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There seems to be a growing consensus here that Al is better suited defending the four and that we need a defensive five to put next to him. I've always thought this and still think this assumption is probably deservingly so, but I'm wondering if there is any statistical proof to back it up.

In other words, is Al that much better defending the four than the five, or is he just bad at defensive period?

If the latter is true, this would be a good argument that you could just have Beasley defend the four and we wouldn't have to worry about his positional concerns.

Dr.Krapinsky wrote:There seems to be a growing consensus here that Al is better suited defending the four and that we need a defensive five to put next to him. I've always thought this and still think this assumption is probably deservingly so, but I'm wondering if there is any statistical proof to back it up.

In other words, is Al that much better defending the four than the five, or is he just bad at defensive period?

If the latter is true, this would be a good argument that you could just have Beasley defend the four and we wouldn't have to worry about his positional concerns.

The proof statistically that I have seen is the 82games opponent data.

this seasonhttp://www.82games.com/0708/07MIN15C.HTM

Last yearhttp://www.82games.com/0607/06BOS13C.HTM

Its hard to read too much into this years numbers due to the limited time he has spent at the 4 and he has been improving throughout the season his numbers defending the 5 so maybe he can continue to get better playing there to make it a non-issue.

I may be able to answer my own question here, but if someone has something to add please do-

The best statistical basis I can find is from 82games using player pairs.

Jefferson paired with Ratliff (145 min)- meaning Jefferson defending the four spot- our team is +1 in ppg 97-96.

Jefferson paired with Smith (599 min)- meaning Jefferson defending the five spot- our team is -10.9 in ppg 95-106.

I realize this sort of analysis is very suspect, but if you think Beasley will be about as good at D as Smith (I think he would be a little better), then the numbers to me show that any added offensive by Beasley would be negated by the defensive loss we would take by having Jefferson defend the 5.

To me this answers my own question and negates the possibility of a 4/5 tandem of Beasley/Jefferson. Beasley would have to play the 3 for us (the majority of the time) and we still would need to draft a defensive 5.

I hope some of you can follow this... just trying to think out loud a little bit.

As I said before, Al is the best center the Wolves have ever had. I think his current defensive weaknesses separate him from a great player to an elite player. I also think he has certainly held his own against many other centers in the league.

If they get Beasley, I'm not going to be heart broken with a front court of him and Al.

There's no such thing as statistical proof.

Gomes plays PF when Jefferson plays center too.

TheFranchise21 wrote:Gomes plays PF when Jefferson plays center too.

I realize that. But there's no way of differentiating when Gomes is at the 3 and when he's at the 4 with Al in the game. On the other hand when Smith and Al are on the court at the same time you know Smith is at the 4 and Al the 5.

Dr. Krapinsky,

Where in L.A. are you?

funkatron101 wrote:As I said before, Al is the best center the Wolves have ever had. I think his current defensive weaknesses separate him from a great player to an elite player. I also think he has certainly held his own against many other centers in the leaguel.

That is probably true but it still isn't saying much given the Wolves' history of centers. He has held his own against some centers this year but he has been toasted by others. Putting a defensive center next to Al should take some of the pressure off of him and let him focus on being the offensive beast that he is.

Theo is a better defender than Smith. Al Jefferson is not a defensive force at the 5 or the 4.

Al is too focused on scoring.

A big difference is the lack of a shot blocker. Al is a decent shot blocker, and a decent man defender, but he is not a weak side shot blocker. Smith and Gomes do not block shots either. So if we were to keep Al at the 5 and bring in a 4 next to him it has to be someone that can block shots.

As far as Beasley is concerned I am still convinced he will have an easier time defending 3's then 4's I do not believe he is 6'9, looks more like 6'7 to me.

GopherIt! wrote:Dr. Krapinsky,

Where in L.A. are you?

5 min north of downtown

Dr.Krapinsky wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



I realize that. But there's no way of differentiating when Gomes is at the 3 and when he's at the 4 with Al in the game. On the other hand when Smith and Al are on the court at the same time you know Smith is at the 4 and Al the 5.

I think there are plenty of times where the lineup is Jefferson, Gomes, McCants/Jaric/Brewer, McCants/Brewer, Telfair/Foye.

In those situations, Gomes is clearly the PF. What I was trying to get at is you should pull the stats from the 82games website how Al defends when Gomes is the PF, like you did when Smith is the PF.

TheFranchise21 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-


I think there are plenty of times where the lineup is Jefferson, Gomes, McCants/Jaric/Brewer, McCants/Brewer, Telfair/Foye.

In those situations, Gomes is clearly the PF. What I was trying to get at is you should pull the stats from the 82games website how Al defends when Gomes is the PF, like you did when Smith is the PF.

ha. you didn't get my explanation at all. Does 82 games have stats that show when Al is at the 4 and Gomes at the 5? Maybe they do. My understanding is that they only have stats showing when they play together- in which case Al is at the four some times and the five some times.

Stats are weak.

Al is offensively a 5. Defensively he is strong, but is not the weak-side shot blocker we need. At 6'10 he is more effective when defended by 4's but can score as a 5.

We just need a strong defender/shot blocker to put next to Al.

Al's a mediocre defensive player at either position. I've long maintained that what the Wolves need from a post player next to Al is someone that can defend the opponent's best 4 or 5, not just a true center. If it isn't the D12's of the world lighting us up, it'll be the Bosh/Dirk types.

horaceworthy wrote:Al's a mediocre defensive player at either position. I've long maintained that what the Wolves need from a post player next to Al is someone that can defend the opponent's best 4 or 5, not just a true center. If it isn't the D12's of the world lighting us up, it'll be the Bosh/Dirk types.

From what I've seen Most of the bigs in this draft certainly don't have the quickness to defend several 4's in the nba. I have no doubt hibbert, Thabeet, and lopez would get manhandled by Dirk and various other 4's in the league. Jordan may have the potential to one day defend these sorts of players but doesn't have it today.

I think Al could still defend the other teams best player in the low post, but something would need to be done to defend quick 4/5's. I sort of disagree\agree that Al is a mediocre defensive player. I think he is fine in and around the basket, but doesn't bring the athletic flair one might want. Jordan could be that guy I guess, but I can't see drafting him at #3 unless the kid truely has Howard\Oden type athleticism when predraft rolls around.

Al is fine as a man defender playing at the 4 holding his opponent to an eFG% of .410 last year and .427 this year.

Compared to .559 last year and .569 this year playing as a 5.

He isn't much of a help defender.

Which leaves us pretty much where we started the Wolves need someone who can guard 5's and play good help defense.

bruceallen61 wrote:From what I've seen Most of the bigs in this draft certainly don't have the quickness to defend several 4's in the nba. I have no doubt hibbert, Thabeet, and lopez would get manhandled by Dirk and various other 4's in the league. Jordan may have the potential to one day defend these sorts of players but doesn't have it today.

Agree, and so do most NBA GMs. Other than KG and Marcus Camby, how many guys are there in the league that can guard both Duncan and Dirk? I think the solution is not one player, but several. The Mavs for example have both Brandon Bass and Eric Dampier. They both play the 5 spot (with Dirk as a 4) against different matchups. Same thing in San Antonio (Horry, Thomas or Udoka next to Duncan.) I would argue that Utah's defensive inconsistency is caused in large part by the fact that they don't have similar defensive role players.

The answer to this issue for the Wolves is not in the draft, IMO, but in adding role players who complement Jefferson well against different matchups.

andyhop wrote:Which leaves us pretty much where we started the Wolves need someone who can guard 5's and play good help defense.

Agreed.