Officlal Prospect thread

[Krapinsky]

Uh oh. We better get to the lottery already, the former doctor is on a bit of a rampage lately due to lack of interesting discussion matter.

[Esohny]

I was thinking of that game when I posted. I figured you as more of a giant lizard than an ape though.

[horaceworthy]

I would imagine (I'm not pretending to have statistical evidence here) that Hayward's usage rate is much higher than SIngler's, which should account for a slight FT discrepancy. Regardless, neither player is good at this, and at the next level this won't be an asset of either player. I'm not as high on Singler as you're making it seem, I just prefer him to Hayward.

I'm getting the impression that you haven't seen much of Hayward and are primarily basing your opinion on some tweets made by DX, mostly from the first half of the title game, so I won't argue with you too much more on this (although it's been a nice way to kill time during a slow period on the board), I'll just respond to this.

FTA/FGA wouldn't be impacted by usage rate, FTA/FGA is itself a rate stat. I'm not making you seem high on Singler, if you feel that's how you're coming across (and I agree that's the case), put it on the statements you chose to make.

Regarding their respective usage rates. Hayward used 24.5% of Butler’s possessions and took 24% of their shots. Singler used 24.2% of Duke’s possessions and took 25.8% of their shots. Singler took the 2nd highest % of shots and used a higher % of possessions than any other Dukie, Hayward ranked third on Butler in % of possessions used and 2nd in % of shots taken (Singler- http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke, Hayward- http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Butler ).

[Krapinsky]

I would imagine (I'm not pretending to have statistical evidence here) that Hayward's usage rate is much higher than SIngler's, which should account for a slight FT discrepancy. Regardless, neither player is good at this, and at the next level this won't be an asset of either player. I'm not as high on Singler as you're making it seem, I just prefer him to Hayward.

I'm getting the impression that you haven't seen much of Hayward and are primarily basing your opinion on some tweets made by DX, mostly from the first half of the title game, so I won't argue with you too much more on this (although it's been a nice way to kill time during a slow period on the board), I'll just respond to this.

FTA/FGA wouldn't be impacted by usage rate, FTA/FGA is itself a rate stat. I'm not making you seem high on Singler, if you feel that's how you're coming across (and I agree that's the case), put it on the statements you chose to make.

Regarding their respective usage rates. Hayward used 24.5% of Butler’s possessions and took 24% of their shots. Singler used 24.2% of Duke’s possessions and took 25.8% of their shots. Singler took the 2nd highest % of shots and used a higher % of possessions than any other Dukie, Hayward ranked third on Butler in % of possessions used and 2nd in % of shots taken (Singler- http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke, Hayward- http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Butler ).

Well, I'm not sure exactly how anyone is supposed to be an expert on Butler basketball players. I've seen them play twice this year, and beyond that I would have to quit my day job. If you've watched 6 or more Butler games this year and don't get paid for it, then I'd be worried about your social life. Relying on Draftexpress' opinion is hardly soemthing to be faulted on, as it's the primary site/service on the internet for scouting college NBA prospects. I could rely on my own scouting abilities 100% of the time over Jon G, but admittedly, Jon G is more of an expert than I, so why not extrapolate what he says with what I see with my own eyes. So I'll take what little I can see, and I'll blend it with some Jon G expertise. Very rarely will I disagree with him on a player, and when I do I will ask him about it. Earlier in the year I questioned him on Damion James. I thought he was a mid first rounder and he had him in the 2nd round. Well, it looks like he now agrees with me!! Re Hayward/Singler -- From what I've seen, and what I've read, and by recently watching them go one on one -- to me it looks like Singler is the better player. Singler by far looked like the best player in that game. Is it possibel he was more athletic and quicker in other games I didn't see ? It's possible, but I doubt it.

This FT/FGA disparity is really not worth the killabytes being used to post it on Realgm. Like I said, neither player will be getting to the stripe at the next level. I think Singler is a late first prospect, which is why I advocated taking him with the Utah pick @ #26. I believe you advocated taking Hayward at #16, making him not only better in your eyes than SIngler but the 10 players in between. Nontheles, I'll assume your stats are correct admit you win the argument with regard to their usage rates. Does this make Hayward better though? Or could you just flip that and say Singler is better at getting his shot off?

And how many of these free throw attempt come in late game situations? It's certainly possible that this mere discrepancy is explained by Hayward getting sent to the line more at the end of games when Butler is in the lead. The point is, this discrepancy doesn't even register in my opinion in assessing them as draft prospects.

[Krapinsky]

I'm also still curious why you think Hayward's freshman year is more important or as important as his sophomore year.

[horaceworthy]

I'm also still curious why you think Hayward's freshman year is more important or as important as his sophomore year.

Never said it was more important, said that given the big picture (Hayward's FT% both years, his shooting stroke, his performance freshman year, my own observations, and those of people like Jon G, Kevin Pelton, David Thorpe and Fran Fraschilla), this year's results from distance likely aren't indicative of how Hayward will convert from the outside going forward.

It really wasn't that difficult to catch Butler on TV this year. Between the NCAA tournament, their conference tournament, ESPN's mid-season Bracket Buster games, and early season tournament, they were probably on national TV around a dozen times this year.

There's nothing wrong with using DX to supplement your opinion (as I did in the first paragraph of this post). You run into difficulties when you base most of it on some tweets, and kind of pick and choose which bits you pay attention to, which seems to be the case with you regarding Hayward.

They also didn't recently go one on one, their teams played each other. Keeping the ball out of Hayward's hands was the primary focus of arguably the best defense in college basketball. They switched every screen off the ball and hedged aggressively and made him give it up on the screens he did have the ball. The handful of times Butler adjusted and had Hayward bring it up the floor he had no trouble whatsoever getting to the rim. Singler was primarily checked by the Willie Veasley, a solid defender, but a huge mismatch in Singler's favor given that Veasley's 6'3". You're confusing being by far the biggest mismatch in the game with being by far the best player in the game. They rarely matched up one on one. You don't think there's something to the fact that one of the best college coaches ever saw stopping Hayward as the key to winning the title?

Those aren't my stats, either. They're Ken Pomeroy's. Pretty safe to assume they're correct, it's one of the better resources out there for college stats that go a little beyond the box score.

I see Hayward as a mid-1st prospect, and yes, I advocated taking him at #16. I think we need a small forward and I think he's the 2nd best prospect at that position in this draft (3rd if Vesely winds up at SF in the NBA), and that his game fits well with the way Rambis likes to run things.

[Krapinsky]

I meant a chance to see them play at the same time, but Singler did guard Hayward for a stretch.

Hayward is their best player, it's no secret that stopping him was most important.

I never thought they were your stats, i just didn't know where you got them from.

[moss_is_1]

my eyeballs, Ellington has shown he can be a pretty solid defender. Plus combine numbers are crap because Kevin Love had better agility drills than CP3.

I'm not the one quoting combine numbers. Funny how you use them to make your argument, but then when they go against your argument, oh it's your eyeballs.

http://www.visionworld.com/eye-exams/

Because someone's wingspan, height, and vertical mean more then someone's agility numbers. Proof that Kevin Love ran a better time than CP3...

[Krapinsky]

my eyeballs, Ellington has shown he can be a pretty solid defender. Plus combine numbers are crap because Kevin Love had better agility drills than CP3.

I'm not the one quoting combine numbers. Funny how you use them to make your argument, but then when they go against your argument, oh it's your eyeballs.

http://www.visionworld.com/eye-exams/

Because someone's wingspan, height, and vertical mean more then someone's agility numbers. Proof that Kevin Love ran a better time than CP3...

Umm... now you're changing the discussion to fit your viewpoint. We were talking about lateral quickness and athleticism right? Playing defense/keeping a defender in front of you, yes?

[moss_is_1]

Umm... now you're changing the discussion to fit your viewpoint. We were talking about lateral quickness and athleticism right? Playing defense/keeping a defender in front of you, yes?

I'm not changing anything, you're the one getting your panties in a bunch because I said I can use my eyeballs to judge a players quickness and ability to stay in front of a man, because combine numbers don't mean jack if someone doesn't have instincts.

[Krapinsky]

Umm... now you're changing the discussion to fit your viewpoint. We were talking about lateral quickness and athleticism right? Playing defense/keeping a defender in front of you, yes?

I'm not changing anything, you're the one getting your panties in a bunch because I said I can use my eyeballs to judge a players quickness and ability to stay in front of a man, because combine numbers don't mean jack if someone doesn't have instincts.

Hey i'm just an ****, don't worry about it. I'm not the one that relied on combine numbers and was never relying on them to make my point. I have no idea what Wayne's combine numbers are, but watching him I guess we are seeing different things. I don't see the lateral quickness you do.