The Clipper Conspiracy and the #2 + #3 Picks
Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 7:37 pm
Many odd things have happened leading up to this draft. Riley knocking Beasley. Mayo in a secret workout session. Odd trade rumors. I think I've put my finger on what's going on behind the scenes, and it all starts with the Clippers.
1. LAC wants OJ Mayo, bad! This should come as no surprise. The hometown kid may have been in the dreams of Clippers fans and management for years, ever since he started getting national news in junior high, and demanded he play college ball in front of his home fans. He wants to be a star, and LA is the place to do it. Mayo could be a monsterous cash cow for the Clipper's organization, selling season tickets and new merchandise. What player in the draft has the local media punch and charisma to turn LA fans enamored with an aging Kobe towards the Clipper's .. the Laker's ugly sister that no wants to date? The Clippers believe that's Mayo.
2. LAC will offer a lot for Mayo! Here's where it gets fun. The Clippers are on the record saying that no one on their team is untouchable. Not the pick, not Kaman, not Brand, no one. It makes sense, considering how much value he'd have if he stayed in LA.
3. MIA asks, "Will you offer more than Beasley? As soon as the Heat got the second pick, Riley's been in overdrive, saying this isn't a two-man draft, saying that the #2 is a valuable trade asset, and questioning Beasley's position, character, length and drive. Why diminish your own asset? It's not for other team's consumption -- its for Heat fans. In the month before the draft, Riley doesn't want Miami fans and media to get so attached to Beasley that no trade would be acceptable. As rev points out, Riley doesn't have many years left, and he has said he wants vets to compete right away -- Brand would be a perfect fit. MIA tried to acquire Brand earlier, and Brand would have complied, but LAC matched the offer. A deal based on "#2 for Brand" fits both team's needs.
4. MIA wants to get greedy! MIA wants to get the most they possibly can for the #2, particularly if they are going to pass on Beasley. Behind the scenes, maybe they start asking for more. Perhaps they want to include Blount's bad deal. They want to include Banks bad deal. They don't want to include Haslem. Maybe they want LAC's #7, or a future pick. They say, "We have the #2, so if you want Mayo, you have to take our deal!"
5. LAC wants a fair deal. The Clippers say, "You don't hold all the leverage! We could dare you to pass on Beasley, and if you can't, then we'll deal with MIN for Mayo. You come up with your best offer, because I swear to you, you don't want to have to decide between Beasley and Mayo without a deal in place with us first!
6. MIA makes a tough offer. MIA responds, "Well, if you try to make a deal with MIN, you know that they won't do it for the older Brand -- they'll want Kaman, picks, cap relief .. who knows? Brand could opt out and leave you with nothing. Nothing!" MIA makes a tough offer, and LAC has to decide. They work Mayo out in secret, trying to avoid the media and feel less pressure from the Clipper fans to turn down an over-priced deal.
These scenarios are all good for MIN. If LAC accepts the steep deal for the #2, it leaves Beasley for us at #3. While Mayo may have more economic value for the Clippers than Beasley, the reverse is true for most teams, including us. A deal may drain assets out of the Western Conference as well. If LAC rejects MIA's steep deal, MIA picks Beasley and we get Mayo. This is LAC's last chance to get Mayo, and Mayo is a legitimate fit on the Wolves, so the Clippers will not have leverage. If they want their cash cow, they won't be able to set up a bidding war, and will have to make MIN a significant offer .. better than the meager (#7 + Tim Thomas + future 1st returned for #3 + Jaric) that we've seen for a month. And if they can't, how bad would it be for MIN to be "stuck" with Mayo, throwing Mayo/Foye at opposing back courts every night?
I think this is win/win for MIN, and maybe win/win for everyone.
1. LAC wants OJ Mayo, bad! This should come as no surprise. The hometown kid may have been in the dreams of Clippers fans and management for years, ever since he started getting national news in junior high, and demanded he play college ball in front of his home fans. He wants to be a star, and LA is the place to do it. Mayo could be a monsterous cash cow for the Clipper's organization, selling season tickets and new merchandise. What player in the draft has the local media punch and charisma to turn LA fans enamored with an aging Kobe towards the Clipper's .. the Laker's ugly sister that no wants to date? The Clippers believe that's Mayo.
2. LAC will offer a lot for Mayo! Here's where it gets fun. The Clippers are on the record saying that no one on their team is untouchable. Not the pick, not Kaman, not Brand, no one. It makes sense, considering how much value he'd have if he stayed in LA.
3. MIA asks, "Will you offer more than Beasley? As soon as the Heat got the second pick, Riley's been in overdrive, saying this isn't a two-man draft, saying that the #2 is a valuable trade asset, and questioning Beasley's position, character, length and drive. Why diminish your own asset? It's not for other team's consumption -- its for Heat fans. In the month before the draft, Riley doesn't want Miami fans and media to get so attached to Beasley that no trade would be acceptable. As rev points out, Riley doesn't have many years left, and he has said he wants vets to compete right away -- Brand would be a perfect fit. MIA tried to acquire Brand earlier, and Brand would have complied, but LAC matched the offer. A deal based on "#2 for Brand" fits both team's needs.
4. MIA wants to get greedy! MIA wants to get the most they possibly can for the #2, particularly if they are going to pass on Beasley. Behind the scenes, maybe they start asking for more. Perhaps they want to include Blount's bad deal. They want to include Banks bad deal. They don't want to include Haslem. Maybe they want LAC's #7, or a future pick. They say, "We have the #2, so if you want Mayo, you have to take our deal!"
5. LAC wants a fair deal. The Clippers say, "You don't hold all the leverage! We could dare you to pass on Beasley, and if you can't, then we'll deal with MIN for Mayo. You come up with your best offer, because I swear to you, you don't want to have to decide between Beasley and Mayo without a deal in place with us first!
6. MIA makes a tough offer. MIA responds, "Well, if you try to make a deal with MIN, you know that they won't do it for the older Brand -- they'll want Kaman, picks, cap relief .. who knows? Brand could opt out and leave you with nothing. Nothing!" MIA makes a tough offer, and LAC has to decide. They work Mayo out in secret, trying to avoid the media and feel less pressure from the Clipper fans to turn down an over-priced deal.
These scenarios are all good for MIN. If LAC accepts the steep deal for the #2, it leaves Beasley for us at #3. While Mayo may have more economic value for the Clippers than Beasley, the reverse is true for most teams, including us. A deal may drain assets out of the Western Conference as well. If LAC rejects MIA's steep deal, MIA picks Beasley and we get Mayo. This is LAC's last chance to get Mayo, and Mayo is a legitimate fit on the Wolves, so the Clippers will not have leverage. If they want their cash cow, they won't be able to set up a bidding war, and will have to make MIN a significant offer .. better than the meager (#7 + Tim Thomas + future 1st returned for #3 + Jaric) that we've seen for a month. And if they can't, how bad would it be for MIN to be "stuck" with Mayo, throwing Mayo/Foye at opposing back courts every night?
I think this is win/win for MIN, and maybe win/win for everyone.