The Official Lin Net Thread

[Prokorov]

too much focus on lin/kemba/sessions

there is an enormous gap between their wings and ours. enormous. even factoring in injurie + optomistic improvement from our guys.

[Kswiss]

too much focus on lin/kemba/sessions

there is an enormous gap between their wings and ours. enormous. even factoring in injurie + optomistic improvement from our guys.

True if we assume Batum is a good player. Otherwise RHJ is literally almost the same player as MKG and Lin is a better PG than Kemba. So basically it's Batum vs. Bogdonovic and I think they are actually way closer than their reputations indicate. One could argue Batum's defensive impact is almost as bad as Bogs because Bogs is a known liability so we adjust for that. Batum gets torched constantly but rarely got liability treatment in defensive planning which actually does more damage than just owning the fact that he can't play defense. To be fair, I actually thought young Batum was a decent defender but he is way on the downside of his physical prime thanks to bad injury luck and a brittle body which have robbed him of any quickness and verticality he used to have. Bogdonovic is also the better shooter and scorer/finisher, and much less turnover prone. Batum is a good rebounder for his position due to his length so that's his main edge over Bogs

P.S. I know it probably sounds like I strongly dislike Batum, but I really don't. When he came to Charlotte I wanted to believe the hype and cheer for him but unfortunately I've just watched too much of his game and seen him come up short one too many times. I had a bet with my brother about the Hornets win success so we would watch games together when we could and I kept trying to convince him that Batum was good (he told me he was overhyped), but as I kept watching games I just couldn't do it lol

[LostInACrowd]

PER is not positively effected by volume. if anything, its more impressive to keep high efficiency even with increased volume

That is incorrect. If you have two players that shoot with the same efficiency, but one player takes more shots than the other, the one with the higher volume will have higher PER, even if the efficiency is low. So again, as I said earlier, PER rewards volume shooting.

This is not an original point that I'm making. It's been long established since the Berri-Hollinger discussion.
http://wagesofwins.com/2006/11/24/john-hollinger-responds/

it only rewards volume with all things being equal... and it should. if 2 guys shoot the same perecentage but one guy is able to keep those high perentages on icnreased volume that is more impressive

That's actually wrong. It rewards any extra shots inside the 3, that are above 30.4%. With the rewards increasing with increased percentages. With the avg. for nba players around 48% from inside the 3, every nba player can increase their PER by increasing their volume.

Let's say 1 guy avgs. 10 shots at 50% +PER 4.12
Second guy avgs. 20 shots at 45%. +6.93

[spaceballer]

JLin spending time with kids from SF City Impact charity.

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

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[akainorei]

Jeremy Lin as special guest in Jay Chou's new MV "Turkish Ice Cream"

BTW, heads up, turn off your speaker if you, like me, can't stand recent Jay Chou's music at all...

Watch on YouTube

[Prokorov]

True if we assume Batum is a good player.

I dont think this is an assumption, he is certainly a good player.

Otherwise RHJ is literally almost the same player as MKG

to me this is lazy. MKG has a broken jumper, but he is still far beyond RHJ when it comes to offensive skillset. MKG can handle the ball and use both sides of the floor. RHJ completely lacks some basic basketball fundamentals. its not like he just needs a shot. MKG has a high bbiq, he can pass, he can lead the break, he can do some thing in the half court.

and Lin is a better PG than Kemba. So basically it's Batum vs. Bogdonovic and I think they are actually way closer than their reputations indicate.

i dont think its close. Bogs is a D tier player and one of the worst defensive players in the entire league (statistically, not hyperbole)

calling Lin better them kemba is a tough sell, even in the Lin thread.

Batum >>>>>>>>>>>>>> bogs
MKG > RHJ
Kemba vs. Lin is at least a wash

at the very least Kemba,Batum, and MKG are proven, legit NBA starters. cant say that about any of the nets guys other then maybe lin

[yosemiteben]

Popping in this thread just to point out a couple things.

(1) I don't think Lin fans have a real idea of how impactful MKG is on both ends of the floor, because he only played 7 games last season. They didn't see him enough to get a full appreciation of how much value he brings. By the same token, all I know about RHJ is POR traded him and he's supposed to play good defense, I haven't watched him other than when CHA has played BRK (as I suspect is true for some Lin fans equating him with MKG). I do however have a very hard time believing he is already at MKG's level defensively, given that he has only played a total of 29 games in the NBA.

(2) Some Lin fans may think last year was an aberration for the Hornets, but in the 2013-14 season (Clifford's first year as coach) we had 43 wins with a much more limited roster. The following season we endured a total flop in picking up Lance which derailed the start of our season, Marv underperformed as our new starting PF, and then we also had extended injuries to Kemba, Al, Cody, Biz, and MKG. Pointing to that season as evidence of what should be our expected performance doesn't seem reasonable IMO, it was that 2014-15 season that is more of the aberration.

Carry on.

[Roy Tarpley]

Popping in this thread just to point out a couple things.

(1) I don't think Lin fans have a real idea of how impactful MKG is on both ends of the floor, because he only played 7 games last season. They didn't see him enough to get a full appreciation of how much value he brings. By the same token, all I know about RHJ is POR traded him and he's supposed to play good defense, I haven't watched him other than when CHA has played BRK (as I suspect is true for some Lin fans equating him with MKG). I do however have a very hard time believing he is already at MKG's level defensively, given that he has only played a total of 29 games in the NBA.

(2) Some Lin fans may think last year was an aberration for the Hornets, but in the 2013-14 season (Clifford's first year as coach) we had 43 wins with a much more limited roster. The following season we endured a total flop in picking up Lance which derailed the start of our season, Marv underperformed as our new starting PF, and then we also had extended injuries to Kemba, Al, Cody, Biz, and MKG. Pointing to that season as evidence of what should be our expected performance doesn't seem reasonable IMO, it was that 2014-15 season that is more of the aberration.

Carry on.

(1) RHJ and MKG have a lot in common, not least of which is the hyphenated last names! And they're both 6' 7".

But seriously, their per 36 offensive stats are eerily similar.

RHJ 3.7FG 8.1 FGA .457FG% .286 3PT% .712 FT% 9.0 REB 2.5 AST 2.3 STL 0.9 BLK 1.5 TO 3.6 PF 9.8 PTS
MKG 4.8FG 10.2FGA .467FG% .240 3PT% .689 FT% 8.4 REB 1.7 AST 0.9 STL 1.0 BLK 1.6 TO 2.9 PF 12.4 PTS

Sure, I've never seen more than 7 games of MKG, and 0 from RHJ, but both Hornets fans and Nets fans rave about the defensive abilities of each player with equal fervor. I don't think it's out the realm of reality to think of MKG when trying to project who RHJ can become.

(2) I don't think last year was an aberration for the Hornets -- though the players on last year's team seemed to speak of that team as very unique in terms of camaraderie. And Jefferson and Lin were two major locker rooms presencii. I still predict that the Hornets will have a worse record than last year, maybe around low 40s.

[Flip Murray]

I regret opening this thread...

[reelsgm]

Popping in this thread just to point out a couple things.

(1) I don't think Lin fans have a real idea of how impactful MKG is on both ends of the floor, because he only played 7 games last season. They didn't see him enough to get a full appreciation of how much value he brings. By the same token, all I know about RHJ is POR traded him and he's supposed to play good defense, I haven't watched him other than when CHA has played BRK (as I suspect is true for some Lin fans equating him with MKG). I do however have a very hard time believing he is already at MKG's level defensively, given that he has only played a total of 29 games in the NBA.

(2) Some Lin fans may think last year was an aberration for the Hornets, but in the 2013-14 season (Clifford's first year as coach) we had 43 wins with a much more limited roster. The following season we endured a total flop in picking up Lance which derailed the start of our season, Marv underperformed as our new starting PF, and then we also had extended injuries to Kemba, Al, Cody, Biz, and MKG. Pointing to that season as evidence of what should be our expected performance doesn't seem reasonable IMO, it was that 2014-15 season that is more of the aberration.

Carry on.

1) Good luck to CHA if MKG continues to throw his body to the wind (and floor). That's a part of MKG's defense that we hope RHJ never embraces - not playing sensibly with moderation or self-control. The 7 gm stint saw MKG, with consent of medical/coach, land squarely 1 more injury away from bona fide Injury Prone label for remainder his career.
If MKG does elect to moderate, career extends but at what cost?Likely game slips a bit when he no longer risks as many chances and tones down.

2) MKG injured, CBSSports predicted 26.5 wins avg, logical-prev.33 wins/MKG key starter. Largest "positive" beneficiary of MKG out was Lin since Lin played just 16-17 min (ex-Cavs game) with MKG back(Hairston neutral at best and CLee 28 gms)
Lin's benchforce responsible for 11 reg. COMEBACK WINs after starters built double-digit+ DEFICITs (5 of -15pt+; 2 of -20pt+ deficits); flipside bench nearly NEVER relinquished leads starters built. Diametrically opposite previous bench GNeal/BRoberts.
Not easy to argue counterfactuals, who knows? had MKG been healthy last season or change anything else; but absolutely possible Lin would've played 39% fewer minutes.

Of course Hornets fans can argue MKG would've brought as much to the team as Lin, well you get your wish this season to prove it - since MKG is healthy and your team is largely intact from last.

[Mystical Apples]

Was surprised to see negative comments about Zeller, Kemba, and Batum. Anyways, visuals can help identify players who do the heavy lifting and do so efficiently.

x-axis = Percentage of total FGA's against starting units
y-axis = eFG% against starters.

Blue = Players in the top right quadrant with top 50 combined scoring/playmaking usages
Green = Hornets who made the rotation during the 2015-16 season
Blue + Green = Kemba and Nic

* Top right is dominated by low usage centers.
* Lopez is definitely a lifter and so was Jack before the injury. FYI Young was immediately above Lopez, sans usage expectations.


http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/

[Kswiss]

Was surprised to see negative comments about Zeller, Kemba, and Batum. Anyways, visuals can help identify players who do the heavy lifting and do so efficiently.

x-axis = Percentage of total FGA's against starting units
y-axis = eFG% against starters.

Blue = Players in the top right quadrant with top 50 combined scoring/playmaking usages
Green = Hornets who made the rotation during the 2015-16 season
Blue + Green = Kemba and Nic

* Top right is dominated by low usage centers.
* Lopez is definitely a lifter and so was Jack before the injury. FYI Young was immediately above Lopez, sans usage expectations.


http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/

I think this season will eliminate much of the controversy about which players improved the team the most, or whether Lin was that impactful to the win column. If the Hornets pull off another 48 win season, obviously Batum is a better player than I give him credit for. It's almost literally a controlled experiment with most of the team still intact and Lin replaced by an average backup PG and the addition of a healthy MKG. Gonna definitely be interesting to see the results

[Mystical Apples]

I have dozens of other fancy charts from the 2015-16 season. Hit me up if interested and I'll see what I can dig up....TBH I didn't think they'd be needed again

Assist Point Creation
Shot type / off. efficiency correlations
Dead v live defensive efficiency
TS% by passer, team adjusted
PPP / PPS
Team data, all play types
Pre vs Post All Star
Backed out PJ, Lee, Al, Lin
Shot clocks
WARP forecasts
Pull Up truth-telling data
etc...

[sidestep]

^ Last year's Hornets starting lineup was not especially impressive. Basically, the starting unit (Kemba and Batum, no Lin) played the great majority of the 1st and 3rd quarters and in those quarters they were lackluster.
1st Q: +1.5 NetRating
3rd Q: +0.6 NetRating

That's barely above 0.

In the 2nd Q, Lin's bench unit played the majority of the time and they were dominant.
2nd Q: +5.3 NetRating

Many games last year were saved by the bench unit in the 2nd quarter making up for the 1st quarter deficits created by the starters.

In the 4th quarter, it was often a Kemba and Batum and Lin lineup, and that was by far the most effective lineup.
4th Q: +6.9 NetRating

MysticalApples would have you believe that all Lin did was shore up the bench and didn't help the starters. But the best 5-man lineup (+33 NetRating) had Lin with the starters Kemba and Batum, and the second best lineup (+22 NetRating) had Batum and Lin and no Kemba. Of the ten best lineups, sorted by NetRtg, Lin was in seven of them.
https://i.imgur.com/bQrgwIT.png
It was closing lineups like these that helped garner the +6.9 NetRating in 4th quarters.

Lin himself didn't particularly benefit from playing alongside the starters Kemba and Batum against the opponent's starters because he was the 3rd option at best, but when you put the best players on the floor, the guys who get the most shots (Kemba, Batum) benefit the most from the gravity of their teammates such as Lin.

In other words, the game was easier for Kemba when Lin was on the floor with him, but that didn't necessarily help Lin's individual stats. Kemba took the shot when he had it, and if he didn't have anything, then Lin might get a chance. Camping on the weakside with Kemba dominating the ball, Lin wasn't going to get many looks behind Kemba and Batum.

Lin's spot in the Kemba-Batum-Lin trio will be replaced this year by MKG. I'm doubtful Kemba is going to shoot as efficiently with MKG beside him. MKV exerts less gravity on offense than Lin does. We shall see.

As for Lin's overall season stats, his boxscore averages were mediocre. His jumpshot percentage was the worst of his career. He had many quiet and low-performance games as well as many high-impact games, and together they resulted in a overall average that was middling. But he showed he could be a high impact player against the best teams such as the Cavs and Spurs, and it had a significant effect on the team's win totals. Not a small feat for a PG who was playing off the ball and out position, at SG, defending other SGs, much of the time.

[Mystical Apples]

Last year's Hornets starting lineup was not especially impressive.Basically, the starting unit (Kemba and Batum, no Lin)played the great majority of the 1st and 3rd quarters and in those quarters they were lackluster.
1st Q: +1.5 NetRating
3rd Q: +0.6 NetRating
That's barely above 0.

Getting past the intentionally fuzzy sample CHA's starters had the 6th best rating over 82 games, the bench 8th. After February 1st (hint) those numbers climbed to 4th and 6th, respectively. I think you'll find usable information looking into a 3rd variable: PJ Hairston. Everything else was relative noise compared to ditching PJ.

Hornets Rotation minus PJ: +6.1 would've been 4th overall (GSW, SAS, OKC).

Many games last year were saved by the bench unit in the 2nd quarter making up for the 1st quarter deficits created by the starters. In the 4th quarter, it was often a Kemba and Batum and Lin lineup, and that was by far the most effective lineup.4th Q: +6.9 NetRating. MysticalApples would have you believe that all Lin did was shore up the bench and didn't help the starters.

I'd have you believe Lin was an integral member of the Hornets (because he was) but Clifford didn't trust him without a primary handler. He used a staggered sub-pattern with Kemba and Nic splitting 2nd unit responsibilities: Kemba ~ last 4 minutes Q1, Nic first 4 minutes Q2. Lin's 355 out of 2048 minutes (17%) as the primary playmaker was by design.

Lin himself didn't particularly benefit from playing alongside the starters Kemba and Batum against the opponent's starters because he was the 3rd option at best, but when you put the best players on the floor, the guys who get the most shots (Kemba, Batum) benefit the most from the gravity of their teammates such as Lin.

Really? It's almost like you're grafting Batum's MO onto Jeremy Lin. Every Hornet except 1 was lights out with Charlotte's 2 heavy lifters, Lin included. His TS% of 57.9% would've been a career high.

[sidestep]

Last year's Hornets starting lineup was not especially impressive. Basically, the starting unit (Kemba and Batum, no Lin) played the great majority of the 1st and 3rd quarters and in those quarters they were lackluster.
1st Q: +1.5 NetRating
3rd Q: +0.6 NetRating
That's barely above 0.

Getting past the intentionally fuzzy sample CHA's starters had the 6th best rating over 82 games, the bench 8th. After February 1st (hint) those numbers climbed to 4th and 6th, respectively. I think you'll find usable information looking into a 3rd variable: PJ Hairston. Everything else was relative noise compared to ditching PJ.
Hornets Rotation minus PJ: +6.1 would've been 4th overall (GSW, SAS, OKC).

I took the season as a whole, instead of a "fuzzy sample"; I didn't cherrypick the season to isolate one part. Yes, it was worse when PJ was there, and it was better when he left, and together they average out to the numbers I posted. It is not just post-February wins that tally up to the win totals; the entire season counts.

Lin himself didn't particularly benefit from playing alongside the starters Kemba and Batum against the opponent's starters because he was the 3rd option at best, but when you put the best players on the floor, the guys who get the most shots (Kemba, Batum) benefit the most from the gravity of their teammates such as Lin.

In other words, the game was easier for Kemba when Lin was on the floor with him, but that didn't necessarily help Lin's individual stats. Kemba took the shot when he had it, and if he didn't have anything, then Lin might get a chance. Camping on the weakside with Kemba dominating the ball, Lin wasn't going to get many looks behind Kemba and Batum.

Really? It's almost like you're grafting Batum's MO onto Jeremy Lin. Every Hornet except 1 was lights out with Charlotte's 2 heavy lifters, Lin included. His TS% of 57.9% would've been a career high.

It's obvious from my post that I think when multiple offensive threats are on the court together, each of them can be more efficient since the defense cannot load up on any one guy. So, of course Lin's efficiency can benefit from Kemba being on the court just as Kemba can benefit from Lin. But the player who takes the most shots while they play together -- in this case, Kemba -- benefits the most from that on-court dynamic. And the player who takes fewer shots -- here, Lin -- benefits less from the potential gravity of his teammate. Lin in effect acted as a decoy for Kemba.
I stand by my statement that "the game was easier for Kemba when Lin was on the floor with him, but that didn't necessarily help Lin's individual stats." I could have been more precise by specifying "stats" as actual production instead of efficiency percentage, but I thought that was clear from context, since I did bring up the concept of 'gravity.'

[Kswiss]

Well fellahs I think the win column this season will be the ultimate deciding factor. Indivual stats can be arranged to make almost any argument but wins are concrete and immutable. If the Hornets win 48 games or perhaps more, we will know Lin wasn't as impactful as many thought he was. I like the Hornets and most of the players (minus Zeller -_-) but I think it will be interesting to see how they perform relative to last season. We will also see how Lin starting may indeed affect his stats and PER and likely fg% since it is much easier to shoot when warm than coming in cold off the bench. If the Nets exceed expectations like the Hornets last year in wins, perhaps it will be time to give Lin his due credit. Wish the season was here already lol I'm so curious to see how these things turn out

[Mystical Apples]

Last year's Hornets starting lineup was not especially impressive. Basically, the starting unit (Kemba and Batum, no Lin) played the great majority of the 1st and 3rd quarters and in those quarters they were lackluster.
1st Q: +1.5 NetRating
3rd Q: +0.6 NetRating
That's barely above 0.

Getting past the intentionally fuzzy sample CHA's starters had the 6th best rating over 82 games, the bench 8th. After February 1st (hint) those numbers climbed to 4th and 6th, respectively. I think you'll find usable information looking into a 3rd variable: PJ Hairston. Everything else was relative noise compared to ditching PJ.
Hornets Rotation minus PJ: +6.1 would've been 4th overall (GSW, SAS, OKC).

I took the season as a whole, instead of a "fuzzy sample"; I didn't cherrypick the season to isolate one part. Yes, it was worse when PJ was there, and it was better when he left, and together they average out to the numbers I posted. It is not just post-February wins that tally up to the win totals; the entire season counts.

We both know how disingenuous it is to assign Q1 stats to starters, Q2 to bench players but that's exactly what you did. I mean, it's cute but without specific lineup combinations it serves no purpose other than to push canned narratives. In this case Starters = lackluster, Lin = fancy jazz hands.

But the player who takes the most shots while they play together -- in this case, Kemba -- benefits the most from that on-court dynamic. And the player who takes fewer shots -- here, Lin -- benefits less from the potential gravity of his teammate. Lin in effect acted as a decoy for Kemba. I stand by my statement that "the game was easier for Kemba when Lin was on the floor with him

Nah, you can stand behind whatever but this is empirically twisted. Usage and efficiency are correlated - usage *is* the gravity along with efficiency.

[reelsgm]

Well fellahs I think the win column this season will be the ultimate deciding factor. Indivual stats can be arranged to make almost any argument but wins are concrete and immutable. If the Hornets win 48 games or perhaps more, we will know Lin wasn't as impactful as many thought he was. I like the Hornets and most of the players (minus Zeller -_-) but I think it will be interesting to see how they perform relative to last season. We will also see how Lin starting may indeed affect his stats and PER and likely fg% since it is much easier to shoot when warm than coming in cold off the bench. If the Nets exceed expectations like the Hornets last year in wins, perhaps it will be time to give Lin his due credit. Wish the season was here already lol I'm so curious to see how these things turn out

Wholeheartedly agree, the time for statistical analysis and fancy charts from last season is OVER - the rubber hits the road soon.

Hornets are the same team, only better (perspective of CHA fans) since MKG returns, who only lost:

1. 3-D wing (28 gms played)
2. Backup Center (47 gms)
3. 3rd-string 3pt specialist
4. 6th man point guard (85 gms) who led 11 regular season comeback wins from deep holes of 10pt-23pts which starters had dug.

Batum had a hand in digging the holes which Lin's benchforce filled so often.

Hornets want to forget Lin which is fitting and proper. But EVERYONE in the stadium will be thinking of Lin the first instance that starters dig a double digit hole again. They will be wondering if Sessions/BRob would engineer comebacks like Lin did so often.

[sidestep]

Getting past the intentionally fuzzy sample CHA's starters had the 6th best rating over 82 games, the bench 8th. After February 1st (hint) those numbers climbed to 4th and 6th, respectively. I think you'll find usable information looking into a 3rd variable: PJ Hairston. Everything else was relative noise compared to ditching PJ.
Hornets Rotation minus PJ: +6.1 would've been 4th overall (GSW, SAS, OKC).

I took the season as a whole, instead of a "fuzzy sample"; I didn't cherrypick the season to isolate one part. Yes, it was worse when PJ was there, and it was better when he left, and together they average out to the numbers I posted. It is not just post-February wins that tally up to the win totals; the entire season counts.

We both know how disingenuous it is to assign Q1 stats to starters, Q2 to bench players but that's exactly what you did. I mean, it's cute but without specific lineup combinations it serves no purpose other than to push canned narratives. In this case Starters = lackluster, Lin = fancy jazz hands.

Lineup data doesn't show game flows. There is not an easy at-a-glance way to show game flows for the season -- when and which units were responsible for creating deficits, when and which units staged comebacks, when and which units created leads. If you have a better way to show game flows, be my guest. The quarter splits do correlate strongly to the starter/bench rotations, and Clifford was very consistent with that for quarters 1-3. The starters played the majority of the 1st and 3rd quarters, Lin coming in at the end of the 1st, at the beginning of the 2nd, and at the end of the 3rd. The Hornets starters playing poorly in the 1st and 3rd quarters is a real thing, but maybe you didn't watch games with that in mind.
The point is the starters created many deficits that Lin's bench unit made up, and the bench even created leads for the starters. You can agree or disagree with that claim.

But the player who takes the most shots while they play together -- in this case, Kemba -- benefits the most from that on-court dynamic. And the player who takes fewer shots -- here, Lin -- benefits less from the potential gravity of his teammate. Lin in effect acted as a decoy for Kemba. I stand by my statement that "the game was easier for Kemba when Lin was on the floor with him

Nah, you can stand behind whatever but this is empirically twisted. Usage and efficiency are correlated - usage *is* the gravity along with efficiency.

Usage rate is basically how many shots a player takes, as a percentage of the team totals. I don't need to look up an "advanced" stat like usage to know who took the most shots on that team. And that is correlated to efficiency and gravity?
You must be really smart because I have no idea what you said. But that's okay.