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Well, Josh Smith is gone, so I shifted my attentions over to a BYC player that fits better .. Andre Iguodala. Now, let me first say that I think its unlikely that we have any chance of getting Iguodala. We can't make a legitimate offer for Iguodala unless we use Mike Miller, and he can't be traded until August 26th. If the Sixers don't re-sign Iguodala before then anyway, I see no reason MEM doesn't throw some money at Iggy before then to force the issue. Granted, maybe neither want to give him the 5 years, $70 mil contract he wants, and that might be our best chance he's still there.

Since the BYC is such a huge constraint for this deal, I took a run at this from the numbers side, and I think you might find the process interesting. If not, simply slide down to the last couple paragraphs.


If Iguodala wants a $70 mil contract over 5 years, with the NBA's max raises of 8% means Iguodala's first year is about $12 mil. Any sign-and-trade deal is going to need to include additional contracts from PHI's side, and their only bad one is Willie Green ($3.388 mil the first year of a three year deal). His money alone isn't enough to make any BYC deal work, so PHI needs an additional contract. However, because they waived the rights to all the players they liked to get under the salary cap far enough to make Brand his offer, they have hardly anyone to choose from. Before yesterday, Reggie Evans was probably going to be included, and they like Evans more than most anyone. We certainly don't need him.

However, yesterday Jason Smith tore his ACL in his left knee. That's a big blow for PHI, because not only is he a young guy they were hopeful about, he was their only back-up center (speights can't do it), and they bough Elton Brand to win now. If Jason Smith is included in the deal with Iguodala and Willie Green, PHI can make a trade if the incoming players value between $13,271,488 and $13,492,950? But can MIN combine contracts that make sense for both teams talent and longterm finances that also add up to hit that $0.22 mil bulls-eye?

I started with Mike Miller + McCants, that combined make $11.75 mil. Player #3 had to have a salary between $1.52 and $1.74 mil to meet financial requirements. MIN fortunately had one guy in that range that PHI would like .. Rodney Carney at $1.65. Unfortunately, CBA rules prevent us from trading back a player to his original team for one year! That meant trading Carney to a third team, to find a guy that fit that salary range.

I originally toyed with Shawne Williams from Indiana. However, I felt that while we could easily trade Carney for him, he may not be someone PHI would want anyway. And strangely, this led me to his near namesake .. Shawn Williams. He's certainly a better player, but he may be someone NJN wants to trade. He started strong last season, but failed to develop in the second half. NJN drafted Brook Lopez and traded for Yi, and they already had a number of big men to begin with. Moreover, if they see Carney and Williams as roughly equivalent, I think they do the deal just to get Iguodala out of the Eastern Conference.

So I have my three players, but it looks like overpaying to me. Mike Miller is a fantastic fit for the sizers, who have a huge need for outside shooting to free up their big men. McCants is more of the same in that regard, and Sean Williams gives them the back-up center to replace Jason Smith. But what does MIN get? Iguodala, who while he's the best player in the deal, certainly won't be drawing a lot of interest at 5 years and $70 mil. Willie Green is certainly a bad contract, especially with three years on the deal, and Jason Smith, who's promising but out for the year. I figured Miller and Sean Williams is about worth Iguodala at that price, and replaced McCants with Madsen, who's two year deal is preferable to Green's three, and he's a back-up vet center, which should be a plus as well. Iguodala's numbers had to change just a tad to get this to fit:


MIN GIVES: Mike Miller + Rodney Carney + Mark Madsen
MIN GETS: Andre Iguodala ($12,012,600) + Willie Green + Jason Smith

PHI GIVES: Andre Iguodala ($12,012,600) + Willie Green + Jason Smith
PHI GETS: Mike Miller + Sean Williams + Mark Madsen

NJN GIVES: Sean Williams
NJN GETS: Rodney Carney

Iguodala: $12,012,600 $12,973,608 $14,011,497 $15,132,416 $16,343,010 (=$70,473,131 for 5 yrs)
WGreen: $3,388,000 $3,682,000 $3,976,000
JasSmith: $1,326,360 $1,418,880 $2,187,913 $3,135,279

MikMiller: $9,128,575 $9,880,937
MMadsen: $2,630,000 $2,840,000
SnWilliams: $1,522,920 $1,629,120 $2,502,328 $3,533,288

RdCarney: $1,655,760 $2,539,936 $3,568,610

WHY FOR MIN: I really like Mike Miller, but Iguodala is a clear upgrade and gives Al Jefferson a young, multi-faceted guy headed for stardom. Green can play some, but he's a little overpaid and his deal rns three years. Jason Smith is out for the year, but a 1st round center prospect for next year is not bad for our team, who is not "win now." This deal is about Iguodala though.

WHY FOR PHI: Mike Miller is perhaps the best fit in the NBA for a team that has no 3-point threat at all, and wants to win now. He's a smart vet that can do a little of everything (which will be a nice transition from AI2), and his shooting will make life much easier for Brand and Dalembert. Sean Williams wills the huge hole that was created with Louis Willians ACL tear, when win-now PHI lost its only real back-up center. This might even mean minutes for Madsen, another classy vet. For PHI, Miller + Sean Williams => Iguodala (fit and price) and Madsen > Green (price)

WHY FOR NJN: Sean Williams started the season well, but failed to develop. NJN had several other options for big men, and seems to be planning around Williams by trading for Yi and drafting Brook Lopez. Carney is another young player with athleticism and promise, and may be a little better fit. If NJN sees the two as close, they get the added perk of helping move Iguodala out of the Eastern Conference.

I dont hate it, shrink...but what about our need for outside shooting?

Adding a slasher only seems to clog up the lane for Al Jeff, right?

And personally I wouldnt mind rolling the dice on a FA in 2010.

shrink, love working with the numbers...I did the same thing for Gordon, who I believe to be both a better fit for the Wolves, given the players on the roster, more attainable in that PHI will NOT give up Iggy, and does not require us to give up Miller as he wouldn't be as attractive to CHI and because Gordon's value is very low right now...

IMO CHI would jump at the below deal as it gives them more youth, re-unites Brewer with Noah, and gives them post defense...from MN perspective, the combination of Gordon and Miller from the outside would be lights out and open up all kinds of space for the post players:

Due to the base year problems, Gooden is by far the easiest to include and doesn't affect future plans, so is the most logical:

Gooden $7,151,183
Gordon $9,500,000

With these players in mind, the numbers are as follows, starting Gordon with a salary of $9.5M:

CHI out (actual) $11,901,183 (Gooden + Gordon/2)
CHI in (up to) $14,976,479

MIN out (at least) $13,220,946
MIN in (actual) $16,651,183 (Gooden + Gordon)

For the deal, Collins must be included from MIN side due to contract and can serve to replace Gooden's post defense, Madsen has to be included to make the numbers work...the deal, therefore, is essentially two young potentials in Brewer and McCants for Gordon:

Jason Collins $6,200,000
Corey Brewer $2,725,920
Rashad McCants $2,620,126
Mark Madsen $2,630,000

Total for these four players is $14,176,046, which fits as it is larger than the required $13.22 MIN out and smaller than the $14.97 Chi In...

Gordon's total contract numbers using a 8% raise each year are as follows:

$9,500,000 $10,260,000 $11,080,800 $11,967,264 $12,924,645

Total 5 years/$55,732,709, which is on the high side for his worth, but given his youth and scoring ability, could be justified IMO

Starting Lineup is: Foye/Gordon/Miller/Al/Love with Gomes/Gooden/Carney/Smith/Telfair receiving rotation minutes...also, for this year, you could start Gooden with Al while Love gets NBA ready...I like that lineup to make the playoffs in year 2 together (2009-10) and love the scoring potential...defense would be weak, but could go after that aspect in free agency in the summer...

shrink, check my numbers and let me know what you think...

I think that it is possible that Gordon could get a contract like that - but it would be a terrible mistake for a team. He is a too one-dimensional of a player for me, I don't like his game at all. In my mind he's overpaid at half that price. He does need to be paired with a bigger guard since he isn't capable of guarding 2-guards, so it might seem to make sense to pair him with someone like Foye. But Foye isn't particularly effective guarding big guards either. I really hope the wolves don't add a player like Gordon.

tviper wrote: shrink, check my numbers and let me know what you think...

Cool! Your numbers are perfect, and that's was a fun read! Nice job!


I don't know as much about Ben Gordon as I should. How does he compare to Rashad McCants?

Gordon min 31.8, FG% 43.4%, 3P% 41.0%, FT% 90.8%, 3.1 RPG, 3.0 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 18.6 PPG

McCants min 26.9, FG% 45.3%, 3P% 40.7%, FT% 74.8%, 2.7 RPG, 2.2 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 14.9 PPG

Ben is one of the better shooters in the league IMO, and if Foye could successfully guard the 2, that would cover his weakness, and you could play him big minutes.

He shot that % from 3 creating all of his own shots for the most part, with 0 post presence to free him up, and no real playmaker to relieve pressure from him.

Ben is an explosive scorer though, he can get hot as quick as anyone, and just come from nowhere to take over a game with his scoring, kinda Ginobli-esque, when Manu gets hot.

The Gordon S&T may be more likely with the news tonight...anyone else have thoughts on flipping Shad and Brewer for Gordon as outlined above?

too risky to invest that much money, Id take my chances with our guys. If nothing else theyll be cheaper for similar production. I dont like signing players off of bad seasons

I'm curious about Wolves fans opinion on this one. All I did was flesh out the numbers on a suggestion from a good CHI poster based on tviper's trade idea:

shrink wrote: I ran some quick numbers for Haley/tviper's CHI-MIN idea. Haley's addition of the $10.25 mil Hinrich makes Gordon's BYC numbers a lot easier to handle, roughly giving MIN a landing strip of $16-$20.5 mil for the total of their contracts.

CHI OUT: $20.25 ($15.25 with byc) Ben Gordon ($10 mil - non-insulting) + Hinrich $10.25
CHI IN: $18.89 Corey Brewer, Rashad McCants, Collins (exp), Booth (exp), Cardinal (2 yr)

Reunites Brewer and Noah from their old Florida team, and moves Hinrich's big contract to let Rose grow. McCants helps, as a cheap, Gordon-lite scorer. Collins is an expiring, and Cardinal's deal is 2 years and a negative, but he becomes an expiring next summer to trade to teams jockeying for Summer 2010. This deal sheds $60+ million of longterm money.

MIN IN: $20.25 Ben Gordon ($10 mil - non-insulting) + Hinrich $10.25
MIN OUT: $18.89 Corey Brewer, Rashad McCants, Collins (exp), Booth (exp), Cardinal (2 yr)

Gordon is an upgrade of the McCants role. Hinrich grew up in Souix Falls Iowa, and like Mike Miller, he may have been a Timberwolves fan. MIN keeps Madsen, which should make both teams happier, but I needed to include Calvin Booth's $1.5 mil expiring to keep MIN from going over the lux.

Its a big upgrade in talent, but its very expensive and a longterm commitment. I'm not sure MIN is far enough along in its development to trade the youth here and commit the money, though the new team would certainly win a lot more games. I think MIN might prefer to just keep their talent, and wait to see what they can do in free agency in 2010.

shrink, I like it, but don't think CHI would go for something like that...not enough talent coming their way...also, what would happen to Foye's minutes? I like my original proposal with the tweak of Booth for Madsen, costing the TWolves more $, but better for both teams (basically it starts Gordon lower but adds another year to make it 6/66)...

I have seen other proposals on the trade forum and haven't seen anything much better...how long can CHI hold out before Gordon's value goes lower?