Trading Ryan Gomes contract

[shrink]

OK, here's the problem that's been making me scratch my head lately. Its kind of complicated, so I'll do my best to explain it, but I'll be open to your questions since I'll miss issues for sure.

We all know that Ryan Gomes contract is partially guaranteed. it looks like this:

2009-10 $3,892,500
2010-11 $4,260,000
2011-12 $4,627,500
2012-13 $4,995,000

But if he's waived before 6/30/10, it's partially guaranteed for

2010-11 $1,000,000
2011-12 $1,000,000
2012-13 $750,000

OK, consider the possiblity of trading him after the season was over, before the draft, as we did for Foye/Miller. If another team traded for Ryan and waived him, they'd add roughly $3 mil in 2010-11 cap space, which is a pretty valuable asset. It would, on the other hand, cost us $3 mil of our own cap space. Right now, my number is that it's about $12.8 mil (including waiving Gomes ourselves), so removing it could make it tough for an offer for someone like rudy Gay. However, it should be pointed out that $12.8 can change, depending on where picks fall, where the cap is set, and other things. See this thread (viewtopic.php?f=22&t=988980&start=0) for more details.

I should also point out the rules for post season deals. Teams can trade as soon as their team plays their final game. Only contracts that have guaranteed salary for 2010-11 are eligible to be traded (no expirings). Waiving Gomes doesn't affect this year's lux numbers - they are based on the salary on the last day of a team's individual season (82nd game).

Anyway, what this boils down to is whether saving the $3 mil by waiving Gomes is worth more to us in saved cap space, than it is to other teams. I'd imagine that team over the 2010-11 lux would like the savings, but they have all season, so I think we'd have more value for the cap space reduction. However, I would say NYK and CHI would both love to edge their cap space number a bit, since it might make the difference whether they can add an elite free agent.

Both teams have stripped most of their roster from 2010-11 salary already, so trades are difficult. For NYK, their salaries look like

Danilo Gallinari 3,089,040 3,304,560
Wilson Chandler 1,255,440 2,130,482
Toney Douglas 996,240 1,071,000
Bill Walker 736,420 854,389 (unguaranteed if waived before 7/7)

They are on the edge of two max deal free agents, so an extra $3 mil would be helpful. I'm curious if either team would do something like this:

Gomes + CHA pick for Gallinari + Walker or Douglas

CHI has also eliminated a lot of salary:

Luol Deng 10,365,000 11,345,000
Kirk Hinrich 9,500,000 9,000,000
Derrick Rose 5,184,480 5,546,160
Joakim Noah 2,455,680 3,128,536
James Johnson 1,594,080 1,713,600
Taj Gibson 1,039,800 1,117,680

Unfortunately, Rose and Noah are probably their two most untradable players. CHI is right on the edge of having max deal money too, so $3 mil would be highly valuable. Before looking, I thought that $3 mil in cap space should be worth about their pick (#13-18), and I would personally love that future CHA pick they got for Tyrus Thomas (same protections as ours, 2 years behind). However, I really have no interest in the longer contracts of Deng (thru 2014) or Hinrich (thru 2013). A three team trade might work

CHI GIVES: Deng + pick
CHI GETS: Good $8 mil player + Gomes

MIN GIVES: Gomes
MIN GETS: $3 mil bad player + pick

THIRD TEAM GIVES: $8 mil good play + $3 mil bad player
THIRD TEAM GETS: Deng

I don't know who else CHI is trying to foist Deng upon. However, if we were forced to take Deng, perhaps this?

Gomes + Sessions + Hollins for Deng + pick

CHI would get $3 mil in savings (waiving Gomes) + save $1 mil more by removing two roster cap holds + pick cap hold > roster cap hold.

Anyway, the treatise here is the same as it is for all my trade discussions. Is there an asset we have that would be valued more by another team. If so, can we come up with a deal where we give it to them, and they send us back stuff so that both sides get something more valuable? I think a couple teams out there, ones with a legit shot at Wade, bosh, or LeBron, would value Gomes partially guaranteed deal more than even we would.

[Casperkid23]

If the Timberwolves do a sign and trade for another team's FA, or absorb a large contract for a quality player; Gomes, Sessions (Flynn?), Pekovic, CHA pick (if deferred)... all could be somewhat valuable commodities.

The Timberwolves waiving Gomes should not be an option. If he didn't want him here in 2010, I'm sure a playoff team would've given the Timberwolves an expiring for him. Kahn missed that boat, waiving him would be a mismanagement of an asset.

[[classik]]

Very rare poster here...enjoy reading your thoughts, though.

I think trading Gomes before 6/30 will be difficult due to the smaller size of his contract. I do not see a lot of players teams are wanting to give up in that $4M-$4.5M range. My personal opinion is that he will be traded to a team like New Orleans as they are over the tax next year. I expect to see something like

Gomes + Utah Pick for Julian Wright + 2010 1st (currently 12th). Personal thought is NO would take the Utah pick and just sell it for $3M on draft day.

Why for NO - it saves NO $1.8M in salary for Wright plus ~$1.6M for their original pick AND they get $3M cash for selling the Utah pick. Total savings = $9.8M
Why for MN - $1.8M to trade up from late 1st to late lotto seems worth it to me.

[revprodeji]

I believe S/t deals could not happen before the 6/30 deadline. Not exactly sure.

[john2jer]

A FA can't be signed until July 7th, therefore a S&T deal couldn't happen until July 7th. My calendar states that's after June 30th.

When thinking about the off-season, the area that I struggle most with is that we OBVIOUSLY need a 1st/2nd option on the wing. That's just how the game is now. Well, most options that are legit for the Wolves in trading bring back SFs. Gay, Deng, Granger?, Wallace... We need one, clearly, but With our cap space, Jefferson, and Gomes, that's pretty much all we can bring back because the other positions don't have great young options.

Plus, I'm falling in love with that Prince/Det 1st deal that's been tossed around. The 1st would bring us back our defensive center in either Whiteside or Aldrich, move Hollins/Gomes for Deng in the off-season to obtain that Charlotte pick, well now we have two SFs. Can Prince play SG? Can he come off the bench? Deng's not my favorite option due to injury risks. Gay is probably my favorite option, but then I worry about his defense and if this year was just a contract year for him then next year he'll be back to slug mode.

And with the hope that we get Turner in the draft, we're going to end up in the Portland/Chicago situation of "too many" assets that we have to consolidate, or they'll lose value. That also means giving up on guys most of us have grown to love, like Brewer and/or Pekovic.

It's a nice problem to have, but how do you solve a problem like Maria?

[John Doe [MIN]]

Oklahoma City! Oklahoma City! They're perfect!

The problem is that a lot of the teams that were previously going to fall just short of having max cap space (LAC, CHI, SAC) made deadline moves that ensured that they would have max space with room to spare. New York still works, as they could potentially fall a little short, but it looks very unlikely that they'll actually have two guys really worthy of clearing space for. Sure, if you're a few million short of inking LeBron and Bosh, you do whatever it takes to make it happen. But if the prize is Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer, I don't think they're looking to move Gallinari to make it happen.

Oklahoma City is a better candidate. Like Portland last year, with its two high 2006 draft picks, 2007 draftees Kevin Durant and Jeff Green will both be due up for extensions starting in 2011. 2010 is Oklahoma City's last chance to be under the cap. Assuming they keep their core together, they'll be over the cap for the next decade. I'm thinking more Maynor-type deals aren't going to be their goal this time around.

Numbers: OKC has $40 million guaranteed, plus two 1st rounders (theirs and PHO) that will add another $3 million or so. Add a $16.5 million dollar max free agent, and they're looking at a total of $59.5. $3 million worth of sheddable salary looks like almost exactly what they'll need (though we have no way of knowing for sure at this point).

I see two workable options: Gomes could traded for an unwanted expiring + one or both of the 1st rounders predraft. OKC could cut up to $7 million this way, depending on the player they sent out. Option 2 is Gomes + minor incentive for Jeff Green. They like Jeff Green, but he's really not that great, especially as a power forward. If moving him meant replacing him with Chris Bosh, they'd have to go for it.

[shrink]

First, before I forget, you guys are right about sign-and-trades. I would toss in one wrinkle though, that I didn't learn until last week .. players can opt in for their next year before the 7/1 cut-off date. Most of these elite free agents have a player option for next year, which they could accept, and then be traded before the 7/1 deadline. Of course, that's risky to make a trade for a player that may not extend (or maybe, risky for the player as well), but the possibility remains.

Second, I may believe that the extra $3 mil in cap space has more value to CHI or NYK (or others?), but it truthfully has a lot of value to us. That extra money is what we would need to make a legit offer for Rudy Gay, so if we do a Gomes deal, it most likely takes the chances of getting Gay off the table. That hurts. However, selling raw cap space will have the most value while all the elite free agents are available, and every team is dreaming .. plus Gomes ability to offer that cap space expires if he's not traded before 6/30. Its a tough call.

[shrink]

(wistfully) OKC. Is there nothing they can't do?

So many trade possibilities. And of course, what if WE provided them with their "max" free agent in Al Jefferson? They threw us their cap space, Harden and picks for Jefferson and Gomes, and use him as a player? Or take out picks and use Green?

Jefferson + Gomes for Harden + Green + $8.5 mil additional cap space?

[Casperkid23]

Oh, I didn't read realize the premise of the thread was only about trades pre-July so that the other team could waive him for more space. I thought it just a general thread on Gomes and his contract, hence my talk of S&T and absorbing contracts; and saying the Timberwolves waiving Gomes not being an acceptable option.

MIA, CHI, and OKC seem like the three best targets for these types of trades. I wonder how a three team deal with MIA and a taker for Beasley would be received if MIA gets back Gomes and a mid-lotto, while the Timberwolves get back a contract and one of the MIA mid-firsts (if CHA pick is deferred).

[Narf]

You are looking at Deng the wrong way Shrink. He's a good young player with a big contract, not a bad asset if you have the space. So we trade Gomes, Sessions, Hollins, and our 2 2nd rounders for Deng, Chicago's pick, and Charlottes future pick. Sessions is worth Chicago's 1st, and they want to win now so it helps them out with a cheap young veteran guard. Then we draft Alabi or Udoh or Sanders with Chicagos pick to be Hollins replacement and Flynn moves to the bench for John Wall. See what I did there?

[shrink]

Oh, I didn't read realize the premise of the thread was only about trades pre-July so that the other team could waive him for more space. I thought it just a general thread on Gomes and his contract, hence my talk of S&T and absorbing contracts; and saying the Timberwolves waiving Gomes not being an acceptable option.

No worries. I couldn't even hold the line myself (last post), and I was the OP.

[shrink]

You are looking at Deng the wrong way Shrink. He's a good young player with a big contract, not a bad asset if you have the space. So we trade Gomes, Sessions, Hollins, and our 2 2nd rounders for Deng, Chicago's pick, and Charlottes future pick. Sessions is worth Chicago's 1st, and they want to win now so it helps them out with a cheap young veteran guard. Then we draft Alabi or Udoh or Sanders with Chicagos pick to be Hollins replacement and Flynn moves to the bench for John Wall. See what I did there?

I don't know who else CHI is trying to foist Deng upon. However, if we were forced to take Deng, perhaps this?

Gomes + Sessions + Hollins for Deng + pick

So I'm dragging my feet here not because I disagree that Deng couldn't help us, but .. ugh .. that contract!

I'd definitely be on board though with your addition .. two 2nds for the future CHA pick.

How would you compare Deng to Gay, if they got the same $51 mil contract?

2010-11 $11,345,000
2011-12 $12,325,000
2012-13 $13,365,000
2013-14 $14,275,000

Bird in the hand?

[Narf]

You are looking at Deng the wrong way Shrink. He's a good young player with a big contract, not a bad asset if you have the space. So we trade Gomes, Sessions, Hollins, and our 2 2nd rounders for Deng, Chicago's pick, and Charlottes future pick. Sessions is worth Chicago's 1st, and they want to win now so it helps them out with a cheap young veteran guard. Then we draft Alabi or Udoh or Sanders with Chicagos pick to be Hollins replacement and Flynn moves to the bench for John Wall. See what I did there?

I don't know who else CHI is trying to foist Deng upon. However, if we were forced to take Deng, perhaps this?

Gomes + Sessions + Hollins for Deng + pick

So I'm dragging my feet here not because I disagree that Deng couldn't help us, but .. ugh .. that contract!

I'd definitely be on board though with your addition .. two 2nds for the future CHA pick.

How would you compare Deng to Gay, if they got the same $51 mil contract?

2010-11 $11,345,000
2011-12 $12,325,000
2012-13 $13,365,000
2013-14 $14,275,000

Bird in the hand?

Deng is far and away a better defensive player, but not as good on offense. They'll probably have a pretty similar value on the court for the next 5 years, but imo it's easier to find a volume shooter than a defensive/rebounding SF with pretty good offense. Deng is a #3, while Gay is a #2 who might become a #1 scorer at some point (unlikely but possible). But on the flip side, Deng can guard a #1 scorer better then Gay can guard a #3 and he's a better passer and rebounder to boot. Now, Gay took some big steps on D from what I can tell, so it's certainly possible that he'll excel there at some point. And 5 years from now there's no question Gay will be the better player to have as Deng ages and Gay is in his prime. So I don't know who I'd rather have, but I do think they are pretty equal in value and they'll both be paid about the same next year.

You'll also notice that we have Deng + 10 mil in cap space in this scenario. So given that they are about equal, would you rather have 10 mil in cap space or Gomes/Hollins/Sessions next year? I think that's the real question.

[horaceworthy]

]Deng is far and away a better defensive player, but not as good on offense. They'll probably have a pretty similar value on the court for the next 5 years, but imo it's easier to find a volume shooter than a defensive/rebounding SF with pretty good offense. Deng is a #3, while Gay is a #2 who might become a #1 scorer at some point (unlikely but possible). But on the flip side, Deng can guard a #1 scorer better then Gay can guard a #3 and he's a better passer and rebounder to boot. Now, Gay took some big steps on D from what I can tell, so it's certainly possible that he'll excel there at some point. And 5 years from now there's no question Gay will be the better player to have as Deng ages and Gay is in his prime. So I don't know who I'd rather have, but I do think they are pretty equal in value and they'll both be paid about the same next year.

You'll also notice that we have Deng + 10 mil in cap space in this scenario. So given that they are about equal, would you rather have 10 mil in cap space or Gomes/Hollins/Sessions next year? I think that's the real question.

Deng is 8 months older than Rudy Gay.

[revprodeji]

There has been a rumor that Deng was about 6 years older then he really is.

[Narf]

hmm, why did I think Deng was 26 going on 27? I blame the beer, I haven't been drinking enough of it lately.

[Foye]

There has been a rumor that Deng was about 6 years older then he really is.

Yes. He doesn't look like 24. 30 seems about right.

[john2jer]

There has been a rumor that Deng was about 6 years older then he really is.

I know there's the rumor that he's older, but 6 years is quite a bit. I think it's closer to 2 years.

[slinky]

We need to make the decision on Gomes this summer right? Otherwise he is guaranteed for the next several years? This isnt a decision we can make each summer, right?

Under that premise, I think we need to cut gomes this summer. I just dont see a role for him on this team in the future. I see Brewer as the future backup SG/SF. And Gomes versatility to play PF, has little value when we have Love, Jefferson, Pekovic. As much as I like Gomes, my hope is that he isnt more than the 3rd SF off the bench, and I cant justify spending 4-5 million over the next few years for that.

With that, I would try to trade Gomes for a draft pick and cheap player. And personally I would think about a future 1st rnd pick. Or we could take on better assets by taking on a 2011 expiring contract.

Gomes+Utah pick for PHI 1st+Kapono (+ 2nd or future pick)
Gomes for NOH 1st+Mo Pete
Gomes/Sessions for TJ Ford/IND 1st
Gomes/Cha for Radmanovich/GSW 1st

Not saying any of those deals are fair, or the other teams would do it, but the basics are all the same. A team trades an asset(pick+2011 contract) to either cut/keep gomes. All these deals cut in to our cap space this year, but even with cap space, I am a hesitant to spend 12 million on 1 player in FA.

[LordBaldric]

I've been reading the Bulls board for years and have never seen such a rumor. We are to believe that Deng has been pulling the wool over the eyes over his British schoolmasters and authorities since he was 8 years old, in some scheme that would help him play in the NBA when he grew up? Sounds about as credible as the rumors that Greg Oden is actually 40 years old.