Hollinger's Draft Rater

[ChazzleDazzle]

Hollinger came out with his draft rater for this year. He had love ranked at #1 in Projected PER last year and he ended up leading all rookies--there's some misses once in awhile, but it still makes for interesting reading.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft200 ... ter-090618

It's Insider Only, so for those who can't see it, he's got Ty Lawson at #1 (acknowledging that its likely incorrect to have him over Griffin). Evans at #3, Daye at #4 and Curry at #5. Harden is at #10, Thabeet is #11.

Holiday, Teague, Henderson, Collison, Williams and Maynor are all in the teens. Those who are potential busts according to his formula are Hill, Mullens, Johnson, Budinger, Young, Mills and, most interestingly, DeRozan.

This is college players only, so Rubio isn't in the ratings.

It's certainly not an ironclad guarantee, but it does make me even more interested in an Evans/Lawson or Curry/Daye draft (at 6 and 18, if we don't move up...)

[GopherIt!]

Chazz, could you list the actual PER #'s thx

[GopherIt!]

Chazz, could you list the actual PER #'s thx

[GopherIt!]

(I didn't actually double post, there is just an echo passing through the LAN right now.)

[GopherIt!]

(I didn't actually double post, there is just an echo passing through the LAN right now.)

[ChazzleDazzle]

In his tables, it's labeled "Draft Rater" but I think it's the same number he's called "Projected PER" in previous years.

He did also include a note that some are going to look lower than you might expect, because the use of regression analysis tends to wind up with a lot clumped in the 10-11 range. Sounds like this is intended to be more for comparison's sake within a given year's class (or compared to previous year's predictions) than an actual predictor of PER. This is also a predictor of value 3 years down the road (so Sam Young is dramatically downgraded as he's much older than the rest of the class...)


Top 12 rated collegians for 2009
Player School Draft Rater
1. Ty Lawson North Carolina 16.34
2. Blake Griffin Oklahoma 16.21
3. Tyreke Evans Memphis 15.02
4. Austin Daye Gonzaga 14.24
5. Stephen Curry Davidson 14.18
6. Nick Calathes Florida 13.66
7. DeJuan Blair Pittsburgh 13.56
8. Danny Green North Carolina 13.28
9. Jonny Flynn Syracuse 12.99
10. James Harden Arizona State 12.97
11. Hasheem Thabeet Connecticut 12.90
12. Earl Clark Louisville 12.88
13. Jrue Holiday UCLA 12.73
14. Jeff Teague Wake Forest 12.50
15. Gerald Henderson Duke 12.17
16. Paul Delaney UAB 11.85
17. Aaron Jackson Duquesne 11.83
18. Darren Collison UCLA 11.80
19. Terrence Williams Louisville 11.80
20. Leo Lyons Missouri 11.53
21. Eric Maynor VCU 11.35
22. John Bryant Santa Clara 11.30
23. DeMarre Carroll Missouri 11.18
24. Tyler Hansbrough North Carolina 11.11
25. Wayne Ellington North Carolina 11.04

26. Jordan Hill Arizona 10.97
28. B.J. Mullens Ohio State 10.81
30. James Johnson Wake Forest 10.63
31. Chase Budinger Arizona 10.51
45. Derrick Brown Xavier 9.55
48. DaJuan Summers Georgetown 9.38
51. Jodie Meeks Kentucky 9.35
52. Sam Young Pitt 9.34
54. DeMar DeRozan USC 9.26
62. Toney Douglas Florida State 8.56
68. Patrick Mills Saint Mary's 8.36
83. Jack McClinton Miami 6.64

[Esohny]

Regression analysis really has to be taken with a grain of salt, beyond what was mentioned about the "clumping" possibility, the results could very well mean nothing.

*Edit: apparently I have reading issues and thought Chad Ford and Hollinger were the same guy initially.

[big3_8_19_21]

Hollinger =/= Ford

[Esohny]

Yeah, I don't know why I wrote Chad Ford...probably because he sucks and makes the ridiculous statements. So my points still stand, but I feel slightly less uneasy about Hollinger making a regression model.

[Devilzsidewalk]

definitely to be taken with a grain of salt. All we can say for sure is that Derozan sucks and should not be drafted.

[the_bruce]

An evans + lawson combo was my draft day dream a month or so ago!

[Dewey]

Well, it's becoming more apparent each day that Evans is no longer considered a diamond in the rough ... these types of analyses have a wacked approach, but this does support the majority opinion.

- I was surprised to see Thabeet hang in there while Hill dropped hard ... that has been the common opinion, but I've figured Hill to be a real good pick up for someone.

- I'd say Daye is clearly going to be the official 2009 diamond in the rough ... athleticism, length, and skill ... once he fills out some, look out !!!

I have developed a clear bias for Rubio, Evans, and Daye in this draft (in that order). I sincerely believe these three players will be legitimate difference makes in the NBA, long-term.

[big3_8_19_21]

Daye isn't particularly athletic.

[the_bruce]

Daye is aight, he'd be a great pick @28! I'd pick him @18 if Teague, Lawson, Clark, Williams are all off the board.

[ChazzleDazzle]

He has now posted his International player ratings (Insider)
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft200 ... cts-090623

Pekovic is still rated as the best overall prospect (he breaks them down into draft eligible this year, drafted in past years and rights held, and true free agents).

However, he's got both Rubio and Jennings rated extremely poorly:

Rubio
"OK, it's time to shine a harsher light here. There's one thing working hugely against Rubio's status as an A-list prospect that nobody seems to want to mention, so let me put it out there: There's very little evidence he can score at anything approaching an acceptable rate for an NBA point guard.

We have very little recent Euroleague data to work with from Rubio -- just a 66-minute sample from this year and a larger sample from two years earlier -- but both sets translate to scoring about five points per 40 minutes and shooting in the low 30s. Ugh. Rubio shot better in the Spanish ACB league this season, including 25-of-62 on 3-pointers, but he also shot only 39 percent on 2s against a lower level of competition.

Same goes for his alleged breakout in the Olympics -- as heralded as he was for his play, he made nine baskets in eight games and shot 28.1 percent for the tournament. And while one of those games was against a team full of U.S. All-Stars, he wasn't bedazzling the Germans or Angolans either. Obviously he's a Jason Kidd-like rarity in that he can have a heavy impact on the game without scoring, but if his shooting numbers don't improve, he'll make Kidd look like Rick Barry. "


Jennings
"Jennings' translated numbers from Europe were awful. While in his case we might take them with a grain of salt given the adjustment he was making, we should at least consider the possibility that he's just not that good. What stands out is that his performance translated to being both a bad shooter (34.1 percent) and a rotten playmaker (4.3 assists per 40 minutes). Most suspect he'll fare better in an NBA system, but the improvement would need to be fairly large for him to make an impact."


It's an interesting argument, and if nothing else just serves to drive home the truth that there are risks associated with just about everyone...


Hollinger's Top Rated International Draft Prospects
Player Pts/40 Reb/40 Ast/40 FG Percent PER
Oguz Savas 15.0 8.4 3.2 47.0 14.76
Omri Casspi 14.9 8.4 1.3 44.4 12.06
Sergio Llull 11.1 2.7 6.2 41.2 10.14
Brandon Jennings 11.4 3.7 4.3 34.1 8.06
Milenko Tepic 10.1 5.7 6.0 34.2 7.90
Gasper Vidmar 7.4 12.3 0.9 41.3 6.56

Drafted/Rights Held
Player Pts/40 Reb/40 Ast/40 FG Percent PER
Nikola Pekovic 21.7 9.9 1.0 55.8 18.36
Erazem Lorbek 17.4 11.4 2.0 51.4 17.16
Tiago Splitter 16.4 10.0 3.2 57.6 16.52
Fran Vazquez 13.7 11.7 1.8 59.3 15.86
Lior Eliyahu 15.5 11.5 4.7 54.2 15.25
Ersan Ilyasova 15.3 16.0 2.1 40.2 14.48
David Andersen 16.0 9.3 2.1 44.7 12.86
Georgios Printezis 13.8 8.0 1.6 56.0 11.51
Josh Childress 10.7 8.8 2.4 41.4 9.77


True Free Agents
D'Or Fischer 15.4 12.5 2.1 61.7 17.97
Ioannis Bourosis 17.3 16.0 1.8 52.0 17.90
Terrell McIntyre 16.7 3.8 7.5 45.1 16.54
Ksistof Lavrinovic 13.0 12.2 1.6 40.7 13.79
Carlos Arroyo 12.9 3.7 6.4 34.6 10.21
Carlos Cabezas 11.8 4.0 4.0 39.0 7.90


He also talks about Pekovic as a PF:
"Nikola Pekovic (Timberwolves) has been the highest-rated player in the Euroleague each of the past two years. An onerous contract is likely to keep him in Europe for a few more years, and the Wolves aren't exactly hurting for bruising big men right now. But he projects as a quality power forward with an impressive scoring rate, and sooner or later he'll be in the NBA. "

[Esohny]

Hopefully this sort of press pumps up Pekovic's value so we can trade his rights for something good.