a big name or talent currently perceived as a problematic fit in their current situation. I could see Miami, LAC, Dallas, or Denver talking themselves into Randle. Miami especially might believe they can make him play defense.

But what do we want? With Miami it would be Rozier or Duncan Robinson. Can't see LA giving up Norm Powell. Denver doesn't have the contracts. Dallas would have to combine too many useful players (Klay, Gafford, etc) for it to be worth it for them.

I do think there will be more suitors than people might expect. I think especially in the play-in races. While he might not be an ideal midseason addition due to a potential adjustment period, I think that the name power and accolades while not completely killing the books longterm could be seen as positives for a team.

Charlotte has been mentioned as an option, though I don't think a two-team trade would get us what we want. A third team might be able to get it done though.

Functionally, Randle does give you a large, strong body who can drive and make plays. He gives you real rim pressure, can collapse the defense a little, and get to the line. I've always felt (long before he was a Wolfy), that he could be a real problem on a team with lots of spacing that needs rim pressure (he would kill it in Boston, Golden State, or even Charlotte maybe).

If I was another GM though, I'm not ignoring that defense. It's nothing subtle to replace Karl-Anthony Towns (one of the worst defensive reputations amongst NBA bigs) and stand out as an achilles heel on defense. Getting to play with Gobert is supposed to protect you from your bad defense, but Randle has found ways to make sure there's no covering for him.

My concern is an interested play-in team trying to get over the hump, will want Randle's offense but be justifiably concerned that any offense he's provided is more than off-set by how badly he will tank your defense. It's a very bad look for him, and it's hard not to watch the games and find the numbers match the tape.

All I want for Christmas is another all star next to Ant. If that means trade Randle, Naz, JMcD, or whoever, so be it. I bang my head on the wall so many times, and still can't come up with a good Randle trade. Maybe just need him to play the Lakers every night.

[Danimals]

I don’t see any realistic path to a championship this year. I think we need to accept it’s a step back and develop our young guys this year. I actually don’t see any path to a future championship without hitting a grand slam on internal development. As much as people have claimed we gained “flexibility “ in the Kat trade, it’s not the kind of flexibility that will let us target another All NBA player. We have no assets and no cap space. I’d like us to trade Randle for another younger, cheaper front court rotation player and a pick. Can we get Jalen Smith and the Portland pick from Chicago? It’s turning out to have been a nightmare trade.

[Klomp]

I don’t see any realistic path to a championship this year. I think we need to accept it’s a step back and develop our young guys this year. I actually don’t see any path to a future championship without hitting a grand slam on internal development. As much as people have claimed we gained “flexibility “ in the Kat trade, it’s not the kind of flexibility that will let us target another All NBA player. We have no assets and no cap space. I’d like us to trade Randle for another younger, cheaper front court rotation player and a pick. Can we get Jalen Smith and the Portland pick from Chicago? It’s turning out to have been a nightmare trade.

I think people are overreacting to the fact that we aren't winning games.

We took a similar step back immediately after the Rudy Gobert trade, but that didn't mean that the deal was a nightmare trade as a result. Though again similarly, people were begging for Gobert to be traded, Finch to be fired, Connelly to be fired, etc.

[winforlose]

I don’t see any realistic path to a championship this year. I think we need to accept it’s a step back and develop our young guys this year. I actually don’t see any path to a future championship without hitting a grand slam on internal development. As much as people have claimed we gained “flexibility “ in the Kat trade, it’s not the kind of flexibility that will let us target another All NBA player. We have no assets and no cap space. I’d like us to trade Randle for another younger, cheaper front court rotation player and a pick. Can we get Jalen Smith and the Portland pick from Chicago? It’s turning out to have been a nightmare trade.

I think people are overreacting to the fact that we aren't winning games.

We took a similar step back immediately after the Rudy Gobert trade, but that didn't mean that the deal was a nightmare trade as a result. Though again similarly, people were begging for Gobert to be traded, Finch to be fired, Connelly to be fired, etc.

3 key differences

1. At the time we traded for Gobert we had time on our side. We had not been a frequent tax team, nor did we need to worry about the 2nd apron. The changes work very significantly against us and while the window might be open beyond this season, our options are limited due to the severe penalties of the new CBA.

2. Karl had major issues that year. He came into camp way under weight after a massive infection took a toll on him. Then he went on to get hurt before being able to work himself back into basketball shape. Also, remember Dlo was not gelling with Rudy and was in a contract year. This put our FO in a bind. They later resolved that bind by creating another. We traded Dlo for Mike and NAW (it worked out well,) but created a situation where our starting PG was quite old and we had limited options to get a PG of the future. A decision which cost us a very lightly protected pick swap in 2030 and an unprotected first in 2031. That doesn’t sound like much, but the cupboard was already pretty empty, now it dangerously so.

3. The Ant window was far away and the KAT/Gobert window was just opening. Now Gobert is 32 turning 33 this season. While it is true much of our team is young and a new generation of talent will take center stage, it doesn’t feel like we have the time to waste the current one, especially with the CBA issues. It will be hard to acquire the level of talent to replace the level of talent we let age out or trade away. Rudy, Mike, and Karl are essentially being replaced by Miller, Dilly, and Naz. I am not sure I am as confident in that given that Ant is showing the same character flaws in year 5 as in year one.

To summarize, the CBA, the player situation, and the timing are worse this time around. Plus we have less resources to fix it.

P.S. T.C signed bad players this season (Jingles isn’t even dressing anymore, PJ Dozier isn’t NBA worthy, and Luka is a 3rd string C for a team that has no 2nd string C.) His drafting has yet to produce a rotation player, and I doubt Dilly will be playoff ready this season. Gaps at PG and C undermine my faith in him, and it should undermine yours. Especially after the disastrous KAT trade.

[Danimals]

I don’t see any realistic path to a championship this year. I think we need to accept it’s a step back and develop our young guys this year. I actually don’t see any path to a future championship without hitting a grand slam on internal development. As much as people have claimed we gained “flexibility “ in the Kat trade, it’s not the kind of flexibility that will let us target another All NBA player. We have no assets and no cap space. I’d like us to trade Randle for another younger, cheaper front court rotation player and a pick. Can we get Jalen Smith and the Portland pick from Chicago? It’s turning out to have been a nightmare trade.

I think people are overreacting to the fact that we aren't winning games.

We took a similar step back immediately after the Rudy Gobert trade, but that didn't mean that the deal was a nightmare trade as a result. Though again similarly, people were begging for Gobert to be traded, Finch to be fired, Connelly to be fired, etc.

I didn’t hate the Gobert trade. I thought it was a slight overpay and I would have preferred to target a PF and kept Kat at center. Trading a bunch of junk contracts and picks for one of the best defensive players of all time, without give up either of our best players in not comparable downgrading from Kat to Randle. And it is a large downgrade in talent. The counting stats may be similar but defensive effort and offensive efficiency are not. Not to mention the loss of Kat’s upbeat, lift each other up personality. It was not a good trade. It closed one window. I’d love to be proven wrong, but I doubt I will be.

[Norseman79]

In the, "how fast can I piss them off" category, how about Randle for Jordan Poole? Randle definitely opts out, saves Washington money for them to fix some mistakes and build appropriately. Poole, well, he could be very interesting next to Ant. Fire away....

Side note, DD to Houston for Jabari Smith Jr straight up works too....just saying....

PG - Poole, Conley, Rob
SG - Ant, Naw
SF - McDaniels, Minott
PF - Smith, Reid, Miller
C. - Rudy, Garza