How many wins?

[vincecarter4pres]

The 10th overall pick has actually been a notoriously good pick over the years.
The 11th not so much, it's been pretty crappy.
It's a mainly empty and superstitious stat and lends more to what team and GM held said pick, but it is a stat none the less.

Easily the 2 best players at the 11th overall pick in about the last 15 drafts are Andres Beidrins and Mickael Pietrus, no lie and the runners up mostly aren't worth even mentioning. I mean the next best player was literally Bonzi Wells and that was in 98, but if you go back to 1980, between then and 93 the 11th pick produced some straight studs including one sure fire HOFer and maybe another one.

Mean while, the 10th pick has rewarded with some serious studs the last 15 years or so, including Paul Pierce, of course Brook, Joe Johnson, Spencer Hawes, Caron Butler, Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes(A lot of friggin' Nets, huh?), Jason Terry, Lindsey Hunter, Eric Dampier, Eddie Jones and Danny Fortson. I mean in the last 16 drafts, really the only crap players have been Mouhamed Sene and Luke Jackson.

[Hansel]

Yeah, I didn't mean the 10th pick as in the 10th pick. I meant late lotto. Just missing the playoffs but not tanking well enough to get a franchise piece. It sucks.

[jeff1624]

The 10th overall pick has actually been a notoriously good pick over the years.
The 11th not so much, it's been pretty crappy.
It's a mainly empty and superstitious stat and lends more to what team and GM held said pick, but it is a stat none the less.

Easily the 2 best players at the 11th overall pick in about the last 15 drafts are Andres Beidrins and Mickael Pietrus, no lie and the runners up mostly aren't worth even mentioning. I mean the next best player was literally Bonzi Wells and that was in 98, but if you go back to 1980, between then and 93 the 11th pick produced some straight studs including one sure fire HOFer and maybe another one.

Mean while, the 10th pick has rewarded with some serious studs the last 15 years or so, including Paul Pierce, of course Brook, Joe Johnson, Spencer Hawes, Caron Butler, Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes(A lot of friggin' Nets, huh?), Jason Terry, Lindsey Hunter, Eric Dampier, Eddie Jones and Danny Fortson. I mean in the last 16 drafts, really the only crap players have been Mouhamed Sene and Luke Jackson.

Jarvis Hayes is far from being a good 10th pick. Considering the talent that went a couple of picks ahead of him(TJ Ford, Chris Kaman and Kirk Hinrich) and those that were picked after him(Travis Outlaw, Boris Diaw, David West, Josh Howard, Leandro Barbosa) I'd add him to the mediocre section of all 10th picks.

[enetric]

We also could have wound up with Danny Granger.

Contrary to popular belief, Thorn isn't a great drafter, at least when a no brainer doesn't fall his way or when he doesn't have a top pick.

I do not fault him for Granger but I agree...draft wise he has not alway made the best of choices he has had his mistakes.

Why on granger? He dropped way off the radar because people didnt fear his talent...they feared his health. Cant fault Rod alone for that. 10 GMs let him slide for that same reason. Lets see if he can have a healthy career or if he costs Indy a ton of cash for DNP's.

Where Rod screwed the pooch is actually the draft he gets the most credit for. The RJ draft.


We trade Griffin the 7 pick for Rj and two others. You trade down because you are looking to add value on the late picks. RJ saved his ass on that trade because he sucked it on the other two. Much as we appreciated Twin at times....and as much as I hte Zach Randolph....that was awful. And Brandon Armstrong? You are going PG and you pass on Parker and Arenas for that guy....awful.

Did great on Nenad.

Did great on Lopez...although I have this feeling if Bayless ever gets his shot to really play...the kid could be an offeivnse superstar in this league....we'll see how that works out.

Boone and Williams were the right picks...late firsts they just didnt pan out. Actually Boone is about what I expected for a late round big. Serviceable. Marcus dropped like a stone...everyone felt we got a steal. Turns out he didnt drop just for off court reasons. he simply sucks at the NBA level.



Who else? He got Kmart right.


See, I am not of the midset to simly pick apart every pick with...here are all the guys who were better if tther was a needle in a haystack that someone found. Like...Boozer or Redd in round two. That isnt bad drafting by us or anyone else...its hey look what you found.

[Adam1221]

I honestly wouldnt be surprised with anything this team acheives, really with such a young team with undeveloped talent anything from the best (well anything below 45 wins) to the worst (anything above 17) too many if's to make a worthwhile prediction

Harris is the only sure thing on this team he'll still have those 20 something points and 6-7 assits.
The if's and the can's start with just about everyone else.

Can Lopez continue to develop into a top 5 NBA C like he did in his rookie season now that the team needs him as the second scorer?
Can Lee have a Harris like explosion in a new enviorment that allows him to use his potential?
Can Twill end up being as good as he should be?
Will the bench be dependable again?
Can Yi learn basic NBA stuff like how to drible the ball?
Will Frank's rotation finally make some sense?


That said I wouldnt mind sucking and adding another terrific asset like the #1 pick to this team

Some of you guys want this team to tank..........that's not good guys really.
The only team's that should tank are the injured veteran team's ala Washington of this season, they already have stuff like chemistry and a winning attitude and dont need to develop their players.
With a young talented team like this one you want to establish a winners attitude from the get go and develop your players as much as possible through win's.
That's something that even the #1 pick cant do.

[vincecarter4pres]

Anyone else notice Lee's absolutely wretched PER?
I am not a huge fan of per, I also don't dislike it, I try to take it for what it's worth, but Lee's PER was just horrific, even for a low useage rookie, at a whopping 10.8!
We're talking DeShawn Stevenson/Martell Webster/Jarvis Hayes/Trenton Hassell/Greg Buckner/etc. BAD.
ewww....

[enetric]

I honestly wouldnt be surprised with anything this team acheives, really with such a young team with undeveloped talent anything from the best (well anything below 45 wins) to the worst (anything above 17) too many if's to make a worthwhile prediction

Harris is the only sure thing on this team he'll still have those 20 something points and 6-7 assits.
The if's and the can's start with just about everyone else.

Can Lopez continue to develop into a top 5 NBA C like he did in his rookie season now that the team needs him as the second scorer?
Can Lee have a Harris like explosion in a new enviorment that allows him to use his potential?
Can Twill end up being as good as he should be?
Will the bench be dependable again?
Can Yi learn basic NBA stuff like how to drible the ball?
Will Frank's rotation finally make some sense?


That said I wouldnt mind sucking and adding another terrific asset like the #1 pick to this team

Some of you guys want this team to tank..........that's not good guys really.
The only team's that should tank are the injured veteran team's ala Washington of this season, they already have stuff like chemistry and a winning attitude and dont need to develop their players.
With a young talented team like this one you want to establish a winners attitude from the get go and develop your players as much as possible through win's.
That's something that even the #1 pick cant do.

Thats a misunderstanding on your part. No one wants the team to tank. We want it to lose. There is a huge difference.

[vincecarter4pres]

Where Rod screwed the pooch is actually the draft he gets the most credit for. The RJ draft.

We trade Griffin the 7 pick for Rj and two others. You trade down because you are looking to add value on the late picks. RJ saved his ass on that trade because he sucked it on the other two. Much as we appreciated Twin at times....and as much as I hte Zach Randolph....that was awful. And Brandon Armstrong? You are going PG and you pass on Parker and Arenas for that guy....awful.

I was just talking about this with a couple people on the NBA Draft Board a few weeks ago.
He screwed up just brilliantly with those last 2 picks, passing up on the likes of Brendan Haywood, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Gibert Arenas, Tony Parker, Jamal Tinsley, Dalambert and Mehmet Okur, with all but 2 of those guys going after Armstrong, let alone Twin and none of them were reaches at the time of the draft in relation to where we were picking.
Matter of fact, Armstrong was one of the reaches of a pretty stellar draft, he was a projected 2nd rounder and Rod decided to reach for him because he might have been gone by the Veal pick we made, who also went ahead of Okur. Ugh.

Did great on Lopez...although I have this feeling if Bayless ever gets his shot to really play...the kid could be an offeivnse superstar in this league....we'll see how that works out.

Only the worst type of GM such as John Hammond could have messed up the Lopez pick.
He fell to us in what may be one of the biggest draft blunders in league history when all is said and done. I don't live by mocks, but I pay attention to them. GMs always have their own ideas, but normally the top 10 picks are pretty on point with mocks, at least within a range.
Out of the more major and respected mocks such as nbadraft.net, draftexpress, Chad Ford's, Jay Bilas', etc., Lopez was going no later then 5th and was basically the 3rd or 4th pick lock after Beasley and Rose, with Brook and O.J. being the concensus 3 and 4 picks.
He was a no brainer.
Same with CDR at 40 something.
Ryan Anderson was a very good pick, but he still went in his range in a stellar, almost can't miss draft and besides he was Kiki's guy through and through.

Who else? He got Kmart right.

He couldn't mess this one up. The literal worst draft in league history, was known to be that beforehand and it was a one player draft with us having the 1st pick.

I do not fault him for Granger but I agree...draft wise he has not alway made the best of choices he has had his mistakes.

Why on granger? He dropped way off the radar because people didnt fear his talent...they feared his health. Cant fault Rod alone for that. 10 GMs let him slide for that same reason. Lets see if he can have a healthy career or if he costs Indy a ton of cash for DNP's.

I am definitely not singling Rod out for this one, but he was part of a group of about 5 to 7 GMs that made a massive mistake passing on this guy.
Although his knee concerns were certainly legitimate, his talent was undeniable and we had the 15th pick with a star studded core, but a weak supporting cast. Granger made the most sense as a low risk high reward pick.
Hell we didn't even work out Wright and he was seriously one of those obvious overhype/one year wonder guys that went from OK to big production in one year in college, but it didn't translate to wins, just to inflated stats. Anyone that knew anything about college ball and the in general ay college players translate to the NBA knew he at best would be a so-so pick as soon as his name was called. He had questionable immediate impact and low upside.

Boone and Williams were the right picks...late firsts they just didnt pan out. Actually Boone is about what I expected for a late round big. Serviceable. Marcus dropped like a stone...everyone felt we got a steal. Turns out he didnt drop just for off court reasons. he simply sucks at the NBA level.

Honestly, these were both pretty bad picks, even in real time, at least for an actual GM of an actual NBA franchise. They were more of a "fan pick".
Williams was one of my favorite college players, so when we drafted him I was excited and put my fingers in my ears and yelled, "na, na, na, na, na...." to all the negatives surrounding him, like a little kid does when his teacher or parent tells them why they shouldn't do something bad they love to.
His body fat % and athleticism, along with his length, work ethic, attitude, off the court issues and questionable character were just screaming red flags. He was one of those guys that literally every single what if, and he has to improve this, had to happen or he was a blatant fail.
Boone seemed like a pick to try and keep Williams motivated, comfortable in his surroundings and out of trouble.
There were some really solid players that went within about 10 picks of them as well.

Did great on Nenad.

Yes he did.
But what about Zoran Planinic?
What about 2 years he sold the pick for cash for no reason other then to save money and in the one year specifically the likes of Kevin Martin, Tony Allen, Delonte West and Varejao all went less then 10 picks later? All those guys were projected to be solid players too, they weren't out of nowhere suprises that late in the draft where you can give Rod the benefit of the doubt.

How bout Sean Williams?
I know it was a high risk, high reward pick and he has been said to have lottery talent, but again, you're talking about taking a kid with severe red flags. Big time character issues, off the court problems and incidents and a seriously low BBIQ.
Again, not a smart pick by actual proffesionals, especially when the team was pretty mediocre, yet a solid big man and a couple small bench pieces away from being a true contender.
Also history has religiously shown that big time character flaws and especially low BBIQ almost never result in a good or positive impact player and almost always correlate to either a complete bust, or a guy that puts up decent stats with the occasional "Wow!" show of brilliance that leads to said player recieving a horribly inflated second contract that haunts the team's cap who signed him.


You might say I'm nit picking, but I'm just a die hard fan and a B ball junkie, where as Rod Thorn is one of the highest paid and most respected in his position and eats, sleeps, craps basketball, but he has notoriously been a terrible drafter when he has a non high lotto pick, and/or a complete no brainer doesn't fall to him, ultimately making him look good when it was simply luck.

When it comes to trades, not many can trump Thorn, probably in NBA history.
He has turned nothing into a legit contender and fleeced other teams and their GMs repeatedly, producing some of the most lopsided deals ever that leave you feeling like it's a video game, and for that I respect the guy and want him in NJ for as long as he wants to remain in the NBA.
But when it comes to drafting, I think most of the time I would literally do a better job.




A lot of people say the draft is a crap shoot and to an extent it certainly is, but it is more a crap shoot because of very questionable calls by GMs that don't listen to their scouts and common sense, or their scouts suck to begin with yet they keep using them.

[enetric]

I dont think its nitpicky as much as you arent following your own logic.

You cant point to mocks and Lopez and talk about screwing it up...and not apply that to several other points you made. Bayless also dropped. Both guys were projected higher but guys drop.

Using the same logic...Granger, Graham, Wright and Gerald Green who was projected EVERYWHERE as a the #2 pick all dropped. When we picked...those 4 were all considered at that moment in the draft to be steals if you know your draft day history. Granger was the guy most talented...but he was the guy with most risk. Graham was the best athelete at the combines. Wright was regarded as the best shooter and Green had the most upside. At the time...it wasnt a terrible pick despite the fact that so many people could only see Granger's know quantity of talent and hated it. There are guys like that every year...and every year people say oh my god how can you pass on that guy...and then that guy is labled a steal on draft day. This year it sthe kid with no acl's who dropped to round 2?

Most of the time the GM's are right...but sometimes...see a Granger. And that is why...from a draft day standpoint...makes me mad when i think what a damn bust Wright was...but go back to that draft. So many guys before and after granger including Green and Graham were busts. So it was aneedle in a haystack where the best bet so far has been the guy with the most risk on draft day. So its understandable.

Now keep going....

using the same steal of a pick mentality...ditto on Marcus Williams. To call it a bad pick NOW????

On draft day we got A+ from everyone out there. You cant rave about Lopez asa no brainer based on draft boards and not aknowledge that Williams was a projected top 10 pick who dropped shockingly low and then call it a bad pick. it wasnt. The rest of that draft after those guys? There are not loads of how did you mess that up? We took the Lopez of that draft in Marcus and a safe pick in the best big on the board. it wasnt bad drafting when its in the 20's and there werent tons of no brainers around.

Sean Williams...I didnt love that pick either on draft day...but a lot of people here and then said...he would hav been a lottery pick had it not been for off court issues...so lets not forget that. he was that dropped/risk guy.

So you have to ask yourself...what do you want? Take the risk and live with the odds...or play it safe as a style. Sure...you will mix it up based on need and whats out there....but...at some point it becomes revisionist history.

I mean...you take a Korlaev without being sure he will be here you should be shot. You take a fat assed Sean May...you ger ripped by me who said...bust....but he was that draft's perceived Hansbrough...who for whatever reason had the fan love Hansbrough does not have. Wait and see. Hansbrough will be better than Sean doody May.

I will tell you....people love to talk a bout the ultimate bad pick....Bowie over MJ.

But people forget. Bowie was a college big man superstar...and while anyone taken before the greatest player was a bad pick....it was NOT like Bowie was...who??? on Draft day.

Additionally....he actually had a better career than people recall. NOT MJ GOOD...but I always felt bad that guy is remembered like he was a complete bust and the answer to a trivia question like he was Fred Weiss.


Rod could have done better. Worst draft is the RJ draft where he got credit for being a god...and in reality...he bothched the crap out of that draft.

I agree on Planinic. If I recall....that was Stefanski's call actually. He loved that guy.

[vincecarter4pres]

All very good points.

BTW, to add on Bowie, people also love to overlook the fact that hadn't it been for some horrible injuries the guy would have borderline beastly and possibly even in HOF talks.
Sure MJ is the best ever, but the Bowie pick wouldn't have looked so bad had he put up Hakeem or Ewing type impat and stats consistently over his career and injuries are the main culprit.

[enetric]

Absolutely. Bowie was a great shot blocker...had skills, had smarts for the game. But he was super slow and mechanical most of his career no doubt injury was a big issue.

Sam was also soft and that was the death blow for him with fans. But he was not a bust. He had a solid NBA career. Just not superstar good as you said...