ATL: Josh Smith BYC Package

[shrink]

I have been considering working through the numbers to come up with the packages we could offer that would work financially for the BYC players that are still out there, like Josh Smith and Andre Iguodala. The BYC status, and the large paychecks they are due, makes this a very difficult process, since salary matching is so difficult when large salaries are halved on the other teams outgoing side. Expect a big BYC contract to have a decent sized bad contract attached.

I ran a package down to simply try to match numbers for Josh Smith. I want you to notice that very narrow landing strip, and both sides met their salary match requirements by only $0.42 mil and $0.25 mil. A larger initial salary than $12 mil would shrinh the target number even farther.

MIN IN: $17,757,818 Josh Smith + Speedy Claxton
MIN OUT: $14,378,701 Mike Miller + Rashad McCants + Mark Madsen + UTA pick
($14,378,701 * 1.25 + $100,000 = $18,073,376 max < $17,757,818 .. OK by CBA)

ATL IN: $14,378,701 Mike Miller + Rashad McCants + Mark Madsen + UTA pick (+$3.38 mil TPE)
ATL OUT: $11,757,818 Josh Smith (half of $12) + Speedy Claxton
(max $11,757,818 * 1.25 + $100,000 = $14,797,272 max < $14,378,701 .. OK by CBA)

MikeMiller 9,128,575 9,880,937
RMcCants 2,620,126 3,644,595
MMadsen 2,630,000 2,840,000

JoshSmith 12,000,000 13,260,000 etc. etc. etc.
SpClaxton 5,757,818 5,209,454

I believe if we rescind our qualifying offer to Chris Richard, this deal puts us at $71.08, and the new lux tax threshhold is $71.15 mil, so we just barely squeeze under. I don't think this is an unreasonable offer for Smith. Mike Miller at a cheaper price makes up a lot of the value, and turning Speedy into McCants and Madsen is definitely an upgrade, and no financial hit, plus they get a late pick. Teams don't want to admit it, but when a team is in danger of either giving a big long deal to player, or losing him for nothing if he walks, his trade value isn't at max value.

As an alternative, once Josh Smith is traded, I believe he's no longer BYC. We could look into other offers from teams that could not match up with the extreme BYC financial contraints.

Finally, I think Iguodala is a better fit, but their bad contract (Willie Green, 3 years at $3.7) won't be big enough to cover the BYC salary he wants (5 years at $70 mil). Their package would probably be Iguodala + Green + Reggie Evans. We could probably spin Evans to a third team, but what I'm trying to say is that the bigger BYC salary will make things dificult

[Krapinsky]

Congratulations Shrink for making the numbers work, but we trade two of our best wing players (and best shooters to boot) for another PF?

I like our team.

The only assets I am willing to move at this point are picks, Craig Smith and Collins' expiring deal.

[mayorhoiberg]

I am a Josh Smith fan, but this deal leaves us too thin at SG.

[Devilzsidewalk]

I like the potential chemistry of the team, and this gets in the way of Loves development and takes away our spacing by removing our 2 best shooters, just seems like a hasty move

"dont be hasty" - Pippin

[collin_k41]

Josh Smith to me is like a super gomes. He's more athletic and does almost everything better. He'd play SF for us so no need to call him a PF. I don't really like it though..we lose too much shooting. Let's just keep what we have and run with it.

[Worm Guts]

That idea's shot. Smith just signed with the Grizzlies.

[Devilzsidewalk]

Josh SMith is a PF, he doesnt have enough lateral quickness to guard SFs dominantly, nor enough ball handling to break them down on offense. His asset on defense is his shotblocking, so you want to keep him close to the basket, and on offense his best asset is being a pogo stick around the hoop

hes just way more valuable at PF

[collin_k41]

ya i guess yur right devilz..man the grizzlies are gonna have PG: conley jr SG: OJ SF: Rudy Gay PF: Josh Smith C:darko..that's a good young lineup with great potential although they prolly need another big.

[Krapinsky]

All I heard is $58 Mil. Anyone know if the offer sheet he signed is for 5 years or 6? If it's over 5 it might be tough for Atlanta to match. If it's over 6, that's a considerable bargain and will probably be matched.

[theGreatRC]

I think ATL will match. It's a pretty good deal

[Wingman]

I wonder if it is 4 or 5 years.

[shrink]

Hey - that's cool guys, and I agree with you about the fit of Josh Smith. I wanted to do the numbers to demonstrate (maybe just to myself), that we could make the numbers work for a BYC player. Since we have so many trade restricted players and guys with lower value elsewhere than to us, most any trade we'd do would probably need to include both Miller and McCants, simply to get to the value/price needed to make a legit trade.

I think if we were to do a deal for Josh Smith, it'd have to be to move him to a third team, that can't meet BYC requirements. Carmelo Anthony? (I hate that guy though). Richard Hamilton? Smith > Rip. Ooo .. how about Caron Butler + Haywood for Josh Smith + ? WAS won't go over the lux, so they can't deal for him from ATL as a BYC.

[shrink]

Wow -- I wrote this without seeing the Grizzlies offer. I think Atlanta has to match that.

[4ho5ive]

If all it took was $58 mil I would think Atlanta would have already gotten the deal done. Unless Smith wants absolutely nothing to do with the Hawks and they were waiting to match an offer.

[deeney0]

Smith is worth more than that; whether Atlanta matches or not should be very interesting.

[fattymcgee]

Why trade when we have to giveup our best assets? In 2010 we can sign a FA like Josh Smith without giving up any assets.