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http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008 ... aft-080617

He's got us at #3 taking Mayo, but ...

The skinny: The Timberwolves remain the most difficult team at the top of the draft to peg.

As of Sunday, the word out of Minnesota was that the team will draft O.J. Mayo or Michael Beasley -- whichever is on the board. Though Mayo doesn't fit a need, he likely would be the best player available (if Beasley is gone), and that appears to be swaying Minnesota in his direction.

A lot of trade talk surrounds this pick. The Knicks, Clippers, Bucks and Trail Blazers all have tried to maneuver to get this pick. The Bucks may have the best chance if they offer Yi Jianlian or Charlie Villanueva as part of a package.

The other wild card appears to be Italian prospect Danilo Gallinari, of whom Minnesota thinks highly. Sources say the Wolves will get a workout with him this week.

This is interesting too:

Chad Ford wrote: The Heat will travel back to Chicago this weekend to watch Mayo again, and there's a strong chance that Mayo will visit Miami in the next week.

This is the first time I have heard Yi as a possibility in an article. It would generate interest and probably add fans if we got Yi. Much better than Charlie V.

Yi is interesting, but at the same time it comes from Chad Ford.

Rather have Bogut, but 8+Yi would be enough.

How would Yi fit our roster? As a sf?
This trade plus picking Lopez @ #8 would have to make us the tallest team in the league:

Lopez
Al
Yi
Brewer
Foye

no way pick beasley or mayo and trade the second rounders to get Alexis and we will be in the game..

Yi has more value if we trade him to a team that can benefit from his huge marketing advantage with China, so I'd prefer to trade him.

I got into a long discussion with GSW on the boards last week when a source suggeted the Warriors were trying hard to get Yi, and had offered Brandon Wright and the 14th pick. GSW fans said, "No way! Either/Or!" and they are correct that they would be giving up more talent (though Yi's game might fit the warriors). I tried to convince them (unsuccessfully), that the NBA is a business, and Yi would sell so much GSW merchandise in China and SF that this would not be impossible.

I wonder if the same offer could be had from LAC, with another city with strong economic ties to China? MIN simply can't get the most economically out of Yi.

I don't want to deal Mayo, but it would be hard to say "No" to a package like

#8 + #14 + Julian Wright

#8 + #7 + (pick return)

karch34 wrote:Yi is interesting, but at the same time it comes from Chad Ford.

Ditto. I was surprised though that he (and some other writers) don't see Mayo as a fit. Are they so locked into the idea of a straight #1 with a combo guard? I think Mayo helps Foye in his weaknesses, and as a tandem, they'd be hard for other teams to defend both. What's so wrong about having two combo-guards with play-making abilities?

Any interest in trading down to #6 and picking up David Lee?

drj wrote:Any interest in trading down to #6 and picking up David Lee?

Sure, if we had the 5th pick. But the Knicks don't have the value to move up to #3.

deeney0 wrote:

drj wrote:Any interest in trading down to #6 and picking up David Lee?

Sure, if we had the 5th pick. But the Knicks don't have the value to move up to #3.

Fair enough if you are not interested in Lee and #6. But I think you are HIGHLY overrating the value of #3 versus #6

If history is any guide, you have to look at the following precedents:
1. 2006: Minnesota-Portland #6 (Roy) for #7 (Foye) plus cash.
That's just cash to swap #6 for #7--I think that shows how far off your hypothetical #5 for #6 plus Lee scenario was
2. 2005: Portland-Utah #3 (Deron Williams) for #6 (Webster) plus #27 (Kleiza) and conditional 2006 first rounder from Detroit (Joel Freeland)
That is a perfect precedent, #3 for #6 swap. So you have to compare value of Lee to value of Kleiza plus Freeland. Strikes me as pretty much right on.

Again, fair enough if you are not interested in Lee and #6. But historically that is fair value.

It's hard to use history as a guide, every draft is different. Here, the dropoff between Mayo and the field is huge, too huge for David Lee to make up the value. Rumors have Milwaukee offering Bogut+8 or Yi+8 (albeit only if Beasley is there instead of Mayo, but that's looking like a possibility), so Lee+6 just doesn't cut it

for any other team Lee + 6 would be fair value for the 3. But our best player plays the same position.

Craig Smith was easily one of our 5 best players last season and he rarely played because he plays the same position as Big Al. Thus, no need for lee. If you would give him up for Bayless instead of Mayo, perhaps the Sonics would consider a trade.

drj wrote:2. 2005: Portland-Utah #3 (Deron Williams) for #6 (Webster) plus #27 (Kleiza) and conditional 2006 first rounder from Detroit (Joel Freeland)
That is a perfect precedent, #3 for #6 swap. So you have to compare value of Lee to value of Kleiza plus Freeland. Strikes me as pretty much right on.

Ask Portland how they feel about that trade now. They could've had Williams or Paul and now all they have are players that their fans are constantly trying to pawn off on other teams; hoping to dupe someone like they got duped.

deeney0 wrote:It's hard to use history as a guide, every draft is different.

True but history is still the best guide we have to trade values.

deeney0 wrote: Here, the dropoff between Mayo and the field is huge, too huge for David Lee to make up the value.

Not sure I agree with this. Personally I see the first tier being Rose and Beasley, then a big dropoff to the second tier of Mayo and Bayless, and then a medium dropoff to the third tier including guys like Lopez, Love, Gordon, and Gallinari.

Obviously a lot depends on who McHale wants. If McHale wants one of the third tier guys ANYWAY then you are getting your guy plus something extra (which was exactly the situation of Portland when they traded down from #3 to #6--they wanted Webster anyway, and realized they could get extra value from the #3 pick. So they got there guy plus a little extra.)

deeney0 wrote: Rumors have Milwaukee offering Bogut+8 or Yi+8 (albeit only if Beasley is there instead of Mayo, but that's looking like a possibility), so Lee+6 just doesn't cut it

Well obviously those "rumors" involve better offers than Lee plus #6. I'm not disputing that. That said I don't think those rumors are at all realistic.
If you get those Milwaukee offers congratulations, you should take them.
If not, I still think Lee plus #6 is fair value.

Is the drop off from Deron Williams to Webster less than from Mayo to Gallinari / Love? I doubt it. Mayo is probably going to be about as good as Brandon Roy, but I'll be surprised if he's as good as Williams. David Lee is extremely productive, more so than the Rhino, and to me you'd have to consider it. Mayo's college stats say that he could be vastly overrated, so, while I see the talent he has, I am wary of taking him, especially if you can pick up a productive young veteran plus a more productive (though less exciting) rookie. It's about the wins, not the hype.

Sure, in hindsight. But you've got to go with the information you've got at the time. Right now, the dropoff looks huge.

PeeDee wrote:

drj wrote:2. 2005: Portland-Utah #3 (Deron Williams) for #6 (Webster) plus #27 (Kleiza) and conditional 2006 first rounder from Detroit (Joel Freeland)
That is a perfect precedent, #3 for #6 swap. So you have to compare value of Lee to value of Kleiza plus Freeland. Strikes me as pretty much right on.

Ask Portland how they feel about that trade now. They could've had Williams or Paul and now all they have are players that their fans are constantly trying to pawn off on other teams; hoping to dupe someone like they got duped.

Well sure, both Williams and Paul have developed into superstars, far beyond what most people expected of them at draft time. In every draft there is always 'the one that got away'--the star who gets drafted too low.

Ask Milwaukee or Atlanta how they feel about taking Bogut and Marvin #1 and #2 in that draft. Hey, they could have traded down to #4 and nabbed Chris Paul! Does that make #4 the most valuable pick in the draft? Hardly!

You can't judge the value of a draft pick (#3, #6, etc.) by the fact that some guys prove to exceed expectations and some guys don't. That's something you can only come to know years later. For now the question is what is fair value for #3. I think a nearby pick (#5-#7) plus a solid rotation player is fair value.

Think of it this way. Suppose McHale wants to draft Gallinari anyway (hypothetical scenario). You can now choose between:
1) Draft Gallinari at #3, and wind up with: Gallinari
or
2) Trade down for Lee and #6, and wind up with: Gallinari and Lee

Now maybe you can get an even better offer from the Clips. But surely you can see the advantage of 2 over 1!

deeney0 wrote:Sure, in hindsight. But you've got to go with the information you've got at the time. Right now, the dropoff looks huge.

In reputation, the dropoff is huge, that is true. I do think Mayo could easily be very good, but his all around college stats are not encouraging. There are some red flags that make me want to turn in a different direction, especially if he is highly coveted by other teams. Look up the John Hollinger draft analysis from January or February at ESPN.com. He has a "system" that has some historical evidence to back him up that does not bode well for OJ. That doesn't mean Hollinger is right, but it sure got me looking in a different direction.