For the Knicks, the 2012-13 season will go down as the year that the organization fully embraced the Carmelo Anthony experience.
That meant moving on from Amar'e Stoudemire, the broken pillar of the post-Isiah Knicks. It also meant surrounding Anthony with an onslaught of 3-point sharpshooters who can afford their star gobs of space. And perhaps most important, it meant Anthony would have to submit to becoming a power forward full time.
That last item might have been the toughest sell, but it produced a scoring title for Anthony and the Knicks' best season in over a decade. Anthony's new groove opened up the offense and allowed him to move to his more natural defensive position on the block. The Bockers won 54 games with the new formation, more than any Eastern Conference team north of South Beach and the franchise's most since 1996-97. Though they lost in the East semifinals, Anthony led the Knicks to their first playoff series victory since 2000 -- the same year Knicks big man Kenyon Martin was drafted No. 1 overall.
INSIDER'S TEAM FORECASTS
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But here's the thing: Even after all that success last season, it seems the Knicks already may be pulling the plug on the "Melo at the 4" experiment.
And there are 68 million reasons why. That's the total sum of salary owed to Stoudemire and the newly-acquired Andrea Bargnani over the next two seasons (both have player options for 2014-15 that they almost certainly will exercise). Stoudemire and Bargnani's most logical position can be found at the 4, the same position where Anthony thrived last season.
There may be a blessing in disguise for the Knicks as Stoudemire and Bargnani represent two of the most injury-prone players around. But the same can't be said for Tyson Chandler, however. The Knicks can't afford another injury-riddled season for Chandler, who looked nothing like the 2011-12 Defensive Player of the Year after he suffered a bulging disk in his neck last season. Without Chandler, the Knicks lose their backbone.
The questions surrounding the Knicks' scrambled frontcourt wouldn't be so pressing if the rest of the Eastern Conference elite hadn't loaded up in the offseason. But the Bulls will have Derrick Rose and Luol Deng back as well as sharpshooter Mike Dunleavy; the Nets added Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Andrei Kirilenko to strengthen their defense; the Indiana Pacers' youthful core will be entering their prime alongside reserve ringer Luis Scola; the Miami Heat still have LeBron Raymone James.
How far can Carmelo Anthony take the Knicks? And are they willing to find out?
OFFSEASON MOVES
Andrea Bargnani
The Knicks had two main priorities this past offseason: get healthier and improve the defense. And it's an open question whether they addressed either of them.
The Knicks could use an infusion of youth, but as a capped-out franchise, they had limited means to find some fresh legs. And to that end, the Knicks didn't get off on the right foot.
With few options at their disposal, the Knicks re-signed Smith, their scoring supersub and reigning Sixth Man of the Year, to a three-year deal worth $18 million even though they knew he was damaged goods. Opting against surgery in March, Smith underwent two surgeries in the offseason to fix a tear in his lateral meniscus and a patellar tendon of his left knee. The early timetable indicated that it would take 12 to 16 weeks for Smith to recover and the Knicks' season opener on Oct. 30 falls 15 weeks away from the June 15 operation date. Needless to say, it's questionable whether he'll be ready to roll by then. And he's already suspended for the first five games of the season after violating the league's substance abuse policy.
Considering the capped-out Knicks had their hands tied and could only use Bird Rights to re-sign Smith, the deal is a reasonable one. For perspective, fellow shot creators such as O.J. Mayo and Monta Ellis hit the market and each received at least $8 million annually over three years, more than twice as much as the Knicks could offer them without Bird Rights. There's a strong chance that Smith loses some of his incredible athleticism after major knee surgery, but the Knicks have little choice but to gamble on the upside.
Still needing a health boost and defensive upgrade, the Knicks then traded for Bargnani, which is like going to the store for a gallon of milk and coming back with a bag of mulch. Bargnani offers nothing of what the Knicks need and everything they should avoid. He's an injury-prone big man who doesn't play defense and creates loads of terrible shots. Bargnani shot 39.9 percent from the floor last season, including 30.9 percent from downtown. He's growing increasingly terrified of contact as his free-throw rate was sliced in half compared to 2011-12 and his rebounding rate plummeted to just 4.6 boards per 36 minutes, which is pathetic for a 7-footer.
And that's before we talk about what they gave up to get Bargnani. Toronto general manager Masai Ujiri managed to pry a 2016 first-round pick from the Knicks, two future second-round picks and Steve Novak, perhaps the league's best shooting specialist, for Bargnani, who was considered an amnesty candidate this summer. To make the salary work, the Raptors agreed to take on Quentin Richardson and Marcus Camby's contracts, who both have since been bought out. The Knicks owe Bargnani $23 million over the next two seasons, which, for the Knicks, isn't as much of a concern as the assets they gave up. If Knicks fans don't think a first-round pick is a big deal, I present to you Iman Shumpert.
On the periphery, the Knicks did well by scooping up amnesty casualty Metta World Peace and reeling in Beno Udrih to come off the bench alongside Pablo Prigioni. World Peace is no longer an all-world defender, but if he can stay healthy (a big if at his age), he becomes their best option to guard tough 3s and 4s. Udrih remains a midrange assassin and a steady point guard for the Knicks. Capping off an impressive trip through the bargain bin for the Knicks, Prigioni and Martin will be brought back on veteran minimum deals. However, the dubious Bargnani trade mitigates almost all of the positive work they did there.
2013-14 OUTLOOK
Knicks
Yes, the Brooklyn Nets may have compromised their future by unloading all their available picks to acquire Garnett, Pierce and Jason Terry, but at least the Nets filled glaring needs. You can't say the same at all for the Knicks in the Bargnani deal. SCHOENE projects Bargnani's value to be barely above replacement level next season, which means his on-court contributions should be no better than the 10th man on the bench. However, given how much the Knicks gave up for Bargnani, it's likely he'll be more like the team's seventh man, moving Anthony to the 3, where he's less effective.
Ultimately, the Knicks needed to make big gains on the defensive end, but they did little to address that weakness. The Knicks finished tied for 16th last season on defense and it's not clear how they plan to improve that ranking next season. With the addition of the defenseless Bargnani, SCHOENE sees the Knicks falling to 18th on that end of the floor.
And holy regression to the mean does SCHOENE think the Knicks offense last season was a fluke. With Bargnani in the fold, the Knicks are slated to plummet from third to 20th in offensive rating. Yes, 20th.
FELTON'S 2013-14 PROJECTIONS
Projected Offensive Rating: 107.2 (20th)
Projected Defensive Rating: 108.4 (18th)
Effective (weighted) age: 30.4 (5th)
Surprised? Don't be.
For one, the Knicks are losing two elite 3-point shooters in Novak and Copeland, and replacing them with Bargnani and World Peace, who are barely average in that category. SCHOENE envisions a much more congested Knicks offense that struggles to integrate Stoudemire and Bargnani. Along those lines, the spacious Knicks were the least turnover-prone team in the league last season, but SCHOENE expects them to cough up the ball at a league-average rate next season as Udrih and Prigioni creep later into their 30s.
Even if you think the Knicks treaded water with their moves in a vacuum, the real world doesn't work that way. There are only so many wins to go around with the Bulls, Nets, Pacers, Pistons and Cavaliers expected to make big strides next season.
So where does that leave the Knicks? At 37-45, SCHOENE says. Yikes. Still, that should be good for a seventh seed in the top-heavy Eastern Conference, but hardly the encore that Knicks fans were hoping for.
Which brings us to Felton's take this offseason when he found out that ESPN Forecast picked the Knicks to finish fifth in the East next year, which, mind you, is rosier than SCHOENE's projection.
"I'm like,'How can y'all even say this?'" Felton told ESPNNewYork.com.
But a funny thing happened after his incredulous question. Felton ran through what the rest of the Eastern Conference did this offseason and then came to the conclusion that the competition will be much stiffer next season.
"It's like everybody's getting better, man," Felton said. "You can't come in and be like, 'This is a for sure win.'"
As the saying goes, if you're not getting better, you're getting worse. That saying rings particularly true for the Knicks ahead of their 2013-14 season.
SCHOENE Projection: 37-45, 2nd in Atlantic, 7th in Eastern Conference - See more at: viewtopic.php?f=24&t=1277887#sthash.bRAtIye3.dpuf
has them winning 37 games, but getting the 7th seed.
didnt they have us for 60+ wins? lol knicks fans are gonna be salty as hell when they read that
