Al Jefferson 18th in NBA top 50 player ranking

[Mcfale313]

NBA Top 50: Al Jefferson (No. 18)



FanHouse's Tom Ziller argues his ranking of the top 50 players in the NBA.

Just Al. Not Albert or Alfred or Alfredo or Allen or Alasteir. Just Al Jefferson. Simple name, simple game. </plaschke>

In all seriousness (regrettably*), Jefferson's game is remarkably basic. Al's massive and strong, a Rottweiler in the post. He rebounds, he gets buckets. He does not smile. He is a young Karl Malone, in the flesh. Honest to blog, the comparison is striking in its completeness ... as you'll see below the fold.
Boom.



At age 23, the players are almost identical by the numbers. Malone has a slight scoring advantage, an even more slight shooting advantage, and gets to the stripe more frequently (which you can't see here: Malone is about +2 FGAs per 36 minutes). Jefferson rebounds a chunk more per possession (+2.5% in rebound rate), blocks more shots (+0.7 per 36 minutes), does not foul nearly as much and shoots free throws much better (72% vs Malone-at-23's 60%). Those factors give Jefferson a substanital PER lead (the blocks/rebounds would seem to matter a lot there).

This doesn't mean Jefferson will be Malone or better. This simply and solely means that, at age 23, Jefferson played better than Malone did at age 23 (which happened to be his second NBA season; Jefferson is entering his fifth).

Malone, of course, became a much better player beginning at age 25 and lasting until age 39. (He was above average at age 40 with the Lakers, but nowhere near his standard.) How did Malone's game improve? He began drawing a metric ton of fouls (10+ FTAs a game for five straight seasons at one point), which boosts his overall shooting efficiency (with a max True Shooting at .612 in '92-93). He learned how the blocks a few shots during his prime. His basic field goal percentage boomed, hitting .562 at age 26 -- extremely high for a high-usage player. He cut his fouls given to a negligible amount. And he became a decent passer.

Does Al have the tools to follow the same path? Again, Jefferson's a Rottweiler ... but Malone was a Rott with the attitude of an evil shark. Malone makes Kurt Thomas look like a sissy. Dude was powerful and aggressive, a violent combination. Is Al powerful and aggressive?

Malone drew fouls because of those basic traits. Jefferson's dreams of superduperstardom depending on developing those characteristics. Heck, Randy Wittman's future depends on Al developing those characteristics. The clay is there, and it's even in a pretty good shape already. Whether it can be molded into a demon, a monster like Malone ... that will decide which way this monument crumbles.


* It's regrettable that I have to be serious, not that Jefferson's game is basic. Because by basic I mean Basically Awesome.

http://nba.fanhouse.com/2008/09/19/nba- ... o-18/#cont

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non of other wolves made the list....unless they cracked into the top 10...which havent been unveiled yet... ur thought?
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for lazy ppl, the rest of the rankings

11. Chris Bosh
12. Manu Ginobli
13. Steve Nash
14. Elton Brand
15. Chauncey Billups
16. Carlos Boozer
17. Paul Pierce
18. Al Jefferson
19. Paul Gasol
20. Deron Williams
21. Gilbert Arenus
22. Carmelo Anthony
23. Kevin Martin
24. Andrew Bynum
25. Tony Parker
26. Caron butler
27. David West
28. Allen Iverson
29. Tracy McGrady
30. Baron Davis
31. Brandon Roy
32. Josh Smith
33. Jose Calderon
34. Rahseed Wallace
35. Shawn Marion
36. Anthawn Jamison
37. Monta Ellis
38. kevin durant
39. Rudy Gay
40. Tyson Chandler
41. Corey Maggette
42. Shane Battier
43. Ron Artest
44. Danny Granger
45. TJ Ford
46. Michael Redd
47. Gerald Wallace
48. Josh Howard
49 Andre Iguodala
50. Andris Biedrens

[shrink]

I'm excited by the comparison to Malone. Now, while I was not a fan of "Karl Malone -- the person," I have tremendous respect for "Karl Malone -- the basketball player." He made himself a HOFer on work ethic, power and attitude. I think these three qualities are all strengths for Al as well. I am very excited to see how he develops.

[Calinks]

Malone? wow, that's a mighty comparison. Let's hope he can even come close to Malone in his prime. If Al does we will be one of the luckiest franchises with PF's in NBA history!

[Klomp]

Now we just need to find a John Stockton and we are set to make it to the NBA Finals in about 10 years and lose to the Cleveland Cavs in 6 games in back to back Finals before LeBron James retires with 6 rings and later becomes part owner and VP of BB of the Nets. He then comes back out of retirement as a 40 year old Net and plays for 2 seasons.

[Tekkenlaw]

If Al Jefferson had the body that Malone had... well, I don't think averages of 35 and 18 would be out of the question.

[southern wolf]

In Karl Malone's first 13 seasons he only missed 5 regular season games... no wonder they called him the mailman.

[Calinks]

That is pretty sick. That's what I loved about KG while he was here. He wouldn't miss a game for nothing.

[HotelVitale]

None of you guys are going to question this? Al Jefferson is the 18th best player in the league?

Not put up the 18th best stats last year, but is the 18th best player in the NBA period. A guy with serious defensive issues (especially team defense) who put up 20-11 on one of the worst teams in the league and who doesn't have much more of his game left to develop (not a knock on him, just saying that if he gets better he'll just get more efficient at the things he already does well). A guy as streaky as Al?

Not saying you couldn't make an argument, but this is pretty surprising--nobody's calling it into question?

[revprodeji]

The defensive issues are overblown. More a result of the team and who played the other big spot.

Also, he has a lot of his game he can develop. He still needs to work on his high post moves. He has a nice sweep drive, but his jumper needs work, his passing needs work, his ability to put the ball on the floor and really his ability to draw a foul. He has great tools right now, but he can develop a lot more things. Also, I am curious what happens when he does not have double and triple teams. What kind of an effect a Love, Miller and Healthy Foye will have on him.

18th is about right. Who would you put ahead? Gasol is next on the list and I think Jefferson is worlds better. As a matter of fact, I think Boozer can be argued. He has a better pg and coach, but Jefferson could be seen as the better player.

[Basti]

None of you guys are going to question this? Al Jefferson is the 18th best player in the league?

Not put up the 18th best stats last year, but is the 18th best player in the NBA period. A guy with serious defensive issues (especially team defense) who put up 20-11 on one of the worst teams in the league and who doesn't have much more of his game left to develop (not a knock on him, just saying that if he gets better he'll just get more efficient at the things he already does well). A guy as streaky as Al?

Not saying you couldn't make an argument, but this is pretty surprising--nobody's calling it into question?

things is that after seeing other top50/top10 per position etc lists and seeing him severely underrated I guess nobody wants to argue it because he finally got some credit.

I see what you're talking about but come on, Big Al gets so underrated, it is getting insane so why do we have to argue the one time he gets a better vote?

[HotelVitale]

I can't see how Al is 'world's better' than Gasol. What makes you say that? Gasol passes better, finishes better/quicker off passes, runs the court better, plays better help D, shoots free throws better. Al plays much more physical and has better low block moves, and he defends big bigs better, but he's not as valuable to a team offense or a team defense. Why do you think he's better, let alone world's better?

That's the crux of my skepticism about Al, much as I want him to be great: he's a very good low post scorer and offensive rebounder, but that's it. I still think the best comparison for him is Zach Randolph, but without the attitude and, well, idiocy. Zach could occasionally carry a team and get a few victories but could never have been a key part (let alone the main part) of a great, well-oiled team. To give another, probably provactive comparison: would Ben Gordon have been in the 20's on this list two years ago? Probably, when he had just broken out and people had stars in their eyes about the streaky, unstoppable offensive player with little off the ball or defensive impact. but not people see him for the one-sided (if extremely impressive) scorer that he is.

Right now, just taking a brief glance, I think that Carmelo, Caron Butler, and Deron Williams are better players than Al, can make more things happen and help a team win more. (Boozer has to have the big edge over Al because of what he's done. Did you watch him in the playoffs the last few years? He put up Al's numbers completely within the Jazz's offense and against the likes of Yao and Duncan--and he seemed like he could do it again and again. Al's world's away from having his consistency and mid-range game.)

I'm really looking forward to seeing how Al goes with a better team around him. I'm always interested in developing players, and Al is an especially intriguing case because he's so hard to peg. Is he Zach Randolph redux, or about to become a truly elite offensive player? Between the two, like a slower, more forceful Boozer? Will he help a team win, or just get his stats on bad to decent teams? I honestly don't know. That's what fun about following basketball, right?

EDIT: basti, agree that it's more interesting to see an overrated than underrated Al. Maybe the reviewer was just trying to shake things up.

[jazzfan1971]

The only guy I've ever thought reminded me of Malone was Nene, and with his injures that ship has sailed.

Good luck to Al reaching that plateau. As the author pointed out, drawing fouls is the key. In his prime all Malone had to do to score was take his power move across teh middle. Almost invariably it resulted in a bucket or a whistle. I don't think he got fouled nearly as much on the pick and roll, although it was a thing of beauty.

The thing is, those were teh days of the illegal defense, which the Jazz exploited as good or better than just about anyone. Malone had the luxury of single coverage in a lot of situations.

I don't think Jefferson will have that unless you folks start draining 3s from everywhere. That's probably why Mike Miller was added, which is sad to me because I had high hopes for Brewer. But, if looks like the front office wants to win with offense instead.

If I was a Minny fan I'd be praying that he never develops a jump shot. When Malone got his the free throws stopped and the Jazz suffered as a result.


So, long story short, I don't think he'll reach Malone's level. But, if I wanted improvement in one area, I'd simply ask him to get his FT% up close to 80%. That's something he could probably do with some hard work.

[tundraknight]

Most people at the NBA General Discussion thread say T-Mac is a Top 2 or 3 SG in the league so im surprised he's all the way down to #29. Also D-Williams at #20 when most people say he's the 2nd best PG in the league.