John Hollinger's Nets Player Ratings

[kmsmith5]

DEVIN HARRIS, PG
Projection: 19.4 pts, 3.5 reb, 7.3 ast per 40 min; 16.57 PER | Player card

• Lightning quick score-first guard who can drive past any defender.
• Poor set shooter but makes 15-foot step-back jumper. Draws tons of fouls.
• Elite defender when focused but barely tried last season. Injury-prone.

Last season Harris took a major step backward in several respects, struggling with injuries and coming nowhere close to his All-Star performance of a year earlier. Let's start with the injuries, since they're the biggest concern going forward. Harris has played just 70 games once in the past five seasons, and given his slight build and how much contact he takes, one has to worry about his ability to stay on the court.

He also needs to play better when he's out there. Harris played a lot of games at half-strength and drew dramatically fewer fouls than he had a year earlier; he also shot a career low 40.3 percent from the floor. Stylistically, he tended to pound the ball searching out shots; while this might be an appropriate strategy if Bobby Simmons and Trenton Hassell are your wingmen, Harris needs to make sharper, quicker decisions this season.

Harris' shooting percentages should bounce back -- there's no way he'll shoot 49.6 percent in the basket area again -- but he also has to start trying on defense. Harris was arguably the best defender at his position while in Dallas; last season he might have been the Nets' worst. The ability is there: He's tall for the position, extremely quick and great at taking charges. Yet the Nets -- one of the worst teams ever -- allowed 6.8 points per 100 possessions more with Harris on the court.


TERRENCE WILLIAMS, SG
Projection: 15.5 pts, 7.9 reb, 5.2 ast per 40 min; 12.61 PER | Player card

• Athletic wing with wayward jumper. Can get to the rim but doesn't draw fouls.
• Excellent rebounder for size. Has strength, athleticism to be a good defender.
• Can pass and create but must make better decisions. A classic "point forward."

Williams' rookie season looked like a disaster until the final two months, when he made tremendous strides. Prior to the All-Star break, he shot 36.6 percent, but from March. 1 to the end of the season he morphed into a different player. Over those 22 games, Williams averaged 14.1 points, 7.1 boards and 5.6 assists, including a 27-13-10 triple-double against Chicago on April 9.

His full-season numbers were a mix of the great and the awful. He really can't shoot, making only 24.1 percent of his long 2s and ranking 64th out of 67 small forwards in TS percentage, and he doesn't draw fouls despite his athleticism. However, he ranked sixth at this position in rebound rate and ninth in pure point rating.

Finally, here's one more weird data point: Only three small forwards blocked fewer shots per minute than the 6-foot-6 Williams. What's up with that?


TRAVIS OUTLAW, SF
Projection: 17.4 pts, 6.6 reb, 1.8 ast per 40 min; 14.40 PER | Player card

• Long, high-jumping swingman; decent shooter who can get shot off anytime.
• Uncoordinated defender; struggles through screens but can challenge shots.
• Average ballhandler who settles for jumper too often and doesn't see floor.

Outlaw missed 57 games, mostly because of a foot injury, and it wouldn't have been a bad idea to skip the other 25 too. After a trade to the Clippers, Outlaw shot bricks (39.3 percent) and played matador defense while he waited for the free agency clock to strike midnight.

Nonetheless, his brief season offered a taster course of the same strengths and weaknesses. Outlaw is far better at creating shots than making them, but he accomplishes this without committing turnovers. These are useful skills to have with a second unit and a reason that he's far more valuable coming off the bench. He's also very good as a smallball power forward, as few 4s can hang with him off the dribble.

While $35 million is too rich for that set of skills, clearly his skills are worth something. He's only 25, but he hasn't improved over the past four seasons and was no closer to turning the corner with his play last season. With lots of minutes and shots on offer in New Jersey, this will be his best chance to prove he's more than just a bench scorer.


TROY MURPHY, PF
Projection: 16.3 pts, 11.8 reb, 2.5 ast per 40 min; 15.71 PER | Player card

• Lefty sharpshooter who loves to spot up at top of key for 3-pointers.
• Superior below-rim rebounder who gets great position. Invisible on D otherwise.
• Subpar athlete. Will shot fake and drive lane but can't finish in traffic.

OK, Murphy isn't going to make the All-Defense team. But in virtually every other respect, he's a heck of a player. Last season he ranked among the top 10 power forwards in rebound rate, pure point rating and true shooting percentage while averaging a double-double for a second straight season. That's a doozy of a combination and explains why he's a quality starter despite the porous D.

Once again, Murphy was the unquestioned master of the straight-on 3 from the top of the key. Last season he lobbed 175 shots from that range; the next closest player, Toronto's Andrea Bargnani, took 109. I would struggle to name any other category where a player had that wide a lead on second place. Since this arrangement is unique to Jim O'Brien's offense in Indiana, I'm interested to see how much Johnson borrows from the Pacers' playbook to get Murphy his favored shot.


BROOK LOPEZ, C
Projection: 20.9 pts, 10.0 reb, 2.3 ast per 40 min; 19.66 PER | Player card

• Skilled center with 18-foot range and solid low-post game. Good foul shooter.
• Good leaper when he can gather himself, but poor mobility. Mediocre rebounder.
• Has shot-blocking skill but otherwise a subpar defender due to slow feet.

Statistically Lopez had a very impressive second season, especially given the paucity of talent surrounding him. What's particularly impressive is that he combines two important skills -- he draws a lot of fouls and he shot 81.7 percent from the line. Only three centers proved more accurate from the stripe. While Lopez relied too often on his jumper -- he made only 33.2 percent of his long 2s -- a lot of those shots were under duress at the end of the shot clock.

Lopez needs a lot of work on his defense, however. He blocked a decent number of shots, partly because there were so many Nets opponents attempting layups, but his lack of mobility is a real concern. He doesn't run the floor well and his pick-and-roll coverage leaves much to be desired.


KEY RESERVES

JORDAN FARMAR, PG
Projection: 16.6 pts, 3.3 reb, 4.0 ast per 40 min; 12.80 PER | Player card

• Quick, high-leaping guard who can get to basket but doesn't see floor well.
• Average outside shooter but an unusually bad foul shooter.
• Good defender who moves feet well but vulnerable to post-ups by big guards.

Point guards in the Lakers' system aren't expected to set up teammates as often as their counterparts on other clubs. But Farmar was just ridiculous -- he placed 69th out of 71 point guards in assist ratio and 69th in pure point rating. That explains why he couldn't take Derek Fisher's job despite posting fairly decent numbers in other categories and Fisher's own freefall.

Another disappointment is that Farmar has been in the league four years and still stinks from the line -- his 67.1 percent mark was worse than every point guard's except Rajon Rondo's. While Farmar hit 37.1 percent of his 3s and made an impressive 57.3 percent of his shots in the basket area, it's hard to argue he's maximizing his talents.

He wasn't a great fit in the Lakers' system and may be much more comfortable in New Jersey. But Phil Jackson wasn't making him miss free throws. If Farmar doesn't convert a few more and start finding some teammates with his drives, his career is unlikely to gain much more traction.

ANTHONY MORROW, SG
Projection: 17.7 pts, 5.2 reb, 2.1 ast per 40 min; 13.90 PER | Player card

• Outstanding shooter who is threat from any spot on floor. Will force it.
• Will post small guards and turn over left shoulder for jumper; can make floaters.
• Limited athlete and a very poor defender. Doesn't hustle back in transition.

If Morrow isn't the best shooter in basketball, he's definitely on the short list. Through two pro seasons, he's at 46.0 precent on 3s, 87.9 percent from the line and 44.3 percent on long 2s. Unlike a lot of shooting specialists, he can create some offense for himself too. Morrow had a middle-of-the-pack usage rate and pumped in 17.8 points per 40 minutes.

That about covers the strengths; the rest of his game needs serious work. Morrow will stop the ball searching out shots and he basically needs to learn defense from the ground up -- he sure as heck wasn't taught anything with Golden State. Despite those limitations, his jumper alone should guarantee him a dozen-year career.


DERRICK FAVORS, PF
No projection | Player card

• Long-armed, high-jumping power forward is potent shot-blocker.
• Can hit midrange J and finish at rim, but offensive game lacks polish.
• Runs floor and rebounds well. Should be a quality defender.

Favors probably draws the widest range of scout comments of any rookie. Some talent evaluators think he'll be a superstar; others had a lot of questions as to why he didn't dominate more in college. The fact his college team ran so much offense through Gani Lawal rather than Favors can be taken one of two ways -- either as a sign that they knew Favors wasn't as good as the pro scouts thought, or that Favors will vastly outperform his fairly pedestrian college scoring stats.


JOHAN PETRO, C
No projection | Player card

• Reasonably athletic 7-footer with decent 15-footer and some shot-blocking skill.
• Poor rebounder for size; lacks basketball instincts at both ends.

Even though the Nuggets were desperate for frontcourt help, Petro sat at the end of the bench in Denver, playing only 436 minutes the entire season. He's only 24 and I suppose it's possible the light bulb could still turn on. However, he's made no progress in six years in the league and, well, let's just say my Google search for "Johan Petro workaholic" didn't turn up anything.


DAMION JAMES, SF
No projection | Player card

• Tough, physical forward who rebounds extremely well. Great motor.
• Has long arms and has improved rapidly as a perimeter shooter.
• A tweener who may be too small for 4. Must improve handle. Struggles from line.

James' best hope of sticking in the league is probably as a smallball 4. He rebounds extremely well for his size and shot 38.3 percent on 3s as a senior at Texas, so the potential is there. The problem is that he's undersized for the 4; he's also a poor foul shooter, calling into question those college 3-point numbers. His effort level alone is likely to keep him in the league for several years, but he'll need to hit jumpers to be a rotation player.


QUINTON ROSS, SF
Projection: 7.0 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.1 ast per 40 min; 3.92 PER | Player card

• Quick, pesky defender with wiry build. Moves feet and rarely gambles.
• Can hit midrange jumper but otherwise useless offensively. Awful rebounder.

Ross shot 36.3 percent and earned the dubious distinction of having the league's worst PER in 2009-10, so I suspect he's not long for this league. While his defense has use and he may find occasional snippets of playing time in end-of-quarter situations when the opponent has the ball, in the big picture he'd have to be an All-Defense-caliber performer to justify his anemic 6.5 points per 40 minutes. He's not in that class of defender, and it's likely he'll be bought out at some point during the season.


KRIS HUMPHRIES, PF
Projection: 15.3 pts, 11.8 reb, 1.1 ast per 40 min; 14.79 PER | Player card

• Quick, aggressive power forward. Can score but a selfish offensive player.
• Short for a 4 and struggles on D. Picks up pushing fouls trying to guard post.
• Good driver who draws fouls but struggles to finish at rim. Good rebounder.

Perhaps this vignette from Humphries' time in Dallas will offer some insight into how he thinks on the court: In an early-season game against Minnesota, Dallas teammate Jason Terry found himself isolated against Eurostiff Oleksiy Pecherov -- a total mismatch. All the other Mavs got out of the way … except for Humphries, who flashed to the low post calling for the ball.

No, Humphries doesn't totally get it. He'll break the offense to search out shots and after six years in the league, he still doesn't know to use an arm bar to defend the post. That's unfortunate because he has a lot to offer. He can run the floor and crash the boards, ranking sixth among power forwards in rebound rate and ninth in free throw attempts per field goal attempt.

Alas, he's a career 43.8 percent shooter, which is pitiful for a frontcourt player who never shoots beyond 15 feet. His poor shot selection is a major factor in that percentage, and it's those mental shortcomings that prevent him from evolving into a rotation player.


STEPHEN GRAHAM, SF
Projection: 14.4 pts, 6.2 reb, 1.3 ast per 40 min, PER 9.98 | Player card

• Thickly built wing who rebounds well for size. Subpar outside shooter.
• Can create own shot in a pinch but has no court vision.
• Mobility a weakness, especially guarding 2s. Mediocre defender overall.

No, we don't know why he started the Bobcats' first four games lat season, and we certainly don't expect that event to repeat itself. The good news for Graham, however, is he's established something of a career. He can score and rebound just enough to prove useful in spots as a fringe rotation player, with his ideal role being as a fifth wing who can fill in at either shooting guard or small forward in the case of injury or fouls. Just don't expect him to find the open man -- he was second to last among shooting guards in assist ratio.

[D Facial Favors]

Looks like hollinger is trying to win some fans over with these per40 min predictions, which if you actually break it down most of them really suck.

[ecuhus1981]

So... 50 wins?

Seriously, John offers a candid and pretty in-depth breakdown here. What's unusual is that he seems to have written this article without bias; in the past, the NJ native has come off scornful of his home team.

Doubling our '09-'10 win total should be seen as a real accomplishment.

[demens]

Not sure what Mik doesn't like about the number, on 1st look they seem pretty fantastic. I think if the guys produce like that the team will def win a good amount of games (im talking playoff contention).

[Lamak]

The descriptions he's giving sound about right but the point predictions seem wrong. Graham with 14 ppg?

[vincecarter4pres]

The descriptions he's giving sound about right but the point predictions seem wrong. Graham with 14 ppg?

It's per 40...

[Lamak]

The descriptions he's giving sound about right but the point predictions seem wrong. Graham with 14 ppg?

It's per 40...

Stupid moment.