MIN/NYK/PHO

[shrink]

Rumors out of NYK is that D'Antonio wants to bring in Diaw and Barbosa to run a similar offense, especially since PHO management doesn't appreciate either, or their very long contracts. The problem is that this would require Marbury, and financially, this means the Suns would need to include Raja Bell to match salaries. Bell is a crucial lynchpin for the Suns, so Marbury's contract is just too large.

A deal that's being discussed on the trade board, especially from bruceallen, is for NYK to trade Marbury to us for more digestible expirings. I put a spin on it:


MIN GIVES: Walker ($9 mil expiring), Buckner ($4 mil expiring), Jaric, #34, 2009 MIA pick (top 10 protected, top 6 protected 2010, then unprotected)
MIN GETS: Marbury ($21 mil expiring), #15

Marbury's burned as many bridges in MIN as in PHO, so he's bought out. MIN moves a useful but slightly overpaid Jaric, and brings the amount of they have coming off the cap to about $31 ($21 for Marbury and $10 for Juwon and Troy). For the pickswap, MIN is in a rebuild now, so they trade what will probably be a better pick next year for a mid lotto now, and grab that good prospect big man at #15.

NYK GIVES: Marbury
NYK GETS: Diaw + Barbosa + Jaric +#34

Gets Marbury out of NYK, and uses his value to add three players that would be great in the D'Antonio scheme. NYK doesn't flinch at salaries, and the addition of Jaric only costs them $13.5 mil .. and $4.5 mil/year seems reasonable for Jaric's production. The #34 is a shot at a guy in the early second round that can be stashed in Europe, and not affect roster space.

PHO GIVES: Diaw + Barbosa + #15
PHO GETS: Walker ($9 mil expiring) + Buckner ($4 mil expiring) + 2009 MIA pick (top 10 protected 2009, top 6 protected 2010, then unprotected)

PHO moves both long contracts for expirings, without touching Raja Bell. While PHO has Shaq and Nash, they are a contender next season, and the pick now won't help them. Defering it a season (as well as its guaranteed salary) starts the rebuild when its needed.

[dunkonu21]

IMO NYK should give more to both teams.

[Basti]

I'd do it

how do buyouts for players work that are on an expiring contract?

[C.lupus]

I agree with dunkonu21, seems a bit NY-friendly. Also, is NY getting our #34? You have both teams giving the pick. It's not bad for us, I'd probably do it but maybe we could get a little more back.

[IcemanMN]

F**k Marbury.

[kandiking]

i love it for the timberwolves.

[Winter Wonder]

My only concern here is giving up the Miami pick. Granted Miami could rebound quickly and be a playoff team in the east rather fast, but then again, they could continue having their woes and be a lottery team for another year or so. Additionally, even if they are in the playoffs, they are quite possibly a pick around the 15 to 18 range again. I am not sure on the prospects in that range for next year, but I think I would be willing to gamble Miami doesn't put it together and the pick will be better.

I would much rather hold on to that pick then pick up the 15 this year, and I am a huge proponent of aquiring more 1st round picks this year due to the number of decent prospects this year. If it were possible to change that with Boston's pick next year, I would be very much in favor of this trade though I don't see enough going to Phoenix (even with getting out from those two contracts) and would think NY has to offer something more.

Regardless, I see NY complaining about Jaric's contract and not being good enough and Pheonix complaining about sending out the best two players and not getting a good player in return.

[the_bruce]

Rumors out of NYK is that D'Antonio wants to bring in Diaw and Barbosa to run a similar offense, especially since PHO management doesn't appreciate either, or their very long contracts. The problem is that this would require Marbury, and financially, this means the Suns would need to include Raja Bell to match salaries. Bell is a crucial lynchpin for the Suns, so Marbury's contract is just too large.

A deal that's being discussed on the trade board, especially from bruceallen, is for NYK to trade Marbury to us for more digestible expirings. I put a spin on it:


MIN GIVES: Walker ($9 mil expiring), Buckner ($4 mil expiring), Jaric, #34, 2009 MIA pick (top 10 protected, top 6 protected 2010, then unprotected)
MIN GETS: Marbury ($21 mil expiring), #15

Marbury's burned as many bridges in MIN as in PHO, so he's bought out. MIN moves a useful but slightly overpaid Jaric, and brings the amount of they have coming off the cap to about $31 ($21 for Marbury and $10 for Juwon and Troy). For the pickswap, MIN is in a rebuild now, so they trade what will probably be a better pick next year for a mid lotto now, and grab that good prospect big man at #15.

NYK GIVES: Marbury + #34
NYK GETS: Diaw + Barbosa + Jaric

Gets Marbury out of NYK, and uses his value to add three players that would be great in the D'Antonio scheme. NYK doesn't flinch at salaries, and the addition of Jaric only costs them $13.5 mil .. and $4.5 mil/year seems reasonable for Jaric's production. The #34 is a shot at a guy in the early second round that can be stashed in Europe, and not affect roster space.

PHO GIVES: Diaw + Barbosa + #15
PHO GETS: Walker ($9 mil expiring) + Buckner ($4 mil expiring) + 2009 MIA pick (top 10 protected 2009, top 6 protected 2010, then unprotected)

PHO moves both long contracts for expirings, without touching Raja Bell. While PHO has Shaq and Nash, they are a contender next season, and the pick now won't help them. Defering it a season (as well as its guaranteed salary) starts the rebuild when its needed.

I find this deal and everything based on the marbury for smaller expirings to be interesting in terms of value theory on trades.

Jaric's value to me is worth ~15m over 3 season as an outgoing piece. A team will get ~15m of value from him. 4m/4m/7m.

NYK is sending out 21m in expiring value to MN in this trade.

MN is sending back 13m in expiring value, or about 8m less this year in expiring value. They basicly push back claiming that extra 8m till jarics final year in difference between the large expiring and the 2 smaller packagable ones. I've been thinking of this a bit and I think doing this sort of deal should be subject to a shop chop rate. Meaning MN should essentially get 15% of marburys value applied to their outgoing value ~3m on 21m. This brings MN's outgoing value to around 16m when viewed from this way.

13m(expirings) + 3m(chop shop) + 4m(jaric play worth) = $20m

When I look at it this way it seems a bit more fair for the NYK/MN part. NYK ends up overpaying Jaric 2m a year @ 2 years, but then ends up with a 7m expiring in 2 years, so they end up netting (7m-4m)3m when you adjust for several factors. I think this is about right when you Add in the fact that this trade could enable NYK to get 3 good fits for their offense

The problem is that PHX fans are pretty against this deal and so are NYK fans since they think Marbury's expiring is "just as good" as the 2 smaller ones" or taking back "useless" jaric isnt worth it. What they fail to factor in is PHX's unwillingness to add in extra parts or take on extra salary. I even looked around a bit to see if other teams could offer this sort of service.

CLE could with Wally + snow (nyk keeps snow)
POR could with Raef + ??
SEA could with Wilcox and Marshall
...I got bored after that

Most teams can offer up a smaller expiring deals, but are they willing to offer up those parts or sacrifice cap space? Will PHX be forced to choke on more salary? Buckner and Walker would provide some use to PHX as opposed to some of the expirings PHX might take back.

The #15 for MIA 1st, MN probably loses value here, PHX gains a bunch. I think the deal saves them 2m, may get them under lux tax +2m, saves them from paying the pick +2m, saves lux tax on that pick +2m. Saves 4-8m next year.

Snyder + Richard may be a better fit in PHX. Richard would provide some defense/rebounding and he's actually pretty athletic\quick for his size. Snyder can run?

Also it "may" be better to do a McCants for #15 and take out the MIA pick. McCants surely gives PHX more win now potential, and is still young enough to be effective in a rebuild. Especially if MN ends up with Mayo...with the #15 MN takes McGee? Foye\mayo\brewer\Al\McGee

[mandurugo]

MIN GIVES: Walker ($9 mil expiring), Buckner ($4 mil expiring), Jaric, #34, 2009 MIA pick (top 10 protected, top 6 protected 2010, then unprotected)
MIN GETS: Marbury ($21 mil expiring), #15

The way I look at it is MN is giving up two guys who don't play for another guy who they don't want to play - so ignore Walker, Buckner, and Marbury. That means they are trading a guy who starts for them, the #34, and the 2009 MIA pick for the #15. Since there is a good chance the MIA pick will be as good or higher than the #15, the wolves are giving up way too many assets that they are actually using or could use. It makes no sense to me. I know there are a lot of fans who think Jaric has negative value, but until some of the players they do like can push him to the bench, I just don't see that reasoning.

[Basti]

-= original quote snipped =-



The way I look at it is MN is giving up two guys who don't play for another guy who they don't want to play - so ignore Walker, Buckner, and Marbury. That means they are trading a guy who starts for them, the #34, and the 2009 MIA pick for the #15. Since there is a good chance the MIA pick will be as good or higher than the #15, the wolves are giving up way too many assets that they are actually using or could use. It makes no sense to me. I know there are a lot of fans who think Jaric has negative value, but until some of the players they do like can push him to the bench, I just don't see that reasoning.

we basically get rid of all our long term contracts that we don't want to have. I know keeping Starbury would kill our chemistry but if we buy him out (and it's required to buy him out in order to finish that deal) we have a good deal. we basically "only" give our 2nd rounder and the MIA pick (which will be a huge gamble considering the east) for a decent pick this year and achieve a huge expiring deal.

and again, I'd do it only if Starbury is bought out immidiatly

[T-HuDfoShizzle]

Agreed, the Knicks need to give more to the Suns but its a great deal for the Wolves. With the 15th pick we could take a project center like Robin Lopez, JaVale McGee, or Roy Hibbert. Plus the cap flexibility in a deep FA class you gotta love it.

[TheFranchise21]

I like that 15th pick. Does anyone know the stipulations/conditions on the MIA pick?

[mandurugo]

I like that 15th pick. Does anyone know the stipulations/conditions on the MIA pick?

According to Shrink: 2009 MIA pick (top 10 protected 2009, top 6 protected 2010, then unprotected)

[shrink]

I've been very reluctant to give up the MIA pick, but I think getting the #15 this year is fair value. We don't want to be continually trolling along in mediocrity, and next year, hopefully, our lottery picks from the last three years will all be healthy, and we can add another one, and one that's just outside it with the #15. That's a young core, and it will be time to see what they can accomplish with Al Jefferson. I think we can find a very solid project center at #15.

For PHO, its in their best interests to wait a year. Rebuilding won't start next year, when they have 34-year old Steve Nash, and one more year on a $20 mil Shaq. Also important, is that Sarver has shown he will go to great lengths to get under the cap. He gave up two firsts and an expiring Kurt Thomas to drop $8 mil. This deal eliminates $48.3 mil over the next three years. Barbosa may have a decent (but long) contract, and Diaw an indecent (and long) contract, but this deal is to save money. A lightly protected first next year is additional cap savings.

Now the final question here is: Is the "given" #15 pick this year worth the risk of the MIA pick being better in the future. Well, I think its a coin flip. Wade will be healty, Marion is there, Haslem can play, and they may be adding Derrick Rose or Beasley. Is that enough to get MIA into the play-offs in the East? Supposedly Riley wants to contend right away -- not rebuild. I don't know if he will succeed , but I think the #15 now is fair.

[Krapinsky]

Can you explain the pick swap between us and phoenix here? How do you perceive the change in value? I'm assuming you think the #15 pick this year is worth more than the Miami pick next year?

One other thing-

Instead of including #34 to NY, I could see NY asking for a first round pick swap- i.e. 3 for 5. Under that scenario would you still do it?

[4ho5ive]

Hell to the no on a 3-to-5 pick swap

[shrink]

Can you explain the pick swap between us and phoenix here? How do you perceive the change in value? I'm assuming you think the #15 pick this year is worth more than the Miami pick next year?

One other thing-

Instead of including #34 to NY, I could see NY asking for a first round pick swap- i.e. 3 for 5. Under that scenario would you still do it?

I wouldn't do this with the 3-to-5 pick swap. I'm very reluctant totrade away a potential (but unlikely) superstar in Mayo, and even if we did trade the pick, I think we could do better with the #3. MIN is piggybacking on the value that Diaw and Barbosa will provide to a team trying to change its image with Walsh and D'Antonio, by using its financial structure to make their NYK-PHO swap possible. NYK would need to continue to make personnel changes, but I think the salary they add for Jaric is made up for in the overall value of the deal to them. The pick is just a little more incentive .. it could go to PHO as well, who'd like a free shot at a second rounder they could stash in Europe.

As to your first question, I tried to answer a little of that in my last paragraph of the previous, but for brevity, I left a lot out.

I think with MIA's team, they have a pretty good chance of making the play-offs in the East, and being the #15 seed in 2009. If not, the pick's protections mean it will be, at best a #10 pick. I don't think even the 2009 worst case scenario is a big change in value. If they aren't even in the Top 20, and their pick gets defered to 2010, I think a young Wade, a 2nd year Derrick Rose/Beasley, and a big free agent (Marion's deal comes off the books), makes them a good chance at making the play-offs in the East. It gets garder and harder to predict when you get farther out, but there is still Top 6 protected, so MIN's not risking giving up a Beasley or Rose here. I think the chances that Riley's MIA will be really bad for three years is too slim to me.

However, the point I was trying to make is that I think the 2008 #15 is more valuable to MIN right now, and the 2009 protected MIA pick is more valuable to the Suns. I think its inclusion adds value to both teams.

[karch34]

I like it. Obviously we buy Marbury out, but essentially we're talking about moving two smaller expirings and our worst contract for a big expiring. Great value there. We're trading a possible 1st next year for a reasonably high one this year in a deep draft and including a 2nd round pick that we'd probably use on a player to stash overseas. With the protection it's unknown when the Miami pick will come and what the actual value would be. Additionally, this frees up some more roster spots as well which should allow our two firsts and one second to all contribute this year.

[john2jer]

I like that 15th pick. Does anyone know the stipulations/conditions on the MIA pick?

Top ten protected through 2011, I believe. So really it's that, "I'll pay you for a hamburger tomorrow that I eat today," or however it goes.

[PeeDee]

Top ten protected through 2011, I believe. So really it's that, "I'll pay you for a hamburger tomorrow that I eat today," or however it goes.

Nope, it's top ten protected next year, top 6 protected the year after that, and unprotected after that.