Pick Talk

[shrink]

I've been giving some thought to acquiring more 1st round picks for next season. I like the depth of the 2008 draft, hopefully finding a place to combine a few to move up in the draft. I would also like to trade some of our expiring assets into something with future value. As bad as MIN is, we have a tremendous advantage in trades, since we can deal current production without feeling it too much.

These are often inter-related, but likely targets who would deal their 1st rounders most easily are ones that:

1. Are win-now, and would like to trade future considerations for help now.

2. Have holes in their line-ups, either from injury or lack of success, or a shallow bench

3. Are doing well, or expect to, so the pick is later in the first round

4. Have luxury tax concerns, and a guaranteed salary, even a smaller rookie contract, will cost them double.

Off the top of my head, let me go through the most likely candidates:

CLE (1, 2, 3, 4)
DAL (1, 3, 4)
LAL (1, 3, 4)
DEN (1, 2, 3, 4)
ORL (1, 2, 3)
NO (1, 2, 3)
POR (3, 4)
SA (1, 3)
PHO (1, 4)
NJN (1, 3)
DET (1, 3)
HOU (1, 2, 3)

Now suppose we were able to gain a few non-lotto first rounders, so we have a mittful of picks:

2008 MIN 1st, 2008 XXX 1st (let's say #21), 2008 XXX 1st (let's say #28), 2008 MIN 2nd, 2008 MIA 2nd

2009 MIN 1st, 2009 MIA 1st, 2009 BOS 1st

Besides PHO, who would be likely candidates to trade out of the lottery for more, but lesser (or future), picks? Do they have any characteristics?

[shrink]

Incidently, here's the current standings for the race for ping pong balls. If the lottery was held today, January 13th, here's the standings.

1. MIN 5-31
2. MIA 8-28
3. SEA 9-27
4. NYK 9-26
5. LAC 10-23
6. MEM 10-26
7. CHA 13-23
8. PHI 14-23
9. SAC 14-21
10 MIL 15-22
11 CHI 14-20
12 HOU 20-17
13 UTA 21-17
14 GSW 21-16

ATL 15-17, is the #8 seed in the East today

[PeeDee]

I was also wondering something else relating to get more picks in the 08 draft.

When (what day and month) do contracts expire?

We have Ratliff, Gomes, Smith, Green, Richards and Doleac expiring after the season. Can we still trade them after the lottery and before/during the draft?

Or will they have expired before then?

I was just wondering because they would be good assets in getting more picks in 08'. I think I would be willing to deal the Miami pick and/or the Boston pick to get another pick this year.

Also, how do you feel about Walker's trade value after this season? Will teams be interested in him since he is in the last year of his contract? Or will they all hold off until the trade deadline of '09?

[shrink]

NBA Trade Deadline is February 22nd, so we can't trade any of those expirings after that date.

The good news is that next Summer, Antoine Walker ($9 mil) and Greg Buckner ($4 mil) will become expiring contracts (i.e. - expire in the summer of 2009).

While trading our big expirings would have value, MIN is a little strapped next season to add salary. The picks will cost guaranteed salaries, and too much money would cost us the flexibility to re-sign Gomes, Smith or Telfair if they erupt this year. I doubt Glen Taylor will go over the lux.

As for Walker's trade value, a $9 mil expiring next season will certainly have some trade value, and with Juwon and Troy coming off the books, we could trade him for a pick and a longer deal, and absorb the salary for 2009-10 while staying under the lux, so that's a good idea.

I'm still struggling right now to decide at what date Walker's contract becomes a net zero. In other words, with 34 games in the books, we're closing in on having paid half of Walker's salary. Is 1.5 years of paying Walker for a deal that exires next summer a positive, negative or neutral trade asset? What fraction of the salary needs to be paid before he breaks even?

[PeeDee]

I thought Hudson didn't come off till the summer of 2010.

[wolves_fan_82au]

I thought Hudson didn't come off till the summer of 2010.

he was bought out

[wolves_fan_82au]

Incidently, here's the current standings for the race for ping pong balls. If the lottery was held today, January 13th, here's the standings.

1. MIN 5-31
2. MIA 8-28
3. SEA 9-27
4. NYK 9-26
5. LAC 10-23
6. MEM 10-26
7. CHA 13-23
8. PHI 14-23
9. SAC 14-21
10 MIL 15-22
11 CHI 14-20
12 HOU 20-17
13 UTA 21-17
14 GSW 21-16

ATL 15-17, is the #8 seed in the East today

trading with a houston,GSW,Chicargo or utah might not be a bad idea ,the are all high up and im sure they would love a player like smith or gomes

maybe smith/Gomes for Gray/1st

[PeeDee]

he was bought out

Yes I know. But when players are bought out, their final 'buy out' price is still divided between the remaining years on their contract. So, whatever Hudson's buy out price was, will still count against our cap until the the remaining years of the original contract expire.

Which is the summer of 2010, or so I thought.

[deeney0]

Hudson's contract wasn't guarenteed for 2010 - he needed to play a certain number of games for the Wolves in 2009 to guarentee 2010. Thus, he will come off the books in 2009.

[PeeDee]

Ah, thanks.

[Klomp]

OK, so our expirings are Theo, Doleac, Telfair, Green, Gomes, Smith, and Richard, right?

If we somehow get a package to get into the mid-lottery for Hardin (lets say we give either Gomes or Smith in the deal along with at least one of our high 2nds), letting the other one of those 2 walk, and resigning Telfair and Richard, and drafting Jordan with our own first, we'd be sitting with:

Foye / Telfair
McCants / Jaric
Brewer / Jaric
Jefferson / Richard / Madsen
Jordan / Hardin

I'd be fine with that

[dunkonu21]

Foye / Telfair
McCants / Jaric/Buckner* (you forgot him)
Brewer / Jaric/Walker*
Jefferson / Richard / Madsen
Jordan / Hardin


That looks pretty good to me...I just do not want Hardin as our starting C...Back-up C, he would be wonderful...

[PeeDee]

If we end up with pick 4 or lower, I'd rather us draft Greene and then move up to get Hibbert.

If we end up with pick 1-3 I'd maybe trade down to get Greene and some other value (either a young prospect or exchange one of our bad contracts for a better one. Like Jaric and the 1st overall for Milicic and the 5th). And still move up to get Hibby.

Foye/Telfair
McCants/Brewer
Greene/Brewer
Jefferson/Richard
Hibbert/Milicic

I think people are sleeping on Greene and the talent gap between him and the prospects rated 1-4 is minimal.

I think this group would be excellent in the half court both offensively and defensively.

[wolves_fan_82au]

Foye / Telfair
McCants / Jaric/Buckner* (you forgot him)
Brewer / Jaric/Walker*
Jefferson / Richard / Madsen
Jordan / Hardin


That looks pretty good to me...I just do not want Hardin as our starting C...Back-up C, he would be wonderful...

Richard a centre isnt he ?

i would draft
1-4 : Rose
lottery pick(we must get one or just outside of one) : Ogilvy
31st : Jawai
32nd : Caracter

this gives us
C-Ogilvy/Jawai/Richard
PF-Jefferson/Caracter
SF-Brewer/Jaric
SG-Foye/Mccants
PG-Rose/Telfair

i think thats a pretty decent side

[Krapinsky]

this gives us
C-Ogilvy/Jawai/Richard
PF-Jefferson/Caracter
SF-Brewer/Jaric
SG-Foye/Mccants
PG-Rose/Telfair


^^^^This team still lacks a jump shooter.
With Foye/McCants/Brewer all on the wings we don't have a three point threat. If we draft Rose, I think we either need to trade Foye or Brewer for that shooter. I like Rose the most as well, but as constructed, Green, Gordon, and even Mayo are probably better fits with our club.

Beasley is also a bad fit for our club. The only way we should draft him is if we're willing to trade Jefferson for a five (Amare? Okafor +?) something I don't think anyone wants to do.

I think we have to keep developing Gerald Green. He is essentially the player our rotation needs. I think we have to resign him.

Then I think we need to draft an athletic C and another shooter.

The future team should look like this:

C- Deandre Jordan/Richards
PF- Jefferson/Smith
SF-Brewer/(Drafted Shooter)
SG-Green/McCants
PG-Foye/Telfair

As for the shooter I would love to be able to make a trade for a late lottery pick- (maybe Green falls? Otherwise Gallinari would be great--- but other than those two the draft doesn't have a shooter who can play the three)

Another scenario is necessary in case Foye can't play the point. In that case I think we're in trouble unless we trade Foye/Brewer/McCants for a shooter who can play the two or three. Maybe then we draft Derrick Rose and try to trade Brewer for Donte Green or Foye for Eric Gordon. I'm not saying Green>Brewer or Gordon>Foye. A trade like that would be necessary to make a team that has some chemistry.

[shrink]

I know this thread leads right into the draft, but I would like to have a thread that talks about acquiring picks.

MN Die Hard had a good idea on the Trade Board to acquire the ATL pick from PHO (right now, #15 but I expect young ATL to improve in the second half). PHO's owner is desperate to get under the lux, and this summer traded the useful, expiring Kurt Thomas for a TPE, and PHO threw in two late 1sts. Moving Banks long deal (and I suppose, a larger guaranteed salary from the pick next year) would help him do that.

2007-08 $3,966,207
2008-09 $4,260,000
2009-10 $4,553,793
2010-11 $4,847,586

Here's his trade:

Banks and 2008 #1 (via Atlanta) for Doleac and 2009 #1 (via Boston)

I suggested that since signing Banks means we have to pass on re-signing one or two of our young productive players, a win-now team like PHO might prefer a guy like Gomes Craig Smith or Telfair to the guaranteed salary of a late 1st rounder.

Banks + ATL 1st for Doleac + Gomes (or Smith or Telfair .. their choice).

If we wanted to avoid Banks, perhaps we could help PHO with win-now production on unguaranteed salaries:

Craig Smith + Ryan Gomes for Piatkowski + ATL #1

This adds about 20 PPG and 9 RPG to PHO for the unproductive Piatkowski, and best of all, these players are both cheap, and unguaranteed salaries .. something Sarver would love. I also included the MIN #2, most likely the 31st pick in the draft, which is also unguaranteed.

You guys like any of these? The ATL pick is a little better than plucking at the end of the first round.

[C.lupus]

Banks and 2008 #1 (via Atlanta) for Doleac and 2009 #1 (via Boston)

I suggested that since signing Banks means we have to pass on re-signing one or two of our young productive players, a win-now team like PHO might prefer a guy like Gomes Craig Smith or Telfair to the guaranteed salary of a late 1st rounder.

Banks + ATL 1st for Doleac + Gomes (or Smith or Telfair .. their choice).

If we wanted to avoid Banks, perhaps we could help PHO with win-now production on unguaranteed salaries:

Craig Smith + Ryan Gomes + MIN #2 for Piatkowski + ATL #1

This adds about 20 PPG and 9 RPG to PHO for the unproductive Piatkowski, and best of all, these players are both cheap, and unguaranteed salaries .. something Sarver would love. I also included the MIN #2, most likely the 31st pick in the draft, which is also unguaranteed.

You guys like any of these? The ATL pick is a little better than plucking at the end of the first round.

I like the idea of getting Atlanta's pick but I'm not crazy about adding Banks' salary on top of Jaric's. I would definitely do #1 or #2 if we could move Jaric (tall task, I know). If we can't move Jaric, I'd probably still do #2 or #3 with some hesitation. The third trade seems like we are overpaying a bit. Can we keep our 2nd rounder? PHO is adding 20ppg and 9rpg for a mid-1st round pick. That seems reasonable to me.

[Krapinsky]

Anyone that takes Banks contract shouldn't have to give a pick back IMO.

[MN Die Hard]

Shrink makes some good points about including guys like Gomes and Smith, provided we wouldnt resign them ourselves.

I'm not sure why Banks is considered to have such a bad contract. He's paid less than the league's average salary, and is a respectable backup PG. He's probably not going to be a starter, but he's not paid like one either. He's a good defender and not a bad shooter. Not a great distributor, but if we draft Rose we have our PG anyway.

[C.lupus]

I'm not sure why Banks is considered to have such a bad contract. He's paid less than the league's average salary, and is a respectable backup PG. He's probably not going to be a starter, but he's not paid like one either. He's a good defender and not a bad shooter. Not a great distributor, but if we draft Rose we have our PG anyway.

Its not that his contract is terrible but if we keep Jaric, then we have $11m per year tied up in backup PGs that are limited. If we draft Rose, I would rather go with Foye as the starting SG and backup PG. That means there would be a lot of money sitting on the bench. If we move Jaric, then, yeah, I'm fine with it.