RealGM

Who's #16?

Need tiebreaker for vote and for nominees!

***Voting Deadline: Tuesday 9pm***

Top 25 Players Pt.II
1) LBJ
2) KD
3) CP3
4) D12
5) TD
6) Harden
7) Curry
8) Melo
9) Kobe
10) TP
--------------------------------
11) D-Wade
12) D-Will
13) Dirk
14) Westbrook
15) D-Rose


KG?



LMA?



Lopez?



Love?



M.Gasol?



Pierce?



KG -
LMA -
Lopez -
Love -
M.Gasol -
Pierce -


Nominees: Noah, Griffin, Kyrie, Hibbert

Votes by nykballa2k4 will count after Round 16

man, this is a weak pool of guys for #16.

Vote: KG
Nominate: Noah

Vote: Gasol, slightly over KG.

Nominate: Noah

Love

Griffin

Vote Love

Nominate Rondo

next rounds it's real!

Vote: Kevin Garnett
Nominate: Blake Griffin

IMO, this kind of shows how massively overrated Duncan is at #5...him and KG are essentially equal, there's really nothing that significantly separates the two as players.

therealbig3 wrote:IMO, this kind of shows how massively overrated Duncan is at #5...him and KG are essentially equal, there's really nothing that significantly separates the two as players.

The numbers say otherwise:

They essentially played the same amount of minutes per game. (Tim Duncan played roughly 26 more minutes the entire season if you discount the one more player game he had. Duncan played in 69 games, KG in 68)

Duncan (30.1 mpg) : 17.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 2.7 apg, 2.7 bpg 107 ORtg 95 DRtg (best in the league) 24.4 PER

Garnett (29.7 mpg): 14.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.3 apg, 0.9 bpg, 104 Ortg 99 Drtg 19.9 PER


I think Duncan is clearly the superior player. Probably high at #5, but he was without a doubt the best center in the league this past season so his ranking really isn't that big of a deal.

drza wrote:Vote: still no strong feeling, but I'll go with Curry
Nominate: Kevin Garnett

Since KG hasn't gotten any traction yet, I figured I'd post a small blurb on why I think he should rank this high.

1) He's still very arguably the best defensive player in the NBA. By the numbers he's had a very strong case for Defensive Player of the Year in at least two of the last three seasons, and last year was no exception as he once again was right at the top of the league in every +/- based defensive stat.

2) He still is much more productive than his narrative. In fact, his production over the past couple of years looks eerily similar to the player voted #5 on this list. Over the past 2 years, Garnett has played in one more regular season game than Duncan and averaged 1 more minute per game in the regular season. And while Duncan has better box score stats in the regular season over that span, KG tops him in the playoffs in both the boxes and +/-. To whit:

TD reg season '12, '13: 16.7 ppg on 54.4% TS, 9.5 rpg (2013 RAPM +4.2, 15th in league) in 29.2 mpg
KG reg season '12, '13: 15.2 ppg on 54.2% TS, 8.0 rpg (2013 RAPM +6.1, 3rd in league) in 30.4 mpg

TD playoffs '12, '13: 17.8 ppg, 52.6% TS, 9.9 rpg (on/off +/- of +9.8 per 48) in 34.2 mpg
KG playoffs '12, '13: 17.7 ppg, 54.4% TS, 11.1 rpg (on/off +/- of +28.5 per 48) in 36.5 mpg

Garnett isn't what he used to be, but he's still one of the best in the league.

And Garnett has been a part of a broken offense the last 2 years, while Duncan has been a part of one of the most efficient offenses the last 2 years...Duncan isn't even the best offensive player on the Spurs...he's 3rd if Manu is healthy.

In terms of skill and ability, Duncan doesn't really do much of anything better than KG...he's in a better system with some more talented players around him. Duncan probably still is the better low post scorer, but that's diminished pretty significantly to be honest and there's not much of a gap between the two...Duncan is the better rebounder, since KG's rebounding hasn't aged as well...but KG is the far better outside shooter, and is and has always been a better passer. Defensively, I think I'd honestly take KG as well...Duncan was great this past year, but he's not as mobile as KG, which is seriously important in terms of defending the PnR...Steph Curry probably doesn't go off as much against the Spurs if that was KG instead of Duncan, since Duncan had to play off him on the PnR, since he was too slow to keep up with him on the perimeter...not as big of a problem with KG.

Duncan's low post scoring ability has generally been why I give him a slight edge over KG in terms of their careers, but as of right now, with Duncan's low post scoring not really being all that great anymore (he was getting destroyed one on one against Bogut, Gasol, and Howard/Gasol), they're pretty much even to me. And the Spurs played at a higher pace than the Celtics...pace-adjusted to per 75 possessions this past regular season:

TD: 22.6 ppg, 12.6 rpg, 3.4 apg, 2.7 TOpg, 55.4% TS, 107 ORating

KG: 19.6 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 3.0 apg, 2.1 TOpg, 53.5% TS, 104 ORating

TD has slightly higher raw stats, slightly better offensive efficiency, but again, he is definitely in a better situation...he really relies on being spoonfed for a lot of his offense at this stage of his career, which Parker, Manu, and Pop's system provides for him...he's nowhere close to being able to anchor an offense by himself anymore. That efficiency would plummet if not for the wide open jumpers and layups he gets every game. KG actually had to co-anchor an offense with Pierce this past season, and actually did a fantastic job.

At minimum, there's no significant gap between the two, which suggests that TD at #5 means KG should probably have gone around #10. TD's on the same minutes restrictions as KG as well, so that can't really be a reason to drop KG either in comparison to TD.

I love TD, but I really think he's gotten overrated the past couple of years because of his stats...his stats would look very different if he was on our ISO-heavy team last year for example...he would have struggled imo. I don't even think he's the one on one scorer that Lopez is at this point. He's a smarter player that passes better and sees the court better and reacts to defenses better....but as a pure scorer, which he would have had to be on an ISO-heavy offense, he's not on Lopez's level.

M. Gasol

Pierce

When comparing players, individual Drtg should not be thrown around as an all-encompassing measure of how good that defender is.

Individual DRTG is markedly influenced by the team's overall defensive efficiency and it also benefits guys who put up good defensive box score numbers:

Out of necessity (owing to a lack of defensive data in the basic boxscore), individual Defensive Ratings are heavily influenced by the team's defensive efficiency. They assume that all teammates are equally good (per minute) at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, as well as assuming that all teammates face the same number of total possessions per minute.

via http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

SAS had more capable team defenders and a better defensive system than BOS last year. That's reflected in the team's overall DRTG. Couple that with TD's high rebounding numbers (11.9 per 36) and good shot blocking numbers (3.2 per 36), and it helps to give him a very good DRTG of 95.

KG had a Drtg of 99 (BOS as a team had a Drtg of 103.3). Where he falls behind TD is in rebounding (8.1 per 36) and blocked shots (1.1 per 36). Both categories definitely contribute to his lower overall DRTG than TD's.

Now, I'm not trying to argue that TD is a bad or even average defender. I think he's a very good defender, but I also think that KG is just as good of a individual/team defender but in areas where the box score stats don't show it like they do for TD.

Personally, I've always preferred DRAPM because the individual DRAPM is based on a comparison between the performance of one player and the performance of his teammates who replace him when he's on the bench as well as the performance of the league average replacement player.

According to DRAPM, TD was 6.3, while KG was 5.9 (which makes way more sense than their respective DRTG ratings).
http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2013.html

DRAPM is not perfect, but it's definitely better than individual DRTG.

------------------------------------------

Just to dump on individual DRTG more, out of the top 20 individual DRTGs in the league (who played significant minutes) last year, Zach Randolph ranked 13th at 99.5, Reggie Evans ranked 14th at 99.6, and Carlos Boozer ranked 19th at 100.5

How many people really believe Randolph, our own Reggie Evans, and Boozer are some of the league's best defenders?

I'm sure Randolph's 13th overall ranking is heavily influenced by M.Gasol's 5th overall ranking of 98.5 and Boozer's 19th overall ranking is heavily influenced by Noah's 7th overall ranking of 100.5.

Ironically, Reggie Evans has no frontcourt counterpart that boosted his DRTG to 14th in the league. According to individual DRTG, Evans "anchored" our defense last year. (In all honesty, it was due to his high rebounding rate).

NyCeEvO wrote:When comparing players, individual Drtg should not be thrown around as an all-encompassing measure of how good that defender is.

Individual DRTG is markedly influenced by the team's overall defensive efficiency and it also benefits guys who put up good defensive box score numbers:

Out of necessity (owing to a lack of defensive data in the basic boxscore), individual Defensive Ratings are heavily influenced by the team's defensive efficiency. They assume that all teammates are equally good (per minute) at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, as well as assuming that all teammates face the same number of total possessions per minute.

via http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

SAS had more capable team defenders and a better defensive system than BOS last year. That's reflected in the team's overall DRTG. Couple that with TD's high rebounding numbers (11.9 per 36) and good shot blocking numbers (3.2 per 36), and it helps to give him a very good DRTG of 95.

KG had a Drtg of 99 (BOS as a team had a Drtg of 103.3). Where he falls behind TD is in rebounding (8.1 per 36) and blocked shots (1.1 per 36). Both categories definitely contribute to his lower overall DRTG than TD's.

Now, I'm not trying to argue that TD is a bad or even average defender. I think he's a very good defender, but I also think that KG is just as good of a individual/team defender but in areas where the box score stats don't show it like they do for TD.

Personally, I've always preferred DRAPM because the individual DRAPM is based on a comparison between the performance of one player and the performance of his teammates who replace him when he's on the bench as well as the performance of the league average replacement player.

According to DRAPM, TD was 6.3, while KG was 5.9 (which makes way more sense than their respective DRTG ratings).
http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2013.html

DRAPM is not perfect, but it's definitely better than individual DRTG.

------------------------------------------

Just to dump on individual DRTG more, out of the top 20 individual DRTGs in the league (who played significant minutes) last year, Zach Randolph ranked 13th at 99.5, Reggie Evans ranked 14th at 99.6, and Carlos Boozer ranked 19th at 100.5

How many people really believe Randolph, our own Reggie Evans, and Boozer are some of the league's best defenders?

I'm sure Randolph's 13th overall ranking is heavily influenced by M.Gasol's 5th overall ranking of 98.5 and Boozer's 19th overall ranking is heavily influenced by Noah's 7th overall ranking of 100.5.

Ironically, Reggie Evans has no frontcourt counterpart that boosted his DRTG to 14th in the league. According to individual DRTG, Evans "anchored" our defense last year. (In all honesty, it was due to his high rebounding rate).

say what you want about reggie evans, but he was scapegoated and overhated beyond belief last season. He was a solid role player for us inspite of being forced into an expanded role. And when criticized for overpassing or passing up gimmies, he turned around and started scoring more and converting at a much higher rate.

people simply refused to believe we were a soft team of heartless pansies. its funny now that we got KG/pierce i see alot more people acknowledging how soft we were last year and how those 2 will help. and i gaurantee reggie becomes a fan favorite here again like he was last november and december when he was playing like 10-12 mpg

That's nice and all, but that has nothing to do with what I was talking about.

I was showing how using a player's DRTG as an all-encompassing stat to measure how good a defender is not that good.

Reggie is a solid role player. He got a lot of heat because he was a role player given starter's minutes and was asked to do more than what he specializes in. I have no problem with Reggie and I'm sure he'll turn back into being a fan favorite.

However, (as it relates to what I was discussing) he's not the 13th best defender in the league. That's all I was saying.

Meh, was Reggie really overhated last year? He was a selfish statpadder that played no defense. How many balls going out of bounds off the other team did he recklessly go after in order to pad his rebounding? How many times did he get burned defensively because he wouldn't contest shots so that he would be in the best possible position to rebound? How many times did he fight off his own teammates for rebounds? How many times did he blow his defensive rotations?

The guy has a specialized role, to get under the skin of the opposing players and to rebound the hell out of the ball. But when he's getting 25+ mpg, and he's so frikin limited in every other aspect of the game, and he's selfish to boot, it becomes a problem. As I recall, the hate was directed much more towards PJ than Reggie for not recognizing how limited Reggie was. Reggie got hate when he would make stupid mistakes on the court that could have been easily avoided by a less selfish player. That's totally understandable.

therealbig3 wrote:Meh, was Reggie really overhated last year? He was a selfish statpadder that played no defense. How many balls going out of bounds off the other team did he recklessly go after in order to pad his rebounding? How many times did he get burned defensively because he wouldn't contest shots so that he would be in the best possible position to rebound? How many times did he fight off his own teammates for rebounds? How many times did he blow his defensive rotations?

He was EXTREMELY overhated. Played no defense? that is simply a ridiculous statement. He wasn't an elite defender, but he was at worst average defensively at his position. How many times did he go recklessly after rebounds to statpad? not nearly as often as everyone likes to state he did. How often did he fight teammates for rebounds? not enough for my liking. give me a guy who wont stop fighting until he has possession over guys who are lackadaisical and lazy and affraid to go hard after every single one.

for every possession reggie stat padded or made a blunder going after one too hard, he had 3 or 4 more where he ended up with a rebounded out of sheer hustle or gained us an extra possession on offense. the pluses FAR outweighed the negatives when it came to his stat padding vs. gaining possessions. He had an ELITE almost historical season rebounding the ball. you arent doing that without some stat padding, but the benefits far outweighed the negatives, especially with a horrid defensive rebounder next to him.

Reggie was absolutely a scapegoat for this team last year. Our floor spacing was blamed almost 100% on him, yet our offensive woes had a TON more to do with us being one of the worst half court passing teams in the league, wallaces inability to shoot, and our inability to score without it coming off the dribble(and often, 8-10 seconds of dribbling). Our offense and floor spacing didnt look any better with humphries or Mirza on the floor.

I know DRtg is a flawed stat and if you want you can ignore it... but the point still stands. While their defense are comparable, Duncan was still a vastly superior offensive player last season. Not only that but he was a much better rebounder and blocked three times as many shots despite playing the same amount of minutes.

I don't understand this whole "Duncan was spoon-fed" argument. KG is a spot up shooter that depends greatly on Rondo/Pierce giving him the ball in specific places/moments. I don't understand some of your arguments, TheRealBig, KG didn't play on an ISO heavy offense, he isn't an offensive anchor either, can't ISO for crap, his efficiency would plummet if HE wasn't getting wide open layups generated by other players etc. Duncan isn't Kevin Durant offensively, but he remains a more viable option than KG. Garnett will probably be our 5th option this season. Duncan would probably be our third.

In the playoffs:

Pau Gasol averaged 14 points a game on below average efficiency. Dwight Howard averaged 17 a game while turning the ball over 4 times a game. They were the ONLY options on that Lakers team with Nash in and out of the lineup throughout the playoffs and Kobe out with injury. One would think those two would have averaged 25+ with the increased shot attempts.

Boguts highest scoring game versus San Antonio was 11 and his team lost that game.

Marc Gasol shot .396% versus the spurs in the four game sweep. He averaged more shot attempts than points. Randolph shot .283% versus the spurs.

Not sure how any of those players "destroyed" Duncan.


....and no, Ginobili at this stage of his career is not a better offensive player than Duncan. Go rewatch this years playoffs if you actually think that.

DrazenForThree wrote:

therealbig3 wrote:Meh, was Reggie really overhated last year? He was a selfish statpadder that played no defense. How many balls going out of bounds off the other team did he recklessly go after in order to pad his rebounding? How many times did he get burned defensively because he wouldn't contest shots so that he would be in the best possible position to rebound? How many times did he fight off his own teammates for rebounds? How many times did he blow his defensive rotations?

He was EXTREMELY overhated. Played no defense? that is simply a ridiculous statement. He wasn't an elite defender, but he was at worst average defensively at his position. How many times did he go recklessly after rebounds to statpad? not nearly as often as everyone likes to state he did. How often did he fight teammates for rebounds? not enough for my liking. give me a guy who wont stop fighting until he has possession over guys who are lackadaisical and lazy and affraid to go hard after every single one.

for every possession reggie stat padded or made a blunder going after one too hard, he had 3 or 4 more where he ended up with a rebounded out of sheer hustle or gained us an extra possession on offense. the pluses FAR outweighed the negatives when it came to his stat padding vs. gaining possessions. He had an ELITE almost historical season rebounding the ball. you arent doing that without some stat padding, but the benefits far outweighed the negatives, especially with a horrid defensive rebounder next to him.

Reggie was absolutely a scapegoat for this team last year. Our floor spacing was blamed almost 100% on him, yet our offensive woes had a TON more to do with us being one of the worst half court passing teams in the league, wallaces inability to shoot, and our inability to score without it coming off the dribble(and often, 8-10 seconds of dribbling). Our offense and floor spacing didnt look any better with humphries or Mirza on the floor.

Reggie Evans was horrendous on defense last year. Easily ranks as one of the 5 worst pick and roll defenders of the last decade.

I was talking about Duncan offensively going up against those guys. He struggled outside of one great game against LA. He generally struggled over the course of the entire series against GS and Memphis. The only team he actually played well against was Miami, who had a joke of a front court.

KG and Duncan are both complementary offensive players at this point. KG's skills are more suited for that complementary role than Duncan. That's my point. If you're a big man that's not going to be a 1st or 2nd option in the offense, you probably want to have a good jump shot. KG's jumper is much better than Duncan's, and he has more range. You probably want to be a good passer. KG is a better passer than Duncan, although the gap is quite small. You also want to be a great defensive player. KG is just as good defensively as Duncan, if not better.

Duncan is a better low post scorer, but he's not good enough at this point where I'm really going to rely on that as a legitimate source of offense for a team (Duncan posting up is one of the last options of the Spurs offense), so it's really not all that relevant to be honest. Who's going to help a team more that already has some great offensive options? For my money, KG. And the Spurs offense is designed around setting screens and getting wide open looks. Duncan benefits hugely because of that. Boston's offense is gross to be honest, and doesn't generate nearly the same amount of open looks. Look at how many wide open midrange jumpers Duncan gets. KG doesn't get nearly that many.

And Manu was hurt last playoffs. Which is why I said a healthy Manu is a better offensive player than Duncan.

NyCeEvO wrote:When comparing players, individual Drtg should not be thrown around as an all-encompassing measure of how good that defender is.

Individual DRTG is markedly influenced by the team's overall defensive efficiency and it also benefits guys who put up good defensive box score numbers:

Out of necessity (owing to a lack of defensive data in the basic boxscore), individual Defensive Ratings are heavily influenced by the team's defensive efficiency. They assume that all teammates are equally good (per minute) at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, as well as assuming that all teammates face the same number of total possessions per minute.

via http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

SAS had more capable team defenders and a better defensive system than BOS last year. That's reflected in the team's overall DRTG. Couple that with TD's high rebounding numbers (11.9 per 36) and good shot blocking numbers (3.2 per 36), and it helps to give him a very good DRTG of 95.

KG had a Drtg of 99 (BOS as a team had a Drtg of 103.3). Where he falls behind TD is in rebounding (8.1 per 36) and blocked shots (1.1 per 36). Both categories definitely contribute to his lower overall DRTG than TD's.

Now, I'm not trying to argue that TD is a bad or even average defender. I think he's a very good defender, but I also think that KG is just as good of a individual/team defender but in areas where the box score stats don't show it like they do for TD.

Personally, I've always preferred DRAPM because the individual DRAPM is based on a comparison between the performance of one player and the performance of his teammates who replace him when he's on the bench as well as the performance of the league average replacement player.

According to DRAPM, TD was 6.3, while KG was 5.9 (which makes way more sense than their respective DRTG ratings).
http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2013.html

DRAPM is not perfect, but it's definitely better than individual DRTG.

Here is some rough draft individual defense synergy comparisons:

According to Synergy Sports, KG is allowing just 0.75 PPP (points per possession) [35.0%] to the offensive player he is guarding this season, which the 31st-best number in basketball and among the best in the NBA for players who primarily play center.

Duncan to limit opponents to shoot just 38 percent shooting in one-on-one situations (isolations and post-ups) according to Synergy Sports Technology

http://nba.si.com/2013/04/04/tim-duncan ... s-defense/

KG seems to overall have the slight edge over Duncan on defense in almost every stat. Duncan is the better scorer in nearly every stat.

Paradise wrote:

NyCeEvO wrote:When comparing players, individual Drtg should not be thrown around as an all-encompassing measure of how good that defender is.

Individual DRTG is markedly influenced by the team's overall defensive efficiency and it also benefits guys who put up good defensive box score numbers:

Out of necessity (owing to a lack of defensive data in the basic boxscore), individual Defensive Ratings are heavily influenced by the team's defensive efficiency. They assume that all teammates are equally good (per minute) at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, as well as assuming that all teammates face the same number of total possessions per minute.

via http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

SAS had more capable team defenders and a better defensive system than BOS last year. That's reflected in the team's overall DRTG. Couple that with TD's high rebounding numbers (11.9 per 36) and good shot blocking numbers (3.2 per 36), and it helps to give him a very good DRTG of 95.

KG had a Drtg of 99 (BOS as a team had a Drtg of 103.3). Where he falls behind TD is in rebounding (8.1 per 36) and blocked shots (1.1 per 36). Both categories definitely contribute to his lower overall DRTG than TD's.

Now, I'm not trying to argue that TD is a bad or even average defender. I think he's a very good defender, but I also think that KG is just as good of a individual/team defender but in areas where the box score stats don't show it like they do for TD.

Personally, I've always preferred DRAPM because the individual DRAPM is based on a comparison between the performance of one player and the performance of his teammates who replace him when he's on the bench as well as the performance of the league average replacement player.

According to DRAPM, TD was 6.3, while KG was 5.9 (which makes way more sense than their respective DRTG ratings).
http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2013.html

DRAPM is not perfect, but it's definitely better than individual DRTG.

Here is some rough draft individual defense synergy comparisons:

According to Synergy Sports, KG is allowing just 0.75 PPP (points per possession) [35.0%] to the offensive player he is guarding this season, which the 31st-best number in basketball and among the best in the NBA for players who primarily play center.

Duncan to limit opponents to shoot just 38 percent shooting in one-on-one situations (isolations and post-ups) according to Synergy Sports Technology

http://nba.si.com/2013/04/04/tim-duncan ... s-defense/

KG seems to overall have the slight edge over Duncan on defense in almost every stat. Duncan is the better scorer in nearly every stat.

Just want to point one little item out: Matchups very much matter. IMO the quality of the players Duncan was playing against in the west was better than those of the East. I could be off base, but one issue I have with those numbers in general is that the East and West are statistically different animals.

my 2 cents: TD was a better shot blocker, rebounder, post offense option and passer last season, KG was the better jump shooter.

It will be interesting seeing KG with more rest (like Duncan had). but last season KG was the lesser player. In fact, KG was not on any all-nba teams and was not on an all-defensive team.

I have to be honest: I am surprised that KG is probably going to come away with the #16 here. Speaking for myself, I would probably take LMA, Love over him at the pf and it would be a tough choice between him and Griffin/Lee (offense or defense?)

Again KG is a great player, and Kidd seems to have a plan to have play less so he is more like vintage KG in the post-season. Just last year Tim Duncan seemed to blow him out of the water.