MIN .. POR small one

shrink · Post #1 » by **shrink** » Mon May 11, 2009 3:27 am

I was doing some analysis on a POR poster's off-season plan, which included trading a $3 mil TPE for a pick in the 20's It ended up pointing right to MIN, so I thought I'd bring it over. Would you do this trade?

POR GETS: Madsen $2.82 (exp) + #28 pick
MIN GETS: TPE

It seems strange to me to use a late pick to move an expiring contract, but it seems to get far enough under the salary cap to offer a deal bigger than the MLE to a guy in 2009 free agency. That could be an important thing. Here's the discussion:

shrink wrote:
farzi wrote: 2nd. trade the Ike Diogu 2.5 million dollar TPE for a early to mid 20's draft pick

This is fair value, but you're going to have a hard time accomplishing it.

The problem here is that you need to find a team in that range, who dislikes a player so much that they'll give up their late first to see him gone. Unfortunately, these are small contracts, and I assume you only want expirings. Fit is going to be an issue.

The Diogu exception is $2,912,823, so you can take on salaries from $3,012,823 or less.

Now check the player lists:

20 Jazz -- Ronnie Brewer? nope
21 Hornets -- Armstrong? Wright? I am doubtful.
22 Mavericks --Shawne maybe, though I doubt Cuban cares to shed salary in 2009, to help POR
23 Kings -- Hawes or Jason Thompson? Nope
24 Trailblazers --nope
25 Thunder -- Sefolosha? More space is better, but I thought they liked the kid.
26 Bulls -- Noah is a "no." Maybe. Linton Johnson + DeMarcus Nelson is only $1.7.
27 Grizzlies -- Haddadi and Darrell Arthur? Nope.
28 Timberwolves -- MADSEN .. wow, maybe. perhaps they could clear a little more than the MLE.
29 Lakers -- Farmar for $1.9? I doubt it.
30 Cavaliers -- Hickson. He's a god I hear, so no.

Wow, I feel lucky that when I got involved just for the analysis, it lands on the team I follow. Would POR trade the TPE for the #28? Maybe. Would MIN trade the #28 to move Madsen's expiring? Tough to say yes or no. MIN probably doesn't want all three picks. Maybe if we get that new capologist, he'd realize our space under the cap would be about:

$2.5 mil estimated right now
$2.84 mil Madsen gone
$0.84 mil No cap hold on the pick
------------------------------------------------------
$6.2 mil under the cap.

Perhaps if MIN saw a guy in free agency this summer...?

kandiking · Post #2 » by **kandiking** » Mon May 11, 2009 3:33 am

In this market I would think that POR (one of the few buyers) would be able to get a low first rounder for under 2.82 mil. Though if we can do it, I wouldn't mind.

casey · Post #3 » by **casey** » Mon May 11, 2009 3:45 am

Portland won't give up $3.7Mil in cap space for the 28th pick (not to mention adding two roster spots). I can't imagine any reason they would do that. As far as we go, sure, I guess. But it's pretty unlikely that we would sign anybody this summer, which is the only scenario where this would happen.

skorff26 · Post #4 » by **skorff26** » Mon May 11, 2009 12:06 pm

casey wrote:Portland won't give up $3.7Mil in cap space for the 28th pick (not to mention adding two roster spots). I can't imagine any reason they would do that. As far as we go, sure, I guess. But it's pretty unlikely that we would sign anybody this summer, which is the only scenario where this would happen.

I could see this happening; and they wouldn't be adding 2 roster spots, Madsen would be bought out and there's a good chance they would draft a foreign player and stash him in Europe such as Casspi or Llull (kind of like what they did with Rudy, Freeland, Koponen). Thus they wouldn't be gaining any roster spots, just adding another young player that they could bring over one day.

GopherIt! · Post #5 » by **GopherIt!** » Mon May 11, 2009 12:21 pm

this trade smells like updog.

funkatron101 · Post #6 » by **funkatron101** » Mon May 11, 2009 2:58 pm

GopherIt! wrote:this trade smells like updog.

What is that?

deeney0 · Post #7 » by **deeney0** » Mon May 11, 2009 3:09 pm

I think you've got to stop focusing on tactics, shrink, and star looking at strategy. If you've got a big picture reason why the Wolves do this, that's one thing - but giving up #28 to dump Madsen isn't of itself and end, it should only be a means. Why would the Wolves do this? What else does it facilitate?

NewWolvesOrder · Post #8 » by **NewWolvesOrder** » Mon May 11, 2009 3:40 pm

dump Smith for TE, sign Gorgat with the cap space:4mil+4.5mil+5mil+5.5mil+6mil, last 2 years non-guaranteed. the dude is a good center and is still young, he's just stuck behind D.Howard.

john2jer · Post #9 » by **john2jer** » Mon May 11, 2009 4:06 pm

I think GopherIt just found out what's updog.

cpfsf · Post #10 » by **cpfsf** » Mon May 11, 2009 4:44 pm

How can anyone have the heart to trade Madsen, that's like kicking a puppy.

Anyway, still angry over the stunt Portland pulled with Miles.

casey · Post #11 » by **casey** » Mon May 11, 2009 5:13 pm

skorff26 wrote:
casey wrote:Portland won't give up $3.7Mil in cap space for the 28th pick (not to mention adding two roster spots). I can't imagine any reason they would do that. As far as we go, sure, I guess. But it's pretty unlikely that we would sign anybody this summer, which is the only scenario where this would happen.

I could see this happening; and they wouldn't be adding 2 roster spots, Madsen would be bought out and there's a good chance they would draft a foreign player and stash him in Europe such as Casspi or Llull (kind of like what they did with Rudy, Freeland, Koponen). Thus they wouldn't be gaining any roster spots, just adding another young player that they could bring over one day.

We already have our own late 1st to do that with. We should be big players in the free agency/trade market this summer. Giving up that much cap room for so little would not happen. Even if it were Miami's pick instead of Boston's I can't see it happening.

Devilzsidewalk · Post #12 » by **Devilzsidewalk** » Mon May 11, 2009 5:57 pm

casey wrote:
They already have their own late 1st to do that with. They should be big players in the free agency/trade market this summer. Giving up that much cap room for so little would not happen. Even if it were Miami's pick instead of Boston's I can't see it happening.

don't you mean "we" already have "our" own lat 1st to do that with......you commie traitor?
Go edit your post comrade.

shrink · Post #13 » by **shrink** » Mon May 11, 2009 7:49 pm

john2jer wrote:I think GopherIt just found out what's updog.

Why does actual timberwolves discussion always get drowned out by yoga talk?

john2jer · Post #14 » by **john2jer** » Mon May 11, 2009 7:58 pm

shrink wrote:
john2jer wrote:I think GopherIt just found out what's updog.

Why does actual timberwolves discussion always get drowned out by yoga talk?

With all the knee injuries, I think yoga talk IS Wolves talk.

Devilzsidewalk · Post #15 » by **Devilzsidewalk** » Mon May 11, 2009 8:08 pm

is updog slang for something

theGreatRC · Post #16 » by **theGreatRC** » Mon May 11, 2009 8:09 pm

I don't think Portland needs the 28th pick, who will probably be a player who will rot on the bench until his contract is up.

So basically Portland is giving us a TPE for Madsen.

GopherIt! · Post #17 » by **GopherIt!** » Tue May 12, 2009 3:32 am

funkatron101 wrote:
GopherIt! wrote:this trade smells like updog.

What is that?

what is what?

GopherIt! · Post #18 » by **GopherIt!** » Mon May 18, 2009 8:35 am

I've been waiting for Funkatron's reply for like weeks now...

funkatron101 · Post #19 » by **funkatron101** » Mon May 18, 2009 1:41 pm

That word that you said. What does it mean?

john2jer · Post #20 » by **john2jer** » Mon May 18, 2009 2:28 pm

Ok I'll jump on the grenade, but I better get a purple heart for this...

What's updog?

Gosh, it's like playing wingman at the bar and getting stuck with the fat friend.