RealGM

Here are McCants and other SG's per 40 numbers this season. If he can limit his mistakes next season and get more minutes what are you willing to pay to keep him in 2 years. Remember this is his first real full season. Check out the types of players who surround him. Every player above McCants is the #1 scoring option when they are on the floor. Virtually every player on the list is a $10m+/yr player with a few exceptions.

Of the other young guys Ellis\gay\Roy\Gordon will all be getting a boost in pay. Kevin Martin already got his 11m/yr pay day. Roy will get maxed. Ellis\Gordon\Gay will all probably get a similar 5\55? contract. McCants is putting up similar per 40 numbers. Next season lets assume he gets more time and makes less stupid mistakes, lets also assume he increases his per40 ppg/rpg/apg slightly. Which I think he can do.

Justify potentially spending this sort of cash on McCants and drafting another guard. I'm all for trading McCants and thats not because I don't think he's good, I just don't see the point in locking up cash in him in the very near future. As it stands now I doubt shaddy would except under 7m/yr and I doubt that number gets any lower next season.

Kobe Bryant, LAL 29.15601023 6.445012788 5.524296675
Kevin Martin, SAC 26.15384615 4.835164835 2.307692308
Dwyane Wade, MIA 25.69190601 4.386422977 7.206266319
Manu Ginobili, SA 25.20900322 6.173633441 5.78778135
Allen Iverson, DEN 25.08313539 2.755344418 6.935866983
Michael Redd, MIL 24.42105263 4.631578947 3.684210526
Tracy McGrady, HOU 23.67567568 5.621621622 6.27027027
Ben Gordon, CHI 23.19018405 3.803680982 3.680981595
Jason Richardson, CHA 22.51308901 5.54973822 3.35078534
Vince Carter, NJ 22.15384615 6.256410256 5.230769231
Rashad McCants, MIN 21.85873606 4.163568773 3.271375465
Paul Pierce, BOS 21.80821918 5.698630137 5.150684932
Rudy Gay, MEM 21.76 6.613333333 2.026666667
Monta Ellis, GS 21.37566138 5.185185185 4.021164021
Joe Johnson, ATL 21.31386861 4.476885645 5.644768856
Mike Dunleavy, IND 21.06442577 5.93837535 3.80952381
Richard Hamilton, DET 20.64139942 3.848396501 4.781341108
Jamal Crawford, NY 20.59701493 2.587064677 4.975124378
Brandon Roy, POR 20.47493404 5.065963061 6.121372032
Stephen Jackson, GS 20.40609137 4.568527919 4.162436548
Ray Allen, BOS 19.56043956 4.065934066 3.406593407
Peja Stojakovic, NO 18.68945869 4.9002849 1.367521368

If he is asking for the kind of money we can't afford to give him then he has to go. If he is asking for a deal that we can live with then we should probably keep him. If he does improve next season to where he is on the level of many of these other players then we should consider signing him because we will be looking for a players with his skill set eventually anyway, why not grab him while you already got him?

The caveat in comparing the per40 numbers of a player who plays 24 minutes a game and a player who players 36 is "Well, why isn't the player playing 24 playing more?" It's not as if Shad has some elite guard playing in front of him. He's got pulled for Greg freaking Buckner the other night for lack of effort, playing in his motherfreaking home town. He's making the same stupid fouls and same stupid turnovers he made at the start of the season.

By the way, you know where Shad ranks in PERper40? 211th. He's behind such guards as Nate Robinson, Stephon Marbury, Beno Udrih, Anthony Carter, Randy Foye... The list goes on.

There's no denying he knows how to put the ball in the basket. But there's more to basketball.

^great post

deeney0 wrote:The caveat in comparing the per40 numbers of a player who plays 24 minutes a game and a player who players 36 is "Well, why isn't the player playing 24 playing more?" It's not as if Shad has some elite guard playing in front of him. He's got pulled for Greg freaking Buckner the other night for lack of effort, playing in his motherfreaking home town. He's making the same stupid fouls and same stupid turnovers he made at the start of the season.

By the way, you know where Shad ranks in PERper40? 211th. He's behind such guards as Nate Robinson, Stephon Marbury, Beno Udrih, Anthony Carter, Randy Foye... The list goes on.

There's no denying he knows how to put the ball in the basket. But there's more to basketball.

I called this out in my original post.

Shads fouling trends have actually improved during the course of the season. Heres how he breaks down in Per40 fouls. Basicly the numbers below are how many games he would have fouled out in if he played a full 40 minutes at his fouling clip for that game.

Nov: 4/12 30%
Dec: 5/14 35%
Jan: 3/14 21%
feb: 2/11 18%
Mar: 1/14 7%

Compared to the many of the rest of the SG's Shad does commit more fouls. Lots of them are moronic frustration fouls too. Which makes it x2 as bad imo. At a glance over 15 players selected from march Shad had roughly 30-50% more fouls per 40 than his respective counterparts and march was by far his best month so far in limiting his fouls. But those fouls he commits are still not enough to have him foul out in a full 40 minutes per game which is the general arguement behind the not getting enough minutes. He has actually improved somewhat in limiting these mistakes this season, but he's not at the spot many other players in the league are.

His Assist to turnover ratio isnt bad for a guy who creates his own shot, but again lots of them are preventable.

I did some moderate trend analysis of players 1st year and foul commitals vs their 2nd year, and noticed a marked improvement on 4/5 that I analyzed. Its hard to say if these past examples are committing the same types of fouls that Shad commits. Its also hard to say if you should give a free pass on Shads first 2 season because of his circumstances.

Personally if I was Wittman I'd just keep him in the game, let him foul out. Or See if he can play smart with his fouls. Benching Shad doesnt seem to work, maybe getting tossed a few times will.

As Deeney implied, PER/40 is a much better indicate of what McCants should be paid. Right now that indicates not much more than the league minimum considering his defensive ineptitude as well.

It's too hard to predict how much he'll improve, however I don't see him being more than around a mid-level player. A good indicater might be this off season. Let's see what Gordon and Ellis and JR Smith get paid. Ellis probably deserves a Kevin Martin type contract. Gordon maybe 6/7 million/per. Smith maybe 3/4 Million per. Right now McCants is probably in the Smith range. In two years hopefully he'll be more in the Gordon range.

I didn't realize he'd improved the stupid fouls that much in March, it didn't seem like it anecdotally. Not sure what to make of that.

I've been up and down about Shad all season. Several times he's put together a string of good games and has me thinking "He's finally got it," but then comes the string of bad games.

No matter how strong he is or how long his arms are for his body, he's still 6'3 (and that might be generous.). To succeed as a 6'3 shooting guard as anything beyond a sixth man roll, you've got to be brilliant in several respects. He's got to make up for his physical limitations on defense by playing smart all of the time. He's got to know when to take it to the basket, when to pass, and when to shoot. He's not there yet, and he's never been there for longer than a few games in a row. And he may never get there.

If it came down to only keeping Foye or Shad on this team, I wouldn't blink before keeping Randy.

I love McCants' game and I think he should always get 30 mpg. I also think Wittman is a weirdo for playing Jaric so much and I think the 6th man role is bad for McCants, that just encourages him to be a chucker, start him with Al and Randy and let him learn the team game with them.

^Devilz, starting Jaric is one of the few coaching moves by that weirdo Wittman that make sense. Jaric is solid in all areas (defense, shooting, ball handling) and complements Foye well. He's no all-star, but he's a solid vet who usually makes the right play on offense and defends at an above average level.

McCants is enigmatic, undersized, and seemingly unable to make his teammates better. Why would you start him unconditionally, even if he was a better defender and team player? I can see making a commitment like that to Brewer, but not to McCants.

I like Shad's game, don't get me wrong. I just don't think he's the second coming of Jerry Stackhouse, or even the next Ben Gordon. I could be wrong, but either way we'll find out where his ceiling is with him as a 6th man.

Dr.Krapinsky wrote:As Deeney implied, PER/40 is a much better indicate of what McCants should be paid. Right now that indicates not much more than the league minimum considering his defensive ineptitude as well.

Meh PER. The problem with using PER in instances like this is that shad isn't realizing his potential full minutes due to being pulled from games because of foul trouble. I'm to lazy to go about and figure out the affect of minutes to PF to PER rating, but if you glance at the formula. You have to notice how heavily minutes factor into the equation.

The difference between this stat being deducted and the other stats being deducted in the PER calculation is that this stat has a max that everyone in the league can get 6. Sure it's weighted vs league averages for fouls, but it's different than the other stats that are deducted from the calculation. The other stats scale differently since theres a larger range.

If you get 2 quick fouls in a few minutes (a McCants specialty) and are pulled from the game you have automatically destroyed your PER rating. Since fouls are affecting 2 parts of the calculation in this case(mpg & PF).
Smart players learn to play in foul trouble(they stop playing D)

Whether he can learn to be less haphazard with more minutes has yet to be seen. I more or less agree with Shad always getting 30mpg, just run him and see what happens imo. I have 0 personal attachment for Shad though.

bruceallen61 wrote:Meh PER. The problem with using PER in instances like this is that shad isn't realizing his potential full minutes due to being pulled from games because of foul trouble. I'm to lazy to go about and figure out the affect of minutes to PF to PER rating, but if you glance at the formula. You have to notice how heavily minutes factor into the

Minutes don't factor in at all actually. Everyone is prorated at 48 mintues/gm. That's why a player like Car Landry who plays 15 minutes a game can have such a high PER (he leads all rookies).

Ya i wouldn't get too crazy with the PER ratings. Especially for Mccants because when he is playing good he gets minutes. When he isn't he gets benched for the majority of the game. Mccants is a two-sided player and the PER rating mostly shows his good side.

Rashad's PER 14.3, that's not all that great. League average every year is 15, which makes Rashad an average-to-slightly below player. Taking into account the good and the bad that he brings to the table, I'd say that's a fairly accurate assessment, not over/underrating him much.

TrentTuckerForever wrote:^Devilz, starting Jaric is one of the few coaching moves by that weirdo Wittman that make sense. Jaric is solid in all areas (defense, shooting, ball handling) and complements Foye well. He's no all-star, but he's a solid vet who usually makes the right play on offense and defends at an above average level.

McCants is enigmatic, undersized, and seemingly unable to make his teammates better. Why would you start him unconditionally, even if he was a better defender and team player? I can see making a commitment like that to Brewer, but not to McCants.

I like Shad's game, don't get me wrong. I just don't think he's the second coming of Jerry Stackhouse, or even the next Ben Gordon. I could be wrong, but either way we'll find out where his ceiling is with him as a 6th man.

Jaric can't score (8 pts in 29 mpg), his shooting is average (36% from 3), his ball handling is weak (he always puts his back to the defender because thats his best weapon for advancing the ball), his defense is below average (20.2 Opp PER at SG). It only looks like he plays the right way because he's decent at playing the passing lanes and getting steals so it looks like he's playing nice D and he can't score on offense so he always passes it making it look like he's a good team player on offense.

McCants makes **** loads of mistakes, but he's the best perimeter scorer on the team and how come Jaric can blow 5 games in a row and Wittman will still gleefully give him 30 minutes the next game, but McCants makes a mistake and he gets benched

and how come its ok to have the defensive, hustle players with no offense in the backcourt but not the front? Wittman sits there with his thumb up his ass while Gomes is getting his face **** by Emeka Okafor repeatedly...why can't Richard or Madsen get any burn? I was so glad when the announcer brought up the same thing that he wanted to see Richard next to AL, made me realize I wasn't crazy for being confused at Wittman's stubborn lack of vision to put a normal sized frontcourt player to match up with a beast like Okafor.

I've lost faith in Witt in a hurry

Dr.Krapinsky wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
Minutes don't factor in at all actually. Everyone is prorated at 48 mintues/gm. That's why a player like Car Landry who plays 15 minutes a game can have such a high PER (he leads all rookies).

Hmm I guess I didn't explain it very well. PF in this equation are "super powers" like spawn!!. Everyone has a set number of fouls they can use and so many minutes to use them. If a player uses them at a faster rate than the normalized league average that affects the rest of the result when its applied to a normalized scale.

I'm not implying this is good/bad or fair/unfair just saying that's why his PER is dragged down so much when looking at other similar players putting up similar per40 ppg/rpg/apg. I just think that of all the correctable mistakes in basketball this must be near the top for a 2 guard. It's not like he needs to jump at guys and contest near the rim and to the fact that every few fouls is some idiotic frustration foul. McCants has mostly failed this season at improving these problems.