Early discussion on the 2023 offseason

[Decipher]

How do you feel guys about the earlier report that we turned down #3 (Scoot) & Simons for Mikal?

simons is already paid more than mikal and seems like an empty stat stuffer, so given the poole trade i view him almost negative value.

so then it comes down to scoot's upside vs. bridges value on that contract. it is close tbh and id have been comfortable either way. bridges is the safer decision, and i guess if lillard is really in play that's the preferable road because i think in this version of the east if they get lillard they are going to be a top 4 team. possibly top 3 if harden leaves philly, and likely with more picks to trade + simmons as a salary match to make another big move in the next 12-18 months post-lillard trade.

Cam Thomas is paid 10% of Simons salary and isn’t appreciably worse

[Netaman]

i wasn't all in on Lillard and im still not, but it's hard for me to see that as anything other than inevitable unless Portland has an unyielding love for Tyler Herro (or a 3rd team), which given the value of jordan poole seems unlikely.

This is a simple construct with the Nets sending Portland all the KD picks + Cam Thomas and DFS, which I dont think the Heat can't match. Portland could reroute DFS wherever they want probably for another pick.



Lillard - Dinwiddie - Sumner
Royce - Whitehead
Bridges - Simmons
Cam J. - Clowney
Claxton - Sharpe

that's a top 3 or 4 team in the east depending on what Harden/Middleton do. they'd obviously also add some minimum salary vets but they'd also have flexibility to make other moves if they want. they'd have the 18m KD trade exception, the 4.5m kyrie exception, bi-annual, etc.

[Tha King]

How do you feel guys about the earlier report that we turned down #3 (Scoot) & Simons for Mikal?

There's absolutely a chance the pick doesn't turn out as a player as good as Bridges but I think that would have been the best path to finding a franchise level player.

[Netaman]

How do you feel guys about the earlier report that we turned down #3 (Scoot) & Simons for Mikal?

There's absolutely a chance the pick doesn't turn out as a player as good as Bridges but I think that would have been the best path to finding a franchise level player.

even with lillard as a trade possibility (on top of bridges)?

that's where i think it tips toward keeping bridges with some certainty.

[Tha King]

How do you feel guys about the earlier report that we turned down #3 (Scoot) & Simons for Mikal?

There's absolutely a chance the pick doesn't turn out as a player as good as Bridges but I think that would have been the best path to finding a franchise level player.

even with lillard as a trade possibility (on top of bridges)?

that's where i think it tips toward keeping bridges with some certainty.

imo exhausting what could be valuable picks to build around Lillard for maybe a couple years and Bridges who has yet to make an all star team and was considered a 3&D role player this time last year would not be ideal. It would be far from it.

I also don't think a team with Dame as your best player is an actual contender. You need someone as good or better imo

Trading picks for Dame is the short cut this franchise has been taking for a while now and the results have consistently been the same.

[JKiddy]

Take back the 2028 and 2029 picks and it would be a deal we might have to make. But, 4 picks, NO!

We can't mortgage our PRESENT and FUTURE with a 33 year old Dame. I would be okay if it were 2 of the picks in 2025 and maybe a 2026 pick of some sort.

[Netaman]

There's absolutely a chance the pick doesn't turn out as a player as good as Bridges but I think that would have been the best path to finding a franchise level player.

even with lillard as a trade possibility (on top of bridges)?

that's where i think it tips toward keeping bridges with some certainty.

imo exhausting what could be valuable picks to build around Lillard for maybe a couple years and Bridges who has yet to make an all star team and was considered a 3&D role player this time last year would not be ideal. It would be far from it.

I also don't think a team with Dame as your best player is an actual contender. You at least need someone as good or better imo

ok but they'd have means to get another player. they have 11 future picks they can trade, and the bold above features a big qualifier. whatever picks they trade for lillard or anyone else could end up no different than last night's picks also.

it sounds like lac may be starting to listen on pg3. mitchell could hit the market again. KAT. who knows what any of those teams do at the deadline if they aren't having good seasons.

and next year simmons is a $40m expiring who can salary match almost anyone in the NBA. lillard and bridges (and likely cam j) would be under contract for 4 years together. if we get lillard we will have averaged 1.5 superstar trades per year for the last 3 years lol.

[Stone]

Take back the 2028 and 2029 picks and it would be a deal we might have to make. But, 4 picks, NO!

We can't mortgage our PRESENT and FUTURE with a 33 year old Dame. I would be okay if it were 2 of the picks in 2025 and maybe a 2026 pick of some sort.

+1

No way I am comfortable with give all the picks for Dame. He is too old and too top heavy salary wise. That move would cripple our future. If he wants out and wants to be here, then we should be in the drives seat. Haven't we learned anything from the Harden disaster?

[Tha King]

even with lillard as a trade possibility (on top of bridges)?

that's where i think it tips toward keeping bridges with some certainty.

imo exhausting what could be valuable picks to build around Lillard for maybe a couple years and Bridges who has yet to make an all star team and was considered a 3&D role player this time last year would not be ideal. It would be far from it.

I also don't think a team with Dame as your best player is an actual contender. You at least need someone as good or better imo

ok but they'd have means to get another player. they have 11 future picks they can trade, and the bold above features a big qualifier. whatever picks they trade for lillard or anyone else could end up no different than last night's picks also.

it sounds like lac may be starting to listen on pg3. mitchell could hit the market again. KAT. who knows what any of those teams do at the deadline if they aren't having good seasons.

and next year simmons is a $40m expiring who can salary match almost anyone in the NBA. lillard and bridges (and likely cam j) would be under contract for 4 years together. if we get lillard we will have averaged 1.5 superstar trades per year for the last 3 years lol.

with what though? The Suns picks are the most valuable picks the team has which are outgoing.

The Sixers pick is protected and the Mavs pick while there is potential is meh as long as they have Luka. I don't think those two picks even return a high level starter on a long term contract. Unless the team further trades more of its picks and decides not to have control of its picks for a decade plus I don't think there'd be a way to add a player just as good or better than Lillard.

[3pt_chucker]

Take back the 2028 and 2029 picks and it would be a deal we might have to make. But, 4 picks, NO!

We can't mortgage our PRESENT and FUTURE with a 33 year old Dame. I would be okay if it were 2 of the picks in 2025 and maybe a 2026 pick of some sort.

Agreed. Nets have to hang onto the later PHX picks at minimum. Nets have 11 tradeable 1sts. No need to send them all the premium ones.

Heck, I'd rather send one of the Nets own future picks than PHX '29 pick.

[TheNetsFan]

Take back the 2028 and 2029 picks and it would be a deal we might have to make. But, 4 picks, NO!

We can't mortgage our PRESENT and FUTURE with a 33 year old Dame. I would be okay if it were 2 of the picks in 2025 and maybe a 2026 pick of some sort.

Agreed. Nets have to hang onto the later PHX picks at minimum. Nets have 11 tradeable 1sts. No need to send them all the premium ones.

Heck, I'd rather send one of the Nets own future picks than PHX '29 pick.

They had 11 first over 7 years. 2 were just used, though draft rights can still be traded. Not all 11 were tradable.

We can now trade:
The draft rights of Clowney & Whitehead
1 2025 pick
2 2027 picks
1 2028 pick
2 2029 picks
1 2030 pick

[Netaman]

imo exhausting what could be valuable picks to build around Lillard for maybe a couple years and Bridges who has yet to make an all star team and was considered a 3&D role player this time last year would not be ideal. It would be far from it.

I also don't think a team with Dame as your best player is an actual contender. You at least need someone as good or better imo

ok but they'd have means to get another player. they have 11 future picks they can trade, and the bold above features a big qualifier. whatever picks they trade for lillard or anyone else could end up no different than last night's picks also.

it sounds like lac may be starting to listen on pg3. mitchell could hit the market again. KAT. who knows what any of those teams do at the deadline if they aren't having good seasons.

and next year simmons is a $40m expiring who can salary match almost anyone in the NBA. lillard and bridges (and likely cam j) would be under contract for 4 years together. if we get lillard we will have averaged 1.5 superstar trades per year for the last 3 years lol.

with what though? The Suns picks are the most valuable picks the team has which are outgoing.

The Sixers pick is protected and the Mavs pick while there is potential is meh as long as they have Luka. I don't think those two picks even return a high level starter on a long term contract. Unless the team further trades more of its picks and decides not to have control of its picks for a decade plus I don't think there'd be a way to add a player just as good or better than Lillard.

This is my own calculus on the value of picks nets own based on time horizon, upside, etc.

Most valuable = Suns 2027 (nearest term unprotected pick with lotto potential)
Slightly less = Suns 2029, Mavs 2029, nets 2028, nets 2029
Slightly less = Suns 2028 swap, Philly 2027, Phoenix 2025, *Nets 2025 + 2027 (Hou swap rights)

The first 5 are far out but fully unprotected so they have a real chance to end up lotto picks. If I am betting on 4+ seasons from now, KD is definitely no longer factoring with the Suns and it's probably at best 50/50 Booker or Luka are still where they are now. if you are portland trading the nets Lillard, you are also betting he too is no longer a factor by the 2028/2029 nets picks.

The 2028 phoenix swap could be just as valuable but since it's a swap not an extra pick I knocked it down in value.

Philly 2027 has a thin needle to thread to get into lotto. it's top 8 protected so there are just 6 lotto spots it's eligible for. if the likelihood of every slot is = that's a 20% chance of landing in one of those picks. so that one is more than 50% likely to be a mediocre pick and more likely to be kicked off into the future if it lands top 8 than be in that goldilocks zone.

Phoenix should be a playoff team in 2025. The Nets with Lillard probably aren't swapping with houston 2025 or 2027, so those are probably non-lotto picks and if they aren't then Houston has the swap rights.

i wouldn't be opposed to trading any of those picks because all have so much future variance, so it all comes down to it being fair value.

I'd hope to get him for less but i think all the remaining phoenix picks are probably a fair deal that beats whatever Miami can offer. nets would still have mavs 2029 and philly 2027 - which as soon as they get lillard and flip back to trying to compete would become pure trade assets. they'd have just 2 of their own outgoing picks left to send to Houston (2024/2026) plus the 2 swaps, so overall they have pretty close to neutral draft capital. and remember they just made 2 upside picks this year so they already got 1 pick paid from phoenix. with lillard their own 2024 pick wouldn't hold much value in a trade so there may be an argument they have better than neutral picks to deal from.

so net/net if you trade the remaining phoenix picks, you would have ammo to make a follow-up deal with philly 27, dallas 29, 1 of the nets distant firsts, and swaps - which i think could probably get you a very good player because there are 2 good unprotected picks in the package. if the player makes under 18m they could offer the trading team full salary relief accepting into the KD TE. if the player makes more they would match with Simmons, and his contract/Lillard's age effectively give you an 18 month window to find the right guy to make that deal.

[TheNetsFan]

ok but they'd have means to get another player. they have 11 future picks they can trade, and the bold above features a big qualifier. whatever picks they trade for lillard or anyone else could end up no different than last night's picks also.

it sounds like lac may be starting to listen on pg3. mitchell could hit the market again. KAT. who knows what any of those teams do at the deadline if they aren't having good seasons.

and next year simmons is a $40m expiring who can salary match almost anyone in the NBA. lillard and bridges (and likely cam j) would be under contract for 4 years together. if we get lillard we will have averaged 1.5 superstar trades per year for the last 3 years lol.

with what though? The Suns picks are the most valuable picks the team has which are outgoing.

The Sixers pick is protected and the Mavs pick while there is potential is meh as long as they have Luka. I don't think those two picks even return a high level starter on a long term contract. Unless the team further trades more of its picks and decides not to have control of its picks for a decade plus I don't think there'd be a way to add a player just as good or better than Lillard.

This is my own calculus on the value of picks nets own based on time horizon, upside, etc.

Most valuable = Suns 2027 (nearest term unprotected pick with lotto potential)
Slightly less = Suns 2029, Mavs 2029, nets 2028, nets 2029
Slightly less = Suns 2028 swap, Philly 2027, Phoenix 2025, *Nets 2025 + 2027 (Hou swap rights)

The first 5 are far out but fully unprotected so they have a real chance to end up lotto picks. If I am betting on 4+ seasons from now, KD is definitely no longer factoring with the Suns and it's probably at best 50/50 Booker or Luka are still where they are now. if you are portland trading the nets Lillard, you are also betting he too is no longer a factor by the 2028/2029 nets picks.

The 2028 phoenix swap could be just as valuable but since it's a swap not an extra pick I knocked it down in value.

Philly 2027 has a thin needle to thread to get into lotto. it's top 8 protected so there are just 6 lotto spots it's eligible for. if the likelihood of every slot is = that's a 20% chance of landing in one of those picks. so that one is more than 50% likely to be a mediocre pick and more likely to be kicked off into the future if it lands top 8 than be in that goldilocks zone.

Phoenix should be a playoff team in 2025. The Nets with Lillard probably aren't swapping with houston 2025 or 2027, so those are probably non-lotto picks and if they aren't then Houston has the swap rights.

i wouldn't be opposed to trading any of those picks because all have so much future variance, so it all comes down to it being fair value.

I'd hope to get him for less but i think all the remaining phoenix picks are probably a fair deal that beats whatever Miami can offer. nets would still have mavs 2029 and philly 2027 - which as soon as they get lillard and flip back to trying to compete would become pure trade assets. they'd have just 2 of their own outgoing picks left to send to Houston (2024/2026) plus the 2 swaps, so overall they have pretty close to neutral draft capital. and remember they just made 2 upside picks this year so they already got 1 pick paid from phoenix. with lillard their own 2024 pick wouldn't hold much value in a trade so there may be an argument they have better than neutral picks to deal from.

so net/net if you trade the remaining phoenix picks, you would have ammo to make a follow-up deal with philly 27, dallas 29, 1 of the nets distant firsts, and swaps - which i think could probably get you a very good player because there are 2 good unprotected picks in the package. if the player makes under 18m they could offer the trading team full salary relief accepting into the KD TE. if the player makes more they would match with Simmons, and his contract/Lillard's age effectively give you an 18 month window to find the right guy to make that deal.

I think you underrate the 2025 Phoenix pick. There is a fairly strong possibility that things implode over there, and they have no ability to retool. Beal & his no trade clause returned trash now, it will return trash again if Phoenix tried to move him. 36/37 year old KD won't return a ton. If things go south, Booker may end up forcing his way out.

[Netaman]

I think you underrate the 2025 Phoenix pick. There is a fairly strong possibility that things implode over there, and they have no ability to retool. Beal & his no trade clause returned trash now, it will return trash again if Phoenix tried to move him. 36/37 year old KD won't return a ton. If things go south, Booker may end up forcing his way out.

Maybe but that pick is based on how Phoenix does in standings next season (not this season, the following '24-25 year).

I don't see things blowing up by then unless there's a catastrophic injury. Booker is going to extend, KD, Beal, Ayton are under contract. That team is very unlikely to under .500 this year or the following.

[Tha King]

with what though? The Suns picks are the most valuable picks the team has which are outgoing.

The Sixers pick is protected and the Mavs pick while there is potential is meh as long as they have Luka. I don't think those two picks even return a high level starter on a long term contract. Unless the team further trades more of its picks and decides not to have control of its picks for a decade plus I don't think there'd be a way to add a player just as good or better than Lillard.

This is my own calculus on the value of picks nets own based on time horizon, upside, etc.

Most valuable = Suns 2027 (nearest term unprotected pick with lotto potential)
Slightly less = Suns 2029, Mavs 2029, nets 2028, nets 2029
Slightly less = Suns 2028 swap, Philly 2027, Phoenix 2025, *Nets 2025 + 2027 (Hou swap rights)

The first 5 are far out but fully unprotected so they have a real chance to end up lotto picks. If I am betting on 4+ seasons from now, KD is definitely no longer factoring with the Suns and it's probably at best 50/50 Booker or Luka are still where they are now. if you are portland trading the nets Lillard, you are also betting he too is no longer a factor by the 2028/2029 nets picks.

The 2028 phoenix swap could be just as valuable but since it's a swap not an extra pick I knocked it down in value.

Philly 2027 has a thin needle to thread to get into lotto. it's top 8 protected so there are just 6 lotto spots it's eligible for. if the likelihood of every slot is = that's a 20% chance of landing in one of those picks. so that one is more than 50% likely to be a mediocre pick and more likely to be kicked off into the future if it lands top 8 than be in that goldilocks zone.

Phoenix should be a playoff team in 2025. The Nets with Lillard probably aren't swapping with houston 2025 or 2027, so those are probably non-lotto picks and if they aren't then Houston has the swap rights.

i wouldn't be opposed to trading any of those picks because all have so much future variance, so it all comes down to it being fair value.

I'd hope to get him for less but i think all the remaining phoenix picks are probably a fair deal that beats whatever Miami can offer. nets would still have mavs 2029 and philly 2027 - which as soon as they get lillard and flip back to trying to compete would become pure trade assets. they'd have just 2 of their own outgoing picks left to send to Houston (2024/2026) plus the 2 swaps, so overall they have pretty close to neutral draft capital. and remember they just made 2 upside picks this year so they already got 1 pick paid from phoenix. with lillard their own 2024 pick wouldn't hold much value in a trade so there may be an argument they have better than neutral picks to deal from.

so net/net if you trade the remaining phoenix picks, you would have ammo to make a follow-up deal with philly 27, dallas 29, 1 of the nets distant firsts, and swaps - which i think could probably get you a very good player because there are 2 good unprotected picks in the package. if the player makes under 18m they could offer the trading team full salary relief accepting into the KD TE. if the player makes more they would match with Simmons, and his contract/Lillard's age effectively give you an 18 month window to find the right guy to make that deal.

I think you underrate the 2025 Phoenix pick. There is a fairly strong possibility that things implode over there, and they have no ability to retool. Beal & his no trade clause returned trash now, it will return trash again if Phoenix tried to move him. 36/37 year old KD won't return a ton. If things go south, Booker may end up forcing his way out.

ALL of the Suns picks could be quite good. KD is on a clear decline and barely plays in the RS. More importantly, even though Booker had a great playoff run I don't think he's the elite player he's considered to be. They really have very limited ways of improving when you consider Ayton on a max contract is not returning a ton and they have no pick control for a decade. Not even factoring the new CBA and resulting impact it could have.

IMO you don't throw that away so you can place your hopes on the shoulders of a player towards the end of his career that's never been elite elite (i.e. Bron, KD, Kawhi).

[Netaman]

IMO you don't throw that away so you can place your hopes on the shoulders of a player towards the end of his career that's never been elite elite (i.e. Bron, KD, Kawhi).

devil's advocate on this particular point, the heat just went to the finals on the shoulders of a same aged player that's never been elite elite. the east is not very strong right now and the elite elites other than jokic/giannis are all getting close to the end of the road.

[JKiddy]

I think the Suns 2025 pick will be around 20th. But, I think there will be a huge fall off in production for that team come 2026 when all of those picks the next 4 seasons will be lottery tickets (except maybe one year).

KD will not hold up by 2026-27 well. Beal will likely be gone by then. I think Ayton will be moved after this season for more depth. The team will have 2 years of a good run starting now.

[Tha King]

IMO you don't throw that away so you can place your hopes on the shoulders of a player towards the end of his career that's never been elite elite (i.e. Bron, KD, Kawhi).

devil's advocate on this particular point, the heat just went to the finals on the shoulders of a same aged player that's never been elite elite. the east is not very strong right now and the elite elites other than jokic/giannis are all getting close to the end of the road.

fair point, although imo Butler is better.

Here's the thing though, the Heat are an anomaly. Not only are they a pure exception led by one of the greatest coaches ever with established continuity, they were clearly levels below the Nuggets and showed they still need another elite player on the level of Butler (i..e Lillard) to compete.

I think if it were a player like Luka or even a high level all star like Trae who you can build a roster around for the next several years, then trade all these picks considering our pick situation. But for Dame? Maybe two years before a decline, if that? I just think that could look funny really quickly.

[Tha King]

I think the Suns 2025 pick will be around 20th. But, I think there will be a huge fall off in production for that team come 2026 when all of those picks the next 4 seasons will be lottery tickets (except maybe one year).

KD will not hold up by 2026-27 well. Beal will likely be gone by then. I think Ayton will be moved after this season for more depth. The team will have 2 years of a good run starting now.

They can have a good team on paper and still produce a very good pick considering KD and the regular season has barely been a thing.

Booker hasn't shown he can lead a great team yet. They only started winning when CP3 - one of the greatest floor raisers ever - got there. Bridges also had underrated impact.

[Netaman]

IMO you don't throw that away so you can place your hopes on the shoulders of a player towards the end of his career that's never been elite elite (i.e. Bron, KD, Kawhi).

devil's advocate on this particular point, the heat just went to the finals on the shoulders of a same aged player that's never been elite elite. the east is not very strong right now and the elite elites other than jokic/giannis are all getting close to the end of the road.

fair point, although imo Butler is better.

Here's the thing though, the Heat are an anomaly. Not only are they a pure exception led by one of the greatest coaches ever with established continuity, they were clearly levels below the Nuggets and showed they still need another elite player on the level of Butler (i..e Lillard) to compete.

I think if it were a player like Luka or even a high level all star like Trae who you can build a roster around for the next several years, then trade all these picks considering our pick situation. But for Dame? Maybe two years before a decline, if that? I just think that could look funny really quickly.

Seeing how long cp3, Nash, Kidd, now Steph, maybe I’m wrong but I don’t have too many concerns about Lillard remaining a good pg from his age 33-36. Will he be elite the whole time? Probably not, but I don’t have any more concern with him over the next 4 years as FVV or Kyrie (a lot less than Kyrie obviously).

Again I think you can add Lillard accepting that he makes the team a lot better even if he’s not playing at an elite mvp level. I think kidd was 31 or 32 when we got him. Build a good team and hope that everything comes together in 1 of the 4 years. Neither Boston 2 years ago and Miami last year were the favorites at the beginning of the year.

On the court Lillard is a better add than jaylen brown, who will probably extend but would otherwise be everyone’s top target for a trade. Age is real but it’s not impossible Lillard is still the better player for most of the next 4 years.


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