RealGM

In a memo announcing next season's salary cap and luxury-tax threshold, sent out shortly before the league's annual July moratorium on signings and trades was lifted at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, NBA teams also received tentative projections from the league warning that the cap is estimated to drop to somewhere between $50.4 million and $53.6 million for the 2010-11 season.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4312837

Without moving Songalia and Telfair it looks like the Wolves will have less cap room then they originally planned

With all of our expirings, do you see a lower salary cap giving us higher leverage in trade proposals?

Also, looks as though the Knicks plan to have two top FA's just went out the door.

I'd assume every team already knew this though, they've been talking about this being a likely possibility

For comparison, the current salary cap is $58.68 mil.

Our 2010 numbers look like this:

$13,000,000 Jefferson
$4,818,000 Songalia
$1,000,000 Gomes (on a buy out)
$3,638,280 Love
$3,703,472 Brewer?
$2,700,000 Telfair
$2,928,600 Rubio
$2,660,000 Flynn
$899,000 Ellington

$5,000,000 2010 picks/cap holds to fill roster
--------------
$40,347,352

Assuming the middle, $52 mil, we'd have nearly $12 mil in raw cap space if there is no other movement.

Also, the lower the number, the more financial strength we'll have. Hollinger mentioned a $50 mil scenario six months ago, which would have several teams scrambling to add a little cap space to maintain their 2010 plans. We could help with that. If you recall, we helped PHI add a little bit of extra cap space to make a max deal for Brand last year, and we recompensed for the $3 mil or so with a look at Carney and a future protected UTA 1st.

That's a lot lower than was originally expected. The first numbers floated were a hair above 55mil, so to drop 2-5mil below that is huge.

in order to keep our cap flexibility we should trade Big Al ASAP

/green font

What it could possibly mean is that Free Agents won't make nearly as much unless they re-sign with their own teams. Especially the top-end players, if they want the max amount of money as possible they will need to stay with their own teams cause they can offer the most over the cap. This also can hurt the teams that thought they were getting two max free agents.

And then given the amount of free agents next year, and the amount of holes to fill on teams, I think you may see the price tags go down a little bit. You wont see a mid tier player sign for 7-8 million because there are a lot of holes to fill. Obviously forecasting, but it may help to set the salary standards for future years.

Has anyone checked to see the projected number of open roster spots next season and then the total number of free agents available? And which teams take the biggest hits because of this new expected salary cap? You might find teams with not as much cap room and a lot of spots to fill next offseason. Those are the teams that will be paying assets to clear deals extending past 2010.

Anybody know what the MLE might be next year? I'm thinking $4,200,000-$4,750,000. I might be way off, but that seems like a decent adjustment from where it is now.

HL Slamdunk wrote:Anybody know what the MLE might be next year? I'm thinking $4,200,000-$4,750,000. I might be way off, but that seems like a decent adjustment from where it is now.

The 2008 salary cap was $58.68, and the MLE was $5.585.

Using the same rations, if the MLE dropped to $52 mil, I get an MLE of $4.95

shrink wrote:The 2008 salary cap was $58.68, and the MLE was $5.585.

Using the same rations, if the MLE dropped to $52 mil, I get an MLE of $4.95

Also it puts the lux tax @ around 64-65.

That could be a huge problem for some teams.

Shrink you've been talking for months about using our cap space in 2010 to facilitate transactions....not necessarily signing the big name guys, but helping the teams that sign them get it done. Just wondering what you think the Wolves might be able to do....specific examples. Do you think it would be similar to the Carney trade last year - i.e. we take get a draft pick just for taking on a couple players? Not doubting your thinking by any means, just wondering what you might have in mind specifically.

Right now, its hard to be specific, so I have to apologize. There are four types of deals that will be highly appealing -- even moreso with the shrinking salary cap. Some overlap.

1. Trade raw cap space. For example, facilitate a deal for a nice free agent destination like MIA, in a S&T.

2. Add raw cap space. Similar to our PHI deal last year, the shrinking cap will leave some teams short of their ability to offer a max deal. With the cap holds for a full roster, does NYK still have enough for two max deal players?

3. Help a rebuild. I think the most likely teams here are CHA and MIL, but it could be several other teams as well.

4. Fix someone's lux. CHA, NOH, ORL

hopefully raw cap space tastes better than raw fish.

shrink wrote:Right now, its hard to be specific, so I have to apologize. There are four types of deals that will be highly appealing -- even moreso with the shrinking salary cap. Some overlap.

Ha, I see what you did there. Nice.

We need to move Songalia and Telfair. We then might be getting close to offering someone the max (and be one of the few teams). Even if we don't sign anyone, our cap space would become very valuable and we could get a ton of value for that cap space (maybe go after a free agent in 2011).

Also, I'll throw out this possibility that might make some people wait until 2011 for cap space is that most of the big name free agents have someone sort of option for the 2010-2011 season, but with the cap dropping so much, some of these guys might not opt out and wait until 2011 to sign.

My new dream (trade Telfair and Songalia for expirings, Smith for a SF, and maybe Gomes for an expiring + assets).
Use our cap space in 2010 to get either draft picks or young talent.
Sign a free agent in 2011.

skorff26 wrote:We need to move Songalia and Telfair.

That's why I didn't like the Telfair signing to begin with (and Gomes).

skorff26 wrote:Also, I'll throw out this possibility that might make some people wait until 2011 for cap space is that most of the big name free agents have someone sort of option for the 2010-2011 season, but with the cap dropping so much, some of these guys might not opt out and wait until 2011 to sign.

Not a bad idea. That's one of the advantages of only having two good players on your team, we don't have any guys that need an extension coming off their rookie deal for a while. Gomes would still have to be waived at the beginning of next summer though.

I still think the big names will either sign an extension or opt out. With the current CBA coming to an end I would think that the max contract guys (LBJ, Wade, Bosh) would try and get their money next summer before a new CBA comes into effect. I'm sure that if there is speculation by their agents that the new CBA will have shorter amount of max years on a contract or even smaller max altogether they will become free agents for sure.

Gomes is actually a good financial piece of trade bait, because his $4.35 mil contract is only guaranteed for $1 mil. If we're willing to make deals to sell cap space in 2010, Gomes serves as an instant $3.35 mil in raw cap space .. like a mini-Stackhouse. Gomes can also play too, so a team might keep him for a year, and dump him next year when his deal is also only guaranteed for $1 mil.

Telfair's a tough question though. First, for his production, he's a decently priced option. Many teams are running $4-$6 mil back-up PG's out there. Second, if Rubio doesn't come over, we need him. Flynn's a rookie, and Bobby Brown is a third stringer. However, if Rubio joins us, we should try to ditch him to clear the cap space. Unfortunately, with all the rookie PG's drafted, even an adequately-priced Telfair isn't going to have a lot of takers. Who's out there that can still use a well-priced back-up PG?

shrink wrote:Gomes is actually a good financial piece of trade bait, because his $4.35 mil contract is only guaranteed for $1 mil. If we're willing to make deals to sell cap space in 2010, Gomes serves as an instant $3.35 mil in raw cap space .. like a mini-Stackhouse. Gomes can also play too, so a team might keep him for a year, and dump him next year when his deal is also only guaranteed for $1 mil.

Telfair's a tough question though. First, for his production, he's a decently priced option. Many teams are running $4-$6 mil back-up PG's out there. Second, if Rubio doesn't come over, we need him. Flynn's a rookie, and Bobby Brown is a third stringer. However, if Rubio joins us, we should try to ditch him to clear the cap space. Unfortunately, with all the rookie PG's drafted, even an adequately-priced Telfair isn't going to have a lot of takers. Who's out there that can still use a well-priced back-up PG?

Celtics need one. However, they've already traded him away once, so who knows if they'd want him back.