Wolves Salary goals moving forward

[winforlose]

I think the fan base has different visions of what the next few years look like, and I think having a thread to talk about it makes sense.

While it is possible that we move out of the 2nd apron this season, I don’t expect that to happen. We were not a tax team in either of the last 2 years. This means we can afford one more year in the tax without repeater penalties. Or we can take next year off the tax, and then afford a year of tax in 26/27 instead.

If we assume that some tax is okay that means no share of the tax coming our way, plus increased payroll costs. Going down this road begs the next question, 1st apron, 2nd apron, or no apron? If we want to be a tax team, but with a small bill, we have some options. If we are willing to be under the first apron we have the full MLE. If we are willing to be over the first apron we have tax payer MLE. The second apron offers no MLE. The 2nd apron also spikes future draft picks after 2 years, and prevents the use of trade exemptions other than those generated this season.

When talking about our long term plans we need to factor in tax or no tax. Repeater tax years. Apron or no apron, and if Apron, which apron and for how long?

[Klomp]

The repeater tax isn't necessarily the problem. The bigger issue teams are avoiding are the repeater second apron penalties.

We are in the second apron this year, I don't see that changing. I do think they will try to avoid it in 2025-26, which lines up with the accumulated "contract outs" on the team. They'll probably pay luxury tax, but stay below the second apron.

[winforlose]

The repeater tax isn't necessarily the problem. The bigger issue teams are avoiding are the repeater second apron penalties.

We are in the second apron this year, I don't see that changing. I do think they will try to avoid it in 2025-26, which lines up with the accumulated "contract outs" on the team. They'll probably pay luxury tax, but stay below the second apron.

The issue with the repeater tax is it adds one dollar to the multiplier. Let’s say we are 5 million over, the tax payment is $1.50 + $1 =$2.50. $2.50 x & 5,000,000 = $12,500,000.00. That is on top of not getting the percentage of other teams payments.

[wolves_89]

A few thoughts on the Wolves future salary.

- I fully expect the Wolves to stay in the 2nd apron this season

- I would bet that the Wolves stay a little under the 2nd apron next season ($207.8M). The only big question I see is what happens with Randle. If he opts out next season everything falls into place. If he opts in then we would have to move him while only taking back $15-20M in salary if we want to re-sign Naz and Naw.

- I think that 2026-27 is a bit more uncertain. We will be getting hit by the repeater luxury tax which is going to be a bit more painful starting next season (~$10-15M over is going up to $5.50, ~$15-20M will be $6.75, and $20+M starts at $7.25). With the luxury tax line for 2026-27 sitting around $206.7M I would guess we end somewhere in the range of $205-216M in salary. If we re-sign Naz and NAW the Wolves would have Dillingham, Edwards, McDaniels, Reid, Gobert, DiVincenzo, NAW, Shannon, and Miller under contract while still being around $30M under the tax line. Add a re-signed Minott and a couple of 1st round picks (Detroit pick plus a pick in 2026) and Minnesota would have 12 players under contract while still being around $10-15M under the tax.

[TheZachAttack]

A few thoughts on the Wolves future salary.

- I fully expect the Wolves to stay in the 2nd apron this season

- I would bet that the Wolves stay a little under the 2nd apron next season ($207.8M). The only big question I see is what happens with Randle. If he opts out next season everything falls into place. If he opts in then we would have to move him while only taking back $15-20M in salary if we want to re-sign Naz and Naw.

- I think that 2026-27 is a bit more uncertain. We will be getting hit by the repeater luxury tax which is going to be a bit more painful starting next season (~$10-15M over is going up to $5.50, ~$15-20M will be $6.75, and $20+M starts at $7.25). With the luxury tax line for 2026-27 sitting around $206.7M I would guess we end somewhere in the range of $205-216M in salary. If we re-sign Naz and NAW the Wolves would have Dillingham, Edwards, McDaniels, Reid, Gobert, DiVincenzo, NAW, Shannon, and Miller under contract while still being around $30M under the tax line. Add a re-signed Minott and a couple of 1st round picks (Detroit pick plus a pick in 2026) and Minnesota would have 12 players under contract while still being around $10-15M under the tax.

This is where I landed as well. Conley’s mid-level comes off 26-27. I don’t see the Wolves resigning Minott unless he flashes more than he has. I think he’s relatively redundant with Shannon. Maybe if he’s cheap and just as a capable end of bench guy.

I think the biggest thing is getting off Randle so we can create more flexibility in our rotation to develop players. I don’t think there’s really any cap issues… the only issue is that without Randle it’s hard to see the Wolves developing a 2nd star.

You have to hope that Rob can get to the Garland/Herro range and/or you really hit on one of those FRPs.

If McDaniels can continue to do more power forward things and develop his shooting somewhat maybe there’s eventually a path to trade McDaniels and Gobert’s expiring.

I think the Cavs have to be the Wolves model.

[younggunsmn]

I think the fan base has different visions of what the next few years look like, and I think having a thread to talk about it makes sense.

While it is possible that we move out of the 2nd apron this season, I don’t expect that to happen. We were not a tax team in either of the last 2 years. This means we can afford one more year in the tax without repeater penalties. Or we can take next year off the tax, and then afford a year of tax in 26/27 instead.

If we assume that some tax is okay that means no share of the tax coming our way, plus increased payroll costs. Going down this road begs the next question, 1st apron, 2nd apron, or no apron? If we want to be a tax team, but with a small bill, we have some options. If we are willing to be under the first apron we have the full MLE. If we are willing to be over the first apron we have tax payer MLE. The second apron offers no MLE. The 2nd apron also spikes future draft picks after 2 years, and prevents the use of trade exemptions other than those generated this season.

When talking about our long term plans we need to factor in tax or no tax. Repeater tax years. Apron or no apron, and if Apron, which apron and for how long?

I put it at about 10% chance that we pay one dollar of luxury tax in 25-26 or 26-27, and probably beyond.
The Region Sports Network financial situation is also a ticking time bomb.
I expect what happened to the Twins financial situation when that bomb when off to affect the Wolves similarly.

If the team continues on its current trajectory this season, I can see the entire front office cleaned out once the ownership mess is sorted out and the new GM trying like mad to get off of the Rudy Gobert and (maybe) Jaden McDaniels contracts and build a team better suited for Ant.

The only way we dip below the 2nd apron this season is if we find a favorable salary dump trade for Julius Randle.