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for stat heads - wages of wins - Kidd #1 last year, #5 this

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dacher
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for stat heads - wages of wins - Kidd #1 last year, #5 this 

Post#1 » by dacher » Fri Feb 1, 2008 5:20 pm

netsdaily just posted an interesting advanced stat site, which estimates the number of wins produced per player by correlating wins to each individual stat

Kidd looks really good with his formula. I was looking over his methodology and think Kidd is helped by the high value placed on 3s made and rebounds, steals, which Kidd excels at.

I haven't checked the other teams ... but adding Nets wins according to his methodology, you get 17.7 for half a season, which is really close. We where at 18 wins

Code: Select all

Rank Player Team Games Games Started Minutes Played WP48 Wins Produced Projected Wins Produced

5 Jason Kidd Nets 40 40 1,487 0.348 10.8 21.6
47 Vince Carter Nets 36 32 1,379 0.153 4.4 8.8
117 Sean Williams Nets 36 19 768 0.137 2.2 4.4
138 Richard Jefferson Nets 41 41 1,597 0.053 1.8 3.5
140 Josh Boone Nets 34 17 739 0.108 1.7 3.3
203 Eddie Gill Nets 13 1 149 0.186 0.6 1.2
286 Marcus Williams Nets 13 0 126 -0.011 0.0 -0.1
311 Darrell Armstrong Nets 28 0 314 -0.016 -0.1 -0.2
317 Billy Thomas Nets 4 0 8 -0.746 -0.1 -0.2
371 Antoine Wright Nets 30 10 820 -0.020 -0.3 -0.7
402 Jamaal Magloire Nets 23 2 254 -0.106 -0.6 -1.1
433 Nenad Krstic Nets 12 8 180 -0.332 -1.2 -2.5
439 Malik Allen Nets 39 12 662 -0.114 -1.6 -3.1
444 Bostjan Nachbar Nets 38 1 840 -0.129 -2.3 -4.5
445 Jason Collins Nets 38 22 616 -0.224 -2.9 -5.8


According to these formulas, the Nets bench is the enemy, negative contributor, costing us 9 games thus far.

Carter productivity dropped from #23 to #47 (33% drop), and RJ is just nowhere as productive as his stats and Nets fans (including me) think he is.

http://www.wagesofwins.com/AllPlayersMid0708.html

Technical Notes and 2006-7 top 50:
http://www.wagesofwins.com/CalculatingWinsProduced.html

Nets numbers 2005-2007
http://www.wagesofwins.com/Nets0507.html

Blunt preseason 2007 Nets team analysis
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/09/30/ ... surrender/
Then in 2004-05 something changed. Yes, Vince Carter replaced Kerry Kittles as one of the top three players. And yes, Jefferson was hurt. But the big change was in the supporting cast. When the Nets were contenders the supporting cast produced more than 20% of the team
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Post#2 » by dacher » Fri Feb 1, 2008 5:24 pm

Basically, for the Kidd critics, when it comes to producing wins-losses, Kidd is pulling the load like no one else on the team.

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