Nice article. I like the way stop-n-pop spells out our financial future, and I agree on Hinrich .. if we even want him, we can get him next year.
Since he's here, I'll answer this question:
If you can figure out how they will come in under the lux mark in 09/10 (likely under $70 mil) you are a better man than I.
Yep, its very unlikely. I had always put Abe Pollin on my list of "Owners Who Refuse to go over the Lux" but after Jamison's contract last season, I shifted him to the "May Go over the Lux for a Contender" list (with Glen Taylor). I was shocked he didn't get that salary dumped. Lots of people had expirings, but there are very few ways to get under the lux now.
1. Trade for a TPE. People are going to guard these like gold, and the two that have TPE's big enough to help DEN and CHI, need their TPE's to get under the lux themselves.
2. Trade for cap space. Who has enough to help? OKC? MEM? Maybe DET? In any event, its unlikely that if WAS couldn't trade for a less valuable expiring, they can offer enough trade value to get a TPE. Moreover, 2009 Free Agency is going to be a candy store, with so few teams able to offer more than an MLE, and most unwilling to do even that. I doubt WAS can outbid FA.
3. Career-ending injury? Maybe WAS takes a hit out on one of their players? This would save money, and they could probably get away with it if they target Mike James, who authorities will just assume ran his mouth to the wrong guy.
4. Buy-Outs? how much does Etan Thomas hate Haywood? you'd probably need a few players to get all the way to $5 mil in savings.
5. Cap Match Trade? Here's you're talking about WAS sending out $24 mil and taking back $19. This seems unlikely, but Butler (2 yr) + Etan (exp) + James (exp) might do the trick.
I agree with you though, that it would have been much simpler, and less expensive, to get a deal done before the trade deadline, and acquired an expiring. WAS is a loser for the trade deadline.