RealGM

I posted this on the trade board, but I wanted to review the economic disgression that teams are exhibiting again this year. This is a quick-and-dirty breakdown of the 2009 Free Agent Signings, and a brutal estimate of their 2009 salaries. Without inside info, I applied a standard raise to everyone's contract, but while this won't be accurate for everyone, it should allow for comparisons.

Player Total Years 2009
Steve Nash... $22... 2... $10.5
BenGordon...$55... 5... $9.0
H Turkoglu... $53... 5... $8.7
P Millsap... $36... 4... $7.8...
Jason Kidd... $25... 3... $7.6
Varejao... $50... 6... $6.5
Marion... $39... 5... $6.4

Artest... MLE... 5... $5.85
Gortat... MLE... 5... $5.85
T Ariza... MLE... 5... $5.85
R. Wallace... MLE... 3... $5.85
McDyess... MLE... 3... $5.85

Villanueva... $35... 5... $5.7
M Bibby... $18... 3... $5.5
J Jack... $20... 4... $4.3
Pachulia... $19... 4... $4.1
Anderson... $25... 5... $4.1
B Bass... $18... 4... $3.9
Grant Hill... $6.3... 2... $3.0
Wilcox... $6... 2... $2.85
A Parker... $6... 2... $2.85
J Moon... $9... 3... $2.7
Dhnt Jones... $11... 4... $2.4
Ilyasova... $7... 3... $2.1
Shn Brown... $4.2... 2... $2
J Pargo... $2... 1... $2
Chnig Frye... $4... 2... $1.9
Barnes... $3.5... 2... $1.6
Ratliff... $1.3... 1... $1.3
L Hunter... $1.3... 1... $1.3

First, note the quality of players that are agreeing to the MLE. That's a baseline for me, since every team can basically offer it, so it provides economic competition to set a fair salary.

Second, note there are some very good players that accepted less than the MLE. Bibby played well last year. Villanueva and Jarrett Jack are decent players. We no longer see fifth starters and key bench players getting the MLE, as owner become more frugal.

Third, only three free agents have a deal starting higher than the $7's. There are some pretty nice names in that list, but they aren't getting huge deals.

Finally, while a lot of teams have spent their money, decent free agents remain, and might not get paid. How many of these are better players than the MLE crowd? $9 mil Kirk Hinrich's need not apply.

Top Remaining Free Agents:
Lamar Odom
David Lee
Ramon Sessions
Marvin Williams
Allen Iverson
Nate Robinson
Raymond Felton
Linas Kleiza
Glen Davis
Wally Szczerbiak
Hakim Warrick

Now obviously there's a couple guys left to sign, but what stands out for me is that, aside from Milsap and maybe Ben Gordon, the rest of the guys getting MLE and above are getting a bit up there in the years. Well there are the over-paid role players on contenders as well; Gortat, Andy V, Ariza.

Kind of a funky group of free agents this year.

There really isn't a lot of talent on there. Would a team made up of all these guys even sniff the second round of the playoffs?

Its rumored that the NBA is discussing another Allan Houston exception, so the ranks of free agents may swell. Personally I hope that doesn't happen, because it unfairly penalizes us for being financially responsible, and worse, our raw cap space will become less valuable in trade to teams trying to clear salary.

However, it may make additional free agents available that we could be interested in. Most of these guys would be poor players with bad contracts, but some will just be bad contracts that a team needs to dump to avoid the lux. For example, MIL may want to clear Micheal Redd (at $17 mil and $18.3 mil) rather than Gadzuric at %6.7 and $7.2. Now Redd is clearly over-priced, but if he becomes a free agent, he might be worth a $6-$7 mil deal. If we dumped a player (Songalia?), we may have enough room under the salary cap to beat other teams MLE offers, and he'd still be close to his home.

Man Shrink, you really aren't a Michael Redd fan are you? Might be worth $6-$7 million?

Dr.Krapinsky wrote:Man Shrink, you really aren't a Michael Redd fan are you? Might be worth $6-$7 million?

Great shooter, doesn't defend, doesn't make players better, and not young enough to change.

Kevin Martin got $8.7

Alright, I'll go $8.

thanks shrink. nice summary. what this tells me is that the MLE players of 2009 are much higher value players than MLE players of preceding years. the players still unsigned include some talented players who not so long ago were projected to get big paydays.

I thought this was a funny article --

http://dimemag.com/2008/08/best-and-wor ... s-of-2008/

The 4 best free agent signings of 2008 --

1. Elton Brand ==> FAIL

2. Baron Davis ==> Double FAIL

3. James Posey ==> FAIL

4. Josh Smith ==> Ok, but still got too much $

Hmm we should send gomes + songalia somewhere in a crude salary dump and sign M williams to the MLE. Gomes and Williams are about equal to me in terms of value, but Williams certainly has more upside.

bruceallen61 wrote:Hmm we should send gomes + songalia somewhere in a crude salary dump and sign M williams to the MLE. Gomes and Williams are about equal to me in terms of value, but Williams certainly has more upside.

Hmm...I'm willing to bet $100 that Atlanta would match that, and then i would be willing to bet $1 million dollars more.

Dr.Krapinsky wrote:

bruceallen61 wrote:Hmm we should send gomes + songalia somewhere in a crude salary dump and sign M williams to the MLE. Gomes and Williams are about equal to me in terms of value, but Williams certainly has more upside.

Hmm...I'm willing to bet $100 that Atlanta would match that, and then i would be willing to bet $1 million dollars more.

I sure wouldn't take that bet.

I do hope that Marvin signs his QO, and we can try to sign him next year when he's unrestricted. Add him, draft one of the top SGs and a C, and the Wolves are in business.

I also still hope Kahn can move Songaila for expirings, it can only increase options.

Esohny wrote:

Dr.Krapinsky wrote:

bruceallen61 wrote:Hmm we should send gomes + songalia somewhere in a crude salary dump and sign M williams to the MLE. Gomes and Williams are about equal to me in terms of value, but Williams certainly has more upside.

Hmm...I'm willing to bet $100 that Atlanta would match that, and then i would be willing to bet $1 million dollars more.

I sure wouldn't take that bet.

I do hope that Marvin signs his QO, and we can try to sign him next year when he's unrestricted. Add him, draft one of the top SGs and a C, and the Wolves are in business.

I also still hope Kahn can move Songaila for expirings, it can only increase options.

Good, then if it happens we can bet against each other.

Rev, can I borrow $1 million?