RealGM

1-18-09 Current draft pick status:
2009:
7 (Min) (top 10 protected, otherwise conveyed to LAC)
17 (Mia) (top 10 protected)
27 (Bos) (top 3 protected)
45 (Phi) (worst 2 of miami's 3 2nd rounders, they also have iND, which is currently 38th)
46 (Mia) (2nd rounders don't take missing the playoffs into consideration, they go by straight w/l)
(Our own 2nd, #37 to Detroit)

2010
MIn (top 10 protected)
Utah (top 22 protected '09, top 16 2010, currently 19th so they keep it in '09)
Min 2nd
Hou 2nd


We have 12 wins, but have only played 38 games.
IND 15-25
NYK 15-24
TOR 16-26
CHA 16-24
CHI 18-23

If we pass 4 of those teams, either with w/l or by one of them winning a top 3 pick in the lottery, our pick goes to the clippers. right now that projects at 33 wins, as in we win 33 games and lose our pick, going 21-23 or better from now on.

The good news is none of those teams is more than 3.5 games out of the playoffs, so they have reason to keep playing to win. Also toronto and Ind have underachieved relative to their talent, and the bobcats have been better since the richardson trade.

I don't see us falling back under the teams beneath us. The Clippers and Wizards are already tanking by milking injuries to their players. The warriors could be better with ellis back, and the grizzlies have fallen apart after a promising start to the season.

2009 salaries: (per hoopsword)
Jefferson 12.00
Miller 9.88
Cardinal 6.75
Gomes 3.80
Foye 3.58
Love 3.40
Brewer 2.92
Madsen 2.84
Smith 2.76
Telfair 2.50
#7 Pick 2.71 (figures per hoopshype via draftexpress)
#17 Pick 1.54
#27 Pick 1.01
Total Guaranteed salary: 55.69 million to 13 players

Free Agents: (Cap Hold/Bird RIghts)
Collins 9.3 Full
McCants 10.9 Full
Carney 5.0? None
Booth 1.4 None
Ollie 1.0 None

2nd Round Picks
Peckovic
#45
#46

2010 Salary:
Guaranteed:
Jefferson 13.0 million
Brewer 3.70 (Team Option almost certainly excercised)
Love 3.64 (Team Option)
Telfair 2.7 million (Player Option)
#7 2009 2.90
#17 2009 1.65
#27 2009 1.08
#19 2010 1.42
Total Guaranteed: 30.09 to 8 players

Team Options:
Gomes 4.10

Restricted Free Agents:
Foye 4.80 qualifying offer

Free Agents:
Miller
Cardinal
Madsen
Smith

2nd Rounders:
Peckovic
2009 #45
2009 #46
2010 Min
2010 Hou

2009/2010
Al Jefferson - $12,000,000
Mike Miller - $9,880,957
Brian Cardinal - $6,750,000
Ryan Gomes - $4,017,500
Kevin Love - $3,401,040
Randy Foye - $3,575,761
Corey Brewer - $2,916,120
Mark Madsen - $2,840,000
Craig Smith - $2,300,000
Sebastian Telfair - $2,500,000
#7 Pick - $2,258,800
#17 Pick - $1,261,900
#27 Pick - $841,400
Total - $54,543,478

casey wrote:2009/2010
Al Jefferson - $12,000,000
Mike Miller - $9,880,957
Brian Cardinal - $6,750,000
Ryan Gomes - $4,017,500
Kevin Love - $3,401,040
Randy Foye - $3,575,761
Corey Brewer - $2,916,120
Mark Madsen - $2,840,000
Craig Smith - $2,300,000
Sebastian Telfair - $2,500,000
#7 Pick - $2,258,800
#16 Pick - $1,261,900
#27 Pick - $841,400
Total - $54,543,478

http://www.realgm.com/src_rookiescale.php

To Clarify for everyone,
Your numbers for the picks are the cap holds, at 100% of the rookie scale.
Teams can (And almost always are forced to) sign their picks to the maximum of 120% of scale,
which are my numbers.
For example, the scale # for the #7 pick last year, eric gordon, was 2,186,000.
But he is listed as being signed for 2,623,200 or exactly 120% of that.

Miami is also pick 17, because Dallas, though currently with a better record, is out of the playoffs and gets the 14th pick.

I'm using that because if we're going to be signing free agents we'll do that first, so the scale amount is what is important.

Yep, just wanted to clarify the what the numbers meant for everyone.
Unless we dump salary we won't have much if any more than the mid level exception to spend on a free agent without a sign and trade.

I think it would be a good idea to have a sticky thread with the correct financial numbers for the next couple years in it (not necessarily this one) so everyone has the same information to make their trade/signing proposals with and we're not constantly rehashing it and fishing for the info. Alot of incorrect info gets floated from time to time. Maybe include trade exceptions too.

Also a draft pick status watch sticky thread would be interesting, might be interesting to look back on how the status fluctuated, like when we were 4-23 before the 9-3 streak.

Draft Order as of 1/31/09
No, Team, W/L Games ahead/behind us, Projected Record

1. Washington 9-37 -7.5 16-66
2. Sacramento 10-38 -7.5 17-65
3. LA Clippers 10-36 -6.5 18-64
4. Oklahoma City 11-36 -6.0 19-63
5. Memphis 11-34 -5.0 20-62
6. Golden State 15-32 -2.0 26-56
7. Minnesota 16-29 29-53
8. Toronto 19-29 +1.5 32-50
9T. Charlotte 19-28 +2.0 33-49
9T. Indiana 19-28 +2.0 33-49
11T. New Jersey 20-27 +3.0 35-47
11T. Chicago 20-27 +3.0 35-47
13. New York 20-25 +4.0 36-46
14. Utah 26-21 +9.0 45-37
15. Milwaukee 23-27 +4.5 (8th East) 38-44
16. Philadelphia 23-22 +7.0 (7th East) 42-40
17T. Miami 25-20 +9.0 (6th East) 46-36
17T. Detroit 25-20 +9.0 (5th East) 46-36
19. Phoenix 25-19 +9.5 (8th West) 47-35
20. Dallas 26-19 +10.0 (7th West) 47-35
21. Atlanta 27-19 +10.5 (4th East) 48-34
22. Houston 28-19 +11.0 (6th West) 49-33
23. Portland 28-17 +12.0 (5th West) 51-31
24. New Orleans 28-15 +13.0 (4th West) 53-29
25. Denver 31-16 +14.0 (3rd West) 54-28
26. San Antonio 31-14 +15.0 (2nd West) 56-26
27. Orlando 35-10 +19.0 (3rd East) 64-18
28T. LA Lakers 36-9 +20.0 (1st West) 66-16
28T. Cleveland 36-9 +20.0 (2nd West) 66-16
30. Boston 39-9 +21.5 (1st East) 67-15

Projected record the rest of the season needed to keep pick: 18-19 or worse
Projected record the rest of the season needed to tie for 8th seed: 31-6 or better

Projected Draft picks as of 1/31/09
7. (Minnesota)
17/18. (Miami)
30. (Boston)
45. (Philadelphia)
47/48. (Miami)

Schedule:
February
Sun 01 @ Boston
Tue 03 @ Indiana
Wed 04 vs Atlanta
Sat 07 @ Houston
Sun 08 @ New Orleans
Tue 10 vs Toronto
Tue 17 @ Washington
Wed 18 @ Miami
Fri 20 vs Indiana
Sun 22 vs LA Lakers
Tue 24 @ Toronto
Wed 25 vs Utah
Fri 27 vs Portland
March
Sun 01 vs Houston
Tue 03 vs Golden State
Fri 06 @ LA Lakers
Sat 07 @ Portland
Mon 09 vs Washington
Wed 11 vs Memphis
Fri 13 vs New York
Sat 14 vs Charlotte
Tue 17 @ San Antonio
Wed 18 @ New Orleans
Fri 20 @ Houston
Sun 22 vs Oklahoma City
Mon 23 @ Atlanta
Wed 25 @ Philadelphia
Fri 27 @ Cleveland
Sun 29 vs New Jersey
Tue 31 vs Dallas
April
Fri 03 @ Utah
Sun 05 vs Denver
Tue 07 @ LA Clippers
Wed 08 @ Golden State
Sat 11 vs Phoenix
Mon 13 @ Dallas
Wed 15 vs Sacramento

Projected Losses (Red): 18
Projected Easy Wins (Blue): 6
Games could go either way (but if we play like we did in january we should win): 13

The Warriors are the only team below us with the potential to pass us because they'll be much better with monta ellis back. The Bobcats were looking much improved until Gerald Wallace went down, hopefully he recovers quickly. The Raptors are much better than their record and should make a playoff push with Calderon back at full strength, especially if they can land shawn marion.
Indiana also has the potential to improve with a healthy TJ Ford, Dunleavy, and Granger. If the Knicks deal David Lee they could drop like a rock, but they're playing well over their heads this year for D'Antoni. Milwaukee needs a healthy Bogut to stay in the 8th spot. The biggest plus we have right now is that all those eastern conference teams above us still have a legit shot at the playoffs, which hopefully will keep them from tanking too hard. Plus our schedule gets tougher from here on. hopefully we can win 16-17 more games the rest of the year, stay competitive, and still keep the 6th-7th pick in the draft. I really think glen should eat a little cash, cut Booth, and bring Chris Richard back to give him Cardinal's minutes. let the young guys play.

I guess I'll just have to keep bumping this from time to time.

Bumped again for lack of an official thread.

Draft Order as of 2/09/09
No, Team, W/L Games ahead/behind us, Projected Record (by win PCT x 82 games, rounded)

1. Sac 11-41, -7.0, 17-65
2. Was 11-40, -6.5, 18-64
3. LAC 12-39, -5.5, 19-63
4. OKC 13-38, -4.5, 21-61
5. Mem 14-36, -3.0, 23-59
6. GS 17-35, -1.0, 27-55
7. Min 17-33, Even, 28-54
8. Tor 19-34, +0.5, 29-53
9. Cha 19-31, +2.0, 31-51
10.Ind 20-32, +2.0, 32-50
11.NY 21-29, +4.0, 34-48
12.Chi 22-29, +4.5, 35-47
13.Mil 24-29, +5.0, 37-45
14.Uta 29-23, 11.0, 46-36
15.NJ 24-28, +5.5, 38-44 (8th E)
16.Phi 25-24, +8.5, 42-40 (7th E)
17.Mia 27-23, 10.0, 44-38 (6th E)
18.Det 27-22, 10.5, 45-37 (5th E)
19.Phx 28-21, 11.5, 47-35 (8th W)
20.Atl 29-21, 12.0, 48-34 (4th E)
21.Dal 30-20, 13.0, 49-33 (7th W)
22.Hou 31-20, 13.5, 50-32 (6th W) (Pick to Sacramento)
23.Por 31-19, 14.0, 51-31 (5th W)
24.NO 30-18, 14.0, 51-31 (4th W)
25.Den 34-17, 16.5, 55-27 (3rd W, Div. Leader)
26.SA 34-15, 17.5, 57-25 (2nd w, DL) (Pick to Oklahoma City)
27.Orl 38-12, 21.0, 62-20 (3rd E, DL)
28.Bos 42-11, 23.5, 65-17 (2nd E, DL)
29.Cle 39-10, 22.5, 65-17 (1st E, DL) (win PCT is better than Bos)
30.LAL 41-09, 24.0, 67-15 (1st W, DL)

2009 Draft Picks:
7 (Min)
17 (Mia)
28 (Bos)
45 (Phi)
46 (Mia)


Schedule:
February
Sun 01 @ Boston L
Tue 03 @ Indiana W
Wed 04 vs Atlanta L
Sat 07 @ Houston L
Sun 08 @ New Orleans L
Tue 10 vs Toronto
Tue 17 @ Washington
Wed 18 @ Miami
Fri 20 vs Indiana
Sun 22 vs LA Lakers
Tue 24 @ Toronto
Wed 25 vs Utah
Fri 27 vs Portland
March
Sun 01 vs Houston
Tue 03 vs Golden State
Fri 06 @ LA Lakers
Sat 07 @ Portland
Mon 09 vs Washington
Wed 11 vs Memphis
Fri 13 vs New York
Sat 14 vs Charlotte
Tue 17 @ San Antonio
Wed 18 @ New Orleans
Fri 20 @ Houston
Sun 22 vs Oklahoma City
Mon 23 @ Atlanta
Wed 25 @ Philadelphia
Fri 27 @ Cleveland
Sun 29 vs New Jersey
Tue 31 vs Dallas
April
Fri 03 @ Utah
Sun 05 vs Denver
Tue 07 @ LA Clippers
Wed 08 @ Golden State
Sat 11 vs Phoenix
Mon 13 @ Dallas
Wed 15 vs Sacramento

Revised Post Al Jefferson:
Projected Losses (Red): 23
Games We Could Possibly win due to teams tanking (Blue): 9

I can see us winning about 5 more games.
That would put us in 5th.
Golden State should easily pass us,
Memphis might because they've been playing better lately,
and the Clippers should be better now that Randolph, Camby, and Baron Davis are back.
There is an outside shot the Thundercats pass us because they've been better lately too.
I put the chances of the wiz passing us at 25% if we beat them both times, and the kings at 5% because they are probably the only team with a worse defense than us.
I could see us finishing with the 4th-5th worst record and just hoping for the lottery to fall the right way. Even then my hopes of us picking (AND KEEPING) the right guy (especially with Darth Lurch in the draft room) are about the same as us actually landing the #1 pick.

Miami's pick should reasonably fall somewhere between 16-20, Boston's is very unlikely to slip below 27, and the 2 2nds should remain between 45-49.

Love better get 35 min per game now, but I don't know if his conditioning will take it. This is Lurch's stupid fault for not adding a young big last offseason. DeAndre Jordan would look like a godsend right now. There is no reason Al should have been the last line of defense on a good team with a 1 point lead and 30 seconds left. The chickens have come home to roost on mchale's idiotic small-ball fascination, I just feel really sorry for Al because he is bar none the best low-post scorer in the league right now, and if this keeps him out for a year like some have said, this is devastating for the franchise. It puts the acquisition of miller in a different light, because his contract will expire now before we are competitive again. But on the bright side we almost HAVE to draft big in the first next year or we are looking at a smith-love front court. And love will get almost a full season as the go-to-guy at PF.

"DeAndre Jordan would look like a godsend right now. There is no reason Al should have been the last line of defense on a good team with a 1 point lead and 30 seconds left. The chickens have come home to roost on mchale's idiotic small-ball fascination, I just feel really sorry for Al because he is bar none the best low-post scorer in the league right now, and if this keeps him out for a year like some have said, this is devastating for the franchise."

There are a lot of candidates, but this is possibly the most ridiculous criticism of McHale, ever. So if McHale drafted another project center in the second round (or passed on Pekovic), Jefferson wouldn't have had to try and block a shot? Jordan wouldn't be playing in crunch time anyway, since Love is so good already.

Maybe if Jefferson had more practice in trying to protect the rim he wouldn't have gotten hurt this one time he tried it.

The average fan has no appreciation of what legit basketball minds see in pekovic. Talent-wise he would have been a mid-late lotto pick. Similar in range to Lopez. But the average fan sees him as a euro bum.

In this draft Pekovic would likely be a top 5 pick if not for the contract. Yes, I will go there. In this upcoming weak draft Pekovic would have been a top 5 pick.

Here is a scouting report from 2 years ago, a younger Pekovic (2006)

Athletic young big man who uses his body well Strong and physical player with good strength and size He loves to play with his back to the basket relying on deep position under the basket; if he catches the ball on the low post its very difficult to stop him Pekovic is very explosive and aggressive player who dunks the ball easily Plays simple basketball with solid fundamentals (cant create too much offense esp. off the drible) Understands what is he capable of doing on the court and keeps it simple not forcing anything Most of his points are around the basket; put-backs, dunks and rebounds but his favorite move is his baby-hook-shot; very good at drawing contact and patient using pump-fakes Offensively he is effective using the play pick and roll and gets himself in good position for easy shots under the basket Gets to the free-throw line often Runs the floor well for his size and loves to dunk the ball on the fast-break Pekovic understands how to play without the ball setting screens well and spacing the floor Recieves balls well in the post On the defensive end his mobility, long arms, size and aggressiveness helps him to be a solid defender

We show an utter rubness when "pumpfakes" with "redundant with Al/Love". Pekovic is a very physical player, plays angry. Plays inside. Terms in this report are "very explosive and agressive", "Gets to the free throw line" "runs floor well", "mobility-long arms-size-aggressiveness=solid defender"

QUIT HATING ON HIM---He will be worth the wait.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZuPVqTk ... la-pekovic

Where in those posts did I hate on your man-crush pekovic? I don't remember you raving about him pre-draft. Why now? Nowhere in any of those write-ups or highlights is there anything about exceptional interior defense, which we need. Except for "long arms" and "loves to dunk" that entire writeup could have also described kevin love (yes I'll go there). his 2.10 meter height measurement on the euroleague page translates to about 6'10 2/3 (for those who are curious).

Jefferson is defensively not meant to play center. Period. There is a reason Phoenix and Toronto went to desperate lengths to put a big next to bosh and amare. You don't wear down your top-10 NBA star PF by exposing his weaknesses making him defend the rim and the other team's biggest player. Al begged to play next to a real center in the offseason and this is how he was repaid. You know you all feared sooner or later it was going to happen.

"Love is good already", oh my you have me there. He's so good we were taken to the woodshed by sean marks and devin brown and a one legged jermaine o'neal. McHale COULD use his timeouts and free-throw stoppages for offensive/defensive substitutions late in the game, but sadly brian cardinal has been our backup center for the last 2 months.

I'm not hating on these players, they are strong, smart, and have good offensive skills. I'm simply questioning their defensive fit next to Al Jefferson.

Al Jefferson is our best player. We should build our team around him. I can grudgingly accept Love as an offensive compliment, but I think we need a defensive compliment too, and I don't know that that player is Pekovic, with or without contract or language/culture barrier concerns.

This year per 36 minutes in Greece Pekovic is averaging 24.2 pts, 7.4 rebounds, and 0.4 blocks.
http://www.euroleague.net/competition/p ... ?pcode=KNN

Great offensive numbers, extremely poor defensive numbers in a much softer and fast-paced league than the NCAA. With his size and strength as a 22-year-old he should be dominating in rebounds and blocks if he is a legit top-5 draft talent.

I never said we should have taken Jordan over Pekovic, but passing on him twice was insane. 6'11 with a freakish 9'6 reach and can jump out of the gym. And only 19 years old. If McHale is such a bigman guru he should have been salivating at the prospect of developing him. But he isn't a nesterovic or paul grant I guess.

Even IF Pekovic wants to come over, it will take at least the MLE or above just to match what he will be offered in Europe, and probably at least 3 years. Deandre Jordan is signed for 3 years and 2.1 million total for the clippers. which is the better bargain?

I'm glad that Pekovic is good, I'm glad he had mid-1st potential last year. But I'm not sold that what he is good at is necessarily what we need. It's hard to be sold on a guy you can't see play on tv and plays in a much different league than the NCAA. He could be an extremely valuable trade chip with the right team.

I like your location Rev (and I would add "throws money at problems like a drunk at a stripper"),
but it's rather annoying when you spend a nice chunk of time putting together a good deal of important information and are met with a Pekovic (who I hadn't mentioned once in this thread) infomercial. A moderator might call that "highjacking a thread".

i was responding to the discussion point by the poster before me. Not hijacking.

Young...Jefferson was bound to go down, I hate to see it but he is not a center you are excatjy right...I had really hoped for a deal that would send him to the Thunder for a couple of stud youngsters and maybe even a good pick to boot..But in trying to work deals I found Big Al was BYC. As Love starts exploding and now even if rehab is sucessfull Jeffersons value has been deflated. It really is disapointing. I really hope the BYC is the reason a deal didnt go down.

bound to go down? His injury had nothing to do with being a center or a pf...

You think the wolves were looking to deal Jefferson? I do not think you have a firm grasp on the vision of this team.

I think invno involves trading with OKC and/or Russel Westbrook in at least 65% of his posts regarding Big Al.

Who has a frim grasp Rev? Al Jefferson is a 4, I love his game. Timberwolves have like the least attendence in the leauge, Jefferson clearly had by far the most value on the Timberwolves and for that one of the highest in the NBA. Everyone was so against KG getting moved. The NBA is about having exciting club and to get there sometimes you do your best and take good risks.

invno1 wrote:Who has a frim grasp Rev? Al Jefferson is a 4, I love his game. Timberwolves have like the least attendence in the leauge, Jefferson clearly had by far the most value on the Timberwolves and for that one of the highest in the NBA. Everyone was so against KG getting moved. The NBA is about having exciting club and to get there sometimes you do your best and take good risks.

Wrong. The NBA has been and always will be about putting together a winner. Exciting or not, you play to win the game. San Antonio is completely boring and Phoenix had one of the most exciting teams the past decade and San Antonio consistently won championships. You are in it for the wrong reason if the reason is anything other than winning.

Invno...you dont think the fans enjoy watching Al? His post work is an art. A player that can command a double team is the key to offensive success. Al gives us that.

You could make the argument about defensive fit with Al/love, but claiming that Al should be traded to draw fans is absurd.

4ho5ive wrote: Wrong. The NBA has been and always will be about putting together a winner. Exciting or not, you play to win the game.

I think the NBA is about providing an entertainment experience from which an owner can make money. You can do that without being a winner.

Can you name the team that was #1 in operating revenue last year?

The Lakers were #2 .. #1 was the Chicago Bulls.

POR wasn't a winner last year, but they were #1 in increasing their team's valuation 21%.

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2008/32/nba ... ncome.html

shrink wrote:

4ho5ive wrote: Wrong. The NBA has been and always will be about putting together a winner. Exciting or not, you play to win the game.

I think the NBA is about providing an entertainment experience from which an owner can make money. You can do that without being a winner.

Can you name the team that was #1 in operating revenue last year?

The Lakers were #2 .. #1 was the Chicago Bulls.

POR wasn't a winner last year, but they were #1 in increasing their team's valuation 21%.

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2008/32/nba ... ncome.html

I think this is true to a certain extent. A team can sell excitement, youth, rebuilding, etc. for a while but eventually it ceases to be entertaining watching a losing team. A team like Chicago or New York can more easily get away with the entertainment angle just because they have a huge pool of fans to draw from. For smaller market teams, winning is the only long-term survival strategy. I don't think it is coincidence that the top 5 largest cities are represented in the top 6 in revenue on the Forbes list.

shrink wrote:

4ho5ive wrote: Wrong. The NBA has been and always will be about putting together a winner. Exciting or not, you play to win the game.

I think the NBA is about providing an entertainment experience from which an owner can make money. You can do that without being a winner.

Can you name the team that was #1 in operating revenue last year?

The Lakers were #2 .. #1 was the Chicago Bulls.

POR wasn't a winner last year, but they were #1 in increasing their team's valuation 21%.

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2008/32/nba ... ncome.html

I think most owner's aren't in it to make money. There are a lot of better ways to invest your money if that's your goal. And regardless, when you look at that list the better teams are generally at the top. There's the occasional bad team that makes money and good team that loses money, but the pattern of winning and making money is pretty apparent.