The Porzingis Play: Smokescreen or Legit?

[ecuhus1981]

I know that we have an offseason moves thread, but I feel that this topic needs a thread unto itself.

Earlier this week, various news outlets reports that our front office is "very high" on Kristaps Porzingis. He'sa freak of nature, and would look amazing in our system. Even coming off of surgery, he's the best young big FA available, so I think it's a credible stance.

The bigger intrigue is how it seems we are looking to force NYK's hand. KP's cap hold will be $17mil, but his max extension starting salary will be more like $27mil. The Knicks have about $24mil in capspace next summer, including Noah's stretched buyout and their 2019 1st-round pick's salary. They will be looking to sign a big-time FA with that money. BUT, if someone like us gets KP to sign a max offer sheet, and the Knicks match, they would only have $14mil left in capspace. They likely won't have time to get a commitment from another big-time FA before having to decide on KP, if we get him to sign the offer sheet early. In fact, the prospect of losing Porzingis would probably prevent other FA's from wanting to come to NYK.

Of course, the real hardball comes with giving Kristaps something that the Knicks may not want to give: guaranteed, front-loaded money, and a trade kicker. The risk is that his ACL injury hampers his career forever.

I can't tell you how excited I am at the prospect of this whole situation. Best case scenario, we pry a possible future HoFer from our rivals. Worst case scenario, we probably spoil their efforts to land an elite FA superstar. What do you make of all of this?

[DeRoma]

Dude... They can go over their cap with zingy. There is no way in hell NYK let him go.

[TheNetsFan]

It's a Bondy troll job. Nothing more. Knicks will match any offer.

[SpeedyG]

Yeah I can't imagine the Knicks letting KP go, no matter how bitter the offer is that we make. Keep in mind it also ties our cap, so unless we know for sure we are striking out with other FAs, we aren't going to touch KP's RFA status.

Now of we strike out with UFAs and somehow KP is still sitting there?

Sure. Go ahead and make that offer the most aggressive "you're gonna take it and you're gonna love it" offer humanely possible.

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[MrDollarBills]

Bondy is a joke.

KP is a restricted free agent. The Knicks aren't some small market team in west bumble ****, they will match any offer made to him tens times over. Sean Marks would look foolish even trying it. This is a non story, period.

[ecuhus1981]

Yes, of course the Knicks can match, Porzingis is a restricted FA. The point is the timing, and for that you need the player's agreement.

If NYK match before they have a chance to sign another max FA, if we FORCE them to decide with an early signed offer sheet, they will essentially kill their ability to sign a max FA after re-signing him. If we do nothing else in FA, we will have won the summer with this move, rather than watching New York pair KP and their youngsters with Durant, Leonard or another superstar.

Bondy is a... creative writer, sure. But this one feels alot like our front office. Look at the moves we made to force other teams' hands in FA, like Miami (Tyler Johnson), Portland (Crabbe, then we let them off the hook...), and Washington (Porter). I believe we will do so again, this time could be our FO's magnum opus.

[ecuhus1981]

I should also mention, this is more than just a shrewd, Machiavellian move. I would actually be happier with getting Porzingis than any other FA this summer. His age and NBA mileage are less than any other elite FA; that's extremely intriguing to pair with a young core. I'm willing to roll the dice on a full recovery from his KP's ACL surgery, given the right amount of time to heal. Also, Kristaps' max number of $27mil/yr is way more palatable than a 4-year deal for Kemba starting @ $33mil/yr, or Kevin starting @ $39mil/year.

To be clear: I would be OVER THE MOON if we signed Durant or Leonard this summer, and I'd be pretty stoked for Kyrie, Klay, Kemba, Jimmy, Kris, Tobias and a couple of others. But landing Porzingis would shift he NBA landscape in our favor, and widen our contending window like no other player we can acquire for free.

[TheNetsFan]

Yes, of course the Knicks can match, Porzingis is a restricted FA. The point is the timing, and for that you need the player's agreement.

If NYK match before they have a chance to sign another max FA, if we FORCE them to decide with an early signed offer sheet, they will essentially kill their ability to sign a max FA after re-signing him. If we do nothing else in FA, we will have won the summer with this move, rather than watching New York pair KP and their youngsters with Durant, Leonard or another superstar.

Bondy is a... creative writer, sure. But this one feels alot like our front office. Look at the moves we made to force other teams' hands in FA, like Miami (Tyler Johnson), Portland (Crabbe, then we let them off the hook...), and Washington (Porter). I believe we will do so again, this time could be our FO's magnum opus.

Nobody drags out FA anymore. All of the top players decide where they're going before the moratorium ends.

[ecuhus1981]

Nobody drags out FA anymore. All of the top players decide where they're going before the moratorium ends.

Fair point, you are arguing a one-year pattern. 2018 FA wrapped up fairly quickly, but before that it's stretched on for weeks.

Neither of us can say for certain how 2019 FA will go, but I will offer this as a counter-argument: free agency is a case of musical chairs. Last summer, players were scrambling to find chairs, because very few teams had money to make big signings. This year, the amount of elite FAs available is higher, BUT the amount of teams with max capspace outpaces the number of players worthy of them. I think we will see something similar to 2015, where big-time players take their time because they'll have the pick of many available destinations. And teams that lose out on the big ones will shell out higher-than-normal salary for 2nd- and 3rd-tier role-players. This will take time, probably past July 20th.