MY Suggestion for Offseason Moves

[ecuhus1981]

1) Sign Kris Humphries for 6 years, $31.5mil ($4.5 / $4.8 / $5.1 / $5.4 / $5.7 / $6)
-- Humphries doesn't sound like he's solely interested in money, and has ingratiated himself with the coaching staff and Nets community. Also, with the saturation of free agent PFs on the market whenever the new CBA is ratified, the grass might not be greener on the other side for Kris. He stood in the gap for us last season and gave us double-double production; but most would agree that he's best suited to be a 6th/7th man extraordinaire. Hopefully, he is ready and willing to take the guaranteed money and keep his $6.4mil cap hold from limiting our capspace.

2) Sign Nene Hilario for 5 years, $60mil ($13.5 / $12.75 / $12 / $11.25 / $10.5)
-- The key here is that in order avoid a bloated payroll in the future, we need someone's contract to gradually decrease, since Deron's, Brook's and others' will be increasing. Nene, who turns 29 this September, could become an onerous contract if he's being paid north of $14mil well into his 30's. I would add performance- and team-based incentives that escalated the deal, such as an extra $500K for playing 75 games in a season, and $1mil for the Nets making the ECFs. Finally, I'd offer the concession of an early termination option (ETO) after his 3rd year. Typically, players have a much tougher time negotiating for that last big contract if they are 33 or older, compared to 32. In return, we would ask for a team option (TO) or a partially guaranteed contract after the 5th year. That way, IF he really nosedives as he progresses in age, we're not on the hook for the entire amount, and can actually use his contract as an asset via trade.

3) This 3-way trade
-- The Nets would turn their '10 FA class (Outlaw, Morrow, Farmar and Petro) into Brandon Roy, Josh Childress, Luke Babbitt and the rights to Jon Diebler. Roy and Childress, considering the size of both of their contracts, come with a risk. But one thing we know is that both are plus-rebounders for their respective position, something we'll need if Lopez and Nene are to spend 30+ minutes per night on the floor together. They could revive their careers in a new environment, and I always feel that if you're going to spend $20mil in salaries, you might as well gamble for a player who might be a game-breaker. Brandon won't ever regain his former All-Star form, but he could be a poor-man's Manu, with Deron and the twin towers around to ease the burden on his shoulders. You also get a couple of useful young shooters, one who our FO really coveted on draft night (Three-bler).

(It's important to note that this deal works under the current 25% + 100K rule, without any capspace. From what I've heard, it's safe to say that this rule will remain, if not be slightly expanded).

At the end of all of that, our lineup would look like:

Williams - Roy - Childress - Nene - Lopez
Gaines - Brooks - James - Humphries - Wright (3 years, BAE)
Uzoh - Diebler - Graham - Babbitt - Williams

I see a darkhorse contender, with no one on the roster older than 29! What do you think?

[vincecarter4pres]

I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

Oh and there's no way you're getting Hump that cheap and probably a little more for Nene.

[ecuhus1981]

I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

How so? I know you like Kris, and I don't think you hate the idea of ponying up for Nene, either. If I had to guess, your regurgitation is related to part 3, but if I'm mistaken, please clarify.

(In case I'm correct, though... you and I have history about the idea of bringing in Roy. Is that the snag? Would you do the deal with PHX's outgoing parts coming straight to us? Or do you simply prefer our FA haul? I feel as though Diebler is a bit of insurance, in case we need to treat Roy with kid gloves in order to preserve him for the postseason and the later years of his contract. I know he's a rook, but does Three-bler allay your concerns at all? I mean, we know Brooks is ready for just about as many minutes as Avery can throw his way, but I feel that Roy would fit a little better in the starting lineup. And I feel that Roy is about the best way we can salvage the OutLOL signing.)

Oh and there's no way you're getting Hump that cheap and probably a little more for Nene.

I really don't think that my salary guesstimate for Nene is far off. Hump could probably get MLE offers elsewhere, maybe something like 5 years, $44mil if he's fortunate. But keep in mind, the supply of higher-end PF talent will outpace the demand, and these FA PFs will all receive consideration before Hump:

-- David West
-- Kenyon Martin
-- Carl Landry
-- Glen Davis (watch him get PAID)

Also, while guys like Nene, Tyson Chandler, DeAndre Jordan, Andrei Kirilenko, Thaddeus Young, Wilson Chandler and Jeff Green are not traditional PFs, they too will receive interest from teams to fill that position, in either an uptempo role or a twin towers lineup. You'd be surprised how little consideration Humphries is getting from other teams' fanbases for his double-double season. I wouldn't be bit surprised to see him on the outside looking in during the free agent frenzy.

[vincecarter4pres]

1) Yes, the main part of throwing up is cause of Roy.

2) I am not very fond of spending the cap at all, but if we do, I am all aboard the Nene train.

3) I am very skeptical of Hump in general.

4) There isn't a higher end power forward available outside Nene.

West is coming off a MAJOR injury on the wrong side of 30.
Martin is old as dirt and ALWAYS injured.
Landry is meh as hell.
Glen Davis is fat.

Hump is going to be a hot commodity this year.

If Drew Gooden got what he got, I expect someone to give Hump between 40 and 50 for 5 years, I fully hope it's not us.

60 for 5 is the low end for Nene IMHO, I see more like 70 for 5.

[ecuhus1981]

1) Alright, but wouldn't you rather have him than TrOut, Petro and Farmar?

2) Good. Choo-choo!

3) To quote you, "que?"

4) "Hot commodity?" Agree to disagree. Do this for me: figure out how many teams you think are in the market any have the financial means to offer above the MLE for a PF this offseason. Some teams have capspace, but aren't looking at adding a FA bigman. Other teams may have a need, but are at or near the lux tax and are too financially limited to make that sort of investment. THEN, go the the Player Comparisons Board, and ask everyone to rank the top bigmen of this FA class. Here, I'll even give you a list:

Tyson Chandler
Wilson Chandler ®
Samuel Dalembert
Glen Davis
Marc Gasol ®
Jeff Green ®
Spencer Hawes ®
Nene Hilario
Kris Humphries
Yi Jianlian ®
DeAndre Jordan ®
Andrei Kirilenko
Kenyon Martin
Troy Murphy
Carl Landry
Greg Oden ®
Joel Pryzbilla
David West
Thaddeus Young ®

Report the results back to this thread; I think they will suffice to support my argument and help you see my POV. Thanks.

[SpeedyG]

1) Alright, but wouldn't you rather have him than TrOut, Petro and Farmar?

2) Good. Choo-choo!

3) To quote you, "que?"

4) "Hot commodity?" Agree to disagree. Do this for me: figure out how many teams you think are in the market any have the financial means to offer above the MLE for a PF this offseason. Some teams have capspace, but aren't looking at adding a FA bigman. Other teams may have a need, but are at or near the lux tax and are too financially limited to make that sort of investment. THEN, go the the Player Comparisons Board, and ask everyone to rank the top bigmen of this FA class. Here, I'll even give you a list:

Tyson Chandler
Wilson Chandler ®
Samuel Dalembert
Glen Davis
Marc Gasol ®
Jeff Green ®
Spencer Hawes ®
Nene Hilario
Kris Humphries
Yi Jianlian ®
DeAndre Jordan ®
Andrei Kirilenko
Kenyon Martin
Troy Murphy
Carl Landry
Greg Oden ®
Joel Pryzbilla
David West
Thaddeus Young ®

Report the results back to this thread; I think they will suffice to support my argument and help you see my POV. Thanks.

There's only one problem on your list...there's no distinction between Restricted and Unrestricted. You have to treat those two as separate pools...and most will not touch a Restricted unless they know the parent team don't want the guy back (or won't pay for him if they overpay).

Also, Chandler and Young are pretty much SF/PF, and are completely different type of players than Hump, so they are not "competition". For money, yes, but for that PF role? No, they are not.

So you are pretty much left with the same list that VC brought up, plus a few older guys (like Pryz) who won't merit anywhere close to Hump's value.

[Preludepunk27]

Hey I looooove Brandon Roy, but 2 things will happen with him due to his knees:

1. He'll retire within the next 3 seasons

2. If he makes it that long, he'll be a shell of himself rotational player

In any case, he won't be worth his contract. Every report about his health that has come out in the last 2 years are that his knees are completely done which is a shame for a guy that young.

Because of that, you will never convince me to spend $50 million on this guy over the next 3 years praying his knees can hold up. It pains me to say this, but I'd rather pay the $35 million we have committed to Outlaw/Petro over the next 4 seasons than take the gamble on Roy.

If we were to take the gamble too, the deal is Outlaw/Petro/Graham/#2 for Roy/Protected #1. Yes is that not fair? It depends how you look at it to be honest. No on paper it's not fair, but Portland is actually saving $15 million on the deal. I'm not going to gift them Anthony Morrow to be their clutch 3 point specialist when we don't even know how long Roy can still play. Roy has literally no value right now which is sad cause he was awesome. But $20 bucks this guy never plays more than 50 games a season for the rest of his career. If he does, he'll just be a 15-25mpg off the bench guy.

[vincecarter4pres]

1) Alright, but wouldn't you rather have him than TrOut, Petro and Farmar?

Nope.

Farmar and Petro are dumpable or usable as salary filler in a bigger trade even if they are neutral and slightly negative value on their own respectably.

2) Good. Choo-choo!

Yes, I would rather keep the cap and go for overpaid vets on expiring contracts, make the playoffs this year and make a huge push for a stud in 2012, but if our FO is set on blowing the cap, there isn't a better option available then Nene.

IMHO, Nene is vastly underrated in general and goes way beyond his raw #'s.

I would take him over Boozer and Horford straight up for example.

There really isn't a FA out there even worth the cap at all besides him and Chandler, which is both a testament to how weak this class is and how good Nene and Tyson are.

3) To quote you, "que?"

I am skeptical of the Hump.

I feel like he's a slightly above average rotation player and a borderline starter, but how can you not be cautious of a guy who blows up in his 7th year in the most important contract year of his career when he would like nothing else than to stay in NYC?

The dude is a career 5.6 and 4.7 guy. That includes last year making a heavy positive dent in his averages!

He is a very good rebounder, but the elite level thing is wrong IMHO, you have to look at the full context and situation of his stats, both raw and advanced.

Stats taken out of context are worthless.

Guys in his position almost always regress after they sign their big contract and that is fact.

It doesn't mean he definitely will, but history points to that.

And IMHO, yes he will command a large contract.

4) "Hot commodity?" Agree to disagree. Do this for me: figure out how many teams you think are in the market any have the financial means to offer above the MLE for a PF this offseason. Some teams have capspace, but aren't looking at adding a FA bigman. Other teams may have a need, but are at or near the lux tax and are too financially limited to make that sort of investment. THEN, go the the Player Comparisons Board, and ask everyone to rank the top bigmen of this FA class. Here, I'll even give you a list:

Tyson Chandler
Wilson Chandler ®
Samuel Dalembert
Glen Davis
Marc Gasol ®
Jeff Green ®
Spencer Hawes ®
Nene Hilario
Kris Humphries
Yi Jianlian ®
DeAndre Jordan ®
Andrei Kirilenko
Kenyon Martin
Troy Murphy
Carl Landry
Greg Oden ®
Joel Pryzbilla
David West
Thaddeus Young ®

Report the results back to this thread; I think they will suffice to support my argument and help you see my POV. Thanks.

That list is so exaggerated and stretched if we're talking about power forwards, a straight reach.

Wilson Chandler, Jeff Green, Thaddeus Young, AK, these guys are all basically viewed as small forwards even if I believe that to be wrong and that is how and the purpose they will be signed for.


Gasol, Oden, Pryz, Dally, Hawes, Tyson, Jordan, these guys are centers through and through.

Plus, a few are coming off major injuries.


As for the true power forwards on that list, again, you have guys that aren't competition for Hump, scrubs like Yi and Murphy, then you have a guy coming off major injury on the wrong side of 30 who baffled me by turning down his player option and then you have the big dog Nene and the awkward Landry, who is a one trick specialist who's a straight liability on defense and the boards.


As Speedy pointed out, you're also conveniently dancing around the RFA issue, which will be a major impact on the decisions of other teams in relation to who they pursue.


What you have done, is proven Hump will get at least a # of full MLE sized offers, minimum.

There is likely to be some team out there that has the cap and decides to throw a 5 year deal at him starting at 8 that ends up totaling in the high 40's.

In that case, give me Nene all day.

In fact, give me Nene period if we're wasting the cap, he's a true big time impact player and a great fit with Brook and Deron and a guy who has immediate future trade value.

Just signing the Hump kills much of our 2012 flexibility and if we continue spending the cap on depth it's a wrap.

[Pacerlive]

At the end of all of that, our lineup would look like:

Williams - Roy - Childress - Nene - Lopez
Gaines - Brooks - James - Humphries - Wright (3 years, BAE)
Uzoh - Diebler - Graham - Babbitt - Williams

I see a darkhorse contender, with no one on the roster older than 29! What do you think?

At end of the day I think this is impossible with a new CBA.

[ecuhus1981]

^

I can't go down the "Nene > Horford" road with you buddy. Boozer, absolutely. But Al has at least a very similar impact on the game to Nene (probably slightly better considering his passing), and is almost 4 years younger, without Nene's injury red flags. He's also better suited as the PF alongside Brook (better rebounder, weakside defender and fast-break guy). But beggars can't be choosers, and I'd be quite content if we signed Nene. Most of the rest of your post, though, I feel we agree.

If Kris doesn't want the kind of deal I outlined (6 years, starting around 75% of MLE), IMO he's out of our price range. We could sign Brandan Wright for half of that, and still would have Jordan Williams and Luke Babbitt to fill backup bigman minutes. In essence, he's a great luxury off the bench, but I refuse to sign him to a contract that will turn negative almost immediately.

It's all well and good to say abstractly that "Kirilenko ≠ Humphries ≠ Dalembert", but it's unlikely that many teams will spend capspace to land two of these guys. After all, few teams have significant '11 capspace. Sacramento, Indiana, New Jersey, Minnesota and Washington are the only teams that have at least $10mil, which is what a team would need in order to sign Hump AND another impact frontcourt player outright. I'll tell you, we are the only team among these five who need that much frontcourt help.

In lieu of beating the UFA/RFA issue to death, let's do this: give me 5 other teams who you think would offer Humphries the MLE. If we eliminate SF/PFs and C/PFs from consideration, you still have 4 pure PFs who I believe are, for better or worse, more highly regarded than Kris: West, Martin, Landry and Davis. Being a good sport, I'll even give you this handy reference (all FAs omitted):

Atlanta Hawks - Smith, Horford, Benson
Boston Celtics - Garnett, Johnson
Charlotte Bobcats - Diaw, Thomas, White
Chicago Bulls - Boozer, Gibson, Noah
Cleveland Cavaliers - Thompson, Jamison, Samuels
Dallas Mavericks - Nowitzki, Marion, Mahinmi
Denver Nuggets - Harrington, Andersen, Faried
Detroit Pistons - Villanueva, Monroe, Maxiell
Golden State Warriors - Lee, Udoh, Amundson
Houston Rockets - Scola, Patterson, Hill
Indiana Pacers - Hansbrough, Granger
LA Clippers - Griffin, Aminu, Smith
LA Lakers - Gasol, Odom, Caracter
Memphis Grizzlies - Randolph, Arthur
Miami Heat - Bosh, Haslem, Anthony
Milwaukee Bucks - Gooden, Moute, Sanders
Minnesota Timberwolves - Love, Beasley, Randolph
New Orleans Hornets -
New York Knicks - Stoudemire, Balkman
Oklahoma City Thunder - Ibaka, Collison, Mohammed
Orlando Magic - Bass, Anderson
Philadelphia Sixers - Brand, Speights, Brackins
Phoenix Suns - Morris, Frye, Warrick
Portland Blazers - Aldridge, Babbitt, Wallace
Sacramento Kings - Hickson, Thompson, Greene
San Antonio Spurs - Duncan, Bonner, Blair
Toronto Raptors - Davis, Johnson, Johnson
Utah Jazz - Millsap, Favors, Jefferson
Washington Wizards - Blatche, Vesely, Lewis

[vincecarter4pres]

In lieu of beating the UFA/RFA issue to death, let's do this: give me 5 other teams who you think would offer Humphries the MLE.

Boston
New York
Philly
Indiana
Orlando
Denver
Portland
LAL (if they trade any of their 3 big men for a wing)


I'm not saying all those teams will offer him full MLE or any offer at all, but I would almost guarantee 2 of them do.

[ecuhus1981]

In lieu of beating the UFA/RFA issue to death, let's do this: give me 5 other teams who you think would offer Humphries the MLE.

Boston
New York
Philly
Indiana
Orlando
Denver
Portland
LAL (if they trade any of their 3 big men for a wing)


I'm not saying all those teams will offer him full MLE or any offer at all, but I would almost guarantee 2 of them do.

2 is exactly the number I have, and you could stop at the first two. Boston will prefer to keep Davis (UFA) and Green (RFA); but IF Glen walks and some teams offer Green an outrageous contract that BOS won't match, I could definitely see them pursuing either Kenyon Martin or Kris.

New York won't be shy about spending the MLE this summer, but they want Tyson Chandler, or Samuel Dalembert, to allow Amar'e to play PF. Still, they could do worse than add Hump, and I think the system and the fact that he'd remain in the NYC area would appeal to him. Truthfully, NYK might be the "dark horse favorite" for him, if there is such a thing.

Philly won't add a PF, not with Collins determined to retain PF/SF Thaddeus Young. Keep in mind, they are on the hook for Brand for three more years and $51mil, not to mention quality prospects Speights and Brackins. If anything, with a sale seemingly imminent, they may try to shed salary, not add it.

Indy will either get one of Nene/West, or they will sign a cheap rebounder (Reggie Evans comes to mind) and move forward with the Hansbrough/Hibbert duo. I don't think IND views Hump as an upgrade over Psycho T, and Bird won't spend MLE+ money on a backup this summer.

ORL willing be swimming knee-deep in the luxury tax, especially after the new CBA is ratified. They are talking about letting J-Rich walk, and they already get good production out of Anderson and Bass. Not to mention they just picked up a sleeper in the draft, Justin Harper, and I heard rumors earlier this summer that Vasquez was *finally* coming over.

Denver just gave the MLE to Harrington last season, and they have bigger fish to fry in FA. Not to mention, Andersen and rook Kenneth Faried pretty much do everything Kris could in Denver, and then some.

Portland has been trying to bring in a backup PF for years, but I see Allen seeking out bench scoring, not a garbageman. Look for POR to make a play for West, Landry and Davis. Also, they have the 5th-highest payroll in the league, BEFORE you account for Oden's QO. They are more likely to trade Camby/Batum for a stud than spend MLE on Kris, IMO.

LA? They have a $91mil payroll, and are looking for a cheap, young elite bigman in return for their bigmen. They aren't making splashy FA moves this season.

If you get my drift, it's not as simple as "double-double => ginormous contract" for Humphries, especially since most teams already have a big-money PF, and most know contract-year production when they see it.

[vincecarter4pres]

I don't feel like breaking everyone of those down right now, but for Philly, Brackins and Speights are absolute hot garbage and they know it.

Brand is only signed for 2 more seasons...

For Portland, Hump is exactly what they need and more or less what they've been looking for, for years.

They could put LMA at the 5 once Camby is gone too.

Indy should view Hump as an upgrade cause he is.

And yes, the point I was making with the Knix is they are the dark horse to land him.
As much as Amar'e loathes playing center, Hump would be perfect next to him and Melo, the last thing they need is more offense.
Chandler is going to demand 8 figures and Dally is more likely for Miami IMHO.

[Pacerlive]

In lieu of beating the UFA/RFA issue to death, let's do this: give me 5 other teams who you think would offer Humphries the MLE.

Boston
New York
Philly
Indiana
Orlando
Denver
Portland
LAL (if they trade any of their 3 big men for a wing)


I'm not saying all those teams will offer him full MLE or any offer at all, but I would almost guarantee 2 of them do.

2 is exactly the number I have, and you could stop at the first two. Boston will prefer to keep Davis (UFA) and Green (RFA); but IF Glen walks and some teams offer Green an outrageous contract that BOS won't match, I could definitely see them pursuing either Kenyon Martin or Kris.

New York won't be shy about spending the MLE this summer, but they want Tyson Chandler, or Samuel Dalembert, to allow Amar'e to play PF. Still, they could do worse than add Hump, and I think the system and the fact that he'd remain in the NYC area would appeal to him. Truthfully, NYK might be the "dark horse favorite" for him, if there is such a thing.


Indy will either get one of Nene/West, or they will sign a cheap rebounder (Reggie Evans comes to mind) and move forward with the Hansbrough/Hibbert duo. I don't think IND views Hump as an upgrade over Psycho T, and Bird won't spend MLE+ money on a backup this summer.


Portland has been trying to bring in a backup PF for years, but I see Allen seeking out bench scoring, not a garbageman. Look for POR to make a play for West, Landry and Davis. Also, they have the 5th-highest payroll in the league, BEFORE you account for Oden's QO. They are more likely to trade Camby/Batum for a stud than spend MLE on Kris, IMO.

LA? They have a $91mil payroll, and are looking for a cheap, young elite bigman in return for their bigmen. They aren't making splashy FA moves this season.

If you get my drift, it's not as simple as "double-double => ginormous contract" for Humphries, especially since most teams already have a big-money PF, and most know contract-year production when they see it.

Indy would offer a tad bit more than the MLE for Humph. He may not be much of an upgrade but he has different skill set that Indy would value as a backup or starter in the future.

[vincecarter4pres]

Agreed.

Bottom line is if the CBA stays similar, Indy is going to have to spend a chunk of their cap no matter what and if they can't find a preferable trade, they're going to have to sign somebody to do it and it's better to have a Marion, Perkins, or Lowry type deal then it is to have an Outlaw or Gooden type deal on the books.

[ecuhus1981]

^

You may have an IND fan on your side, but I think the Pacers will either shell lout for a legit starter at SG and/or PF, or they will carve the MLE and use exceptions for the rest to get them to the minimum. When is the last time Indy used the MLE on one guy, anyway?

[Pacerlive]

^

You may have an IND fan on your side, but I think the Pacers will either shell lout for a legit starter at SG and/or PF, or they will carve the MLE and use exceptions for the rest to get them to the minimum. When is the last time Indy used the MLE on one guy, anyway?

You have to be over the cap to use the MLE and currently Indy has 36 mill on the payroll for next year. We can sign pretty much any FA to a deal if they want to play in Indy.

The Pacers won't use a lot of money for a sg because they traded for George Hill and they have to resign him next year anyway. Bird loves Hill and although he is better suited to be a 6th man pg/sg Bird also believes in Paul George and getting him minutes. They won't sign a sg this offseason.

Our sg lineup is: Paul George, George Hill, Lance Stephenson, Djones. ITs pretty clear we won't sign a sg this offseason unless a trade sends out a wing.

As far as pf situation I think its 40% chance that we go after Humph this offseason. The pacers were interested in Dwest before the injury but if the lockout drags on then he should be healed up.

PF rank would be Nene, Dwest, Hump 3a, Landry 3b, Hayes. I wouldn't rule out a trade but I think its highly unlikely.

[Pacerlive]

^

You may have an IND fan on your side, but I think the Pacers will either shell lout for a legit starter at SG and/or PF, or they will carve the MLE and use exceptions for the rest to get them to the minimum. When is the last time Indy used the MLE on one guy, anyway?

You have to be over the cap to use the MLE and currently Indy has 36 mill on the payroll for next year. We can sign pretty much any FA to a deal if they want to play in Indy.

The Pacers won't use a lot of money for a sg because they traded for George Hill and they have to resign him next year anyway. Bird loves Hill and although he is better suited to be a 6th man pg/sg Bird also believes in Paul George and getting him minutes. They won't sign a sg this offseason.

As far as pf situation I think its 40% chance that we go after Humph this offseason. The pacers were interested in Dwest before the injury but if the lockout drags on then he should be healed up.

PF rank would be Nene, Dwest, Hump 3a, Landry 3b, Hayes. I wouldn't rule out a trade but I think its highly unlikely.

Edit: To answer your question I think the last guy was Jasikaviscus (sp) and it wasn't a full MLE. The owner will spend though if a winning product is on the floor. We went well into the LT in earlier 2000's.

[AntwanBoldin]

Im so bummed that they want Hump just b/c hes a reality star and Kim goes to games.