WOJ: 4 Nets players test positive for Coronavirus

[vincecarter4pres]

A counterpoint by a Stanford professor published on Stat. It's an interesting read, with sound numerical evidence and logic from a well credentialed expert that goes against most of what we see on TV. I'm not saying he's definitely right or wrong. It's just a good counterpoint...

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

It's really bad article IMO. His data selection is really flawed and he's making some real apples to oranges comparisons.

THe premise of what he is saying *could* be right but not with the way he presented it/evidence used.

Let's say it like this, 5% of the US pop gets it, it has an 0.5% mortality rate, that's 83,000 dead.

He's talking numbers like 1% of the population gets it and 10k die. We're probably currently closing in on that number, they just haven't been testing. It's a lot more likely 20% or more get it, there is no current immunity to it, or prior vaccines. The mortality rate will probably be much lower when the smoke clears though, but the raw numbers infected will produce a staggering amount of deaths, along with tons of collateral damage from the overloading of the healthcare system.

[GTR11]

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[GTR11]

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[MrDollarBills]

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Phil Murphy is so on the ball. Even though we're right next to NYC which has like 4000+ cases I feel a bit more at ease knowing we've got good sensible leadership in place. Murphy and Cuomo are handling this the way Trump's dumb ass should have handled this in January when they knew this crap was coming over here.

[MrDollarBills]

Read on Twitter

zero leadership. God help anyone living in Republican controlled states, the federal response is not going to be adequate.

[kamaze]

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The city that the beach is in should close the beaches. I put the blame on them. Since they're not closed of course the beach is going to be packed it's spring break! Here in Jersey some of the local parks are closed, the Florida politicians have blood on their hands.

[TheNetsFan]

A counterpoint by a Stanford professor published on Stat. It's an interesting read, with sound numerical evidence and logic from a well credentialed expert that goes against most of what we see on TV. I'm not saying he's definitely right or wrong. It's just a good counterpoint...

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

It's really bad article IMO. His data selection is really flawed and he's making some real apples to oranges comparisons.

THe premise of what he is saying *could* be right but not with the way he presented it/evidence used.

Let's say it like this, 5% of the US pop gets it, it has an 0.5% mortality rate, that's 83,000 dead.

He's talking numbers like 1% of the population gets it and 10k die. We're probably currently closing in on that number, they just haven't been testing. It's a lot more likely 20% or more get it, there is no current immunity to it, or prior vaccines. The mortality rate will probably be much lower when the smoke clears though, but the raw numbers infected will produce a staggering amount of deaths, along with tons of collateral damage from the overloading of the healthcare system.

He's not the only academic/expert arguing these numbers. The hubris to thing any of us on this board know enough to point out supposed flaws in this doctor's logic (who is an epidemiologist & statistician at a university on par with Ivy league institutions) is astounding. He may not be right. He states that the data sample is severely flawed and lacking. However, his opinions and models hold every bit as much weight as other experts.

There was a doctor out of Germany also arguing that the mass hysteria was overblown, pointing to historic norms of Coronavirus family of viruses make up 7-14% of all flu cases annually, and that the number of deaths are still noise level relative to annual flu-like deaths. Things will continue to play out. They can be proven wrong (hopefully not). I doubt they can be proven right, because even if this does subside as they predict, the extreme measures will get all of the credit. Regardless, the hope is that it does wane. The end results will be the most telling. All the intermediate data is flawed, because the ramp up in testing will obviously correlate with a ramp up in cases. What hopefully does happen is that ramp up in cases correlates to a decrease in the mortality rate.

[MrDollarBills]

It's really bad article IMO. His data selection is really flawed and he's making some real apples to oranges comparisons.

THe premise of what he is saying *could* be right but not with the way he presented it/evidence used.

Let's say it like this, 5% of the US pop gets it, it has an 0.5% mortality rate, that's 83,000 dead.

He's talking numbers like 1% of the population gets it and 10k die. We're probably currently closing in on that number, they just haven't been testing. It's a lot more likely 20% or more get it, there is no current immunity to it, or prior vaccines. The mortality rate will probably be much lower when the smoke clears though, but the raw numbers infected will produce a staggering amount of deaths, along with tons of collateral damage from the overloading of the healthcare system.

He's not the only academic/expert arguing these numbers. The hubris to thing any of us on this board know enough to point out supposed flaws in this doctor's logic (who is an epidemiologist & statistician at a university on par with Ivy league institutions) is astounding. He may not be right. He states that the data sample is severely flawed and lacking. However, his opinions and models hold every bit as much weight as other experts.

There was a doctor out of Germany also arguing that the mass hysteria was overblown, pointing to historic norms of Coronavirus family of viruses make up 7-14% of all flu cases annually, and that the number of deaths are still noise level relative to annual flu-like deaths. Things will continue to play out. They can be proven wrong (hopefully not). I doubt they can be proven right, because even if this does subside as they predict, the extreme measures will get all of the credit. Regardless, the hope is that it does wane. The end results will be the most telling. All the intermediate data is flawed, because the ramp up in testing will obviously correlate with a ramp up in cases. What hopefully does happen is that ramp up in cases correlates to a decrease in the mortality rate.

Here's my thing though...can we afford NOT to take extreme measures given what we've seen in China and Italy thus far? Especially with the incompetence coming from the federal level? Trump knew about this since January 20th at latest and he called it a hoax. Had we been ahead of the curve 2 months ago you might have a solid case, but we're not. We're severely behind and the numbers are going to explode with the more testing that gets done.

I don't blame the governors from NY, NJ, CT, CA, IL for shutting things down. Regardless of what we find out about Covid 19 over the long term, there are way too many unknowns to have a response that isn't extreme, especially when we've been sold out by Trump and the GOP Senate who again, KNEW what was coming and chose to either spread disinformation or keep quiet and not sound the alarm (and there are Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee who need to be questioned on why they weren't warning the public).

I would rather leadership at the state level err on the side of caution over letting things get to the point where we're picking and choosing who lives and who dies.

[TheNetsFan]

Let's say it like this, 5% of the US pop gets it, it has an 0.5% mortality rate, that's 83,000 dead.

He's talking numbers like 1% of the population gets it and 10k die. We're probably currently closing in on that number, they just haven't been testing. It's a lot more likely 20% or more get it, there is no current immunity to it, or prior vaccines. The mortality rate will probably be much lower when the smoke clears though, but the raw numbers infected will produce a staggering amount of deaths, along with tons of collateral damage from the overloading of the healthcare system.

He's not the only academic/expert arguing these numbers. The hubris to thing any of us on this board know enough to point out supposed flaws in this doctor's logic (who is an epidemiologist & statistician at a university on par with Ivy league institutions) is astounding. He may not be right. He states that the data sample is severely flawed and lacking. However, his opinions and models hold every bit as much weight as other experts.

There was a doctor out of Germany also arguing that the mass hysteria was overblown, pointing to historic norms of Coronavirus family of viruses make up 7-14% of all flu cases annually, and that the number of deaths are still noise level relative to annual flu-like deaths. Things will continue to play out. They can be proven wrong (hopefully not). I doubt they can be proven right, because even if this does subside as they predict, the extreme measures will get all of the credit. Regardless, the hope is that it does wane. The end results will be the most telling. All the intermediate data is flawed, because the ramp up in testing will obviously correlate with a ramp up in cases. What hopefully does happen is that ramp up in cases correlates to a decrease in the mortality rate.

Here's my thing though...can we afford NOT to take extreme measures given what we've seen in China and Italy thus far? Especially with the incompetence coming from the federal level? Trump knew about this since January 20th at latest and he called it a hoax. Had we been ahead of the curve 2 months ago you might have a solid case, but we're not. We're severely behind and the numbers are going to explode with the more testing that gets done.

I don't blame the governors from NY, NJ, CT, CA, IL for shutting things down. Regardless of what we find out about Covid 19 over the long term, there are way too many unknowns to have a response that isn't extreme, especially when we've been sold out by Trump and the GOP Senate who again, KNEW what was coming and chose to either spread disinformation or keep quiet and not sound the alarm (and there are Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee who need to be questioned on why they weren't warning the public).

I would rather leadership at the state level err on the side of caution over letting things get to the point where we're picking and choosing who lives and who dies.

Of course the numbers are going to explode. If 20% of the population is infected, and you go from testing dozens a day to hundreds then thousands a day, the numbers will explode, but it does not necessarily mean that the spread has accelerated in proportion to the rate of known cases.

The only way to really know the rate and extent is to test a large, diverse portion of the population weekly.That's not feasible. So we act based on worst case scenario as a matter of short-term precaution, but to longer-term economic detriment. We can only hope that this does not become a new annual normal, every time a new strain of a virus emerges, because that happens all the time.

[vincecarter4pres]

China was the tip of the iceberg.

Some people aren't accepting it yet, but we are not China, on so many levels. They point to it as the likely case and best case, but we're well past that right now.

China's communist government kidnapped it's own citizens with goon squads in hazmat suits, welded it's own citizens in apartments, killed their pets, assassinated doctors who tried to help, skewed numbers, hid the fact a lot of infected were children and young adults, bathed the streets in carcinogenic disinfectants for weeks, shut down major cities for months, made people disappear... But also immediately erected massive hospitals, produced ventilators, tried experimental therapies and closed off economic arteries from one another.

We've instead had a reality TV show host for a president lie through his teeth and hinder every step of the process and let us roam streets, and also, rightfully so we won't violate every civil right affordable to citizens in a free nation... Until... If.. it gets past point of no return and then who knows?

Lord willing it doesn't ever get to that extreme though.

The bottom line though, we'll easily more reflect a much bigger and populated Italy, then China or South Korea Imho.

South Korea did things right. We slept on this and now it's too late.

[vincecarter4pres]

He's not the only academic/expert arguing these numbers. The hubris to thing any of us on this board know enough to point out supposed flaws in this doctor's logic (who is an epidemiologist & statistician at a university on par with Ivy league institutions) is astounding. He may not be right. He states that the data sample is severely flawed and lacking. However, his opinions and models hold every bit as much weight as other experts.

There was a doctor out of Germany also arguing that the mass hysteria was overblown, pointing to historic norms of Coronavirus family of viruses make up 7-14% of all flu cases annually, and that the number of deaths are still noise level relative to annual flu-like deaths. Things will continue to play out. They can be proven wrong (hopefully not). I doubt they can be proven right, because even if this does subside as they predict, the extreme measures will get all of the credit. Regardless, the hope is that it does wane. The end results will be the most telling. All the intermediate data is flawed, because the ramp up in testing will obviously correlate with a ramp up in cases. What hopefully does happen is that ramp up in cases correlates to a decrease in the mortality rate.

Here's my thing though...can we afford NOT to take extreme measures given what we've seen in China and Italy thus far? Especially with the incompetence coming from the federal level? Trump knew about this since January 20th at latest and he called it a hoax. Had we been ahead of the curve 2 months ago you might have a solid case, but we're not. We're severely behind and the numbers are going to explode with the more testing that gets done.

I don't blame the governors from NY, NJ, CT, CA, IL for shutting things down. Regardless of what we find out about Covid 19 over the long term, there are way too many unknowns to have a response that isn't extreme, especially when we've been sold out by Trump and the GOP Senate who again, KNEW what was coming and chose to either spread disinformation or keep quiet and not sound the alarm (and there are Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee who need to be questioned on why they weren't warning the public).

I would rather leadership at the state level err on the side of caution over letting things get to the point where we're picking and choosing who lives and who dies.

Of course the numbers are going to explode. If 20% of the population is infected, and you go from testing dozens a day to hundreds then thousands a day, the numbers will explode, but it does not necessarily mean that the spread has accelerated in proportion to the rate of known cases.

The only way to really know the rate and extent is to test a large, diverse portion of the population weekly.That's not feasible. So we act based on worst case scenario as a matter of short-term precaution, but to longer-term economic detriment. We can only hope that this does not become a new annual normal, every time a new strain of a virus emerges, because that happens all the time.

It's the simple math.

If 20% get it, even if it has a sliver of mortality rate of most infectious viruses, it will run through death totals like a viral Jesse Owens.

I don't need a PHD in anything to understand simple mathematics.

Over 330,000,000 in this country. 65,000,000 get it, a tenth of a percent fatality rate and you're at 65,000 deaths.

And you're right, this does happen all the time... New viruses...

What doesn't happen is the historic shutdown of the planet.

Are the mainstream media fear mongering scumbags?

Yes.

But is this unprecedented, wildly unbelievable territory?

Indeed.

There isn't an ulterior motive big enough for this one. We are in the middle of a real life movie and it sucks so bad

[Prokorov]

Here's my thing though...can we afford NOT to take extreme measures given what we've seen in China and Italy thus far? Especially with the incompetence coming from the federal level? Trump knew about this since January 20th at latest and he called it a hoax. Had we been ahead of the curve 2 months ago you might have a solid case, but we're not. We're severely behind and the numbers are going to explode with the more testing that gets done.

I don't blame the governors from NY, NJ, CT, CA, IL for shutting things down. Regardless of what we find out about Covid 19 over the long term, there are way too many unknowns to have a response that isn't extreme, especially when we've been sold out by Trump and the GOP Senate who again, KNEW what was coming and chose to either spread disinformation or keep quiet and not sound the alarm (and there are Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee who need to be questioned on why they weren't warning the public).

I would rather leadership at the state level err on the side of caution over letting things get to the point where we're picking and choosing who lives and who dies.

Of course the numbers are going to explode. If 20% of the population is infected, and you go from testing dozens a day to hundreds then thousands a day, the numbers will explode, but it does not necessarily mean that the spread has accelerated in proportion to the rate of known cases.

The only way to really know the rate and extent is to test a large, diverse portion of the population weekly.That's not feasible. So we act based on worst case scenario as a matter of short-term precaution, but to longer-term economic detriment. We can only hope that this does not become a new annual normal, every time a new strain of a virus emerges, because that happens all the time.

It's the simple math.

If 20% get it, even if it has a sliver of mortality rate of most infectious viruses, it will run through death totals like a viral Jesse Owens.

I don't need a PHD in anything to understand simple mathematics.

Over 330,000,000 in this country. 65,000,000 get it, a tenth of a percent fatality rate and you're at 65,000 deaths.

And you're right, this does happen all the time... New viruses...

What doesn't happen is the historic shutdown of the planet.

Are the mainstream media fear mongering scumbags?

Yes.

But is this unprecedented, wildly unbelievable territory?

Indeed.

There isn't an ulterior motive big enough for this one. We are in the middle of a real life movie and it sucks so bad

Also the mortality rate becomes increasingly irrelevant the quicker it spreads... Like if there was a magic shot in the arm that cured it, it wouldnt matter if we couldnt produce the shots fast enough and we could only get 70% of the people in hospitals to get the shot.

So something that may normally have a fatality rate of 0.5% ends up closer to 5-10% (like we are seeing in italy).

people should be terrified. if they get sick and need a ventilator its probably 50/50 chance they live or die. especially if you live in a big city that is hit harder with the infection

[gigantes]

...people should be terrified. if they get sick and need a ventilator its probably 50/50 chance they live or die. especially if you live in a big city that is hit harder with the infection

Dying isn't an outcome that scares me. What scares me is getting my lungs wrecked by permanent or semi-permanent damage, and being stuck with that, lingering on for however long. l mean I already have CFS/ME, and don't need any new handicaps to say the least.

People do understand that this particular virus crushes the lungs, right? That's one of the real x-factors with this one, along with the fact that we have no prior contact / resistance built up, meaning that for each one of us who gets infected, it's up to genetics and our adaptive immune response (not the primary one that 'turns up our body temp,' but the one that designs a specific solution) in order to survive.

Also, that Covid-19 can survive for several hours in particulate form in the air, as well as up to three days on metal surfaces (but not copper).

And of course, all the while our national response is being led by pretty much the biggest f-cking idiot of a leader in the developed or semi-developed world. Bolsonaro of Brazil seems like his lost twin, I think. Duterte would be the next tier up, or thereabouts.

[TheNetsFan]

So it's sounding like federal restrictions/guidance will soon be lifted, and it'll be up to the states, which makes the most sense. I could even see it getting down to the county level. The areas hardest hit (NY, WA, CA, etc.) should maintain their abundance of caution. More rural areas that haven't been hit hard have lower risk of out of control spread. As crazy as it sounds, there should be interstate travel restrictions.

You hear more and more about the balancing of the illness risks versus not just the economic impact, but also the psychological impact of isolation.I think frustration is going to take hold, and the latter is going to start winning out.

[MrDollarBills]

Of course the numbers are going to explode. If 20% of the population is infected, and you go from testing dozens a day to hundreds then thousands a day, the numbers will explode, but it does not necessarily mean that the spread has accelerated in proportion to the rate of known cases.

The only way to really know the rate and extent is to test a large, diverse portion of the population weekly.That's not feasible. So we act based on worst case scenario as a matter of short-term precaution, but to longer-term economic detriment. We can only hope that this does not become a new annual normal, every time a new strain of a virus emerges, because that happens all the time.

It's the simple math.

If 20% get it, even if it has a sliver of mortality rate of most infectious viruses, it will run through death totals like a viral Jesse Owens.

I don't need a PHD in anything to understand simple mathematics.

Over 330,000,000 in this country. 65,000,000 get it, a tenth of a percent fatality rate and you're at 65,000 deaths.

And you're right, this does happen all the time... New viruses...

What doesn't happen is the historic shutdown of the planet.

Are the mainstream media fear mongering scumbags?

Yes.

But is this unprecedented, wildly unbelievable territory?

Indeed.

There isn't an ulterior motive big enough for this one. We are in the middle of a real life movie and it sucks so bad

Also the mortality rate becomes increasingly irrelevant the quicker it spreads... Like if there was a magic shot in the arm that cured it, it wouldnt matter if we couldnt produce the shots fast enough and we could only get 70% of the people in hospitals to get the shot.

So something that may normally have a fatality rate of 0.5% ends up closer to 5-10% (like we are seeing in italy).

people should be terrified. if they get sick and need a ventilator its probably 50/50 chance they live or die. especially if you live in a big city that is hit harder with the infection

This is why NY/NJ/CT have responded in this manner. You cannot risk taxing the healthcare system, once that happens this will become a humanitarian disaster.

These idiots, and not to make it a partisan issue but they're all republicans, who are talking about "reopening America" in April because of the economy are insane. If you reopen everything the only thing that will happen is that the virus numbers will skyrocket (they already are NOW) and the healthcare system will become overwhelmed, which will destroy the economy completely.

It's better to keep things shut down, prop up the folks that need help, let people who can work from home continue to do so, and ride this out until the virus is contained. Momentary pain for long term gain is a lot better than short term gain for long term pain. Trump is a moron.

[MrDollarBills]

So it's sounding like federal restrictions/guidance will soon be lifted, and it'll be up to the states, which makes the most sense. I could even see it getting down to the county level. The areas hardest hit (NY, WA, CA, etc.) should maintain their abundance of caution. More rural areas that haven't been hit hard have lower risk of out of control spread. As crazy as it sounds, there should be interstate travel restrictions.

You hear more and more about the balancing of the illness risks versus not just the economic impact, but also the psychological impact of isolation.I think frustration is going to take hold, and the latter is going to start winning out.

And if the latter wins out, this situation becomes even deadlier.

I am glad I live in a Democratic controlled state with sensible people in charge who value science and saving lives over a small bump in the stock market. It makes zero sense to lift restrictions, all that is doing is putting people at risk. What needs to be done: pass legislation to protect workers, freeze rents/mortgages, enhance unemployment benefits nation wide and send families financial assistance while keeping only essential functions running. Utilize the national defense act to ramp up production on supplies for healthcare workers. Nothing else should be considered, the economy must take a back seat to making sure that this virus is under control.

When the check comes due for Florida's inaction, people will start waking up to the danger of this and by then it will be too late. I would absolutely shut down non essential interstate travel because frankly the states who are run by people who think this is a hoax need to be cut off before they make things worse for the states that are already hit hard by this.

[Prokorov]

the idea people will be back in april is absurd. Italy has like 800 people dying a day. it will be like that here in a week, only worse because we have a larger population

[MrDollarBills]

the idea people will be back in april is absurd. Italy has like 800 people dying a day. it will be like that here in a week, only worse because we have a larger population

The daily death count keeps jumping each day, it is beyond absurd.

It's going to be weeks before we see a dip in new cases, and that's being generous. We'd better hope that the impending summer heat helps to stave this thing off.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

Look at these numbers. Anyone thinking that we're going to see a return normalcy by next week is out of their goddamn minds.

The gulf coast is a ticking timebomb waiting to explode.

[MrDollarBills]

oh my god

Read on Twitter

This is horrifying. KAT's mom is from New Jersey from the area that I'm from so this really hurts to hear...I really hope she pulls through. She's not exactly old either so people who think this only impacts elderly folks need a reality check.

Again. This is not a game or a joke. Nothing will be reopening, and screw the economy. Lives comes first.

[TheNetsFan]

the idea people will be back in april is absurd. Italy has like 800 people dying a day. it will be like that here in a week, only worse because we have a larger population

The daily death count keeps jumping each day, it is beyond absurd.

It's going to be weeks before we see a dip in new cases, and that's being generous. We'd better hope that the impending summer heat helps to stave this thing off.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

Look at these numbers. Anyone thinking that we're going to see a return normalcy by next week is out of their goddamn minds.

The gulf coast is a ticking timebomb waiting to explode.

Lockdown does not need to be a national thing. NYC & the surrounding areas will not be back to normal any time soon. That doesn't mean more rural locations need to act the same way.

The first thing that should happen is to lock down all the bridges & tunnels, and other travel in and out of NYC & other highly infected cities. Nobody gets to cross any of the rivers, Hudson, East, Delaware, etc. That in itself doesn't save NYC, but it should help slow the spread to other areas. When getting over the hump to a decline in new cases, that's likely to happen from the outside in unless NYC simply burns itself out because the rate of spread never got under control. Suburban & rural areas are the best hope for stopping geographic spread. More space, few indoor common areas, etc. can make quarantining much more effective.

Also, I think the most trustworthy stat of a flawed data set will be the number of new deaths. The number of new cases is going to explode regardless given the increasing rates of testing. We can assume with a moderate degree of certainty that the the most severe and fatal cases were prioritized in early testing, so the early death counts are far more accurate than the early case counts.The US as a whole seemed to be decreasing in the doubling time of deaths for a bit, but has since seen an increase again. It's not doubling approximately every 4 days. That is predominantly due to NY (doubling almost every day), which has been trending in the wrong direction, while CA (doubling about every 6 days) has been on a noticed decline. WA had been moving in a positive direction, but has since leveled off (doubling about every 4 days).