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Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2008 2:41 am**

Credit to I Love Heinson from the Celtics board

Portland Trail Blazers
Simple arithmetic dictates that the Blazers will be trading either now or this summer. They are so attached to the 15 players on their roster that they wouldn't cut anyone to make room for a much-needed big man after Greg Oden went down. So that's 15 players they like (although Raef LaFrentz could be bought out, Taurean Green's contract is not guaranteed next year, and James Jones has a player option). Add to that three first-round draft picks of recent years stashed overseas -- Rudy Fernandez, Joel Freeland, and Petteri Koponen. This summer the team has a first-round pick, and three high-quality second-round picks. That's 22 players in the mix. If Portland doesn't trade any of them away, they'll be forced to make painful cuts at some point, while letting the competition scoop them up for free. GM Kevin Pritchard is known to be crafty, and I don't think anyone expects him to let good players fall into the hands of other teams without compensation. The only remedy is to deal now or on draft day, and at the moment, thanks to a convincing winning jag, much of the roster is more valuable than ever.

Could one of them fall into our hands?

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2008 3:40 am**

I'd take a look at Taurean Green in the summer as a 3rd string PG if the Blazers let him go. He's undersized and likely won't make it in the NBA long term, but anything to help with Brewer's development (i.e. confidence, if Corey's even lacking it, idk?)

As for trades, I don't think MIN and POR are good trading partners. We are pushing the roster limit with multiple picks/players to resign and POR is likely looking to deal multiple picks/players (quantity) for quality.

But with Kevin Pritchard, I guess anything is possible...

BTW my first point kinda contradicts the second but I'm going to assume Bassy doesnt resign here and either Jaric or draftee (Rose) would be the backup behind Foye.

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2008 5:16 am**

As of this moment, I'd say there are 4 players who likely won't be with the team next season.

Green and McRoberts are 2 2nd round picks that the Blazers really don't need and can easily be bought out.

Then there's Channing Frye, who's role will seriously decrease once Greg Oden comes back. With Travis Outlaw solidifying himself as Portland backup PF and Przybilla becoming Portland's backup C with Oden healthy, Channing really won't have much room for PT. So I'd say look for him to be moved.

Finally, Portland will have to decide between Jarrett Jack and Sergio Rodriguez. One of the two will likely have to go at some point. The Blazers beat writer believes that these final games of the season will determine if they want to keep the potential that Sergio has, or keep the scoring punch that Jack gives us.

Also it should go without saying that Portland would love to be rid of Miles as well.

The original poster who made the comment is right, Portland does need to make room for some players, but probably not as much as one would think. If Portland wanted, they could open up as few as 1 roster spot. Assuming they don't keep their first round pick, they'd only have to make room for Rudy Fernandez, as neither Freeland or Koponen will be brought over next season. If Portland does keep their pick, they'll need 2 spots open. If the Blazers buy more 1st rounders like they have in recent years... Then Pritchard is gonna have to work some of his magic and find room for everyone.

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2008 6:10 am**

How about something like Doleac and Bostons pick and your million back from the roy/foye trade for Frye and either sergio or jack

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2008 7:20 am**

delux55 wrote:How about something like Doleac and Bostons pick and your million back from the roy/foye trade for Frye and either sergio or jack

LOL. That would be an easy no.

While Frye will become a odd-man-out, the Blazers aren't in a rush to deal with the problem. They certainly aren't desperate enough to give up him AND another rotation player in either Jack or Sergio, just to get what amounts to Doleac's expiring contract and the last pick in the 1st round. That's a really stupid trade for Portland and they could do much better.

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:01 am**

Craig Smith for Channing Frye, I think im in love with this trade.

Props to the OP of this trade.

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2008 4:11 pm**

If they won't have any minutes for Frye why would they have minutes for Smith?

Sergio Rodriguez is who I would want on the Wolves. If we could get him for Doleac and Bostons pick I would do it. He could come off the bench when Foye either comes out of the game or plays sg. Also we could focus on getting a big man in the draft since our pg/wing rotation would be set.

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2008 4:31 pm**

I dont have a great feel for how Portland values all of its players so I'm not sure how they'd feel about this. But, it does open up three roster spots for them next season.

Green, Doleac, and Theo (all expiring)

for

Raef, Frye, and either Sergio or Jack

MN is getting two young prospects so I could see us adding either a 2nd this year (a player Portland could put overseas) or Boston's pick next year. Either way, the pick wouldnt have to take up a roster spot this year.

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2008 4:47 pm**

MN Die Hard wrote:I dont have a great feel for how Portland values all of its players so I'm not sure how they'd feel about this. But, it does open up three roster spots for them next season.

Green, Doleac, and Theo (all expiring)

for

Raef, Frye, and either Sergio or Jack

MN is getting two young prospects so I could see us adding either a 2nd this year (a player Portland could put overseas) or Boston's pick next year. Either way, the pick wouldnt have to take up a roster spot this year.

MIN can't afford to give up $16 mil in expirings and still sign its 1st round draft pick next season. Theo-Raef deals are probably off the table.

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2008 4:55 pm**

I'd also add that a more likely alternative for MIN financially would be a deal where part of it would be Walker + Doleac for Raef. If the POR plan is to buy out Raef's deal which would be an expiring this summer, buying out Walker's expiring would be cheaper.

This would only be part of a deal, since POR can't take back more players than it sends, but I don't think this hurts POR short-term either. Doleac could fill in for Raef (and Doleac has better numbers, and of course, Walker has been producing far better than either. The TradeChecker nets the deal out for POR at:

Change in Team Outlook: +10.3 ppg, +4.1 rpg, and +1.2 apg.

MIN doesn't need the production, but they'd use up $3.7 mil of its vital lux-space next season, so I wouldn't do the deal straight up.

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2008 6:26 pm**

Pritchard loves Sergio. He's not going anywhere. We could maybe pry Jack, but not until the offseason.

Frye is a better fit for them then Smith is. I don't see how that trade makes sense for Portland.

The reality is, Portland is building the rigth way-- through the draft and acquiring assets. There is no need for them too change that strategy at this point. Moreover, there roster is not overcrowded since Jones will likley not be back with them (no need with Outlaw and Webster), Green is not needed (they already have three pgs), and Miles or Lafrentz will probably be bought out.

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2008 6:47 pm**

I would like Frye also, but i do not see how a deal would work with them for him unless it is this summer when we have roster space and we can compensate with picks or something.

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:42 pm**

Dr.Krapinsky wrote:The reality is, Portland is building the rigth way-- through the draft and acquiring assets. There is no need for them too change that strategy at this point. Moreover, there roster is not overcrowded since Jones will likley not be back with them (no need with Outlaw and Webster), Green is not needed (they already have three pgs), and Miles or Lafrentz will probably be bought out.

That's not the case at all. The Blazers Beat Writer for the Oregonian recently addressed the issue of Jones in his blog, here is what he had to say...

I wouldn't fret about the future of Trail Blazers forward and resident sage James Jones, who has the option to become a free agent after this season.

Even though I was chastised Friday by teammate Steve Blake for doing so, I probed Jones on where he stood regarding his $3.2 million player option, and Jones indicated he has every intention of staying in Portland.

However, that revelation didn't come before taking a little razing from Blake.

"Come on J-Quick, you can't be asking about contracts right now,'' Blake said passing by. "It's too early.''

It may be, but Jones took no offense, even though he called the question "premature''.

"For me, it has always been about just thinking in the near future,'' Jones said. "If an opportunity presents itself for me to opt out and stay here, cool. Or if it doesn't present itself - an opportunity for me to opt out _ and I stay here, that's fine too. But either way it goes, I want to stay here.''

Jones, who is leading the NBA in three-point percentage (52.7 percent), makes $2.9 million this season. Next season he has three options:

1. Exercise the option on his contract and play for $3.2 million next season.

2. Opt out of his contract and sign a free-agent contract with another team.

3. Opt out of his contract and negotiate a new deal with the Blazers, who would own his Bird Rights.

I think it's a safe bet the end result will be either option 1 or option 3. The Blazers love Jones _ "We don't win that (Miami) game without him" general manager Kevin Pritchard said _ and Jones loves this Portland team.

"I like it here,'' Jones said. "I won't say (that he is coming back) no matter what, but I like it here. This is a place for me. I've had a lot of success here. It's different going someplace and winning and actually going someplace and helping teams win. I'm about winning. Because at the end of the day, if you are not about winning, you can be bing-banged around from place to place.

"But if you are winning, you can pretty much find a home and be stable. Right now, I've been on three teams in five years and I'm kind of looking for a little stability.''

--Quick

In other words, it's pretty safe to assume that Jones will be back with Portland next season. Outside of some other team offering him a ludicrous contract, he'll be with the Blazers for the foreseeable future.

BTW, you said Portland doesn't need Jones because of Outlaw and Webster. That's wrong. People routinely mistake Outlaw as playing SF in Portland. He doesn't. He is our primary backup PF. So without Jones, the Blazers SF position gets very thin, very quick. Plus, he's a great lockerroom presence. It's no coincidence that the Blazers started getting hot once he came back from injury at the end of November. Also, Webster is really streaky. Some nights he'll be on fire and other nights, his shot will really be off. Jones brings a consistency that this young Blazer team needs.

Craig Smith for Frye isn't a terrible idea, but as someone brought out, we'll have the same problem of him not getting any minutes with our frontcourt rotation of Aldridge/Outlaw and Oden/Przybilla.

I'd also add that a more likely alternative for MIN financially would be a deal where part of it would be Walker + Doleac for Raef. If the POR plan is to buy out Raef's deal which would be an expiring this summer, buying out Walker's expiring would be cheaper.

While this is true, there has been nothing to suggest that the Blazers are planning on buying out Raef. If they were going too, they could have done it this summer when they bought out Francis. More likely than not, the Blazers will keep Raef and try to use him as trade bait for when his contract is expiring. If he's still on the roster next season and they can't find a trade that makes sense, then they might look to buy him out right after the trading deadline. That way they can open up a roster spot mid-season and maybe fill a need or bring up a D-Leaguer.

Posted: **Thu Jan 24, 2008 1:49 am**

Spykes wrote: While this is true, there has been nothing to suggest that the Blazers are planning on buying out Raef. If they were going too, they could have done it this summer when they bought out Francis.

I think that's a reach. Was the roster spot as valuable last summer as it will be this summer?

Spykes wrote: More likely than not, the Blazers will keep Raef and try to use him as trade bait for when his contract is expiring.

Unless you're planning on bringing in some max deal star, salary matching would mean POR would have even more players to find a roster spot for.

Spykes wrote: If he's still on the roster next season and they can't find a trade that makes sense, then they might look to buy him out right after the trading deadline. That way they can open up a roster spot mid-season and maybe fill a need or bring up a D-Leaguer.

.. but wouldn't POR's life be easier if they have that roster spot now?

Posted: **Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:37 am**

nice insight Spykes, thanks.

Posted: **Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:59 am**

whoopsie. i was under the impression that Jones had a team option. I'll take your word for it and assume he's going to be back. However, with Oden in next year won't he be shifting to the 3?

Oden/Pryz
Aldridge/Frye
Outlaw/Webster/Jones?

or perhaps you guys have a plan to move one of Frye or Pryz to keep Outlaw at the 4 spot.

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