I am mixed when it comes to Lopez v Mayo but if we decide to get Mayo, just trade down...
3 Lopez (trade down, save cash)
4 Sonics (The Sonics take Bayless because they have Durant at SG)
5 OJ Mayo (They will trade up because they have too many guards: Critterton, Lowry, Conley, Navarro, Gay)
Draft Lopez, but TRADE DOWN for Mayo
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Draft Lopez, but TRADE DOWN for Mayo
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cpfsf
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shrink
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I think you're on the right track, one I went down last night, but I think trading down is risky.
Suppose:
MIN TRADES the #3 to SEA for the #4 + Sene
SEA posters have said that many of them think that if they had the #3, its possible they would go with Lopez to fill the "big hole at center." It seems to me that PG is a bigger hole (since they are comfortable with Durant at SG), but they made the point that they have several picks, and could perhaps use Wilcox to get a mid teens pick and draft one of the two decent PG's in that spot.
Trading the #3 to SEA could mean Lopez, Mayo OR Bayless could get picked. If they took Bayless that'd be great, but I doubt they'd give us Sene to make sure WE didn't do it. Of course, if we knew that was who they wanted, we could take the terrifying course of picking Bayless and then swapping him after the pick, but ...!
Anyway, if they took OJ Mayo or Lopez, I'd be sad, and we could not trade the #4 to MEM for the #5. They'd undoubtedly take Lopez if he was still around, and if not, they'd take Mayo over Bayless (what do they need ANOTHER PG for?)
However, if SEA took Bayless, and we were willing to risk it, we could do this:
MIN TRADES #4 to MEM for #5 + Crittendon, Lowry or #28
Memphis choose Lopez, and we still get OJ Mayo, but we add Sene and the MEM perk.
This would all hinge on MIN being sure SEA would go for Bayless. I don't think we can know that.
Suppose:
MIN TRADES the #3 to SEA for the #4 + Sene
SEA posters have said that many of them think that if they had the #3, its possible they would go with Lopez to fill the "big hole at center." It seems to me that PG is a bigger hole (since they are comfortable with Durant at SG), but they made the point that they have several picks, and could perhaps use Wilcox to get a mid teens pick and draft one of the two decent PG's in that spot.
Trading the #3 to SEA could mean Lopez, Mayo OR Bayless could get picked. If they took Bayless that'd be great, but I doubt they'd give us Sene to make sure WE didn't do it. Of course, if we knew that was who they wanted, we could take the terrifying course of picking Bayless and then swapping him after the pick, but ...!
Anyway, if they took OJ Mayo or Lopez, I'd be sad, and we could not trade the #4 to MEM for the #5. They'd undoubtedly take Lopez if he was still around, and if not, they'd take Mayo over Bayless (what do they need ANOTHER PG for?)
However, if SEA took Bayless, and we were willing to risk it, we could do this:
MIN TRADES #4 to MEM for #5 + Crittendon, Lowry or #28
Memphis choose Lopez, and we still get OJ Mayo, but we add Sene and the MEM perk.
This would all hinge on MIN being sure SEA would go for Bayless. I don't think we can know that.
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If we think mayo is a stud, the legit 3 then we grab him and say goodnight. We only trade down if the guys are even so we cannot screw it up.
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invno1 wrote:Pat Riley is asking why Mayo isnt in the top 2.
Well, if Riley wants to pick Mayo with his #2, I'll try hard to contain my disappointment. I'd figure this was all gamesmanship, but really, what does he have to gain? Cover his bets in case Beasley flops in the workouts, so he could tell Mayo "I loved you all along?"
If Mchale heard this quote, I certainly hope he's on the phone right away. It seems to me I read a few days ago that if Riley got the #2 pick and Rose was gone, he'd try to trade the pick.
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cpfsf
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Here is my reasoning behind this.
http://www.nba.com/features/draft2008_consensus.html
Most believe Lopez would be a perfect fit in Minnesota. Now, both Lopez and Mayo would be great. If we drafted Lopez, I would be happy with a Lopez-Jefferson combo. It is pretty clear Seattle wants Bayless which seems understandable. So that leaves us with Memphis. If Memphis does not decide to trade up, hey we still have Lopez and he would work great with Jefferson. If Memphis does trade up then we save cash.
http://www.nba.com/features/draft2008_consensus.html
Most believe Lopez would be a perfect fit in Minnesota. Now, both Lopez and Mayo would be great. If we drafted Lopez, I would be happy with a Lopez-Jefferson combo. It is pretty clear Seattle wants Bayless which seems understandable. So that leaves us with Memphis. If Memphis does not decide to trade up, hey we still have Lopez and he would work great with Jefferson. If Memphis does trade up then we save cash.
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cpfsf
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On NBA.com, they have 10 different NBA mock drafts from sites such as NBC, SI, and ESPN. Of the 5 mock drafts where we picked Lopez 3rd, Seattle ended up drafting Bayless 4th.
This is probably because Seattle has Petro, Sene, Wilcox, and Collison to play the PF/C positions. All of these bigs are aged 27 and under. At SG they have Kevin Durant and at SF they have Jeff Green. They have Durant as the starting SG so Mayo would not have that big of a role. At PG, they have Earl Watson (28) and Luke Ridnour (27). Both of these PG
This is probably because Seattle has Petro, Sene, Wilcox, and Collison to play the PF/C positions. All of these bigs are aged 27 and under. At SG they have Kevin Durant and at SF they have Jeff Green. They have Durant as the starting SG so Mayo would not have that big of a role. At PG, they have Earl Watson (28) and Luke Ridnour (27). Both of these PG
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This is a bad idea, even if it worked out, it's not worth the risk.
We tried this exact same thing with houston and roy/foye 2 years ago and it blew up in our faces.
If we would've just drafted the consensus BPA, rudy gay, who should've went third to the bobcats instead of Stash McBlownknee, instead of getting greedy for a crap incentive to trade (rumored to be luther head), we would be alot better off.
This year we better just draft the Best Player Available, (which is OJ Mayo by a wide margin both in actual college production and in future potential) and walk away elated. We have more than enough future draft assets that down the road we won't have enough roster space or playing time for them all. Another late 1st rounder or early 2nd (which is all we'd be lucky enough to get in a trade down) isn't going to do much for this team. If we panic and reach for a guy we know has limited potential but fills a need (Lopez) or an unproven Euro we know has limited athletic upside (galinari) it will be the nail in the coffin for any faith I have in the future success of this franchise.
Draft Mayo, package some assets (future picks, 2nd rounders, mccants, expiring deals) to get the whoever the braintrust feels is the best fit at Center next to Al. The Knicks at 6, New Jersey at 10, and Indiana at 11 all are rebuilding and not happy with their draft position, have contracts they'd like to lose, and might bite if we offer them the right combination. There are also teams in the late teens and early 20's who are cash strapped or could use a scorer like McCants.
Also if we pass on Lopez he could very easily slip all the way to Charlotte at 9.
Look at all the quality big men projected to go 10 or later (in projected order of picking):
10-20
D. Jordan (rumored promise at 5, but seriously who is that stupid?)
M Speights
J. McGee
K Koufos
20-25
R Hibbert
25-35
R. Lopez
J. Thompson
A Ajinca
D Hardin
N Pekovic
Ryan Anderson
That is 11 right there, I bet 3 are still available at 31. There is not much other than big men to value in the 2nd round. Mario Chalmers and Wayne Ellington are the top guards projected to be around at 31, not alot of value there, they wouldn't crack our rotation. Do the smart thing and take Mayo at 3 and the big men at 31 and 34, or if there is one Center they are sold on who is a reasonable value, use some assets to trade up for him. McCants, Miami pick, boston pick, 2 high 2nd rounders, 12 million in expiring deals, big trade exception, more than enough assets to get it done.
We tried this exact same thing with houston and roy/foye 2 years ago and it blew up in our faces.
If we would've just drafted the consensus BPA, rudy gay, who should've went third to the bobcats instead of Stash McBlownknee, instead of getting greedy for a crap incentive to trade (rumored to be luther head), we would be alot better off.
This year we better just draft the Best Player Available, (which is OJ Mayo by a wide margin both in actual college production and in future potential) and walk away elated. We have more than enough future draft assets that down the road we won't have enough roster space or playing time for them all. Another late 1st rounder or early 2nd (which is all we'd be lucky enough to get in a trade down) isn't going to do much for this team. If we panic and reach for a guy we know has limited potential but fills a need (Lopez) or an unproven Euro we know has limited athletic upside (galinari) it will be the nail in the coffin for any faith I have in the future success of this franchise.
Draft Mayo, package some assets (future picks, 2nd rounders, mccants, expiring deals) to get the whoever the braintrust feels is the best fit at Center next to Al. The Knicks at 6, New Jersey at 10, and Indiana at 11 all are rebuilding and not happy with their draft position, have contracts they'd like to lose, and might bite if we offer them the right combination. There are also teams in the late teens and early 20's who are cash strapped or could use a scorer like McCants.
Also if we pass on Lopez he could very easily slip all the way to Charlotte at 9.
Look at all the quality big men projected to go 10 or later (in projected order of picking):
10-20
D. Jordan (rumored promise at 5, but seriously who is that stupid?)
M Speights
J. McGee
K Koufos
20-25
R Hibbert
25-35
R. Lopez
J. Thompson
A Ajinca
D Hardin
N Pekovic
Ryan Anderson
That is 11 right there, I bet 3 are still available at 31. There is not much other than big men to value in the 2nd round. Mario Chalmers and Wayne Ellington are the top guards projected to be around at 31, not alot of value there, they wouldn't crack our rotation. Do the smart thing and take Mayo at 3 and the big men at 31 and 34, or if there is one Center they are sold on who is a reasonable value, use some assets to trade up for him. McCants, Miami pick, boston pick, 2 high 2nd rounders, 12 million in expiring deals, big trade exception, more than enough assets to get it done.
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