Next Up .. Trading Atkins

[shrink]

In less than two weeks, the 60-day waiting period will expire and we'll be able to combine Chucky Atkins with another player in trade. With a $3.48 mil contract that is only partially guaranteed for $0.76, he can provide $2.72 mil of instant cap space to some lucky team. There is probably no team that needs this less than the Wolves, so he is a very likely trade candidate.

As I wrote in another thread, Atkins deal has more value than a late 1st. Teams occasionally sell late 1sts for $3 mil in cash, and $2.72 mil in payroll savings (and potentially a roster spot), is probably better for most teams. However, for a team over the lux, the savings is doubled .. and may be tripled if Atkins can get them under the lux threshold and allow a team to keep their lux share.

For example, suppose New Orleans had another $6.6 mil expiring Antonio Daniels on the roster, and a mid 1st. If they dealt him for Atkins and OPec, that would save the Hornets:

1.6 125% cap match (I'm stretching this a bit to use Daniels in the example)
2.7 waive Atkins
3.3 lux penalties .. the Hornets are $3.3 mil overthe lux
2.9? returned lux share
--------------------------------
$10.5 mil in savings

While any team might like the savings Atkins contract can provide, he has the most value to a team over the lux, particularly the ones closest to the lux threshold. They are:

MIA ... $2,296,178 over
NOH .. $3,374,049 over
DEN ... $3,669,693 over
NYK ... $4,131,149 over
HOU .. $5,538,941 over

Other teams well over the lux ($8-$21) are: LAL, DAL, BOS, CLE, ORL, UTA, SAS, PHO, WAS. While $5.5 mil and an extra roster space may be appealing, most are contenders and may not be as interested as a team that could get the savings plus perhaps the lux share.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= ... zRug&gid=1

To maximize the cap match number, I expect a deal like:

Atkins + (our big expiring) for other's smaller expiring + assets

That's the thought process, that's the deal, and those are the likely suspects. Come play in my playground.

[Basti]

the heck with it, let's trade Atkins for a 2010 lottery pick. do it Kahn!

[funkatron101]

I wouldn't mind taking a shot at Thad Young. The price is probably too steep though as I would have to imagine the Sixers would want to dump Dally.

[john2jer]

Wolves trade: Chucky Atkins
Rockets trade: Brian Cook and lottery protected 1st

That's basically buying a mid to late future 1st for 2.7mil and a roster spot. Or add in OPec and Brent Barry and it's saving the Rockets almost $4mil.

Barry's pretty much done, but he's a veteran SG that can fill in for the year. Everyone's expiring. Saves the Rockets $8mil aftert the lux.

Brings in a temp PF for those worry about the HUGE loss of Songalia. The only reason for the Wolves to trade Atkins, though, would be to either dump future salary(which we have none of), get a young prospect, pick-up a draft pick, or in a combination for a big time talent increase.

So the point in this would be the 1st round pick.

[Worm Guts]

I think a draft pick would be the most likely and best scenario. With a prospect (like Giddens) we either have to let him go at the end of the season or take on salary. I don't think we've been looking for big talent upgrades, and if we wait until the trade deadline Atkins salary will be guaranteed. A draft pick gives trade ammunition that we could actually use up until the draft, and at worst we could sell it and regain the money that could have been gained by cutting Atkins.

[john2jer]

I think a draft pick would be the most likely and best scenario. With a prospect (like Giddens) we either have to let him go at the end of the season or take on salary. I don't think we've been looking for big talent upgrades, and if we wait until the trade deadline Atkins salary will be guaranteed. A draft pick gives trade ammunition that we could actually use up until the draft, and at worst we could sell it and regain the money that could have been gained by cutting Atkins.

Completely agreed. To take on a big talent/salary, we'd likely make the trade between December 15th and January 10th, as Atkins deal is fully guaranteed as of the 10th of January.

And agreed on the prospect and having to resign him. Giddens has two years as a team option after this year, though, for only $1mil per. If he had the monster 20/14 season that his per36 suggests, I think we'd be ok picking up that team option.

But yeah, future protected 1st would be the best case scenario. Preferably 2011 and out, as we likely have 2, maybe 3 picks in the 2010 draft already.

[funkatron101]

MN Out: Blount, Atkins, Gomes
MN In: Young, Dalembert

PHI Out: Young, Dalembert
PHI In: Blount, Atkins, Gomes

Philly sheds Dally salary, and gets a solid player in Gomes.

Wolves get a younger, cheaper upgrade at SF, and a decent, but overpriced back-up to Al/Love.

Too steep for Minny? Would Philly give up on Young just to dump Dalembert?

[Worm Guts]

Would Philly give up on Young just to dump Dalembert?

I really doubt it.

[john2jer]

Thad Young's nice and all, but to completely kill any further improvement by taking on Dally?

Is this roster good enough to be a contender on into the future?

C - Dalembert/Hollins
PF - Jefferson/Love
SF - Young/Brewer
SG - Ellington/Sessions
PG - Rubio/Flynn

Utah and Charlotte's 1sts? We'd likely lose our own to the Clippers this year after making that deal. We're still a great SG away from being anything special.

Cardinal, Daniels, Brewer and future 1sts packaged together for a Joe Johnson type wing and that might be enough. Hmm, only way we'd do it is if we could do simultaneous deals ensuring that we're getting all the pieces at once.

[Worm Guts]

One of the PG's is also expendable, doesn't really change your point though. Or does it?

[john2jer]

One of the PG's is also expendable, doesn't really change your point though.

You mean just expendiable because we'd presumably have 3 quality PGs? Yeah, completely agreed. I'd assume a package of two big expirings(Cardinal/Daniels), one of the three PGs(Flynn/Rubio/Sessions), and a 1st round pick or two would be an amazing package to net us a great SG. It's kind of on par with the Gasol and KG trades, isn't it?

Young talented prospect - Flynn, Sessions, or Rubio
1st round picks - Utah/Charlotte is better than the Laker pick, and on par with the Sota returned/Boston pick
Cap savings - Daniels/Cardinal is similar to Theo Ratliff

Probably a tad below because Jefferson is better than our 3 PGs, and there's no Gomes or Telfair, but it's on par, if not better than the Gasol trade.

[funkatron101]

One of the PG's is also expendable, doesn't really change your point though. Or does it?

We would be selling Rubio low at this point, but he'll certainly be needed to sweeten the deal for a good SG.

If we get Sessions, and Flynn pans out, I would say that there is little need for Rubio.

[Worm Guts]

I would say it's definitely better than the Gasol trade. That trade didn't have a prospect the caliber of Flynn or Rubio. It's a good enough package to get a legit SG, the only question is one available?

[B Calrissian]

^ Yeah but what great SGs are there? It seems like the most watered down position in the league.

Probable starters (off the top of my head, correct me if I am wrong):
Hawks- Johnson
Celtics- Allen
Bobcats- Bell
Bulls- Salmons
Cavs- West
Mavs- Terry? Barea?
Nuggets- Smith
Pistons- Hamilton
Warriors- Morrow? Jackson? Buike?
Rockets- Ariza/Battier
Pacers- Rush? Jones?
Clippers- Gordon
Lakers- Kobe
Grizzlies- Mayo/Iverson
Heat- Wade
Bucks- Redd
Nets- Lee
Hornets- Posey? Brown?
Knicks- Hughes
Thunder- Harden
Magic- Carter
76ers- Green/Iggy
Suns- Richardson
Blazers- Roy
Kings- Martin
Spurs- Mason/Manu
Raptors- Belinelli? DeRozan?
Jazz- Brewer
Wizards- Foye? Miller?

Not a good selection at all.

[john2jer]

I would say it's definitely better than the Gasol trade. That trade didn't have a prospect the caliber of Flynn or Rubio. It's a good enough package to get a legit SG, the only question is one available?

Agreed and agreed. Ideally someone of the Joe Johnson type, but preferably a year or two younger. Brandon Roy?

Or we just wait for Evan Turner.

[PeeDee]

Thad Young's nice and all, but to completely kill any further improvement by taking on Dally?

Dally is an expiring in 2011, that's not that far off.

[john2jer]

Thad Young's nice and all, but to completely kill any further improvement by taking on Dally?

Dally is an expiring in 2011, that's not that far off.

Hmm... Push the big free agent splash to 2011? Maybe we wait until late-December and see that Philly has bombed hard?

I know Carmelo is a free agent in 2011, any other top name SGs? By then we have a better idea on Rubio. Sign and trade with the assets we have then, and we don't have any of our own guys due a big pay raise in 2011, interesting.

Slight jump this year, monster jump in 2010 as our front court is loaded, and then NBA championship in 2011? I might have to go put my chair back out on Washington Avenue.

[PeeDee]

I'll meet you at Grumpy's. Get us the nachos, and order me a Lonestar.

[shrink]

Wolves trade: Chucky Atkins
Rockets trade: Brian Cook and lottery protected 1st

That's basically buying a mid to late future 1st for 2.7mil and a roster spot. Or add in OPec and Brent Barry and it's saving the Rockets almost $4mil.

Maybe Lowry too can make the swap big enough to get them under the lux threshold. HOU has 17 on their roster now, so pairing it down will save additional money over buy-outs.

If those little deals won't work, HOU needs a three-teamer with Battier or McGrady. Is their 2010 1st worth it for us, if we end up eating $5 mil?

[ritt0093]

**trade cannot be done until Oct. 13th**

MIN IN/NYK OUT

Larry Hughes ($13,655,268)
2012 1st round pick top 3 protected (I dont think they can give a 2011, because their 2010 is owned by Utah)

MIN OUT/NYK IN

Chucky Atkins ($3,480,000)
Mark Blount ($7,967,375)


NYK saves
$2,207,893 (trade)
$2,720,000 (Atkins Buyout)

=$4,927,893

Which gets NY in under the luxury tax threshold by about 750K.