Updated 2009 TW Draft Grade-Post Rubio Stays Home!

Dan's with the Wolves · Post #1 » by **Dan's with the Wolves** » Wed Sep 2, 2009 12:51 am

Now that we know Rubio is staying close to home for two more years. I thought we should re-evaluate the Wolves draft.

# 5 Rubio - staying in spain for at least two more years.
# 6 Flynn - A born leader to man the point and be the leader of this team
#18 Traded to Denver for Charlotte pick top 12 protected next year
#28 Ellington - Shooting gurad to pair with Flynn in the Backcourt
#45 trade to Dallas for a future second round pick (most likely lower pick).
#47 Norel ?

I still like what they did in the first round.
I don't see anyone after the #6 pick that has the value of Rubio. He is a very valuable trading chip probably peaking at the 2011 draft.
I really like Jonny Flynn (just like Kahn) as a true floor leader on this team
Trading the 18 seems like an increase in value especially if it turns into the #13 next year (Any Mullens Love at 18)
I also really like Ellington at 28. I really liked what he showed in the NCAA against Michigan State. MVP

The second round seems like a punt to me.

I would have like to see Danny Green at 45. Although he may be redundant with Brewer I think he will be player in the NBA. The Dallas pick will most likely be a pick in the 50s and probably not a player in the NBA.

Norel at 47, I don't know. Will he or anyone picked after him have a career?

Esohny · Post #2 » by **Esohny** » Wed Sep 2, 2009 2:50 am

Has there been a big change? Kahn said 5 minutes after the draft that we very likely would be waiting a year or two for Rubio.

Dan's with the Wolves · Post #3 » by **Dan's with the Wolves** » Wed Sep 2, 2009 3:35 am

He said they would be willing to wait. Or rather if any team could afford to wait, it was the Wolves.

But now that it's official, does that change anyones mind?

Post #4 » by **ranger001** » Wed Sep 2, 2009 8:08 pm

It makes sense to me that Kahn thought Rubio would be gone before #5 and had decided to take one of Evans/Harden along with Flynn. He should have had a contingency trade if Rubio fell to him. A number of teams would have been willing to give up good assets for Rubio at #5 so in that respect I say that Kahn did not cover all his bases and in retrospect did not do his job properly.

Of course he tried to cover up by saying he was willing to wait 2 years but the effort that he went into to get Rubio shows that he really wanted Rubio right away. Two years was certainly not what he was hoping for.

AQuintus · Post #5 » by **AQuintus** » Wed Sep 2, 2009 8:19 pm

ranger001 wrote:A number of teams would have been willing to give up good assets for Rubio at #5 so in that respect I say that Kahn did not cover all his bases and in retrospect did not do his job properly.

If a team was willing to move up to five to draft Rubio, then they'd also be willing to trade for his rights after he was already drafted (since they're basically the same thing). The fact that has not been worked out between draft night and today suggests that either "a number of teams" were not willing to give up good assets to get Rubio, or that Kahn got those offers and didn't think that they were good enough.

Honestly, though, Kahn took the time to actively trade away Mark Madsen and Sebastian Telfair. Do you honestly believe that he didn't do his due diligence in looking into some Rubio trades?

Of course he tried to cover up by saying he was willing to wait 2 years but the effort that he went into to get Rubio shows that he really wanted Rubio right away. Two years was certainly not what he was hoping for.

I don't see why wanting someone to come over immediately, but being alright with it if they don't has to be mutually exclusive, but ok, I guess.

Post #6 » by **revprodeji** » Thu Sep 3, 2009 2:22 am

Our goal coming into the draft was simple. We wanted to move assets in order to get one of Rubio/Thabeet/Harden. My understanding was that we did not care which one, but that we wanted one of them. When we made the Washington trade it was basically for Flynn. We fell in love with Flynn and understood the need to bring in assets.

cpfsf · Post #7 » by **cpfsf** » Thu Sep 3, 2009 4:42 pm

So was Norel's only purpose to pay DKV 500K?

BTW, I hate the Memphis front office so very much for expecting unfair trades (ie #5/6 for #2). Thabeet could have easily fallen to #5 but in the end it worked out just fine for us as we got Rubio anyway (but it could have been worse).

Post #8 » by **ranger001** » Thu Sep 3, 2009 9:01 pm

AQuintus wrote:If a team was willing to move up to five to draft Rubio, then they'd also be willing to trade for his rights after he was already drafted (since they're basically the same thing). The fact that has not been worked out between draft night and today suggests that either "a number of teams" were not willing to give up good assets to get Rubio, or that Kahn got those offers and didn't think that they were good enough.

Honestly, though, Kahn took the time to actively trade away Mark Madsen and Sebastian Telfair. Do you honestly believe that he didn't do his due diligence in looking into some Rubio trades?

I don't believe he looked into trading #5 before the draft seriously because he never expected Rubio to be there. After the draft he would have taken some calls maybe but the buzz was never that Rubio was available.

Looking at the situation now, do you believe he would have done the same thing if he knew Rubio was going to fall to #5? I'm guessing you will say yes but for my viewpoint I would say he would have tried harder to trade #5 if he knew what was going to happen. If you say he would take the same course of action it means he thought it better to risk losing an asset in 2 years for nothing inthe hope that asset works out than try to trade that same asset. That seems like a huge risk to me.

Esohny · Post #9 » by **Esohny** » Thu Sep 3, 2009 9:52 pm

ranger001 wrote:
AQuintus wrote:If a team was willing to move up to five to draft Rubio, then they'd also be willing to trade for his rights after he was already drafted (since they're basically the same thing). The fact that has not been worked out between draft night and today suggests that either "a number of teams" were not willing to give up good assets to get Rubio, or that Kahn got those offers and didn't think that they were good enough.

Honestly, though, Kahn took the time to actively trade away Mark Madsen and Sebastian Telfair. Do you honestly believe that he didn't do his due diligence in looking into some Rubio trades?

I don't believe he looked into trading #5 before the draft seriously because he never expected Rubio to be there. After the draft he would have taken some calls maybe but the buzz was never that Rubio was available.

Looking at the situation now, do you believe he would have done the same thing if he knew Rubio was going to fall to #5? I'm guessing you will say yes but for my viewpoint I would say he would have tried harder to trade #5 if he knew what was going to happen. If you say he would take the same course of action it means he thought it better to risk losing an asset in 2 years for nothing inthe hope that asset works out than try to trade that same asset. That seems like a huge risk to me.

I think that's a reasonable position. If he had been known further in advance that Rubio would likely be there at 5 and Flynn would still be available at 5 or 6, he may have explored more scenarios with other teams along the lines of "if Rubio is there at 5, what will you trade for him?"
Not that there necessarily would have been any deals worth taking.

Dan's with the Wolves · Post #10 » by **Dan's with the Wolves** » Thu Sep 3, 2009 10:19 pm

cpfsf wrote:So was Norel's only purpose to pay DKV 500K?

BTW, I hate the Memphis front office so very much for expecting unfair trades (ie #5/6 for #2). Thabeet could have easily fallen to #5 but in the end it worked out just fine for us as we got Rubio anyway (but it could have been worse).

That's a good point.

The way that Harden fits so well with the Thunder, they would have had a tough decision to take Thabeet instead.

Does anyone know what the wolves were offering in addition to the 5 or 6 to get the 2 and take Rubio?

AQuintus · Post #11 » by **AQuintus** » Thu Sep 3, 2009 10:40 pm

ranger001 wrote:I don't believe he looked into trading #5 before the draft seriously because he never expected Rubio to be there.

I don't believe that he looked into trading #5 before the draft, because he had just traded for the pick a few days before.

After the draft he would have taken some calls maybe but the buzz was never that Rubio was available.

Exactly. If he wasn't willing to trade Rubio, why would he be willing to trade the pick that got Rubio?

Looking at the situation now, do you believe he would have done the same thing if he knew Rubio was going to fall to #5?

Yes. Kahn love Rubio and sees him as a future Franchise type player. On top of that, Rubio was pretty clearly the second best prospect in the draft. In my opinion, If you have an opportunity to get the second best player in a draft with any pick 2 and over, you do it without having to think about it. Especially if you're a young, rebuilding team.

I'm guessing you will say yes but for my viewpoint I would say he would have tried harder to trade #5 if he knew what was going to happen.

Perhaps, but I would imagine that he's smart enough to realize that, barring big injuries, Rubio's trade value will be higher in 2 years (and probably next year) than it was at draft time.

If you say he would take the same course of action it means he thought it better to risk losing an asset in 2 years for nothing inthe hope that asset works out than try to trade that same asset.

I really don't think that we're risking losing an asset for nothing, though. Rubio has stated many times that it is his dream to play in the NBA. Even if he decides to never play with the Timberwolves, we should be able to trade him for something more than decent.

That seems like a huge risk to me.

No more risk than taking a guy like DeRozan (who I really like), who is just as likely to bust out of the league Gerald Green style as he is to be an All NBA player.

Post #12 » by **ranger001** » Fri Sep 4, 2009 2:23 am

AQuintus wrote:I don't believe that he looked into trading #5 before the draft, because he had just traded for the pick a few days before.

But did he trade expecting either of Harden or Evans to be there and add them to Flynn? I believe that was his plan, now do you think he thought "if Rubio falls I will take 2 point guards"?

I really don't think that we're risking losing an asset for nothing, though. Rubio has stated many times that it is his dream to play in the NBA. Even if he decides to never play with the Timberwolves, we should be able to trade him for something more than decent.

Well because its his dream doesn't mean he will come regardless. He already had a chance to come and turned it down. I can think of several reasons why he might decide not to come just as he decided not to come this summer. I guess this is the crux of the matter, the likelihood he will eventually be in the NBA, maybe Kahn thinks its a near certainty which is certainly why he would not be unhappy with the way things turned out..

No more risk than taking a guy like DeRozan (who I really like), who is just as likely to bust out of the league Gerald Green style as he is to be an All NBA player.

As 9th pick somehow that risk is easier to swallow imo.

AQuintus · Post #13 » by **AQuintus** » Fri Sep 4, 2009 4:18 am

ranger001 wrote:But did he trade expecting either of Harden or Evans to be there and add them to Flynn? I believe that was his plan, now do you think he thought "if Rubio falls I will take 2 point guards"?

I don't know any specifics, but based on the rumors at the time, I'm pretty sure he got the 5 in the hopes that he could move up to the top 3 to draft Rubio. Barring that he was hoping that either Evans or Harden fell to 5. I think that Rubio falling to the 5 was probably best case scenario for Kahn and drafting Flynn at 6 was just getting the best player available according to their draft board.

Well because its his dream doesn't mean he will come regardless. He already had a chance to come and turned it down. I can think of several reasons why he might decide not to come just as he decided not to come this summer.

The only one that I can think of is the same one that stopped him from coming this year... money. But, fortunately due to a much lower buyout in 2 years, it shouldn't be a problem. Either way, I expect that if Flynn has a good year, Rubio will be traded for a very solid asset next off season and it won't be a problem.

I guess this is the crux of the matter, the likelihood he will eventually be in the NBA, maybe Kahn thinks its a near certainty which is certainly why he would not be unhappy with the way things turned out..

Well, Kahn knows more about Rubio's wishes than either of us do, and he doesn't seem to be too worried.

As 9th pick somehow that risk is easier to swallow imo.

Does a 4 place difference in a draft as weak as this one really matter?