Value of Taking a bad contract

[the_bruce]

I've been thinking of the value of taking a bad contract. Now hear me out on this one as it's a somewhat absurd thing to do, but I think if managed correctly it's probably the way to build a team. If you look at the value of all-star caliber players who have been aquired in the past. It's pretty easy to figure out it doesn't take much more than an expiring contract and a couple of late 1sts.

But what does taking back a contract that's not so great get a team or just help a team clear some cash off the books. I figure the high end is probably phx with 2 late 1sts to SEA and the middle of the road is a first round pick. Lets just say a team decides hey screw it lets take back 30m in bad contracts get a few picks out of the deal and just let them play. We will then trade away these big contracts in a few years combined with the 1sts we got in or players we got in and see what that gets us back. You then jump on the firesale bandwagon and away you go.

This obviously straps the owner for cash and makes a not so great team, but probably ensures better picks and more lucrative young assets to fish for a better player in the future.

Now for an example...
Orlando Magic
Incoming Players: Greg Buckner
Outgoing Players: Keyon Dooling

Minnesota Timberwolves
Incoming Players: Shaquille O'Neal, Smush Parker
Outgoing Players: Greg Buckner, Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff

Miami Heat
Incoming Players: Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff, Keyon Dooling
Outgoing Players: Shaquille O'Neal, Smush Parker

MIA removes pick protection from this years pick, frees up the money tied up in shaq over the next three years. They could use theos, Jwill, RD's expirings to grab a few this year or wait till next years FA market to fetch a few guys. I think this actually saves MIA 12m this year as well.

MN sucks it up this year and next. This deal certainly puts them over the luxury tax this year, and probably at the luxury tax next year. They probably can't sign Gomes or Smith without paying double. Heck the rookies next year might count double. I'm to lazy to check the numbers but I think this year he'd put MN at ~73m(w/o luxury ax) and next year ~65m in this trade. I know nobody hear would want to choke on a 3 year contract, but is it really so bad when you look at what expirings + a few picks can get you from a team unloading a disgruntled star? Shaqs contract is actually a little to big to be usefull when he becomes an expiring, but hell who knows?

[shrink]

Its an interesting idea, and I've given it some thought over the last few days.

First, I am almost positive Shaq would not report to play in snowy MIN, so his contract would be at whatever discount he'd accept. He may just retire. To me, he only seems occasionally interested in basketball anyway, and might want to just get on with his life. Moreover, Shaq is one of only a couple of guys out there who have made soooo much money, not only in basketball but in movies and in commericals, that Glen Taylor may be able to negotiate a substantial discount. Money means less to Shaq than to, say, Troy Hudson.

Anyone want to speculate what the true cost to MIN would be?

[karch34]

It's an interesting thought. However I think it's just too long of a deal right now. If there was an option after next year, like Buckner and Walker then I probably would be more for it. I think it's too big of a dollar amount and as shrink said he'd likely never play, that there's probably no real value to us.

[kandiking]

yeah fine idea. but our owner has a greeting card empire. unfortunately not the cofounder of microsoft.

[the_bruce]

Its an interesting idea, and I've given it some thought over the last few days.

First, I am almost positive Shaq would not report to play in snowy MIN, so his contract would be at whatever discount he'd accept. He may just retire. To me, he only seems occasionally interested in basketball anyway, and might want to just get on with his life. Moreover, Shaq is one of only a couple of guys out there who have made soooo much money, not only in basketball but in movies and in commericals, that Glen Taylor may be able to negotiate a substantial discount. Money means less to Shaq than to, say, Troy Hudson.

Anyone want to speculate what the true cost to MIN would be?

Shaq not reporting and accepting a buyout is the worst possible scenario. Shaq may be a bad example for this(he'd probably take 1/2 pay cut imo), but I guess I'm just trying to get a feel on how much value is obtained by suffering with a bad contract for a couple of years, skimming some picks off the deal and using the bad contract as a moveable asset along with the picks/prospects that may have matured a bit over a few years.

I'm fairly certain most teams are willing to move their disgruntled star for expiring + pick/prospect and it seems like most teams are willing to ship a pick and more to ditch near term financial woes. so there looks like theres some value being lost in that teams want immediate return and are willing to overpay to fix their finances now.

the value of cutting a year off darius miles(ignore character concerns for this example) as something like: 1st rnd pick + frye or jack

the value of miles for an expiring might be significantly higher due to POR financial situation, but who knows.

That third year of miles at 9m, lets a team take back ~11m in salary. Maybe a rookie scale contract and a 1st round picks makes this look like:
9m expiring + pick + young prospect for the team getting miles.

MN could take on 14m in salary which if you look at salaries
to skill ratio teams can get some pretty good pieces. What does 14m get you in a sg/sf/etc. Seems significant if you look at a salary list.

[Krapinsky]

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic. ... highlight=

[the_bruce]

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=753304&highlight=

That's a pretty good post. I liked it.

Shrinks point about banks + atl pick for the TPE is good imo. If MN bundled Telfair + Smith for something in return I think it could be a justifable trade.