The NBA's final 4 and draft strategy

[TrentTuckerForever]

The Spurs, Lakers, Celtics and Pistons:

- have big men who are long, athletic and multi-talented

- have role players who can shoot and defend their positions

- all have at least one perimeter player who can manufacture a shot to save a possession, usually by taking advantage of the hand-check rules (the only exception to this is Detroit. They have Billups, who's a great shot-maker, but not really a creator in last-second situations

So based on those observations, who should the Wolves draft? Mayo (he's a creator or will be based on the projections), Randolph (5 years from now could be a Sheed or KG-type of face-up 4), or Jordan (biggest risk, but has the physical tools to be a difference-making big.)

* And maybe we should wait another year or two before we put McHale on spit for drafting Brewer. If he ends up looking like Prince, Bowen or Posey, he'd be one heck of a pick.

[Devilzsidewalk]

I'd simplify it to:

All have elite 2 way players, and good 2 way role players(2 way meaning they're a benefit on offense and defense both:

Detroit: Rasheed, Billups, Prince, Rip, Maxiell, McDyess, Stuckey
LA: Kobe, Fisher, Odom, Gasol, Vujacic, Farmar
Boston: Rondo, KG, Pierce, Allen (sometimes), Posey, PJ Brown, House
San Antonio: Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Bowen, Horry, Finley (sometimes)

compared to MN:

Gomes sort of I guess.

liabilities on offense: Madsen, Brewer, Richard, Buckner, Jaric
liabilities on defense: Jefferson, Foye, McCants, Smith

[TrentTuckerForever]

I'd simplify it to:

All have elite 2 way players, and good 2 way role players(2 way meaning they're a benefit on offense and defense both:

Detroit: Rasheed, Billups, Prince, Rip, Maxiell, McDyess, Stuckey
LA: Kobe, Fisher, Odom, Gasol, Vujacic, Farmar
Boston: Rondo, KG, Pierce, Allen (sometimes), Posey, PJ Brown, House
San Antonio: Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Bowen, Horry, Finley (sometimes)

compared to MN:

Gomes sort of I guess.

liabilities on offense: Madsen, Brewer, Richard, Buckner, Jaric
liabilities on defense: Jefferson, Foye, McCants, Smith

Sure, makes sense. I think the obvious 'elite' guys in this draft are Rose and Beasley, and possibly Mayo. Randolph and Jordan COULD be elite, based on their physical skills. Someone selected lower in the draft will probably develop to that level, but that's such a crapshoot... it's easy to look back on it now, but on draft day 2003 there were reasons Josh Howard went after Zarko Carbarkaba, Reese Gaines and Dahantay Jones (let alone Ndubi Ebi.) Past the Duncans and Yaos and LeBrons, you just never know in the draft.

[Devilzsidewalk]

also would add I believe Foye, McCants, Brewer, and Jefferson are all capable of being 2 way players if they can accept the criticism of their deficiencies and work hard to improve

[revprodeji]

I was just going to post your last post after reading your first post.

I also think Foye will not be a defensive problem if given a full season. Coming back from a knee injury he likely did not push it as hard as he could. Jefferson is not a liability on defense, he just is not KG and needs a big next to him. Hardly a liability.
Brewer will be fine.

Coaching and maturity are the greatest needs.

[Devilzsidewalk]

how do you explain Jefferson's 19.8 defensive PER and an almost unheard of +12.1 pts per 100 possessions when he's on the floor

[revprodeji]

stats are limited. Defensive stats reflect more of the team as a whole than an individual. If you give Al a big next to him that helps him on the boards, help him on defense with weak side shot blocking and then give him guards that understand rotation as well as helping on the block. He is not a liability.

[Devilzsidewalk]

sure, limited to a point, but those numbers are atrocious

[theGreatRC]

I like the Brewer comparison to Posey.

Sure, Brewer may not be the shooter or clutch player Posey is, but Brewer was taking a good amount of charges and got his hands everywhere, things that Posey does best.

I still think we take Mayo and run, I could see us as a Jazz type team in the future(Great PG and great PF), with a defensive minded SF(Brewer), and maybe we could trade those second round picks for a C with range(Kofous)

Hopefully we don't fall short like the Jazz have their whole tenure, we should have an upgraded version of SG(IF Foye becomes the guy we were waiting for him to be), I think we could pull this off.

[andyhop]

how do you explain Jefferson's 19.8 defensive PER and an almost unheard of +12.1 pts per 100 possessions when he's on the floor

Al last season with the Celtics he had an opponents PER of 13.1 while playing PF, for reference KG's opponents PER last year was 14.7 at PF, so was Al better than KG defensively last year and indeed probably the best defensive PF in the league or are the stats an imperfect reflection of defensive prowess?

Look at this years numbers and Al as a PF held his man to shooting 40 % from the field.That was in very limited time at the position but look at last season he held his man to 41% FG.Al can defend his man fine at the PF position.He just isn't a help defender.

The defensive rating numbers put the following players as the Wolves best 3 defenders this year as Madsen,Gerald Green and Antoine.The best defensive guard on our roster is McCants.Do any of those players ratings make you believe that the stats identify true individual defensive play rather than team and match up factors being a bigger factor.

[TrentTuckerForever]

I like the Brewer comparison to Posey.

Sure, Brewer may not be the shooter or clutch player Posey is, but Brewer was taking a good amount of charges and got his hands everywhere, things that Posey does best.

I still think we take Mayo and run, I could see us as a Jazz type team in the future(Great PG and great PF), with a defensive minded SF(Brewer), and maybe we could trade those second round picks for a C with range(Kofous)

Hopefully we don't fall short like the Jazz have their whole tenure, we should have an upgraded version of SG(IF Foye becomes the guy we were waiting for him to be), I think we could pull this off.

Good points on Posey/Brewer... although I think you have to be careful comparing Posey the veteran to Brewer the rookie. Posey didn't come into the league as the shooter or clutch glue guy that he is now.

I hate the Jazz, so I hope that comparison is off track... but man alive, I'd love for Foye or Mayo to become Deron Williams!

[Tekkenlaw]

They remind me more of the Spurs.

Randy Foye=Tony Parker, 20-6 type point guard
OJ Mayo=Manu
Corey Brewer=Bruce bowen, lock down perimeter defense
Al Jefferson=Tim Duncan, dominant big that relies on finesse and footwork rather than athleticism

Now we just need to draft Omer Asik or another foreign center to take on the Oberto role.

[revprodeji]

I see that too. Good call.

Big difference is the vets on the bench, the defensive focus and a very good coach.

[revprodeji]

Gomes would fill the big-shot bob roll.

[Devilzsidewalk]

Al last season with the Celtics he had an opponents PER of 13.1 while playing PF, for reference KG's opponents PER last year was 14.7 at PF, so was Al better than KG defensively last year and indeed probably the best defensive PF in the league or are the stats an imperfect reflection of defensive prowess?

Look at this years numbers and Al as a PF held his man to shooting 40 % from the field.That was in very limited time at the position but look at last season he held his man to 41% FG.Al can defend his man fine at the PF position.He just isn't a help defender.

The defensive rating numbers put the following players as the Wolves best 3 defenders this year as Madsen,Gerald Green and Antoine.The best defensive guard on our roster is McCants.Do any of those players ratings make you believe that the stats identify true individual defensive play rather than team and match up factors being a bigger factor.

good post, but Al played mostly center and mostly poor defense at center. I stand my my original assertion that he's a liability.

He's way better at PF, we've all been preaching that, but thus far he's been a center. And as of today he's still a center, and if they draft OJ Mayo he'll continue to be a center and a defensive liability barring significant improvement.

by PER, the Wolves are a bad defensive team. I'd say that's spot on. The ratings have that trio as the best defensive trio on the team, but still below average from a league-wide perspective.

they may very well be the best 3 defensive players too, if I had to rank the team, I'd have a hell of a time, because none of them stick out as particularly good defenders.

[revprodeji]

Mayo would improve our team defense. Also, he does not change Al's position. If anything Lopez would keep Al at the 5 because I doubt his strength our ability to defend the bigger 5's.

[TrentTuckerForever]

They remind me more of the Spurs.

Randy Foye=Tony Parker, 20-6 type point guard
OJ Mayo=Manu
Corey Brewer=Bruce bowen, lock down perimeter defense
Al Jefferson=Tim Duncan, dominant big that relies on finesse and footwork rather than athleticism

Now we just need to draft Omer Asik or another foreign center to take on the Oberto role.

Interesting... what makes the Spurs unique is their defensive toughness and smarts. Ginobli and Bowen fight over picks and stick to offensive players better than most any swingmen in the league. Brewer and Mayo have that potential, but a long way to go before they get to that level.

And Jefferson is no Duncan when it comes to the defensive end, not by a long shot (Tekken, I know you meant more on offense, nothing personal.) The Duncan comparisons just drive me nuts; on one of the draft threads recently someone compared Brook Lopez to Duncan on the defensive end, which made my head hurt. In a weird way we tend to underrate him because he's so low key. Compare Duncan to Malone, or McHale, all time greats. I wouldn't compare any current young players or prospects to him any more than I would compare Mayo to Michael Jordan. Duncan is that good.

[Devilzsidewalk]

the Spurs comparison is ok, but I compare the Wolves to the 2005 eastern conference all stars:

Foye = Wade
McCants = Arenas
Brewer = Grant Hill
Jefferson = well, Jefferson is the pinnacle, you can't really improve
Chris Richard = Ben Wallace

[horaceworthy]

Mayo would improve our team defense. Also, he does not change Al's position. If anything Lopez would keep Al at the 5 because I doubt his strength our ability to defend the bigger 5's.

Disagree on both counts. Mayo's defensive intensity came and went throughout the season, and he isn't going to come in and make a huge impact on a team's overall defense. We have yet to see how he'll react to spending more time on an island against NBA level perimeter players (where it's easier to get into the lane than college due to better spacing), or how he'll react to the screen/roll heavy offenses used in the NBA. His athleticism isn't exactly overwhelming, and he plays a position where it's difficult to make an impact due to the handchecking rules. It's very, very tough for a perimeter player to come in and improve a team's overall defense. Mayo's got good qualities, but let's ease up on the hype a bit.

Lopez would definitely shift Al down to the 4. He's bigger and bulkier (Al's probably closer to 235-240 these days than the 256 he's listed at, that weight's from a couple years ago, before he got in shape). Lopez is 7'0" 260 and has the requisite length and bulk to defend most NBA centers, certainly moreso than Al.

[Worm Guts]

Mayo would improve our team defense. Also, he does not change Al's position. If anything Lopez would keep Al at the 5 because I doubt his strength our ability to defend the bigger 5's.

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