Tradedown/tradeup ideas for this year's draft

[Dan's with the Wolves]

What are some tradedown/tradeup ideas for this year's draft?

Assuming they end up with the 6, 18 and 28 draft picks, are there any Miller type trades to be had?

Who would be a player to target for the team just below the Wolves in the draft?

I would prefer trading for players in the same age range as the wolves young players.

YOB
1982 Gomes
1983 Foye, Williams, Smith
1984 Brown, Carney
1985 Jefferson, Telfair
1986 Brewer, Pekovic
1987
1988 Love

Areas of need C, SF, PG

It is interesting that the Wolves only have three players younger than Jefferson. So do they add youth through the draft or do they trade away youth to get proven players?

[Devilzsidewalk]

I think the draft slotting for guys is so up in the air that if there's a guy you really want and have a chance to get him that you just take him and don't worry about extra assets. The exception would be the #1 pick and Rubio isn't on the board.

[Steve_Holiday]

I would bet that most of the players available on draft night will be talented veterans with big contracts, not promising younger players on smaller contracts. Are there any players that were available at the deadline that didn't get traded that might make sense here?

Regardless of where the Wolves end up with their first pick, they will most likely have the assets to move up or down in order to grab the player they really want (and this is what I expect they will do). I would expect that they will try to move the Boston pick...most likely for a 2nd rounder + something extra.

The bad part is that this appears to be a weak draft, stocked with power forwards and 6'2"-6'4" shooting guards. I would assume Rubio (if he comes out) and Thabeet would be our targets with the first pick.

[Dan's with the Wolves]

Some of the teams just below the wolves in the draft order and potential targets with year of birth

#7 Golden State: Monta Ellis 1985, Andris Biedrins 1986, Brandan Wright 1987, Anthony Randolph 1989
#8 Toronto: Chris Bosh 1984, Andreas Bargnani 1985
#9 Charlotte: Emeka Okafor 1982, Gerald Wallace 1982, Boris Diaw 1982, Diop 1982 Raymond Felton 1984, DJ Augustin 1987
#10 Indiana: Danny Granger 1983, Jarret Jack 1983, Brandon Rush 1985, Roy Hibbert 1986
#11 New York:
#12 New Jersey: Devin Harris 1983
#13 Chicago: Ben Gordon 1983, Aaron Gray 1984, Luol Deng 1985, Joakim Noah 1985, Tyrus Thomas 1986, Derrick Rose 1988

To go after any of the better players on this this, the wolves would have to trade one of their
better players. that would make both side better for a specific target window of time

That would mean trading one of our current big three (Jefferson, Love, Foye) + a pick for a that would upgrade the overall team.

Go Slightly Older Ideas
Love + Picks for Bosh
Love + pick(s) + filler for Granger + pick
Love + pick(s) + filler for Deng + Noah +pick
Love + filler for Harris
Pick(s) + Filler for Harris

Go Younger Ideas
Jefferson + pick(s) for Rose + filler + pick
Foye + Pick(s) for Brook Lopez + pick

Would any of these trades make a better overall big three?

Going slightly older would put the Wolves planned peak in sync with Lebron's peak.
Going younger would be targeting the post lebron peak.

or they could swap prospects for other prospects

[revprodeji]

teams are always hesitant to trade their young talent. Often times they overvalue that talent based on how much marketing has been done to the local fan base etc. So even if a (rose for Al) trade could be argued it would never happen.

[karch34]

I was thinking the opposite the other night about potential trade ups if we have 4 picks and a decent amount of expirings. Obviously it assumes teams ahead of us want to dump salary and then would have to give up a higher pick for lower picks to do it.

Not saying I would necessarily do any of the following, but here's what I brainstormed. Part of it was trying to do 2/3 for 1 deals as we've discussed roster space in the past.

Golden State: Madsen, Cardinal, Miami pick, & Utah Pick for Maggs+ 7
*Maggs is a potential cancer, but he can score. I think Golden State would love to move him.

Charlotte: Cardinal, Brewer/Madsen/Smith, Miami pick & Utah Pick for Wallace +9
*Included the possibility of Brewer as we'd be overloaded at the wing and Wallace is still a valuable (if not often injured) player so less likely to be moved just for expirings.

Indy: Cardinal, Utah Pick, & Boston Pick for Tinsley + 10
*Horrible contract. Only idea here is moving two picks in the late 20s to get a late lotto pick.

NY: Cardinal, Miami pick, Boston Pick for Curry + 11
*Incredibly risky and probably not a high enough return depending on where the Miami pick winds up. Cap clearing for NY for 2010.

Chi: Cardinal, Smith, Bobby Brown, Miami pick & Boston Pick for Hinrich,13, & 25
*Chicago sheds salary and moves down a couple of spots respectively to do it. We still have 4 picks, but we gain two extra roster spots.

Phx: Madsen, Smith, Brown, Utah Pick & Boston Pick for Barbosa & 14
*Cap space for Phoenix. PG and pick upgrade for us.

Phil: Cardinal, Smith, Madsen, Utah & Boston for Dalembert & 17
*Most of us dislike Dalembert's contract, but having a center we need with 3 picks in the top 18 or so spots might be enough to offset it.

I didn't include Miller as most of the players trading for were questionable pick-ups and not worth the value of a Miller, IMO.

[TrentTuckerForever]

Interesting stuff, karch. I would do these two -

Charlotte: Cardinal, Brewer/Madsen/Smith, Miami pick & Utah Pick for Wallace +9
*Included the possibility of Brewer as we'd be overloaded at the wing and Wallace is still a valuable (if not often injured) player so less likely to be moved just for expirings.

Chi: Cardinal, Smith, Bobby Brown, Miami pick & Boston Pick for Hinrich,13, & 25
*Chicago sheds salary and moves down a couple of spots respectively to do it. We still have 4 picks, but we gain two extra roster spots.

I'm also intrigued by this one...

Phil: Cardinal, Smith, Madsen, Utah & Boston for Dalembert & 17
*Most of us dislike Dalembert's contract, but having a center we need with 3 picks in the top 18 or so spots might be enough to offset it.

... but I'm not sure #17 is enough value. Top 10 maybe, but in such a weak draft I'm not sure.

You're 100% right about not including Miller, BTW. These are the assets to be moving at draft time. Miller's value will only go up, if the Wolves decide to trade him at all - he'd look very, very good across from Wallace or next to Hinrich, two excellent defensive players.

[karch34]

I'm also intrigued by this one...

Phil: Cardinal, Smith, Madsen, Utah & Boston for Dalembert & 17
*Most of us dislike Dalembert's contract, but having a center we need with 3 picks in the top 18 or so spots might be enough to offset it.

... but I'm not sure #17 is enough value. Top 10 maybe, but in such a weak draft I'm not sure.

Yeah. That one was a little tougher to figure value with that contract coming back. Probably something more along the lines of removing Utah pick and inserting a 2nd, future pick top 10 protected back from Philly, or something would have to be done.

[Krapinsky]

Too many hypotheticals. We don't know who's going to be in the draft, and we don't know if we're drafting 6th.

[Dan's with the Wolves]

Karch

I updated the thread title to include tradeup ideas.

Packaging the two lower picks for a player that a team would what to rid themselves of + a higher pick would allow the wolves to possibly package the 6 + 7 thru 10 for a higher pick that the wolves covet (rubio?)

[shrink]

This weekend, I plan on putting some time into this thread and the interesting posts. In the meantime, I've been discussing on the Trade Board the issue of which teams would be most likely to trade away their picks. I thought it would provide some useful information for this thread:

30. LA Lakers
29. Cleveland
26. Chicago (from San Antonio via OKC worse of SA or DEN)
23. Portland
22. New Orleans
21. Utah
14. Milwaukee
2. Washington

[revprodeji]

I think our late 1st from Boston+Pekovic+Utahs+expiring is exactly the offer we need to put to Washington to get either the pick or Butler + a nasty contract. seriously, it is too perfect.

[revprodeji]

wow, I like that idea. Serious. I really want to make something like that work.

[hotshotschamp]

wizards won tonight, and been playing better lately, coupled with arenas and haywood possibly comin back within a week, i dont think they'll have that #2 pick in fact its possible they could surpass us

[younggunsmn]

Team's 2009 cap numbers before draft pick cap holds and signing free agents:
(Lottery Teams and teams near the lux who might trade their pick)

Phoenix - 76 million (if they excercise nash's option)
Washington - 76 million
Charlotte - 57 million (and raymond felton a RFA)
Milwaukee - 64.9 million (plus Sessions and Villanueva are RFA's)
Chicago - 64 million (plus Ben Gordon UFA)
Golden State - 63 million (including Crawford's player option (ETO)
Clippers - 59.9 million
New Jersey - 59.1 million
New Orleans - 75.5 million
New York - 69.2 (Robinson, Lee are RFA's)
Orlando - 65 (plus alston's unguaranteed 5.2 million)
Philly - 59.1 million (Andre Miller UFA)
Sacto - 57.5
Utah - 72.3 (Including Boozer player option for 12.3 and harpring unguaranteed 6.5, Milsap RFA)

Teams with significant cap room:
Atlanta - 40 million (williams, bibby)
Detroit - 40 million (Iverson, Wallace, McDyess)
Memphis - 33.5 million
Oklahoma City - 41.6 million
Portland - 45.4 (plus blake's unguaranteed 4.9 million, Frye RFA)
Toronto - 47.1 (Marion UFA, Graham RFA)


Of those teams Phoenix, Washington, and New Orleans are almost certain to move their pick and/or drop a big salary onto a team with cap room (although Phoenix would have to trade the rights to the player). Milwaukee, Utah, and Golden State are also probably going to be very eager to move their pick and/or dump salary.

I'm predicting right now that Washington's pick will go to one of the 6 teams with cap room to straight up absorb a contract, most likely OKC or Memphis. If they fail to land a top 3 pick, though, that could all change because it will drastically reduce the value if rubio, thabeet, and griffin are all gone. Oklahoma City has the best shot because they can offer to eat contracts plus offer up phoenix's unprotected 2010 pick, which is one of the most coveted tradable assets out there right now. They could very well end up with 2 top 7 picks just like portland did in '06.

I like your washington idea rev, but we can't offer to absorb a 2009 contract straight up.
Their 2009 cap number is a minimum of 76 million, while their 2010 number is just 63 million (which they could further reduce 4.5 million by non-tendering pecherov and crittenton). Their primary financial focus has to be reducing their 2009 tax burden.

If we could work a big enough trade we could knock 3 or 4 million off under the 125%, but that would almost certainly have to involve miller's deal, which other than jefferson and cardinal is our only 2009 deal over 3.8 million. Pekovic's rights might be pretty appealing to them. They already have McGee and Blatche as young centers though. Miller would be appealing to them because it would allow them to save face in a salary dump.

Miller+Cardinal for Stevenson, Butler, haywood works and saves them 3.9 million under the 09 cap.
adding in peckovic plus a pickswap from 17 to top 5 would be possible.

Mike James and Etan Thomas have player options that have to be excercised before they can be traded, which will make trading them before/during the draft near impossible.

About trading up/down:
There is only one scenario where I can see us trading down and picking up anything significant, and that is if we win the lottery and trade blake griffin to move down one or 2 spots to pick up rubio/thabeet and something significant in return. In my opinion we need to go C or PG with our first pick and the only 2 guys worthy of a top 6 pick at those positions are rubio and thabeet, everyone else has way too many questions. If we sit at 6 and those guys are both gone I'd seriously consider trading our pick to a perennial lottery team for a future top-3 protected pick and gamble that jerome jordan or a 2nd tier point like tyreke evans or ty lawson is available at the miami pick.

About Corey Maggette: He is probably about the worst contract, value-wise, in the league right now. They couldn't trade him for marko jaric + filler. Dead Serious.

About Gerald Wallace: I'd love this move, I've been pimping him for months. Charlotte is not desperate to part with him though, and they insist whatever team deals for him also takes on nazr mohammed's deal too. Miller+Brewer+cardinal+miami pick for Wallace+mohammed+charlotte pick could make alot of sense, especially if there is a guy we badly wanted to trade up into the 8-12 range for.

Dalembert - I'm more scared of his knees than his contract. he is close to being finished as an NBA player, he has regressed terribly this year.

The only way I include miller in a deal is if it lands us:
1. Rubio or Thabeet
2. A player like Butler or Gerald Wallace who is an upgrade.

[shrink]

I've been poking around the WAS board for a week or two, and in my opinion, they are vastly over-rating their assets. One of their offers was:

Butler (2 yr), Songaila (2 yr), and Stevenson (2 yr)

for

Mike Miller, Kevin Love, and Brewer (option declined)

.. and the following posters thought that WAS was overpaying.

A more reasonable deal, but still one I would not do, is:

Washington trades: #2 pick + Nick Young + Etan Thomas + Deshawn Stevenson
Minnesota trades: #7 pick + Mike Miller

[shrink]

Let me also add that nate's deal reflects one extremely important aspect of salary reduction .. until the player is picked and has a contract, there is no salary matching component in trades.

If WAS ends up with a Top 5 pick (not a lock, btw), that would be $3-$5 mil in additional salary, and it would be doubled since the Wizards are over the lux. Trading the pick before draft night would be an easy way for the wizards to move 2009-10 (and 2010-11) salary, as long as they get value from the pick.

For example, Stevenson + Songalia + Opec is about the same salary as Mike Miller. If they traded those three plus the pick, the guaranteed salary of the pick would be a straight up salary reduction. Moreover, they'd get a lot of savings in 2010-11, where MIN would be eating $9 mil plus the cost of the pick in 2010-11. MIN can't do this deal because of roster space issues, unless they find something to do with all their other picks.

[SportsFan215]

Would you guys trade Cardinal/Protection removed from first to LAC for Camby?

or maybe make it a 3-team deal:

Clippers Get: Cardinal/protection removed from MIN first
Clippers Give: Camby

Bobcats Get: Camby
Bobcats Give: Wallace

Wolves Get: Wallace
Wolves Give: Cardinal/protection removed from first to LAC

MIN is going to lose their first one of these year to LAC, and they might as well get it over with for 3 reasons:

1. They already have 2 other first rounders this year.
2. They get a great return of either Camby or Wallace.
3. This is supposed to be a weak draft.

[shrink]

Well, I'd say trading for Camby is a non-starter. We're way too far from being a contender to consider him.

Gerald Wallace is worth thinking about, and he has many admirers on the Wolves board. Is he worth a probable Top 5 pick though? Wallace has an equitable contract, but I am a little concerned by its length ($9.5 mil though 2013) particularly with Crash's syle of play and injury history. I'd probably take Cardinal's valuable expiriring and the pick on a rookie scale salary for 4 years.

[Dan's with the Wolves]

That brings up an interesting idea.

Would the Wolves/Clippers consider picking a player (the Clippers like) with the miami pick and trading the player to the Clippers for the return of the future top 10 protected pick?

Actually something similar to this would work with any team - much like the chalmers pick/trade last year.