Hollinger article: lux-crunched teams

[shrink]

Here's another crazy notion.

Suppose we could get someone to bite on an offer where we combine picks to move up in the draft. The current financial situation may make 2009 a great time to buy picks. Occasionally, a team is willing to sell a very late pick for the league-mandated max of $3 mil in off-the-books cash. This season though, we might see teams selling picks earlier in the draft.

NOH is a great example. Say their pick stays at #20. If NOH drafts him, he's going to cost the $1 mil salary + $1 mil in lux penalties for an owner who's taking a financial beating. Moreover, this is guaranteed salary in 2010-11 .. a time when many owners are trying to avoid adding any salary. There were rumors last week that WAS was even willing to offer a lottery pick free agent to help protect their team financially. We have a rich owner, and 2009 is a time when riches can bring in talent. If we can combine some of these picks into lottery deals, I think the economic times might make this a reasonable course of action to investigate.

[shrink]

And on the other hand ..

If we CAN'T find that deal where we combine picks to move up in the lottery, it might not be a bad idea to try to trade a current pick for a future pick. Not only does it help solve some of our roster spot problems, but it removes the cap hold, which turns straight into space under the lux. If we could trade the BOS pick for a 2010 or even 2011 pick, it helps us in a lot of ways.

[the_bruce]

I'm not certain any team should risk long term cap room for a high lotto pick such as the WAS rumor. It's way to much of a gamble. Great move if the player works out allright, but totally hosed if not. If the lotto pick is a miss. The team ends up choking on, I dunno worst case scenario 10m/3yrs=30m. Plus high lotto pick salary 13m/3yrs? So 43m or 14m/yr...

If there is a year to see a straight cap space for high lotto pick trade I guess this is the year.

[shrink]

I think Hollinger is wrong, thinking the best way out for WAS is to trade the lottery pick.

Etan, Mike James, and Haywood all are $6-$7 mil expirings. If they make a big $ deal, such as combinng Jamison with two expirings, they can get under their lux simply by taking back less money that's still within the 25% + $100,000 salary match.

[TrentTuckerForever]

2009/2010
Al Jefferson - $12,000,000
Mike Miller - $9,880,957
Brian Cardinal - $6,750,000
Ryan Gomes - $4,017,500
Kevin Love - $3,401,040
Randy Foye - $3,575,761
Corey Brewer - $2,916,120
Mark Madsen - $2,840,000
Craig Smith - $2,300,000
Sebastian Telfair - $2,500,000
Bobby Brown - $736,420
#6 Pick - $2,474,400
#18 Pick - $1,198,900
#27 Pick - $836,300
Total - $55,427,398
Projected Cap - $57,300,000

Told you guys I wasn't shrink...

That bit of wiggle room could still have value (as raw cap space, as alluded to in the proposed lotto deals) or to get the Wolves a $10 million player for, say $8 million in expirings (Cardinal + Madsen.) Too bad a $10 million player isn't worth what he used to be.

[TrentTuckerForever]

Etan, Mike James, and Haywood all are $6-$7 mil expirings. If they make a big $ deal, such as combinng Jamison with two expirings, they can get under their lux simply by taking back less money that's still within the 25% + $100,000 salary match.

But they want to compete. Wiz management still reportedly think that Jamison, Arenas and Butler are the core of a championship team, instead of a core of a .500 team. I guess if I'd given Arenas $100 million I'd feel the same way... delusional.

Anyway, I wouldn't do a "big money" deal for Jamison (too old for the Wolves) but I do like Butler. The Wolves could send out Miller, Cardinal and Madsen for Butler, James and Thomas. That would shave $4.2 million off Washington's cap, and they could look for an additional, smaller deal to get under the lux (they'd be about $1.2 million away after this deal with MN.)

They could still compete with Miller in Butler's spot, and they keep their lotto pick. Wolves get the tough, versatile 3 man they need to complement Love and Jefferson in the frontcourt.

[deeney0]

Wolves could always get a $10mil for $8mil (125%) - but I don't think being $2mil under the cap lets you only match the part of the deal above the cap like you're implying. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that, if at the deal you're over the cap, the deal has to match salary regardless.

[younggunsmn]

I think Hollinger is wrong, thinking the best way out for WAS is to trade the lottery pick.

Etan, Mike James, and Haywood all are $6-$7 mil expirings. If they make a big $ deal, such as combinng Jamison with two expirings, they can get under their lux simply by taking back less money that's still within the 25% + $100,000 salary match.

76 million shrink for '09, BEFORE the cap hold for their high lottery pick is counted.

they are going to have to shave about 7 million in salary PLUS move their pick to get under the lux. It would have to be one helluva huge trade to fit 7 million into 125% matching, you're talking almost 37 million in salary going out and 30 million coming back. Denver has a trade exception large enough, but they got that exception originally by dumping salary (Camby). In reality the only way for them to sneak under the '09 lux is to send out 7 million in salary (Etan Thomas or songailia/stevenson) plus their lottery pick to a team with '09 cap space for a future first rounder or 2. There is no logical way we can position ourselves to do that for them, that ship sailed with the mayo trade, which added 7 million (ironic isn't it?) to our '09 cap.

They could have moved caron butler at the deadline for expiring(s), the fact that they didn't tells me that they aren't going to move him for nothing. 2009 is the year they are really worried about, they still have enough 2010 flexibility to stay under the lux.