DX-eight rules for draft success.
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 4:37 am
Of the 84 big men drafted in the top quarter of the round through 2003, 48% have been marginal starters or worse, 16% have become solid starters, and 37% have become stars.
Of the 20 point guards drafted in the top quarter, only two (10%) have been complete busts, 25% have become solid bench players/marginal starters, 20% have become solid starters, and 45% have become stars.
Of the 45 wing players drafted in the top quarter of the round, 26% have been marginal starters or worse, 29% have become solid starters, and 44% have become stars.
Point guards and wings both give you a much better shot at solid contribution five years out from the draft. So a GM has to think long and hard about spending his team’s coveted lottery pick on a big man who does not look like a sure-fire superstar.
I don't agree with that methodology. IF you're going by these numbers they've given: 37% of 84 big men drafted in the top quarter of the 1st round are stars, vs 45% of 20 PGs or 44% of wing men, then I wouldn't think it'd be too crazy to take your chances with the big men. If you land one you'll have a rarer commodity and theoretically a more impactful player.
sure it sucks to draft a bust like Araujo instead of a star like Iguodala, but it'd also suck to draft a solid, but unspectacular player like Josh Childress and miss out on Al Jefferson. You just have to do your homework and look for a guy you can develop.
At any rate, a team shouldn't be scared to draft a position based on other teams' or their own past bad decisions.
If Atlanta was too traumatized after striking out on an undersized center in Shelden Williams, then they could have missed out on another undersized center in Al Horford the next year.
Golden State spent 3 lotto picks on big men, Biedrins, Peanut Butter O'Bryant, and Diogu. If they would've taken the highest rated guard or swingman at the time of each pick, they should've gone Jameer Nelson instead of Beans, Gerald Green instead of Diogu, and Redick or Carney instead of POB. It can go both ways and does. If Seattle would not have spent 3 picks on Sene, Swift, and Petro, and gotten Ronnie Brewer, Kleiza, and Josh Smith, would they be better off? Of course they would. I rest my case. Wait, what? Stop reading this! AH I said stop!