2008-2009 Roster

[MN Die Hard]

Too early to think about this?

Eight guys under contract right now:

Walker
Buckner
Jaric
Jefferson
Foye
Brewer
McCants
Madsen

Five guys potentially brought back:

Cookie
Telfair
Snyder
Richard
Gomes
EDIT: I guess Theo could be included as a 6th guy on this list

Three draft picks next year:

MN #1
MN #2
Miami #2

If we do nothing but bring back all our own guys, we can only keep two of the three picks on the roster, and not add any free agents, even minimum salary guys or MLE guys.

Obviously trades, buy-outs, etc will impact all of this.

The team is up and down, but after games like Utah, I feel like I'd be happy to just bring everyone back, get a solid lottery pick, and let them grow together another year.

On the other hand, there is still a glaring hole at center that Al cannot fill forever, and that will not change if we land a top-two pick.

[deeney0]

Wolves will be right up against the lux keeping Smith, Telfair, and Gomes. Adding Synder to that list pretty much demands a 70-80% Walker buy out, which gets rid of the roster limit problems.

I'd be shocked to see two players from the 2008 2nd round on our roster next year. I expect either a trade or drafting a Euro who can stay put for a year. Maybe even selling the second pick.

Unless the first round pick ends up being a C, baring some sort of move, Wolves are going to lack size next year.

[revprodeji]

Personally, I would like to make a trade up, move the 2 second rd picks with walker perhaps for a 1st and a big. Of course trade checker does not account for next year, but a draft day trade of.

(of course it is all based on if teams want it)

Walker+2 2nds for Nene+1st

Walker+2 2nds for Diaw+atl 1st (might need to add more, who knows, Phx has an owner that loves to save money)

Walker+2 2nds for E.Thomas+wash 1st

Just some ideas to save some teams money, we take a little cap hit, but get a better pick and concentrate the draft picks. Anything in the late teen range can bring a decent big.

[shrink]

Nice post deeney! I agree with everything you've said.

There's also another factor that we'd need to consider -- roster spots. Let's say we brought everyone back, and got a big enough buy-out from Walker to pick up a cheap center (let's say POB) and stay under the lux. We leave both second rounders in Europe, and slide in with a max roster size of 15.

First, having a max roster, like we have this year, restricts trading. Teams need to waive players (pay players not to play) before they make a trade that increases their roster size. For example, a team with 15 players can't do a 1-for-2 deal, and then waive one of the players they acquire. they need to cut one of their own players first, and have a roster size of 14. Glen Taylor's been great this year about opening the wallet to pay players not to play (Juwon, Troy, Simien and I guess Udrih for a total of $12 mil), but that's tough to ask for more.

Next season, we may be adding three guaranteed salaries simply from first round picks. This makes it tough, since only Buckner is left to go. There are options of course, like trading picks or players, signing players in 2008 on one-year deals, or again, simply waiving them, but we may also want to bring in a developing player from Europe as well. Portland is in exactly that position -- they want to bring Sergio Rodriguez over, but their roster is full at 15.

My guess here is this:

1. Gomes - resigned to a three year deal
2. Telfair - resigned to a three year deal
3. Craig Smith - we'll be unable to match
4. Chris Richard - 1 year deal or released
5. Snyder - too soon to tell, but probably released.

If we want to give Snyder a chance, I think we need to buy out Buckner. Even though I like his attitude, I don't see where he gets the minutes to justify a roster spot. I'd hold onto Walker at least until this summer, because as Kwame Brown demonstrated, $9 mil expirings are pretty valuable things to trade around the NBA. Trading him would create new financial problems, but we've already paid $5.5 of his $8.3 mil salary this year .. we might as well keep the trade flexibility for when he truly has trade value this summer.

[revprodeji]

I agree, if we bring back Snyder we need to ditch Buckner, but Buckner's quotes lately make it seem like he is cool being a vet on the team.

If Walker is not bought out soon, he should not be bought out at all. He is a trade asset. As you said.

Why do you think we will be unable to match for Cookie? What if he wants to stay? He seems to have a good situation with Al.

[revprodeji]

btw, good to see you Shrink.

[karch34]

Right now I agree that the only sure things for being re-signed are Telfair and Gomes. I think they'd like to bring Craig back, but that could depend heavily on who we draft. If we were to get Beasley who plays either 3 or 4, that could move Gomes to the backup F position, likely seeing more minutes at PF as Brewer will need to get his minutes at SF.

I think Snyder could be a nice player for us, but with Buckner it's something we probably can't do as far as roster spots. You want the veteran influence, but at the same time he's a lot more expensive than what you want for the veteran at the end of the bench.

I think if Walker were to take a significant buy-out then that probably helps a lot with the roster and options.

I think shrink summed up the roster spot situation very well.

[karch34]

Personally, I would like to make a trade up, move the 2 second rd picks with walker perhaps for a 1st and a big. Of course trade checker does not account for next year, but a draft day trade of.

(of course it is all based on if teams want it)

Walker+2 2nds for Nene+1st

Walker+2 2nds for Diaw+atl 1st (might need to add more, who knows, Phx has an owner that loves to save money)

Walker+2 2nds for E.Thomas+wash 1st

Just some ideas to save some teams money, we take a little cap hit, but get a better pick and concentrate the draft picks. Anything in the late teen range can bring a decent big.

I'd do any of those trades. I agree that that's what we need to look at doing if at all possible. I wonder if Phoenix would accept something along the lines of Jaric and Buckner with the 2nds for Diaw and Atl 1st. It's a 2 for one which helps us roster wise and Buckner's expiring help shave off salary for Phoenix and I think Jaric's contract is shorter than Diaw.

[revprodeji]

Switching walker and jaric makes no sense for phx, the whole reason for phx in this case is the ending contract of walker.

[MN Die Hard]

I think they'd like to bring Craig back, but that could depend heavily on who we draft. If we were to get Beasley who plays either 3 or 4, that could move Gomes to the backup F position, likely seeing more minutes at PF as Brewer will need to get his minutes at SF.

Great point; Beasley could mean the end of the Craig Smith era in MN.

On the other hand, drafting Rose probably doesnt force Telfair out, unless he insists on being a starter.

[karch34]

Switching walker and jaric makes no sense for phx, the whole reason for phx in this case is the ending contract of walker.

I agree the bigger expiring is probably more interesting for them. My point was that with Jaric and Buckner, they'd still save on Buckner's expiring and Jaric might be more useful to them than Walker. Do I think they'd rather do Walker? Yes.

[andyhop]

I think you keep either Buckner or Snyder.

Richard goes if you want to have both 2nd rounders on the team or as is possible one of them is a straight replacement,if you keep one in Europe or convert them into a first I'd bring him back.

Smith is the odd one out of Bassy,Gomes and himself if money is tight to resign them all and if Beasley is the pick I would let him walk.

If an extra roster spot becomes needed Madsen gets his buyout and job elsewhere in the organisation.

[theGreatRC]

Personally, I would like to make a trade up, move the 2 second rd picks with walker perhaps for a 1st and a big. Of course trade checker does not account for next year, but a draft day trade of.

(of course it is all based on if teams want it)

Walker+2 2nds for Nene+1st

Walker+2 2nds for Diaw+atl 1st (might need to add more, who knows, Phx has an owner that loves to save money)

Walker+2 2nds for E.Thomas+wash 1st

Just some ideas to save some teams money, we take a little cap hit, but get a better pick and concentrate the draft picks. Anything in the late teen range can bring a decent big.

I would love to make that trade.

[andyhop]

I'd do the Washington trade but wouldn't touch the other two, both Diaw and Nene have contracts that are too long and are overpaid.

Nene is never healthy missing the equivalent of two and a half of the last 4 seasons and is under contract until 2012.

Diaw would be good if he reproduced his form of a couple of years ago ,but he hasn't since and is under contract until 2012 as well.

A late lotto or just outside the lotto pick isn't worth potentially handicapping the teams cap room for.I would rather wait another season and draft the centre next year.

[wolves_fan_82au]

we need too be careful with who we give 3 year deals to just cause they look in there contract year doesnt mean they will continue

anyone remember Troy Hudson

also another thing just remember we have 3 draft picks as well the year after and only 2 roster spots left

[horaceworthy]

Troy Hudson was actually hurt pretty much his entire contract year for us. It was the year before that he crushed souls.

[deeney0]

Being careful is fine as long as it doesn't turn into being trigger shy. I'm not really worried about that, though, I think it's a safe bet that Telfair, Smith, and Gomes are all kept around.

The question in my mind is whether Telfair is signed to a long term contract (5 year/$30mil, give or take), or whether he takes a year at the qualifying offer ($3.5mil) and becomes a UFA in 2009. If he has a monster year, Wolves would have to pony up to keep him in 2009 because 1) he's unrestricted and 2) lots of teams are going to have cap space in 2009. Seems clear to me that its better for the Wolves to sign him long term now (as long as the terms aren't outrageous. I imagine it would be MLE, max.) What's in Bassy's best interest? It's classic risk/reward. He's the type that seems very confident in himself, so I can see him wanting the QO.

[Worm Guts]

(5 year/$30mil, give or take).

No way Telfair gets that much. That would be a terrible deal for the Wolves.

[deeney0]

A MLE sized contract starts at $5.6mil in 2008-09, with max raises over 5 years that's $34mil. That's a comfortable upper bound for what he will command. Anything less than that is a function of supply and demand - how many more desirable FA PGs are there going to be vs. how many teams want to sign PGs. Bassy's QO is $3.5mil - a long term contract would have a first year at least that high. $3.5mil with max raises over 5 years is $21.5mil. That's a comfortable lower bound.

[Worm Guts]

No way he gets the MLE, no way he gets 5 years. I'm thinking a max of 3 years, 12 million. If the Wolves make the QO, I don't think anyone else makes an offer.