Fair Value for Mayo in LAC
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 1:10 am
On the RealGM Trade Board, most posters try to make deals that balance, talent-for-talent. Good posters try to make sure the salaries make sense as well. But very few posters keep in mind that for these businesses, the money isn't simply outgoing in contracts. The money is incoming as well, and for these revenues, some players are more profitable in certain cities than others. For example, we had a big discussion over Yi two weeks ago, where GSW posters said they shouldn't have to give up more talent that Yi provides, while others said, "Sure you should, because your team makes more money!" Teams make money through more than wins -- they do it through ticket sales, through merchandising, and through general buzz that a player can create. And that's specificly my point when I look at many of the offers for OJ Mayo.
There is probably no player in the last 3 drafts (with the exception of maybe Oden), that would be a more profitable player specifically for the Clippers. Many LA natives have been waiting for OJ Mayo's draft since he was in ninth grade! Sure, he's a terrific fit, and they cleared out the PG spot right away by dumping Livingston (another lottery pick). Sure, he's demonstrated more loyalty to a town than any draft pick I can think of, with his antics to pick his college team in California. Mayo wants to be a star, so the Clippers know he will be loyal to LA. Moreover, as Kobe ages, Mayo has the skills, the personality, and more importantly, the hype to take Kobe's place as the king of LA, and allow the ugly sister clippers to become the fashionable team. But the big benefit to Mayo in LA is marketing. Imagine the ticket sales! Imagine the merchandising! Imagine the jolt a team like the CLIPPERS would get if they became the future stars of LA over the Lakers! While we dispassionate RealGM posters can step back and look at talent and wins, what owner can say "no" to having the $70 mil he's dropping on salaries come back to him with pats on the back around town?
Let's say that Mayo is worth $1 to MIN, and LAC is offering $1.10. That's fair, right? Maybe not, if Mayo is worth $5 to LAC.
The difference in value of Mayo in MIN vs LAC is huge, so a deal that helps both teams should be pretty easy to find. However, this deal should help both teams equally to be fair. LAC should expect to overpay in on court talent and expect to get paid back in off-court marketing and re-connecting with the casual LA fan. Both teams can win in this trade. Shoot for $3.
There is probably no player in the last 3 drafts (with the exception of maybe Oden), that would be a more profitable player specifically for the Clippers. Many LA natives have been waiting for OJ Mayo's draft since he was in ninth grade! Sure, he's a terrific fit, and they cleared out the PG spot right away by dumping Livingston (another lottery pick). Sure, he's demonstrated more loyalty to a town than any draft pick I can think of, with his antics to pick his college team in California. Mayo wants to be a star, so the Clippers know he will be loyal to LA. Moreover, as Kobe ages, Mayo has the skills, the personality, and more importantly, the hype to take Kobe's place as the king of LA, and allow the ugly sister clippers to become the fashionable team. But the big benefit to Mayo in LA is marketing. Imagine the ticket sales! Imagine the merchandising! Imagine the jolt a team like the CLIPPERS would get if they became the future stars of LA over the Lakers! While we dispassionate RealGM posters can step back and look at talent and wins, what owner can say "no" to having the $70 mil he's dropping on salaries come back to him with pats on the back around town?
Let's say that Mayo is worth $1 to MIN, and LAC is offering $1.10. That's fair, right? Maybe not, if Mayo is worth $5 to LAC.
The difference in value of Mayo in MIN vs LAC is huge, so a deal that helps both teams should be pretty easy to find. However, this deal should help both teams equally to be fair. LAC should expect to overpay in on court talent and expect to get paid back in off-court marketing and re-connecting with the casual LA fan. Both teams can win in this trade. Shoot for $3.