timberwolves up 3-1, but getting outplayed

[Greenbolt90]

timberwolves destroyed the lakers in game 1

since then i feel like the lakers have very solidly outplayed the timberwolves on both ends and should honestly be up 3-1 themselves imo

it starts with the primary creators. as great of a scorer and as improved of a playmaker as Ant is, he's still solidly behind Luka as a scorer and is nowhere near the playmaker. and then LeBron >>> Randle

these disparities only become amplified when you throw in the fact that the lakers have much better spacing than the timberwolves, making it easier for Luka/LeBron to operate

the lakers have alternated between helping and not helping on Ant. the thing is, as great as Ant has become, he still isn't to the point where he can consistently exert major impact in either scenario

Ant has the incredible 3pt shot now and the slashing, but an iffy free throw rate, poor finishing in traffic, terrible midrange shooting, and inconsistent off-ball movement hold back his efficiency, particularly when surrounded by poor spacing

we can rightfully marvel at Ant's ever-growing scoring repertoire and be perpetually encouraged by all of the positive signs of crazy potential he's continually showing, while still realizing that Ant hasn't quite reached the incredibly high threshold of scoring caliber that's required to sufficiently carry a playoff offense against an elite team with consistency. the reality of things is that outside of his spectacular game 4 Ant for the series is averaging 23 points per 36 on 52% true shooting (league average is 58%). which is a big part of the reason why the timberwolves offense has been so bad in this series

then if you double Ant, he often struggles to find the open man and with making high leverage passes. teams usually pay no tax at all when doubling Ant. he's improved significantly when it comes to drive-and-kicks, but if you double him early like the lakers often have been then he can struggle

on the other hand, Randle checks every playmaking box. if you make him a playmaker he'll capitalize all day. but Randle doesn't have the adequate scoring. and the lakers are one of the few teams who haven't helped on Randle drives and have forced him to be a scorer

meanwhile, on the other side Luka has invariably burned the timberwolves regardless of what defense they throw at him. he's killing them in single coverage and he's killing them when they double him. Luka just has a ridiculously good scoring/playmaking package. we're talking a top 5 all-time offensive peak. and then what LeBron gives you on top of that is just gravy

so the lakers have a much better offensive foundation than the timberwolves just due to the difference of key personnel

then layered on top of that are the timberwolves' tactical errors:

-i don't think the timberwolves have doubled Luka nearly often enough. he's proven over and over again over the last couple years that he can kill us with his scoring. the playmaking, while deadly as well, can be counteracted to some degree with rotations. if anyone other than Jaden and possibly Ant is on Luka i would double every time. there have been far too many instances in this series of Rudy/Naz/Randle guarding Luka with no help, which consistently yields very efficient offense

-we're overhelping off the corners when we're doubling Luka. if Luka's getting doubled then there's no need to help on a potential Luka drive because that drive is already being stymied. we've compromised our backline defense so much by overhelping off the corners

-we should stunt/late rotate to Hachimura when he's popping out of the p&p with Luka and make Hachimura a decision-maker up top. instead we've been leaving the corners open for open shots/easy extra pass situations, or have been just leaving Hachimura wide open

-we should exploit Hachimura's abysmal screening. often Jaden or whoever's guarding Luka is hardly hindered by the screen at all because Hachimura's screens are so bad, and yet we still hedge on Luka. even though we could easily just keep Jaden or whoever on Luka and not hedge. we did this a few times in game 4 and the lakers had no idea what to do. we should do it way more

-Ant/Randle/Naz's off-ball D has been terrible. between the botched switches, missed rotations, overhelping, and losing their men, there have been so many needless breakdowns by the timberwolves' defense, mostly by these three guys. all of them have shown the ability to at least be passable off-ball defenders, Ant & Randle were passable for most of the post all-star segment of the regular season. so idk if the coaching staff just isn't focusing as much on off-ball D now or what, but it's a big issue

-the last few points, if corrected to some degree, could dramatically increase Rudy's role as a rim protector in this series. Rudy has hardly been able to rim protect at all and has been increasingly played off the floor because he's having to switch and hedge so much and most of the timberwolves' breakdowns are leading to open 3s instead of drives to the rim. if we did a better job of keeping Jaden on Luka and buttoned up the off-ball D we could start chasing guys off the line and into Rudy more. as of now Rudy is basically just a bystander in this series

add everything up and you have, from game 2 onward, a lakers' offense that has consistently created open looks with ease, and a timberwolves' offense that has usually looked lost, bogged down by largely inefficient Ant & Randle iso-ball with no idea of what else to do

so how do the timberwolves lead this series 3-1?

well, game 3 Luka was sick and performed massively below his standards. so the timberwolves won

game 4 we had an anomaly of a rebounding performance, 18 offensive rebounds, with Ant putting up an anomaly of an offensive performance (43 points, 71% ts, 17 fta's; otherwise in the series he's at 25 ppg, 52% ts, 6 total fta's) and we STILL won by a mere 3 points

that's not to mention that in game 2 in which the lakers won by 9 our defense yielded an endless barrage of open 3s and the lakers hit just 21% of them. lakers should've easily won by 20+

it's just about the flukiest 3-1 lead for a team that i can imagine. oh yeah, and the lakers have homecourt for 2 of the next 3 if it goes the distance

so where does this put the timberwolves? well, pulling out game 4 was absolutely huge. if they'd lost it i'd be really low on their chances considering how they're playing. as it is they just have to win 1 out of 3, which is very doable. hopefully they make the right adjustments, but they haven't shown any real signs of making them. it's currently 3-1 timberwolves, but i think there's real reason to be concerned

[KGdaBom]

The man with 4 posts saying we've been dominated by the lakers in the series. You be concerned. Most of us won't be. Could we still lose? Of course.

[BlacJacMac]

Reading that, I'm not sure how we didn't go 0-82 on the year...

[younggunsmn]

I think you are missing some key points.

1. We have dominated both the turnover and offensive rebounding battles to the tune of getting about 10 extra possessions a game.
Ant has dramatically cut down his turnovers in this series so far.
His A/TO for the series is like 4.5/1 which is top tier even for an elite PG.
This is with the Lakers throwing the kitchen sink at him defensively loading up the box.
If we can keep winning the possession battle we will have a high percentage of winning each game.

2. We have DOMINATED every 4th quarter and crunch time.
Those parts of the game were supposed to be where we were the most outmatched.
Yes, we haven't been consistent and have had one bad quarter in each game. \

3. The Lakers had some RIDICULOUS shotmaking in games 3 and 4 and still lost.
Lebron in particular shot out of his mind from 3 point range which is probably the only thing that made those games close.

4. We have figured some things out with regards to defending Luka.
We are scheming to keep him out of the middle of the floor, cutting the floor in half and living with the corner shooting.
There have been breakdowns, but when it's been good it's been very good.
Luka had only 1 assist and 2 rebounds in 45 minutes in game four, and shot under 50% from the field with 7 FTA.
That's about as good as anyone is going to do defending him when he is healthy and motivated.
It's the same deal as with Jokic, if he isn't making his teammates better and is forced to work really hard for his points, you've done the best you can.

5. The 5 man group Redick has been forced to rely on has 3 bad defenders in it (Reaves, Doncic, Hachimura).

6. We haven't seen the best from Naz Reid, Donte Divencenzo, and Rudy Gobert so far in this series.
We have more in the tank on both ends than we are currently showcasing.

I agree that trusting the Wolves to win is always scary because of the freedom that Chris FInch allows his offensive players.
It can get ugly like in game 2 when we let the defense dictate to us.
But that freedom is also part of what raises our ceiling when things are all clicking, and gives guys like Ant and Naz the confidence to make big shots in crunch time.

[Baseline81]

OP has got to be DH, right?

[guest81]

laker fans and media are in the denial stage. Awesome to see

[Movics]

laker fans and media are in the denial stage. Awesome to see

When they were winning 200 minutes or whatever the number was in a 5 game series against the nuggets but still lost 1-4

[Note30]

OP has got to be DH, right?

No question.

[wolves_89]

Wolves have won 10 out 16 quarters through 4 games which includes every single 4th quarter.

[TimberKat]

timberwolves destroyed the lakers in game 1

since then i feel like the lakers have very solidly outplayed the timberwolves on both ends and should honestly be up 3-1 themselves imo

it starts with the primary creators. as great of a scorer and as improved of a playmaker as Ant is, he's still solidly behind Luka as a scorer and is nowhere near the playmaker. and then LeBron >>> Randle

these disparities only become amplified when you throw in the fact that the lakers have much better spacing than the timberwolves, making it easier for Luka/LeBron to operate

the lakers have alternated between helping and not helping on Ant. the thing is, as great as Ant has become, he still isn't to the point where he can consistently exert major impact in either scenario

Ant has the incredible 3pt shot now and the slashing, but an iffy free throw rate, poor finishing in traffic, terrible midrange shooting, and inconsistent off-ball movement hold back his efficiency, particularly when surrounded by poor spacing

we can rightfully marvel at Ant's ever-growing scoring repertoire and be perpetually encouraged by all of the positive signs of crazy potential he's continually showing, while still realizing that Ant hasn't quite reached the incredibly high threshold of scoring caliber that's required to sufficiently carry a playoff offense against an elite team with consistency. the reality of things is that outside of his spectacular game 4 Ant for the series is averaging 23 points per 36 on 52% true shooting (league average is 58%). which is a big part of the reason why the timberwolves offense has been so bad in this series

then if you double Ant, he often struggles to find the open man and with making high leverage passes. teams usually pay no tax at all when doubling Ant. he's improved significantly when it comes to drive-and-kicks, but if you double him early like the lakers often have been then he can struggle

on the other hand, Randle checks every playmaking box. if you make him a playmaker he'll capitalize all day. but Randle doesn't have the adequate scoring. and the lakers are one of the few teams who haven't helped on Randle drives and have forced him to be a scorer

meanwhile, on the other side Luka has invariably burned the timberwolves regardless of what defense they throw at him. he's killing them in single coverage and he's killing them when they double him. Luka just has a ridiculously good scoring/playmaking package. we're talking a top 5 all-time offensive peak. and then what LeBron gives you on top of that is just gravy

so the lakers have a much better offensive foundation than the timberwolves just due to the difference of key personnel

then layered on top of that are the timberwolves' tactical errors:

-i don't think the timberwolves have doubled Luka nearly often enough. he's proven over and over again over the last couple years that he can kill us with his scoring. the playmaking, while deadly as well, can be counteracted to some degree with rotations. if anyone other than Jaden and possibly Ant is on Luka i would double every time. there have been far too many instances in this series of Rudy/Naz/Randle guarding Luka with no help, which consistently yields very efficient offense

-we're overhelping off the corners when we're doubling Luka. if Luka's getting doubled then there's no need to help on a potential Luka drive because that drive is already being stymied. we've compromised our backline defense so much by overhelping off the corners

-we should stunt/late rotate to Hachimura when he's popping out of the p&p with Luka and make Hachimura a decision-maker up top. instead we've been leaving the corners open for open shots/easy extra pass situations, or have been just leaving Hachimura wide open

-we should exploit Hachimura's abysmal screening. often Jaden or whoever's guarding Luka is hardly hindered by the screen at all because Hachimura's screens are so bad, and yet we still hedge on Luka. even though we could easily just keep Jaden or whoever on Luka and not hedge. we did this a few times in game 4 and the lakers had no idea what to do. we should do it way more

-Ant/Randle/Naz's off-ball D has been terrible. between the botched switches, missed rotations, overhelping, and losing their men, there have been so many needless breakdowns by the timberwolves' defense, mostly by these three guys. all of them have shown the ability to at least be passable off-ball defenders, Ant & Randle were passable for most of the post all-star segment of the regular season. so idk if the coaching staff just isn't focusing as much on off-ball D now or what, but it's a big issue

-the last few points, if corrected to some degree, could dramatically increase Rudy's role as a rim protector in this series. Rudy has hardly been able to rim protect at all and has been increasingly played off the floor because he's having to switch and hedge so much and most of the timberwolves' breakdowns are leading to open 3s instead of drives to the rim. if we did a better job of keeping Jaden on Luka and buttoned up the off-ball D we could start chasing guys off the line and into Rudy more. as of now Rudy is basically just a bystander in this series

add everything up and you have, from game 2 onward, a lakers' offense that has consistently created open looks with ease, and a timberwolves' offense that has usually looked lost, bogged down by largely inefficient Ant & Randle iso-ball with no idea of what else to do

so how do the timberwolves lead this series 3-1?

well, game 3 Luka was sick and performed massively below his standards. so the timberwolves won

game 4 we had an anomaly of a rebounding performance, 18 offensive rebounds, with Ant putting up an anomaly of an offensive performance (43 points, 71% ts, 17 fta's; otherwise in the series he's at 25 ppg, 52% ts, 6 total fta's) and we STILL won by a mere 3 points

that's not to mention that in game 2 in which the lakers won by 9 our defense yielded an endless barrage of open 3s and the lakers hit just 21% of them. lakers should've easily won by 20+

it's just about the flukiest 3-1 lead for a team that i can imagine. oh yeah, and the lakers have homecourt for 2 of the next 3 if it goes the distance

so where does this put the timberwolves? well, pulling out game 4 was absolutely huge. if they'd lost it i'd be really low on their chances considering how they're playing. as it is they just have to win 1 out of 3, which is very doable. hopefully they make the right adjustments, but they haven't shown any real signs of making them. it's currently 3-1 timberwolves, but i think there's real reason to be concerned

This post is worth 4 posts. While I don't agree with all the points, there are some good thoughts going into it. Yes, I feel the Wolves got lucky this round. Hero ball worked. I think the key here is we can play with the Lakers and hang around until they get tired or our luck changes. We just need either Luka or LBJ to have one bad game out of three to win, so I still like our chances. I won't count the Lakers out.

[TimberKat]

I think you are missing some key points.

1. We have dominated both the turnover and offensive rebounding battles to the tune of getting about 10 extra possessions a game.
Ant has dramatically cut down his turnovers in this series so far.
His A/TO for the series is like 4.5/1 which is top tier even for an elite PG.
This is with the Lakers throwing the kitchen sink at him defensively loading up the box.
If we can keep winning the possession battle we will have a high percentage of winning each game.

2. We have DOMINATED every 4th quarter and crunch time.
Those parts of the game were supposed to be where we were the most outmatched.
Yes, we haven't been consistent and have had one bad quarter in each game. \

3. The Lakers had some RIDICULOUS shotmaking in games 3 and 4 and still lost.
Lebron in particular shot out of his mind from 3 point range which is probably the only thing that made those games close.

4. We have figured some things out with regards to defending Luka.
We are scheming to keep him out of the middle of the floor, cutting the floor in half and living with the corner shooting.
There have been breakdowns, but when it's been good it's been very good.
Luka had only 1 assist and 2 rebounds in 45 minutes in game four, and shot under 50% from the field with 7 FTA.
That's about as good as anyone is going to do defending him when he is healthy and motivated.
It's the same deal as with Jokic, if he isn't making his teammates better and is forced to work really hard for his points, you've done the best you can.

5. The 5 man group Redick has been forced to rely on has 3 bad defenders in it (Reaves, Doncic, Hachimura).

6. We haven't seen the best from Naz Reid, Donte Divencenzo, and Rudy Gobert so far in this series.
We have more in the tank on both ends than we are currently showcasing.

I agree that trusting the Wolves to win is always scary because of the freedom that Chris FInch allows his offensive players.
It can get ugly like in game 2 when we let the defense dictate to us.
But that freedom is also part of what raises our ceiling when things are all clicking, and gives guys like Ant and Naz the confidence to make big shots in crunch time.

Can't believe I am agreeing with younggun. Especially point #4. Even though Luka still gets his. I do feel like we figure him out a little with all those steals.

[Slim Tubby]

Three (3) things I've learned from Lakers fans this week:

1. Luka, LeBron and Reaves are arguably the greatest Top 3 in the history of the NBA.

2. The NBA is doing everything possible to ensure the Wolves advance in the Playoffs.

3. After losing both games in MN to go down 3-1 in the series, the Lakers have recaptured Home Court Advantage.

They sniff a lot of glue or eat a lot of paint chips in Los Angeles. Or both.

Sent from my N152DL using RealGM mobile app

[Biff Cooper]

I am still very worried about this series. LAL is a very dangerous team. Luka and Lebron are making tough shots while getting the other 3 guys on the court lots of open looks. Luckily they don't have much depth, and the other 3 guys on the court have not been shooting lights out. Our margin of error is very small.

[KGdaBom]

Three (3) things I've learned from Lakers fans this week:

1. Luka, LeBron and Reaves are arguably the greatest Top 3 in the history of the NBA.

2. The NBA is doing everything possible to ensure the Wolves advance in the Playoffs.

3. After losing both games in MN to go down 3-1 in the series, the Lakers have recaptured Home Court Advantage.

They sniff a lot of glue or eat a lot of paint chips in Los Angeles. Or both.

Sent from my N152DL using RealGM mobile app

That guys reasoning was they now have more possible home games remaining than the Wolves thus Homecourt Advantage. They secured Homecourt advantage by losing game 4 in Minnesota. You can't make this stuff up.
He also reasoned since they lost their first two road games they should be heavily favored in the next one.

[life_saver]

So far this series, I feel like Wolves have been slightly better but there isn't ton of difference. G4 essentially was a coinflip which could have gone either way. Difference though has been crunch time execution. I actually think Wolves would won more dominantly if Finch cut down Conley minutes. Lakers are also shooting well. They made some absurd shots in the G3.

[Klomp]

So far this series, I feel like Wolves have been slightly better but there isn't ton of difference. G4 essentially was a coinflip which could have gone either way. Difference though has been crunch time execution. I actually think Wolves would won more dominantly if Finch cut down Conley minutes. Lakers are also shooting well. They made some absurd shots in the G3.

Funny enough, that's not too indifferent from how I felt about the Dallas series last year.

[shrink]

Three (3) things I've learned from Lakers fans this week:

1. Luka, LeBron and Reaves are arguably the greatest Top 3 in the history of the NBA.

2. The NBA is doing everything possible to ensure the Wolves advance in the Playoffs.

3. After losing both games in MN to go down 3-1 in the series, the Lakers have recaptured Home Court Advantage.

They sniff a lot of glue or eat a lot of paint chips in Los Angeles. Or both.

Sent from my N152DL using RealGM mobile app

I also heard that LAL would win close games in the fourth quarter because they have vets, and Ant would crack under pressure.

[cmoss84]

I wonder how Laker fans would have responded if Rudy dove at LeBron or Luka's ankle.

[KGdaBom]

Wild lose in OT on shorthanded goal. Fudge. Wolves don't be the Wild.

[Note30]

I wonder how Laker fans would have responded if Rudy dove at LeBron or Luka's ankle.

Probably like the **** they are. Post on socials how the wee little Lakers never catch a break and the whole league is dirty.

**** the Lakers. And their fake botox filled brain dead fair weather fans.