Hello Brooklyn wrote:enetric wrote:Hello Brooklyn...
Winning a playoff series or how hard it is to beat someone in a playoff series isnt just about talent or who is better. Its also about match up. The Grizz beat a hobbled Thunder. The Spurs beat the Grizz. But a healthy Thunder....I believe beats the Spurs. And then you come down to...so who is a tougher matchup in a finals series for the Heat? The flawless execution of the Spurs or the youth and better talent of the Thunder?
I think the Spurs are the tougher matchup for the poor executing Heat while as I said...I think the Thunder are better.
Flash forward to next season. I agree...Wade is declining. Westbrook IF he makes a full recovery (see Rose missing the entire year) the Thunder should be right back in the mix.
But in your post you missed speaking to one very critical issue when comparing the Thunder in the finals to the Heat. That Thunder team that got mushed by the Heat? Well...they had a third superstar. James Harden. Even in an optimal world for them...where Westbrook is as good as new and Wade continues to decline...can they really replace another monster elite go to offensive weapon like that?
Right now, I agree with you...I dont see anyone in the East as a major threat. I think too much time off made the Heat a bit slow out of the gate against Indy. I think they would have swept us and the Knicks...max 5 games with how each looked in the playoffs. A healthy Bulls with a 100% Rose...is their biggest threat not just in talent but better execution that the rest of the top EC teams.
I agree with VC...LA and Houston are the wild card upside teams here. Although I have my doubts about just how good De-wight really is. Always have. Great defensive player. But can he be an offensive go to superstar with all he doesnt do well? Hey, Shaq goes too far but not all his points are wrong. At least I dont think so as that I have been raising some of the same concerns for years.
Heat are not unbeatable but to me its only because they have yet to decide they are. Another good exception signing or two...and tweak some execution issues...its going to be hard to see anyone actually beating them.
I agree with most of your points.
I am of the mind set, that James Harden was no super star on the Thunder. Yes he was a great player, but not on that Thunder team.
I don't see his 17 PPG as being critical to the Thunder's success. In fact, I would go as far as to say that Kevin Martin does the same basic thing he does in that role.
They do not need to prove they can replicate the success of the 12 team. In fact until Westbrook went down, they already did.
Everyone seems to forget how good the Thunder were this year. The had the BEST record in the Western conference over the Spurs this year. They to me were clearly the better team overall and were better than last year. After all, they won more games than last year and captured the top seed which they could not do last year.
If Westbrook does not go down, I see the Thunder giving a challenge to the Miami Heat in the finals. Probably going 6 or 7 games also. Mainly because Durant would not get man handled by Durant again.
I don't see the Bulls team as a threat even with their execution, because Chicago does not have enough talent to beat them. Yes they can do that with a team like us, who plays without any passion. But even with a healthy Rose, the Bulls do not even have one consistent scorer outside of Rose. You shut down Rose and you kill the Bulls.
I don't see either of those teams beating the Heat either. The Lakers are a complete mess, with no direction. The Rockets are a good team, but do I see them better than say the Spurs or Thunder? Absolutely not.
Only third team I see coming out of the West is the Clippers. That team is dripping with talent. They need a proper coach, it honestly baffling how bad Del Negro was. And they need someone like KG to pair next to Blake to bring him more toughness.
I also agree that the Heat are not unbeatable. These are not MJ's Bulls coming off a 72 win season and not going past 6 games with anyone. This team went to 7 games twice and probably should have lost the Finals in Game 6. They did win, but just barely. That is not going to happen again next year. They are going to have to win off of execution and talent not prayer 3s by Ray Allen.
I think Harden was pretty special for that Thunder team. But I dont know that just citing points off the bench is the best way to sum this up. The threat he gave them was to have another go to self creating stud of a player. Bench, starting, closing games...or replacing one of the other fallen injured stars. The guy was a major advantage over the entire league and they gave him for a few mil in contract talks. Kevin Martin? He can score but he is not anywhere near what Harden was last season or what Harden represented in a potential future match up with the Heat. Instead of comparing him the Martin who btw sucked for the last 50-75% of this season IMO....but to compare him with Bosh as the #3 guy on a championship team. Can you tell me he brought less to the table last season than Bosh has for the Heat in their system as a #3 guy? And then...Ibaka a #4 with how he has evolved...anyone close on the Heat?
Look, I think the Thunder with a 100% Westbrook...and that's an assumption right now...ARE the best team in the West. But no way are they as big a threat to the Heat as they would be with Harden still on that team. Those guys were still developing and were already damn good. Taking their lumps last season to the Heat...I believe had they kept intact and been healthy...they would have been a tougher out this season than they were last season. Durant, Westbrook, Harden and Ibaka...all were better players this season than last. I dont think its honest not to admit...as good as they are...would have been WAY more impressive for the next 5 years had they retained Harden. And like you said...if Westbrook hadnt gone down.... well, add OR if they had Harden their to step up in his spot.
As for the Rockets and Lakers...the X factor comments about them from VC I assume were tied to a healthy 100% De-wight. I agree...still long shots either makes a major threat next season.
Bulls, I think the Heat beat them. But like the Spurs they play D and they EXECUTE at a high level. That plus the one go to superstar is why they are a tougher matchup against the Heat than other Western teams. And as for having more than one consistent scorer...How many do the Spurs have? Not in the playoffs...and not during the season.
And my last thought to you is...
I think CP3 is the third best player in the NBA. I think Blake Griffin while very good...is the #1 most over rated player in the game right now. He is better for video games and Sportscenter than he is at understanding how to win games. Its not just toughness. Its BBIQ. And I think they have several players with some good skill sets...but overall most of them have serious flaws.
I think the Clippers need MORE than a KG to get to the next level in the Western conference. Much of what they need can come from within if the reality of Blake Griffin ever matches illusion of Blake Griffin.