TIM DUNCAN: FA Possibility?
Posted: Thu Jun 2, 2011 6:16 am
I was going over a little spreadsheet that I make each year, projecting how free agency will shake out among the top 10 players at each position. I divide it into Plan A, B and C, based on how time, priority, money and other factors influence teams and players.
Anyway, I was plugging away at work this evening, reviewing some of this in my head, and was unsatisfied with my Plan C for Tim Duncan. He has an ETO (early termination option) in his contract this summer, which means that IF he opts out on or before June 30th, he would be an UNrestricted free agent. This is key, because while San Antonio can match all offers with his Bird Rights, they would not automatically get to keep him just by matching. If he wanted to leave, it would be Tim's choice, and it wouldn't cost the team that signs him a thing!
I know it seems like a one-in-a-million long-shot that he would ever leave the Spurs, but if the Big Fundamental wants another ring, he might need a change of scenery, and a younger team around him. Why not us? We have the following points to sell:
-- the best pick-and-roll PG in the league to feed him easy scoring opportunities,
-- an elite 23yo C that Tim can mentor (as Mr. Robinson mentored him),
-- an owner that is committed to spend what it takes in order to win,
-- a coach that is one of Duncan's best friends,
-- an arena in the works that could be the best in the world, and
-- a metropolitan market that can cement his legacy
Of course, Tim is coming off of the worst season in his illustrious career from a statistical standpoint. At 35 years of age, it's unlikely to get any better. Still, you can't turn your nose up at 13/9/3/1/2, and his intangibles are some of the best in the league. If we can get him on a down-scaling 3-year contract (e.g. $12mil in '11-'12, $10.5mil in '12-'13, partially guaranteed $9mil in '13-'14), I'd say let's do it! What do YOU think? Would he be worth that kind of money to you? Is it a good, calculated risk? Does this sound like a pipe dream to you???
Anyway, I was plugging away at work this evening, reviewing some of this in my head, and was unsatisfied with my Plan C for Tim Duncan. He has an ETO (early termination option) in his contract this summer, which means that IF he opts out on or before June 30th, he would be an UNrestricted free agent. This is key, because while San Antonio can match all offers with his Bird Rights, they would not automatically get to keep him just by matching. If he wanted to leave, it would be Tim's choice, and it wouldn't cost the team that signs him a thing!
I know it seems like a one-in-a-million long-shot that he would ever leave the Spurs, but if the Big Fundamental wants another ring, he might need a change of scenery, and a younger team around him. Why not us? We have the following points to sell:
-- the best pick-and-roll PG in the league to feed him easy scoring opportunities,
-- an elite 23yo C that Tim can mentor (as Mr. Robinson mentored him),
-- an owner that is committed to spend what it takes in order to win,
-- a coach that is one of Duncan's best friends,
-- an arena in the works that could be the best in the world, and
-- a metropolitan market that can cement his legacy
Of course, Tim is coming off of the worst season in his illustrious career from a statistical standpoint. At 35 years of age, it's unlikely to get any better. Still, you can't turn your nose up at 13/9/3/1/2, and his intangibles are some of the best in the league. If we can get him on a down-scaling 3-year contract (e.g. $12mil in '11-'12, $10.5mil in '12-'13, partially guaranteed $9mil in '13-'14), I'd say let's do it! What do YOU think? Would he be worth that kind of money to you? Is it a good, calculated risk? Does this sound like a pipe dream to you???
To be honest, I just don't see anyway Duncan leaves. We're talking about an old school guy who has pretty much said he wants his tenure in the NBA to be linked with Greg Poppovich's. 