What is our potential offensively?

[theGreatRC]

Yeah, Yeah, I know that our defense is a little scary in a bad way, but let's talk about what we could potentially see on offense.

We already have a top 3 low post scorer in this league, with some of the most beautiful post moves i've seen in a long time. Al has been doubled, even tripled this year, and our guys could not take advantage of that a lot of the time.

Now, enter Mike Miller, one of the top 5 three-point shooters that this league has to offer, a player who will take the pressure off of Al and will make teams change their game plans because if they double Al, Al could kick it out to an Open Mike Miller, or a cutting Randy Foye for an Easy bucket. Al's passing did improve in the second half of the season, and I expect it to get better because he has adjusted somewhat to the doubles he received this year.

Randy Foye being healthy could be bigger than we thought. It was no surprise that our record was better once Foye returned to the lineup. He was our second option after Al, a little rusty in the first few weeks, but played better as the season winded down.

Shad, Gomes, Craigers potentially off the bench. These guys are scorers at different positions, each one of them could give us a spark each night and play hero.

Then we have a question mark in Kevin Love. Will he become more of a shooter, or will he get in Al's way in the post?

What is our ceiling offensively?

[bman]

For the last couple of years it seems that one of the issues with the wolves is that the team had no specific identity. I think you make a great observation. With the latest moves, it seems the wolves have an identity. I am of the opinion that we will be a very good offensive team and at least a hard working defensive team.
Miller will make Al better, actually with his floor spreading he will make a lot of people better. Love will make Brewer and Foye and Shad better with his passing, and Al better with his shooting ability.
I think the wolves have some great potential on offense both running and in the half court.

[4ho5ive]

Im pretty excited about our rebounding potential and all the post-up/kick outs we will have. If Foye and Jefferson learn to run an effective pick and roll with Miller waiting in case it breaks down, we are gonna be dangerous.

[Tekkenlaw]

I think the wolves have the potential to be a top 5 offensive team in the league within 2 seasons. But a lot of that hinges on Randy Foye staying healthy and playing like he did last April for a full season.

[deeney0]

I apologize in advance. This is going to be a bit of a stat-heavy essay.

The Wolves offense was rather anemic last year. Lets look at some rankings.

First:
-26th in ppg
-7th in FGA

In other words, our lack of scoring wasn't a pace thing like you might expect. They're not going to get many more FGAs next year. For comparison, GS led the league in 2007-08 with 90, Denver, Seattle, and Indiana were around 85, and Wolves were one of several teams around 83. Wolves actually took more shots than the Suns last year.

The are a few explanation as to why Wolves took so many shots last year. Offensive rebounds helped, but not as much as you think. They were only 14th in the league, even though Al was #2 individually. My theory is absolutely horrid transition defense. When a number of your opponents points come with virtually no shot clock used, possessions start to add up. I think FGA might actually go down next year if they get learn to defend in transition.

-21st in 3P% (despite Foye and McCants both being in the top 20 in the league)
-25th in 3PA

I expect 3P% to skyrocket next season. A healthy Foye, Mike Miller, Shaddy, and improved Corey Brewer, Love might even take some threes - and all of them should be more open. Corey, Ryan, and Marko missed way way way too many easy treys last year. I don't think they'll take as many (well, obviously not Marko.)
3PA? It will be a style choice. I expect this team to try for more fast breaks, and I don't think there's any doubt that pounding it down low with Al will be priority #1. If Al can pass out of the double team, expect 3PA to shoot up. If not, it might be relatively stagnant. But on paper Wolves are a top 8 team in 3P% next year. That kind of change is huge, certainly enough to add a few ppg on its own.

-29th in FTA

Al doesn't really try to pick up fouls, which is a shame because he shoots fine from the line. Some of it is fouls. Only three teams had more of their 2PA blocked than the Wolves. Only three teams attempted less dunks, and there is a correlation - SAS and IND are two of the three teams in both categories. Al's fancy footwork is great, but he needs to power it to the hole more next season. Cookie picked up fouls relatively well, and shot well after struggling mightily the first six weeks of the season. None of the guards drew fouls at an acceptable rate. Gotta change. Not sure it will.

-18th in FG%
-29th in PPS

The PPS thing stands out, and it's not surprising. With the Wolves being 7th in FGA but 25th in 3PA and 29th in FTA, the points per shot is going to suck balls. PPS is a stat that's somewhat correlated to team success. The 8 of the top 10 teams in PPS made the playoffs. 7 of the bottom 10 did not. If the Wolves get to the line more, attempt more threes, their PPS can become average even if they don't improve their shooting.

-26th in APG

I'd like to think this will go up next year with more players being open and more players hitting open shots. More transition game also leads to more assists.

[the_bruce]

Imo we are 1 corey maggette from playoff contention.

Al\collins
Love\Smith\Gomes
Mags\Gomes
Miller\Brewer
Foye\<pg>

Unfortunately we don't have the good contracts to trade and Maggettes contract is up soon so it would make no sense. Even though he's the perfect player for what we need.

Oh looks like he opted this year didnt see it on wire

[deeney0]

Maggette opted out. He's going to sign somewhere for the MLE. And no, not Minnesota.

My money's on Toronto.

[TrentTuckerForever]

^Wiretap says he's talking to Boston. If they could get Maggette and retain Posey... wow.

On topic, I read David Thorpe's chat on ESPN today, and he likened Love's potential career to Brad Miller's. That got me thinking about those great offensive Sacramento teams, who started:

Stojakovic
Webber
Divac/Miller
Christie
Bibby

Now, it's not that much of a stretch to see the Wolves as a similar team in a year or two -

Stojakovic = Miller. No real stretch there, very similar players.
Webber = Jefferson. Big Al is more of a low-post guy than Webber was, but in terms of stats and impact, they're equivalent.
Divac/Miller >> Love. The potential is there for Love to equal their impact with his passing, rebounding and shooting, but this is the biggest stretch of the comparison.
Christie = Brewer. Long, athletic defensive players who could handle a little but couldn't shoot? Spot on.
Bibby > Foye. But again, the potential is there for Foye, if he stays healthy, to have the kind of impact that Bibby had in Sacramento (18 ppg, 6 apg.)

For me this is where coaching enters the discussion. When they had the above lineup Sacramento ran the same Princeton-style high post offense that Byron Scott later took on to NJ and NO. The bigs handle the ball at the elbows, with lots of basket cuts and sideline screens.

Is Wittman skilled enough to come up with a system like that, something that can take advantage of the talent available? History says no.

[Devilzsidewalk]

we don't have the inventor of the Princeton offense on our coaching staff though

*edit I guess you mentioned that. I should learn to read entire posts.

nah

[Worm Guts]

I'm not sure I agree with much of that assessment. Stojakovic was averaging 24 ppg at his peak with Sacramento, I think he was significantly better than Mike Miller is now. Jefferson could eventually be as good as peak Webber, but he's not yet. Doug Christie was a decent shooter during his Sacramento years. I do think Love could be better than either Divac or Miller was, but he'll have to prove it and you're right that he probably won't be better than both together.

[Worm Guts]

The Sacramento comparison does make me feel better about our interior defense issues, though.
Miller, Divac, and Webber weren't exactly defensive stallions.

[TMo519]

Peja at his peak was a beast, but during their peak runs as a team, he was like a 20 ppg guy I thought. Christie though could definitely shoot well. Brewer will at least need to make defenses honest and not sag badly off of him.

I really think it comes down to coaching, which I will go on record as saying I have little faith in to bring out the best in this team.

[TrentTuckerForever]

The Sacramento comparison does make me feel better about our interior defense issues, though.
Miller, Divac, and Webber weren't exactly defensive stallions.

RIght, their identity was as an offensive team. If they'd been able to add a guy like Artest earlier, maybe a title would have been within reach for the Kings.

To all - which other teams, potentially, do the Wolves remind you of? And how nice is it that they look like a TEAM, with defined roles and comparisons we can make to teams of the past? Maybe not a world beating team, but a team that could succeed.

[Klomp]

I'm not exactly sure why I'm thinking this, but what the heck.


How about the Clippers? You've got Two big men that make a good hi-lo combo on offense, and they won't blow you away defensively (Love/Jefferson vs. Brand/Kaman). A young second year SF with potential (Brewer vs. Thornton). A SG/SF combo player that can shoot or drive (Miller vs. Maggette), and a big scoring PG (Foye vs. Davis).

[D1SGRUNTL3D]

Woah woah woah guys. It's fun and games to talk about how much talent offensively we have, because we have a pretty good pieces to make a tough dangerous offense...but we're forgetting one minor detail..

Twittman...

is still the coach

[Basti]

Woah woah woah guys. It's fun and games to talk about how much talent offensively we have, because we have a pretty good pieces to make a tough dangerous offense...but we're forgetting one minor detail..

Twittman...

is still the coach

exactly. I'm not that high on Adelman anymore but back in the "glory" kings days he was one of the best coaches because he had the material to make his offense work. and even now he's miles ahead of Wittman

[Worm Guts]

I'm not exactly sure why I'm thinking this, but what the heck.


How about the Clippers? You've got Two big men that make a good hi-lo combo on offense, and they won't blow you away defensively (Love/Jefferson vs. Brand/Kaman). A young second year SF with potential (Brewer vs. Thornton). A SG/SF combo player that can shoot or drive (Miller vs. Maggette), and a big scoring PG (Foye vs. Davis).

I think the point was to compare us to a team that has had postseason success as sort of a blueprint.

[GopherIt!]

D1SGRUNTL3D wrote:

but we're forgetting one minor detail..
Twittman...is still the coach

oops! Just when I was starting to feel better about Love & Miller...grrrrr

[Tekkenlaw]

Randy Foye=Chauncy Billups; Strong, explosive scoring point guard with a deadly 3 point shot
Mike Miller=Rip Hamilton; pure shooter but can drive, distribute, and rebound his position
Corey Brewer=Tayshaun Prince(minus the jumper); lanky, unselfish lock down defender.
Kevin Love=Rasheed Wallace; Good passer, very high basketball IQ, a 3-point shot, and good post moves

So we're the Pistons+Al Jefferson, and that should scare some people.

[theGreatRC]

^
It doesn't scare anyone because our team can't play to the level of Detroit defensively.