The Summit (Where Will They Go?)

[SpeedyG]

I've been thinking about this whole "summit" thing, and it's really gotten me interested and wanting to get into the heads of these players to get a peak at what they are thinking. First off, this is not about whether there will be a summit or not. Whether these guys are in one room, one building, or simply texting each other, they WILL talk and discuss their options. With that being said, I think these players will realize, once they start talking, that it is going to be incredibly difficult to decide each other's fate. So, naturally, I'll try and first break it down individually, starting with Lebron.

1- Lebron is the key, the catalyst of the 2010 FA Class. With Chicago, Miami, NY, and NJ all having the cap space to sign him, he will be the guy that can set off the chain reaction. He's also the guy who will have to make the most difficult decision. One, because it is going to be incredibly, incredibly tough for him to leave Ohio. Say what you want about sports, but a great legacy is one of the most difficult things to obtain AND protect by a player. And James' legacy, whether right or wrong, will take a hit by him leaving Cleveland. This is a team that has struggled for so long, and has suffered many bad breaks, and finally "lucked" into getting their savior, and even better, he's from the state of Ohio. You really can't write it any better than that. But at the same time, I think if you're Lebron and you really care about winning, you can't help but look at what you have around you as a Cav and think that you have enough there to win, and win consistently, and win in the long run.

2- Wade. By all indications, I think Wade is most likely to stay in Miami. He likes the place, the place likes him, and unlike James and the Cavs, the Heat actually have the cap space to improve their team, and quick. If not Miami, I think it's Chicago who has the best chance at Wade, should he decide to leave.

3- Bosh. I think Bosh will be the most likely to pair up with another player. He's played with both Lebron and Wade, and his game works well with either one. And unlike Amare, he doesn't have a past history with Joe Johnson. I also think he'd like to leave Toronto, as much like the Cavs, that team is saddled up with bad contracts on bad players.

4- Amare. He has some options. Phoenix says they want to retain him, but who knows what Amare's thinking knowing that they've tried to trade him 1000x. That and the fact that it's only other star probably has two years max at being a top 10-20 player caliber. Nets seem to like him, Chicago and NY does too, but Miami seems to be lukewarm on him, with reports saying they'd consider Boozer over him first (smokescreen!?!?)

5- Johnson. Talk about a guy losing money. Of all these guys, it is Joe that took the biggest hit reputation wise. Last off-season, he was knocking down dagger after dagger against Boston, looking like a borderline #1 scoring option (or an elite #2). But after his performance this off-season, he's been knocked down a peg, where most think he's a very good #2...and that's it.

There's a few more that I'm not going to get into detail with, mainly because I think these guys will have to wait their turn until the top 5 makes their decision, simply because I don't think any team will be foolish enough to run at these guys without knowing where the other 5 will go first. So now, here's where things get interesting:

As we know, New York, Chicago, Miami, and New Jersey are the ones being rumored the most as far as likely destinations of the top 5 (not including their own teams). Here's the problem...all four of those teams are in the east, two of which are in the same division, and possibly another if Lebron stays in Cleveland (with Chicago) or Toronto (if Bosh stays). So, the obvious dilemma is, should they decide to split and pair up, can you imagine the road to the Finals that each of them will have to go through?!?! It is going to be one tough, TOUGH road.

More to come...will give my thoughts on team breakdown soon...

[Jersey Generals]

Wade will be the last one to sign, I think. If Bosh goes to either the Bulls or the Knicks, or gets traded to the Rockets/Lakers/whoever, and Lebron stays in Cleveland, and Amare goes to the Knicks, I think he'll seriously question whether the Heat can get better. They could sign Boozer and whoever else, maybe Joe Johnson, but I think he'll start to peak around at his other options. Still, I see re-signing with the Heat, but I don't think it'll be right off the bat: I think he'll wait it out.

[vincecarter4pres]

I can feel demens blood pressure rising from here...

[ecuhus1981]

James - NJN - 5 years, max (you gotta believe!)
Wade - MIA - 6 years, max
Bosh - HOU (S&T) - 6 years, max
Nowitzki - DAL - 4 years, $90mil
Stoudemire - MIA - 6 years, max
Johnson - NYK - 5 years, max
Boozer - CHI - 5 years, $72mil
Pierce - BOS - 4 years, $46mil
Gay - LAC - 5 years, $67mil
Lee - NJN - 6 years, $70mil
Allen - BOS - 3 years, $27mil (3rd year TO)
Haywood - DAL - 5 years, $42mil (5th year unguaranteed)
Scola - TOR (S&T) - 4 years, $31mil

[Preludepunk27]

^^^^

Call me ignorant, but if Lebron comes to this area, I really think he's gonna be a Net.

But in your list, the Knicks only get one big free agent?

[ecuhus1981]

But in your list, the Knicks only get one big free agent?

Yep. I can see them courting a pair of FAs, but even if they got Wade and Bosh, a Douglas-Wade-Chandler-Gallo-Bosh lineup wouldn't truly contend. Playoff team, sure, but once again Dwyane would be the best post defender on his team. And with the HOU trade that opened up so much capspace, they have very little opportunity to add quality prospects to this core over the next 3 years. Joe Johnson WILL follow the money, and I think NYK is the only place that won't blink at offering him the max (remember, as a 10+ year veteran, Joe's max is different than LeBron's, who is in the 7-10 year category).

They will try to keep Lee, but:

a) IF they hold his rights, all they can do is match an offer. Unlike restricted FA, where you can match and then you own the player, then NYK matches, it's still up to Lee what he wants to do. If he chooses, he can walk, and I think he'd rather go to a team that has a franchise PG and C, so he can play PF full-time and have someone create scoring opportunities for him.

b) IF they want to even try to go after two max FAs, they MUST renounce David's Bird rights. I think they'll go this route.

The other alternative is to S&T him for Tony Parker, as the rumor goes. Of course, it's still David's choice to play a part in an S&T...

[demens]

I can feel demens blood pressure rising from here...

It was when i saw the title, but the 1st post calmed me down, its just too long. I'll read it some other time.

And btw, there is no summit.

[enetric]

I've been thinking about this whole "summit" thing, and it's really gotten me interested and wanting to get into the heads of these players to get a peak at what they are thinking. First off, this is not about whether there will be a summit or not. Whether these guys are in one room, one building, or simply texting each other, they WILL talk and discuss their options. With that being said, I think these players will realize, once they start talking, that it is going to be incredibly difficult to decide each other's fate. So, naturally, I'll try and first break it down individually, starting with Lebron.

1- Lebron is the key, the catalyst of the 2010 FA Class. With Chicago, Miami, NY, and NJ all having the cap space to sign him, he will be the guy that can set off the chain reaction. He's also the guy who will have to make the most difficult decision. One, because it is going to be incredibly, incredibly tough for him to leave Ohio. Say what you want about sports, but a great legacy is one of the most difficult things to obtain AND protect by a player. And James' legacy, whether right or wrong, will take a hit by him leaving Cleveland. This is a team that has struggled for so long, and has suffered many bad breaks, and finally "lucked" into getting their savior, and even better, he's from the state of Ohio. You really can't write it any better than that. But at the same time, I think if you're Lebron and you really care about winning, you can't help but look at what you have around you as a Cav and think that you have enough there to win, and win consistently, and win in the long run.

2- Wade. By all indications, I think Wade is most likely to stay in Miami. He likes the place, the place likes him, and unlike James and the Cavs, the Heat actually have the cap space to improve their team, and quick. If not Miami, I think it's Chicago who has the best chance at Wade, should he decide to leave.

3- Bosh. I think Bosh will be the most likely to pair up with another player. He's played with both Lebron and Wade, and his game works well with either one. And unlike Amare, he doesn't have a past history with Joe Johnson. I also think he'd like to leave Toronto, as much like the Cavs, that team is saddled up with bad contracts on bad players.

4- Amare. He has some options. Phoenix says they want to retain him, but who knows what Amare's thinking knowing that they've tried to trade him 1000x. That and the fact that it's only other star probably has two years max at being a top 10-20 player caliber. Nets seem to like him, Chicago and NY does too, but Miami seems to be lukewarm on him, with reports saying they'd consider Boozer over him first (smokescreen!?!?)

5- Johnson. Talk about a guy losing money. Of all these guys, it is Joe that took the biggest hit reputation wise. Last off-season, he was knocking down dagger after dagger against Boston, looking like a borderline #1 scoring option (or an elite #2). But after his performance this off-season, he's been knocked down a peg, where most think he's a very good #2...and that's it.

There's a few more that I'm not going to get into detail with, mainly because I think these guys will have to wait their turn until the top 5 makes their decision, simply because I don't think any team will be foolish enough to run at these guys without knowing where the other 5 will go first. So now, here's where things get interesting:

As we know, New York, Chicago, Miami, and New Jersey are the ones being rumored the most as far as likely destinations of the top 5 (not including their own teams). Here's the problem...all four of those teams are in the east, two of which are in the same division, and possibly another if Lebron stays in Cleveland (with Chicago) or Toronto (if Bosh stays). So, the obvious dilemma is, should they decide to split and pair up, can you imagine the road to the Finals that each of them will have to go through?!?! It is going to be one tough, TOUGH road.

More to come...will give my thoughts on team breakdown soon...

Great job Speedy..I agred with most of it. Some comments

Lebron. Sure legacy is affected by moving. But you know what fixes that? WINNING. Worked out fine for Shaq. I believe he should leave the Cavs looking at their contracts. I believe the Bulls and the Nets are the only teams he should be looking at if he wants a winner built around him. Not joining someone elses proven team, not JUST going for market...but the big picture with market. Cant see the Clips no way no how, following Wade into Miami, or a Knicks team that has motrgaged its future in the draft, and will have to add 6 guys making less than 500K per.

I had Wade in the same two cities. After hearing what he said about the Bulls? Cross them off. OUCH. I think he will be in Miami. My only "if" option for him....go with Lebron. But he will go no where that he is the top guy OUT of Miami is my guess.

Bosh. I have this funny feeling that Bosh is going to hold out for an S&T deal and not put winning as his primary issue. How to get both? S&T to the Lakers with Bynum as a starting point. Would work for both team no problem. Knicks for Lee if Lee will go to Toronto and doesnt have a better offer also something I see as possible. Just my gut that while he should pair with one of the top two...he has other plans.

Amare is going to come down to cash. I think the Suns will cave and give him the extension he wants. If not? Amare will find a deal. Us, the Heat, Knicks, Bulls...someone is going to pay for his name and talent. Personally as good as he is..I might prefer to go for Lee or Boozer for less and let other duke it out to overpay him....that is of course with us still getting the prime objective Lebron at the max. then keep Devin, move out Humphries, Yi and CDR or the #27 pick and get the 12-13 cap space for one of these other guys. I still draft Favors and groom him. Cant have enough quality big men in this game.

I do not see JJ moving teams. He will get overpaid by thre Hawks take his extra year and be very happy. He is on a get deep into the playoffs team now with some young upside talent. Why leave for less security at age 29? What's more at age 29 I dont want to give him that max deal to come to our team. Not interested. Let the Knicks feel the pressure of getting left at the alter and over pay him. Would be thrilled.

Already spoke to Lee and Boozer who if I can have them for less and keep Devin now that we didnt get Wall...works very nicely for me. I am all about talent value per dollar. Especially when you are no where near contending. Value ever dollar of your cap space. Bosh to me is the only big worth a max contract other than Dirk among potential free agents. And I do not see Dirk leaving Dallas do you? And if he were to leave isnt he entitled to a larger max contract than the rest of these guys based on years of service?

Lebron, plus Lee or Boozer...keep the #3 pick, keep Devin create cap room from ditching Yi for a future #1, Humphries for a #2 and, if Cdr has to go away too...or the #27 pick for a bit more so be it.

Take the best player on the board, Turner or Favors...

Go after Lebron, and one of the bigs mentioned.

Harris
Lee/Twill
Lebron
D.Lee or Boozer (not for max)
Lopez
--------
#3 pick
Either #27 or CDR
#31
2nd rounder for Humphries if this year


That is a great young team that to me FITS together and makes cap sense. Also shuts up the two max argument blahh blah blah.

On a side note...really sticks it to the Knicks. Can you see the headlines? They wouldnt be able to get Lebron, keep their fan fav player, and lose the ability to use him for an S&T.

[ecuhus1981]

I don't understand why LeBron James is looked down upon for leaving money on the table to test FA, but people revere Kobe for his lifelong-Laker status. It seems more honorable to opt out of a deal and play the field than pout about your team, publicly ridicule your teammates and demand a trade.

Also, the Hawks will not make a hard run at Joe Johnson, enetric. They've decided that a long time ago. Besides, he's UFA, so it's not as though they can match and it's over. Joe wants to jump fence, even if Atlanta weren't concerned about extending him with a fat deal. The fact that they are, though, should serve as a caution to other teams, as with the Amar'e situation. I see both of those players breaking down halfway into their next deals. Now, if we whiffed on LBJ, Wade and Bosh, would I be upset if we signed Amar'e and/or Joe? Heck no. But my choice would be to avoid them if other, younger, cheaper, healthier options (Gay, Lee) avail themselves.

[mikhailjordan]

Lebron, not just... Survey field. Lebron toy with fans. Act like... Douchebag. All time.

Lebron dunked on in own house. Hide video. Now he want to be on, all video.

Kobe, Bryant. He whine, pout, win. Lebron whine, pout no win.

Kobe Bryant, all. Day.

[enetric]

I don't understand why LeBron James is looked down upon for leaving money on the table to test FA, but people revere Kobe for his lifelong-Laker status. It seems more honorable to opt out of a deal and play the field than pout about your team, publicly ridicule your teammates and demand a trade.

Also, the Hawks will not make a hard run at Joe Johnson, enetric. They've decided that a long time ago. Besides, he's UFA, so it's not as though they can match and it's over. Joe wants to jump fence, even if Atlanta weren't concerned about extending him with a fat deal. The fact that they are, though, should serve as a caution to other teams, as with the Amar'e situation. I see both of those players breaking down halfway into their next deals. Now, if we whiffed on LBJ, Wade and Bosh, would I be upset if we signed Amar'e and/or Joe? Heck no. But my choice would be to avoid them if other, younger, cheaper, healthier options (Gay, Lee) avail themselves.

I dont either. I think its all a lot of fluff people will forget about if he wins titles elsewhere. Do you hear people talking about how Shaq screwed the Magic? As for Kobe...there is nothing to revere. How quickly people forget his meltdown that the Lakers wouldnt deal Bynum for Kidd and he was caught on tape dissing the Lakers that he would demand a trade. Had the Grizz not made that absud Pau trade...we would have looked at a very different Kobe. Lets not forget he is the same punk ass who also manipulated his way to the Lakers on draft day. The bottom line is...Kobe is a great player who has been fortunate to play on great teams. There are many who overate his place in history but there is no denying he is an elite player. Elite person? Better guy? Made better choices...(cough Denver)....absolutely not. Kobe is far from a saint and he is far from being the sdecond best player to ever play or anything close to MJ. He has won. And winning trumps all in sports. Its what makes these qualified arguments...these silly take on things.

As for JJ...I agree about the potential brekadown issues. That is where I was going with the 29 years of age issue. he is overrated to begin with. Add age..absolutely I wouldnt over pay him. But I think you missed my point. I think he will stay with the Hawks anyway. Not because they will chase him. Because I think they will give him the best offer with the extra year advantage. The Knicks are the one team I could see being stupid and the Hawks saying OK see ya. But in the end I think the extra year for him will matter. No idea what year one of that deal will look like until the market is set and teams decide how desperate they are. So? i think his best option will end up in Atlanta anyway was my point.

Also, want to speak to Rudy Gay since his name keeps coming up and for the life of me I cant see why. I am fan of the player but why are we even discussing a restrcited guy? Wont over pay for him either. And I do not want to tie up cap space waiting for the Grizz to decide. I would be looking at the top 3 guys for max deals. After that, looking to get one of the other guys on less than max on a good value per talent deal. And stop. Since those others guy are 2's and 4's...if Lebron doesnt come...just sign the one guy for the 12-13 mil if you can get him.

With the second year raise, god willing the CBA issue wont comepletely screw us...go after one of the other top tier SF's next seeason. But I am not for over paying anyone just to say we got a guy. If we get no one...rather than over paying to get someone? I will happier with that.

I want the big splash...but no spash and patience through draft building is better than taking on a dumb contract.

[Jersey Generals]

Lebron, not just... Survey field. Lebron toy with fans. Act like... Douchebag. All time.

Lebron dunked on in own house. Hide video. Now he want to be on, all video.

Kobe, Bryant. He whine, pout, win. Lebron whine, pout no win.

Kobe Bryant, all. Day.

How do you feel about Yi?

[jeff1624]

Lebron, not just... Survey field. Lebron toy with fans. Act like... Douchebag. All time.

Lebron dunked on in own house. Hide video. Now he want to be on, all video.

Kobe, Bryant. He whine, pout, win. Lebron whine, pout no win.

Kobe Bryant, all. Day.

I'm getting this vibe from you... hmmm..

[vincecarter4pres]

Lebron, not just... Survey field. Lebron toy with fans. Act like... Douchebag. All time.

Lebron dunked on in own house. Hide video. Now he want to be on, all video.

Kobe, Bryant. He whine, pout, win. Lebron whine, pout no win.

Kobe Bryant, all. Day.

I'm getting this vibe from you... hmmm..

I think we're thinking the same thing on this one...

[Jersey Generals]

I think we're thinking the same thing on this one...

Oh, come on! I've been leading that wagon since he's got here.



Anyway, I was thinking: If Bosh goes to New York with Lebron, and Amare goes to Chicago, and let's say Boozer comes here, what does Wade do then? I mean, I guess Chicago doesn't blow their cap space until he's signed, but what if he doesn't want to go to Chicago and he tells them that? Literally, putting all your hopes into free agency like the Heat did is risky.

[vincecarter4pres]

I would love Wade to come here. I wonder the same. What if he is left with like Rudy Gay, maybe Joe Johnson and David Lee to sign in Miami(and only 2 of the 3)? Does he stay for the extra year and almost 30 million on a mediocre team that has very little chance of truly contending, or does he give Jersey/Brooklyn some serious thought?

[jeff1624]

I would love it if it were to come to that, but, no team is gonna offer Amare a max deal before they do Wade.

Lets say the Knicks sign both Lebron and Bosh. You still have Chicago who would be more than happy to throw money at Wade. He's not gonna publicly decline the offer even if he doesn't have any intentions of signing with them. Why would he?? Since He won't decline the offer right away I doubt Chicago goes ahead and Sign Amare, since in there opinion they still have a shot at a top 5 player.

[Jersey Generals]

I would love it if it were to come to that, but, no team is gonna offer Amare a max deal before they do Wade.

Lets say the Knicks sign both Lebron and Bosh. You still have Chicago who would be more than happy to throw money at Wade. He's not gonna publicly decline the offer even if he doesn't have any intentions of signing with them. Why would he?? Since He won't decline the offer right away I doubt Chicago goes ahead and Sign Amare, since in there opinion they still have a shot at a top 5 player.

I disagree with that. If Wade came out and said, "I would never, ever go to Chicago," privately to them, I don't see Chicago risking losing Amare just to point to their fans and say, "he didn't want to come here, you see!" I think they'd rather have Amar'e, who brings some excitement, than missing out and getting David Lee/

[jeff1624]

That's the thing.. Wade is never gonna give away leverage like that. Even if he doesn't have any intentions of going to Chicago, he'll never say it publicly until he knows exactly what he's gonna do. He could use Chicago to force Miami's hand and make them after Amare and/or any other FA to pair up with.

[Jersey Generals]

That's the thing.. Wade is never gonna give away leverage like that. Even if he doesn't have any intentions of going to Chicago, he'll never say it publicly until he knows exactly what he's gonna do. He could use Chicago to force Miami's hand and make them after Amare and/or any other FA to pair up with.

Amare and all the others would be off the market in my hypothetical. He can only hold out for a few weeks before everyone that is someone is off the market. I completely understand what you're saying, trust me I know how agents think, but believe it or not, he doesn't have all that much power. Once Bosh and Lebron are off the market, he only has Amare to turn to (or Boozer, but in this hypothetical, he's gone too), meaning Miami then gets back all the leverage because either Wade leaves or he signs on with a mediocre Miami team.