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Odds McCants is here next year?

Posted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 3:43 pm
by shrink
OK, for me, I can't answer this question, so I was looking for some opinions. McCants has been here three years, but I still can't get a feel for the guy, and his longterm impact. I understand that his performance this year will be important, but I need some other opinions.

I'll skip the production/attitude part, but here's the financial end.

Next season, he's a restricted free agent. In order to retain the rights to match any offer, we'd need to offer him about $3.65 mil. For comparison, that's about the same as the contract we gave Gomes, while Telfair and Smith made about $2.5.

For RFA's, there are several options. If he plays poorly, we could refuse to make a qualifying offer, making him unrestricted, and potentially still re-signing him for a lower amount, like we did for Telfair. Of course, as a UFA, he could take an offer from any team. If he blows up this year, we can offer more than the qualifying offer, probably in an extension (think "Ben Gordon"). If he doesn't like that offer, he might play for the QO for one year and then become an unrestricted free agent in 2011. And of course, there is always the sign-and-trade option.

My interest in McCants future is based on the 2009 finances. Assuming we throw $4 mil at our protected draft picks next season (this is obviously a hard number to predict), we'd be sitting $7 mil under the salary cap if McCants is not brought back. If you're under the cap, you lose your exceptions (MLE, BAE), but you can make straight cap space trades. It might become even more valuable to move Cardinal, and approach $14 mil (we'd save more, if we use assets who cost money in 2009). However, if McCants comes back at, say $6 mil/year .. MLE money .. we'd effectively be right at the salary cap.

Anyway, I'd like to hear your opinions on McCants future in MIN. Anyone want to take a guess what his odds of being on the roster next year?

Re: Odds McCants is here next year?

Posted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 4:45 pm
by prefuse73
Thats a tough one.

here is our lineup as I see it.

Jefferson - Collins
Love - Smith
Brewer - Gomes
Miller - McCants - Carney
Foye - Telfair

McCants's minutes are going to be erratic at best. Miller should be getting about 35mpg and I would expect at the very least, Brewer and Gomes will eat up all the SF time. This leaves McCants as essentially Miller's sub. What I am saying here, is that there is (is there ever) enough minutes for everyone. If Carney can show is something offensively in the first few months of the season, I would not be suprised if McCants is showcased and then shipped out (with Cardinal) for a young, athletic big (hopefully). There is something to be said about having a 10 man rotation with clearly defined starters and subs.

It could also be that McCants is showcased and he just becomes too good to trade and then we explore Miller trades. However, I like what Miller brings to the table better as far as team play and the ability to rebound and pass. Brewer - Gomes / Miller - Carney would give us a good mix of offensive and defensive guys and athleticism. If Brewer just tanks it and McCants shows some strong D, it could be Brewer on the way out. Also, SG/SF are the easiest guys to find in the draft and through trades.

In short, I think a lot will be determined in the first few months and by the trade deadline, we may see our plan evolve even further depending on performances.

Re: Odds McCants is here next year?

Posted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 7:51 pm
by deeney0
I continue to see him as the odd one out.