Do the Wolves have Lottery Luck?
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2009 2:03 pm
Who's been the luckiest team in the lottery over the last ten years?
If you were like me, you'd have immediately answered "The Bulls!" and might have slipped in a couple curses at David Stern. But the answer to this question is based on how you define "lucky." CHI has had a lot of picks in the top 3, but over the last ten years, but when I looked, CHI has also had one of the 3 worst records five times.
Me being me, I decided to analyze the last ten years, to see which teams have been "lucky" and which teams have been "unlucky." To determine this, I calculated how many net slots a team has gone up or down in the lottery. It works, but it depends on what you consider "lucky." The "luckiest" team has been CHA, because ten years ago they turned the #13 pick in the draft into the #3, and moved up a lot of slots. Now, these are more than slots -- they are individual players -- and you may view the luckiest team as the one that got the #1 pick in the 2003 draft. CLE had the worst record, and was able to maintain the #1 spot and get LeBron James, so you may decide that's far luckier than beating greater odds to get the third pick in a draft with the final spot in the lottery. However, for simplicity, I looked at position movement in the lottery.
The luckiest teams, and the main way they made their mark, have been:
+7 CHA: 13th spot in 1999 got them the 3rd pick (Baron Davis)
+5 NJN: 7th spot in 2000 got them the #1 pick (Kenyon Martin)
+4 CHI: 9th spot in 2008 got them the #1 pick (Derrick Rose). They've been lucky to not fall much as well.
+4 POR: 6th spot in 2007 got them the #1 pick (Oden), and 5th spot in 2005 got them #3 (Tyrus Thomas/Aldridge)
+4 HOU: 5th spot in 2002 got them #1 pick (Yao)
The least lucky?
-6 GSW: In 2001 and 2002, they had the worst, and second worst records, and ended with a 3 and 5 pick.
-4 BOS: Worst record in 2007, and they didn't get a top 3 pick.
For most teams though, it generally evens out. You may jump ahead once, but gradually you slip back as teams with worse records happen to win a pick, and knock you down a slot. MIN is a net -1, and for the last 4 years in the lottery, has gotten exactly the pick their record would indicate.
If you're interested, Draft Express has a great site for this, particularly when you combine it with their draft history database.
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-draft-lottery-history/
If you were like me, you'd have immediately answered "The Bulls!" and might have slipped in a couple curses at David Stern. But the answer to this question is based on how you define "lucky." CHI has had a lot of picks in the top 3, but over the last ten years, but when I looked, CHI has also had one of the 3 worst records five times.
Me being me, I decided to analyze the last ten years, to see which teams have been "lucky" and which teams have been "unlucky." To determine this, I calculated how many net slots a team has gone up or down in the lottery. It works, but it depends on what you consider "lucky." The "luckiest" team has been CHA, because ten years ago they turned the #13 pick in the draft into the #3, and moved up a lot of slots. Now, these are more than slots -- they are individual players -- and you may view the luckiest team as the one that got the #1 pick in the 2003 draft. CLE had the worst record, and was able to maintain the #1 spot and get LeBron James, so you may decide that's far luckier than beating greater odds to get the third pick in a draft with the final spot in the lottery. However, for simplicity, I looked at position movement in the lottery.
The luckiest teams, and the main way they made their mark, have been:
+7 CHA: 13th spot in 1999 got them the 3rd pick (Baron Davis)
+5 NJN: 7th spot in 2000 got them the #1 pick (Kenyon Martin)
+4 CHI: 9th spot in 2008 got them the #1 pick (Derrick Rose). They've been lucky to not fall much as well.
+4 POR: 6th spot in 2007 got them the #1 pick (Oden), and 5th spot in 2005 got them #3 (Tyrus Thomas/Aldridge)
+4 HOU: 5th spot in 2002 got them #1 pick (Yao)
The least lucky?
-6 GSW: In 2001 and 2002, they had the worst, and second worst records, and ended with a 3 and 5 pick.
-4 BOS: Worst record in 2007, and they didn't get a top 3 pick.
For most teams though, it generally evens out. You may jump ahead once, but gradually you slip back as teams with worse records happen to win a pick, and knock you down a slot. MIN is a net -1, and for the last 4 years in the lottery, has gotten exactly the pick their record would indicate.
If you're interested, Draft Express has a great site for this, particularly when you combine it with their draft history database.
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-draft-lottery-history/
