sidestep wrote:MysticalApples wrote:We both know how disingenuous it is to assign Q1 stats to starters, Q2 to bench players but that's exactly what you did. I mean, it's cute but without specific lineup combinations it serves no purpose other than to push canned narratives. In this case Starters = lackluster, Lin = fancy jazz hands.
Lineup data doesn't show game flows. There is not an easy at-a-glance way to show game flows for the season -- when and which units were responsible for creating deficits, when and which units staged comebacks, when and which units created leads. If you have a better way to show game flows, be my guest.
The quarter splits do correlate strongly to the starter/bench rotations, and Clifford was very consistent with that for quarters 1-3. The starters played the majority of the 1st and 3rd quarters, Lin coming in at the end of the 1st, at the beginning of the 2nd, and at the end of the 3rd. The Hornets starters playing poorly in the 1st and 3rd quarters is a real thing, but maybe you didn't watch games with that in mind.
The point is the starters created many deficits that Lin's bench unit made up, and the bench even created leads for the starters. You can agree or disagree with that claim.
Actually, as it turns out, there is an easy at-a-glance way to see who played in which quarters, posted today by alexwainger on reddit. And the graph confirms what I said above in bold.
link:
http://alexwainger.github.io/NBASubstitutionPatterns/The graph shows that the starters played the great majority of the 1st and 3rd quarters, with Kemba often playing the entirety of those stretches.
1st Q: +1.5 pts per 100 possessions
3rd Q: +0.6 pts per 100 possessions
With a net average barely above 0, there were indeed many deficits created by starter-dominant units in the 1st and 3rd quarters.
In contrast, the 2nd quarter, which opened with Lin, had a large bench presence. And the result was a top-tier NetRating of +5.3 points. And the 4th quarter also had a bench presence and closing lineups that differed from the starting lineups. NetRtg +6.9.
The margin of difference here is not some negligibly small blip; it's a huge 4 to 6 pt difference. On the low end, that's a team barely above .500 (+1.5 and +.6 NetReg); and on the high end, that's an utterly dominant team. Who is responsible for those lackluster quarters? Is it really PJ, as you've suggested before, who used few possessions? Or do the guys who used most of the possessions bear most of the responsibility?
You speak of 'canned narratives.' I'm waiting to hear one.
This was during a Boxfish presentation during his trip to China. Boxfish is the education app he's promoting to reform the school system in China for teaching English.
